硅谷居士搬运号

Micron releases astonishing financial report!

On March 18, 2026, chip giant Micron released an astonishing quarterly financial report.

Revenue reached $23.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 196%.

Net profit was $13.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 771%!

Net profit margin was 58%.

Imagine if you had invested just one dollar in the S&P 500 index in 1941. As time flows to 2026, this seemingly insignificant principal will achieve an astonishing leap of 12,745 times. Looking back over the past 85 years, the U.S. stock market has generated a total return of 1,274,500%, which means its average annual return has reached a considerable 11.7%.

Throughout these long years, the market has faced numerous trials, including the United States' direct involvement in several large-scale armed conflicts. These significant historical wars specifically include World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, as well as the Afghanistan War and the Iraq War.

From this historical perspective, when we turn our attention to the ongoing Iran War, it is evident that the overall scale of the current situation is completely incomparable to any of the major historical battles mentioned above.

New Release: "The Shortcut to Wealth 2026 Revised Edition" is now officially available

In the blink of an eye, this financial management masterpiece has been on the market for half a year. Thanks to everyone's support, this book has received a lot of praise since its release, with the current reader rating reaching 4.8 points.

In order to give back to your support and ensure the timeliness of the content, I have recently not only supplemented the latest relevant data throughout the book but also made extensive improvements and revisions to the original content.

Now, the latest version of the multilingual work is online, and you can obtain it through the address below according to your reading habits.

If you need the Simplified Chinese version of "The Shortcut to Wealth," please visit the following platforms:
Amazon: https://t.co/PnRkz5q91L
Google: https://t.co/KuThis41ge

The acquisition channels for the Traditional Chinese version of "財富捷徑" are as follows:
Amazon: https://t.co/5BZBJpXv8p
Google: https://t.co/EKnOli43Uz

In addition, the English version of "The Shortcut to Wealth" has also been updated simultaneously:
Amazon: https://t.co/E4WYKfDlI2
Google:

Has the Democratic Party's victory in the midterm elections become a foregone conclusion?

Although there are still more than seven months until the midterm elections officially arrive, the game surrounding control of Congress seems to have basically lost its suspense.

According to the latest monitoring data released by the Polymarket platform, the probability of the Democratic Party successfully regaining control of the House of Representatives has risen to 85%.

https://t.co/6SJaPSa6E0

Meanwhile, there are still some uncertainties regarding the Senate election situation. Even so, the probability of the Democratic Party winning the Senate has also reached 51%.

https://t.co/wCc7bwJTHc

In other words, the Republican Party's hope of simultaneously controlling both chambers of Congress is actually very slim, with only a 7.4% chance (=15% x 49%).

Will the Democratic Party secure victory in the midterm elections?

Although there are still more than 8 months until the midterm election day, the battle for control of Congress seems to have little suspense left.

According to the latest data indicators provided by the Polymarket platform, the probability of the Democratic Party regaining control of the House of Representatives has reached 85%.

https://t.co/6SJaPSa6E0

As for the competition situation in the Senate, it still appears unclear at the moment. However, even so, the probability of the Democratic Party successfully taking the Senate has reached 51%.

https://t.co/wCc7bwJTHc

Based on these two pieces of data, the chance of the Republican Party ultimately being able to control both houses of Congress has become extremely slim, standing at only 7.4% (i.e., 15% x 49%).

Will the Democratic Party secure a huge advantage in the upcoming midterm elections? Although there are still more than 8 months until the final vote, the direction of the battle for congressional seats has already become quite clear.

You can refer to the latest data released by the Polymarket platform, which indicates that the chances of the Democratic Party reclaiming the House of Representatives have reached 85%.
https://t.co/6SJaPSa6E0

Furthermore, predictions show that the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of the Senate has also reached 51%:
https://t.co/wCc7bwJTHc

Based on these indicators, the possibility of the Republican Party ultimately gaining full control of both chambers of Congress is only 7.4% (=15% x 49%).

Regarding Google's artificial intelligence evaluation of the Iranian war poetry

Not long ago, I gave an interesting instruction to Google's artificial intelligence system Gemini, asking her to compose a traditional seven-character quatrain against the backdrop of the current complex situation in Iran.

The model quickly provided her answer. Here, I present the original text of this work, inviting all readers to appreciate it together. I wonder what everyone thinks after reading it; at this stage, what level is AI's literary creation skill truly at?

Title: Persian Situation

Ten thousand miles of yellow sand obscure the sunset,
The lonely figure in the holy city faces the heavy door.
Power does not necessarily determine victory or defeat,
Half is smoke from gunfire, half is the trace of wine.

A Taste of the Iran War-Themed Yuanqu Created by Google's Artificial Intelligence

Not long ago, I assigned a rather clever task to Google's Gemini. I asked it to create a Yuanqu specifically based on the theme of the Iran War, following the metrical pattern of the classic song "Selling Flowers."

After reading the text it generated, I was deeply impressed and had to admit: this AI's profound accomplishments in classical literature and poetry creation have indeed far surpassed my personal level.

Below is the complete poem created by the artificial intelligence:

【Double Tune·Selling Flowers】· Reflections on the Persian Situation

The border once again stirs with yellow sand and fog,
Cold light slants on the exposed military cloak.
Power like a tiger contends in a dragon's chart.

An old monk strikes the bell,
A broken stele mourns the ancient,
In the end, it all counts as the rise and fall of numbers.

Exploring the Fusion of Technology and Tradition: A Song Dynasty Poem on the Theme of the Iran War Created by Google's Artificial Intelligence

Today I want to share an interesting attempt to combine modern technology with traditional culture. Recently, I tasked Gemini, Google's artificial intelligence assistant, with a culturally rich assignment, requiring it to create a Song Dynasty poem based on the theme of the Iran War, following the metrical pattern of the classic poem "Langtaosha."

What surprised and delighted me was that the AI produced a work of high quality; the poem not only closely aligns with the themes of the era but also exudes a strong classical charm and picturesque poetic imagery.

Below is the original text of the poem generated by AI:

"Langtaosha · The Situation in Persia"

The Gobi rolls with fierce sands, sword shadows intertwine. The ancient castle of the holy city reflects the remnants of the sunset. A thousand miles of borderland clouds are uncertain, where is home?

The game is as chaotic as hemp, chess pieces spread across the horizon. Who revisits old accounts to calculate the prosperity? How many matters arise from the clash of great powers, all reduced to withered tea.

Appreciating the Tang poem on the theme of the Iran conflict created by Google's Gemini

Some time ago, I made a special creative request to Google's AI assistant Gemini, asking it to tailor a traditional seven-character regulated verse based on the current war environment and complex dilemmas in Iran. After reviewing the final generated work, I must admit that today's artificial intelligence has already achieved remarkable proficiency in mastering classical regulated poetry, and the overall literary quality of this poem is indeed impressive.

The following is the specific poem titled "Reflections on the Situation in Iran":

The ancient Persian kingdom is in chaos,
A journey of thousands of miles stirs the evening dust.
The cold light of the Gobi shakes the shadow of the sword,
In the holy city, dark fires bind the cause of sorrow.
Always inviting eagles to spy on strongholds,
Always calculating the old neighbors before the cup.
The great power game ultimately leads to exhaustion,
Who sympathizes with the suffering of the border citizens?

This year, buying US stocks will definitely make a profit!

Recently, many readers have sent me private messages expressing their anxiety about market fluctuations.

Indeed, every midterm election year, US stocks seem to go through a 'midlife crisis,' with erratic market movements leaving many investors confused. Additionally, multiple ongoing wars in 2026 have exacerbated market volatility.

However, if you can look beyond the short-term noise and examine the historical long cycles of over 70 years, you will find that this kind of volatility is not only predictable but may also be a 'big gift package' from the market to rational investors.

1. The astonishing pattern of midterm election years

In the investment community, we often say, 'Risk is the uncertainty of the unknown.' For Wall Street and investors, the most disliked aspect is not bad news but 'uncertainty.'

Before the midterm election day, the market is often in a state of confusion: Will tax policies change? Will the regulatory environment tighten? Who has the final say in Congress? This sentiment is reflected in the market as severe fluctuations.

In fact, since 1950, the average maximum intraday drawdown in midterm election years has reached as high as 16% to 18%.

The logic behind this is very simple. This kind of volatility is essentially the market paying the price for 'uncertainty.' When funds cannot see a clear direction, they often choose to wait and even withdraw.

However, once we shift our focus to after the election day, the patterns presented by the data can only be described as 'astonishing.'

According to a review by Capital Group and several other investment banks, in the 19 midterm elections from 1950 to 2022, the S&P 500 index had an unbelievable win rate of 100% within one year after the election day! In non-midterm election years, the chance of the index gaining increased returns is 70%.

Additionally, in the year following the midterm election, the average increase of the S&P 500 index is about 18%, far exceeding the approximately 8% in non-midterm election years!

This means that over the past 70 years, regardless of whether you chose the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, as long as you bought the S&P 500 on election day and held it, you would earn a profit after one year, with an average return more than twice that of normal years.

2. Why is this pattern so robust?

You might be curious as to why there is such a reliable pattern.

As investors, we cannot just look at the data; we must understand the driving forces behind it. I believe there are a few main reasons.

-- Political gridlock is good for the market: When the White House and Congress are controlled by different parties (creating gridlock), it is difficult for the government to enact radical legislation that could severely change the business environment. For businesses, this kind of 'stability' is the best business environment.

-- The 'third-year effect' of the presidential cycle: The first year after the midterm election is usually the third year of the presidential term. In preparation for the upcoming general election, the current government often releases policy dividends or economic stimulus plans during this period, benefiting US stocks.

-- The elimination of uncertainty: Once the dust settles, regardless of the outcome, the market no longer needs to 'guess.' Funds re-enter the market to position themselves, and this certainty itself is the driving force for upward movements.

3. My financial advice

In the face of such historical patterns, how should we operate?

First, do not attempt to perfectly time the market. The so-called 'buy on election day' does not mean you need to fixate on the closing price of a specific trading day. Usually, the entire fourth quarter is a good time to position yourself.

Second, respect history, but do not be superstitious about it. In 2026, we may face a different macro environment, such as ongoing inflationary pressures or geopolitical risks. History does not simply repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

Finally, maintain patience for long-termism. Often, investment returns are not achieved through frequent trading, but by calmly sitting at the table based on common sense and data during market panic, adhering to our investment discipline, and continuing to invest in index funds.

I believe that as long as you continue to invest regularly and hold index funds for the long term, you will ultimately achieve excellent investment returns.

I personally still adhere to the habit of investing regularly every month and will not deliberately wait until the fourth quarter to increase my position.

Mojtaba's future path where to go

On February 28, 2026, a full-scale war broke out in Iran. On the very first day of the flames of war, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei unfortunately lost his life in the airstrikes by the US-Israeli coalition. Just a few days later, on March 8, 2026, the Iranian expert meeting officially elected Ali Khamenei's second son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, who is also widely known to the public as 'Little Khamenei'.

Even carrying the heavy burden of national grievances and quickly rising to the peak of power, the new leader faces an exceptionally harsh reality.

Firstly, he is confronted with a crisis that shakes the foundation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Looking back at the revolution of 1979, its core demand was to overthrow the hereditary system of the Pahlavi dynasty. Now, the theocratic regime has once again regressed to a power transfer model of 'father to son', which is undoubtedly a huge irony of the initial intention of that revolution.

Secondly, in Iran's complex power structure, the real backbone is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Although outsiders generally believe that Little Khamenei has formed a close bond with the senior leadership of the Revolutionary Guards, this alliance is actually extremely fragile. What the Revolutionary Guards truly need is a symbolic figure who can maintain their vast military powers and economic interests, rather than a hard-handed 'new emperor'. In such a drastically different era, it can be said that it is a very difficult task for Little Khamenei to regain the absolute authority that his father once possessed.

Meanwhile, the intensifying social contradictions within Iran are the most urgent problems he faces. In the hearts of ordinary people, Mojtaba is almost synonymous with the dark side of the system that they despise the most, representing the secret police, opaque operations, and privileged classes. Coupled with the long-standing international sanctions and repeatedly failed economic policies, public patience has reached its limit.

In terms of external environment, the international pressure that Little Khamenei faces is also devastating. Both the United States and Israel have publicly stated that they explicitly refuse to recognize any newly appointed 'Supreme Leader'. It is foreseeable that these two countries will inevitably look for opportunities to carry out assassination attempts against him.

Based on the above situation, regarding the ultimate fate of Little Khamenei, we can perhaps deduce three possible outcomes.

The first scenario is that he successfully inherits his father's legacy. With his father's political legacy and the strong support of the Revolutionary Guards, he may establish himself as a new generation of dictator, continuing to engage in fierce confrontation with the United States and Israel, and striving to reshape the Persian Empire's dominant position in the region.

The second scenario is a path of major reforms. This means he must completely reverse the fundamental national policy of Iran's theocratic regime, choosing to shake hands and make peace with Israel and the surrounding Arab countries, striving to transform Iran into a giant energy exporter similar to Saudi Arabia. However, in my opinion, the probability of this outcome is extremely low.

The third scenario is a quiet exit from the historical stage. Even if the Iranian people ultimately fail to successfully overthrow the existing theocratic regime, allowing Little Khamenei to temporarily stabilize his power, the United States and Israel can completely launch attacks at any future moment, using the same means they used against his father to end him.

It is worth noting that according to the prediction data on the Polymarket platform, as of the end of 2026, the probability of Little Khamenei losing his position as the Supreme Leader of Iran is as high as 64%.

https://t.co/aKxRBAFei9

What unique insights do you have about Little Khamenei's ultimate fate? We look forward to hearing everyone's discussions and sharing!

Regarding the topic of when little Khamenei might possibly shed the mantle of Supreme Leader, the prediction data on the Polymarket platform provides us with an intuitive reference. The current market betting situation shows that there is a 36% chance he will lose his leadership position by the end of April. If the observation period is extended to the end of this year, this predicted probability will rise to 61%. For more details, please refer to the following link.

https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by

Oracle's quarterly performance is strong

Oracle Corporation officially disclosed its latest quarterly financial status on March 10, 2026. The data shows that the company recorded revenue of $17.2 billion in this quarter, an increase of 22% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, net profit also achieved a year-on-year growth of 27%, reaching $3.7 billion.

Notably, the total value of AI computing power contracts to be fulfilled has surged to $553 billion, a staggering year-on-year increase of 325%. If estimated at an annual revenue scale of $100 billion, it would take more than 5 years to digest these backlog contract orders.

In the face of such huge order demand, the company has decided to issue bonds worth $50 billion for financing. This funding will mainly be used to increase investment in the AI computing power field, covering aspects such as chip procurement and data center construction. Additionally, Oracle has also stated that thanks to the assistance of AI programming tools, the work efficiency of its software engineers has significantly improved, and the quality of the delivered software has also reached a new level.

The discussion about the possibility of a breakthrough in the situation in Iran is heating up. According to the latest data feedback from Polymarket's predictive market, there has been a significant increase in the public's expectation that the conflict will come to an end by the end of April.

Data shows that the probability of the war ending by the end of April has now risen to 67%. This number has changed very quickly, as just two days ago, the likelihood of ending the conflict at that time was only 47%. This indicates that market sentiment is rapidly shifting towards a de-escalation of the situation.

https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by

Oil prices demonstrate a roller coaster market: first a surge followed by a sharp drop

On March 9th, the crude oil market initially showed considerable strength, with prices surging sharply. Intraday data indicated that WTI crude oil prices had reached a high of $119 per barrel.

In response to this situation, the G7 group of nations immediately stated that they would maintain stability in the international market by utilizing oil reserves. At the same time, France took substantive action, announcing the dispatch of an aircraft carrier and frigates to the Strait of Hormuz for escort missions.

As a result of these measures, the trend in crude oil prices quickly reversed, experiencing a significant pullback. By noon EST on March 9th, the WTI crude oil price had fallen back to $95.

Crude Oil Market Experiences Dramatic Fluctuations: Sharp Decline After Surge

On March 9, international oil prices experienced a rollercoaster-like trend, with WTI crude oil prices surging to a high of $119 per barrel at one point during the day. Immediately afterward, the G7 group announced it would utilize oil reserves to stabilize international market fluctuations; at the same time, France officially reported that it would dispatch an aircraft carrier and frigates to the Strait of Hormuz for escort missions. As a result of this series of news, crude oil prices subsequently plummeted. As of noon Eastern Time on March 9, WTI crude oil prices had fallen back to $95.

US gasoline prices surged significantly by 15% in a week

In the past week, US gasoline prices skyrocketed by 15%, reaching a level of $3.4 per gallon, equivalent to about 6.2 yuan per liter. During the same period, international crude oil prices also rose by 35%.

Which major countries do not regard International Women's Day on March 8th?

Although International Women's Day on March 8th is a globally recognized holiday by the United Nations, the degree of importance and holiday arrangements for this day vary greatly among countries due to historical backgrounds, cultural traditions, and political inclinations.

Among populous countries, many typically do not recognize March 8th as a statutory public holiday, and even the grassroots celebration atmosphere is relatively subdued.

Below, we will briefly introduce some of them.

1. United States

Status: Not a statutory holiday.

Although the United States is one of the origins of Women's Day (New York in 1909), the federal government currently does not grant a holiday. Americans are more inclined to designate the entire month of March as "Women's History Month."

More importantly, the early significance of this holiday had a strong socialist connotation, which was downplayed by mainstream American society during the Cold War.

2. India

Status: Not a statutory holiday.

Although Indian media and urban elites organize related activities, and women are beginning to value this day, for the vast majority of the Indian population, it is not a public holiday.

Some regions of India place more importance on local female-related festivals.

3. Japan

Status: Does not celebrate International Women's Day on March 8th.

Japanese society has little habit of celebrating March 8th.

However, Japan has a very famous festival on March 3rd called "Hinamatsuri" (also known as Girls' Day or Peach Blossom Festival), which is a grand holiday in Japanese tradition to pray for the healthy growth of girls.

4. Brazil

Status: Not a statutory holiday.

In Brazil, this is more a day of commercial and political declaration. People send flowers or hold gatherings to discuss women's rights, but society as a whole does not take a holiday.

5. Nigeria and Pakistan

Status: Not a statutory holiday.

Although these countries participate in related discussions at the international level, they do not establish a holiday at the national level. In Pakistan, in recent years, there has been an "Aurat March" (Women’s March), but it is accompanied by significant social controversy.

In contrast, some major countries celebrate International Women's Day on March 8th more ceremoniously.

1. China

Status: Statutory half-day holiday. However, this holiday is only for women.

2. Russia

Status: Extremely ceremonious. This is one of the most important statutory holidays in Russia, with a nationwide holiday, and men usually give flowers and gifts to female friends and relatives.

3. Vietnam

Status: Vietnam not only celebrates March 8th, but also has a local "Vietnamese Women’s Day" on October 20th. Both of these holidays are highly regarded.

What investors fear most is the uncertainty in the market and the severe volatility, which I deeply detest. In the face of the current situation, I am eager to know when this war will finally come to an end. Reflecting on February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States suddenly joined forces and unexpectedly launched a large-scale airstrike against Iran. Subsequently, Iran quickly retaliated, using drones and missiles to attack other countries in the Gulf, Israel's mainland, and U.S. military bases in the Middle East, leading to the full outbreak of the Iran war.

Just a week into the war, crude oil prices soared by 35%, and global financial markets plunged into panic, with major U.S. stock indices experiencing wild fluctuations akin to a roller coaster. Although I have a slight understanding of military history, the battlefield situation changes rapidly, and international politics is even more elusive; it is impossible for an individual to predict the exact end point of the war.

However, it is fortunate that we can leverage collective intelligence to assess the trajectory of such complex events, and the Polymarket website is currently one of the most trusted information sources. This platform allows users worldwide to place bets on various events with real money, and automatically calculates the probability of outcomes based on trading data from both sides. In previous years, this mechanism has accurately predicted many major international events, such as the recent U.S. raid on Iran, the U.S. invasion of Venezuela in 2026, and the U.S. presidential election in 2024.

On Polymarket, there is currently a prediction market about when the U.S. and Iran will reach a ceasefire agreement. As of now, the total amount bet by participants has reached approximately $15 million. According to the latest data shown on the website on March 6, 2026, the probabilities of reaching a ceasefire at different time points are as follows: 11% by March 15, rising to 28% by March 31, 47% by April 30, 58% by May 31, and 68% by June 30.

If we use collective intelligence as a basis for judgment, we can infer that the war is highly likely to end before the end of May. In addition, the website has also set up another intriguing bet regarding when the U.S. will send ground troops into Iran. Current data shows that the probability of U.S. troops entering Iran by the end of the year is 62%. Although collective predictions are not absolutely accurate and there are times when they fail, they do provide us with a highly valuable reference point to help us formulate wiser financial strategies amid turmoil.