硅谷居士搬运号

Review of 2022: The Bear Market That Left a Lasting Impression

As Mark Twain once said, history does not simply repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Looking back at 2022, the global capital markets experienced an epic shock, a turmoil significant enough to be recorded in financial history. The catalyst for all this was the sudden outbreak of the Continental War in February that year, the largest military conflict Europe has been involved in since World War II. This black swan event not only severely impacted the global financial system but also directly led to the U.S. stock market entering a prolonged bear market lasting nine months. As a firsthand witness of this historical period, I would like to share some personal investment insights by reviewing the market trends of that year.

1. Market Review: From Geopolitical Crisis to Valuation Rebuilding

The stock market in 2022 did not fall in a straight line but went through several distinct phases. Early in the year, as tensions in Europe escalated, market sentiment began to weaken, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices gradually sliding from their peaks. When news of the full-scale outbreak of war spread worldwide on February 24, panic led to the stock market declining for several weeks in a row.

The situation did not develop as quickly as people had hoped; the stalemate of the war caused commodity prices to spiral out of control. At that time, oil prices briefly broke through the $130 per barrel mark, and wheat prices hit record highs. This supply-side shock quickly triggered severe input inflation on a global scale. To curb runaway inflation, the Federal Reserve was forced to implement an unprecedented aggressive rate hike. The market's negative logic then shifted from initial war panic to a sharp contraction in valuations due to soaring interest rates.

After repeated bottoming and fluctuations, the stock market finally reached its lowest point of this cycle on October 12, and then slowly began to recover. Statistics show that this bear market lasted over nine months. During this period, the maximum drawdown of the S&P 500 index reached 25%, while the Nasdaq 100 index saw a decline of up to 35%.

2. Investment Records: Panic and Opportunity Coexist

Since the beginning of 2022, I have been guiding many friends and relatives in China to allocate investments in U.S. stock funds through WeChat groups. The vast majority of them were novices in the stock market, lacking experience in dealing with bear markets, and unfortunately faced this stock disaster head-on. In the face of account shrinkage, many fell into extreme anxiety, repeatedly asking me whether they should cut losses or stop investing.

In response to this panic, I earnestly advised everyone to maintain confidence in the U.S. stock market, stick to a systematic investment strategy, and constantly referred to historical data to encourage them. Fortunately, the vast majority of friends and relatives, trusting me, chose to hold on. This perseverance reaped substantial rewards in the following years. Data shows that if one had consistently invested monthly in the S&P 500 index fund since early 2022, by early 2026, the annualized return would have reached 19.6%; if it was the Nasdaq 100 index fund, the annualized return would even be as high as 24.0%. As the saying goes, "When you reach the end of the road, you might find a new path," having gone through this baptism, my friends and relatives gained confidence and began to allocate more family assets to U.S. stock funds.

Unlike the anxiety of novices, having personally experienced the more severe market crashes of 2008 and 2020, the decline in 2022 was not frightening to me; rather, it represented a rare opportunity. I chose to go against the trend and, in mid-2022, refinanced through the bank to expand my mortgage scale, successfully raising over one million dollars.

I invested this capital in one go into the information technology sector fund VGT. By early 2026, after deducting interest costs, the net profit from this bottom-fishing operation was about 130%.

3. Conclusion

Although the stock disaster of 2022 is less than four years old, the various changes that occurred during that time feel as if they happened long ago. We look back at history not only to gain knowledge but to derive wisdom, which encompasses both life philosophy and investment principles. That stock disaster and my personal experience deeply made me realize the fragility and diversity of the ordinary investor's mindset, and taught me to face future market fluctuations with a more composed attitude.

I hope my review can inspire you. If you wish to learn more about my investment philosophy and experiences, feel free to visit the Amazon website or Google Play Books to purchase and read my Chinese financial book "Wealth Shortcut," or its English version "The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence."

The cryptocurrency market is facing strong headwinds, and the nomination of Kevin Warsh has triggered turbulence.

With the White House officially nominating Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, combined with the ongoing geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East, the global cryptocurrency market is under severe downward pressure. Over the past weekend, mainstream cryptocurrencies represented by Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced dramatic price corrections.

As of February 1, the cryptocurrency sector underwent a brutal cleansing within just 24 hours. The price of Bitcoin fell sharply, with intraday declines exceeding 7%, and the lowest transaction price reached $76,000. This price level has retraced about 38% compared to the peak of $126,000 set in October 2025.

Meanwhile, Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also did not escape, with a decline exceeding 11%, and the price dropping to a low of $2,256. Calculating from last year's peak, its cumulative decline has surpassed 50%.

Data from Coinglass reveals the brutal side of the market: in the recent 24 hours, the total amount of liquidations across all cryptocurrency contracts exceeded $2.5 billion, involving as many as 420,000 people. Notably, over 90% of these liquidations were long positions.

Considering that Kevin Warsh's term as chairman will last at least four years, market analysts believe that the price performance of cryptocurrencies is likely to remain under pressure in the coming years.

Looking Back at 2020: Experiencing the Epic Financial Shock

In early 2020, the global capital markets seemed to be on a runaway rollercoaster. In just one month, the U.S. stock market astonishingly triggered the circuit breaker mechanism four times, plunging global stock markets into the depths of a technical bear market. This crisis came on suddenly, and the speed of the subsequent rebound was equally surprising. As an investor who experienced that stock market crash, I want to take everyone back through that thrilling history and share the financial wisdom gained from it.

1. The Darkest Hour Etched in History

The culprit behind the 2020 stock market crash was a sudden black swan event that swept the world, leading to a breakdown of global supply chains and an instant halt to offline consumption. By March, the U.S. stock market faced the darkest ten days in history, with the following iconic moments still fresh in memory:

On March 9, the S&P 500 index plunged by 7.6%. This was the second time in U.S. stock market history that the circuit breaker was triggered, with the last instance dating back to the Asian financial crisis in October 1997.

Following this was March 12, when the European and American stock markets crashed again. The Dow Jones index plummeted by 9.99%, marking the largest single-day drop since Black Monday in 1987; the S&P 500 index also fell by 9.5% on the same day, triggering the circuit breaker once more.

On March 16, panic spread further, with the VIX fear index soaring to historical peaks, and the S&P 500 index again fell sharply by 12%, triggering the circuit breaker once again.

By March 18, the S&P 500 index dropped by 7.01% during the day, marking the fourth time the circuit breaker was triggered that month.

Until March 23, the market hit bottom, with the S&P 500 index evaporating about 34% of its market value in less than a month. However, the subsequent rebound was equally rapid, making this bear market, which lasted only 33 days, the shortest in history.

During the most panicked moments in the market, many friends privately messaged me: "Should I sell the stocks I have to avoid risks?" My answer was firm: "I am not a fool; this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy the dip." Thanks to the U.S. IRS allowing a six-month extension for tax filing in March 2020, I invested all the cash originally set aside for tax payments, along with funds from redeeming bond funds, into the stock market to buy the dip.

2. The Strong Intervention of the White Knight

In the face of this once-in-a-century economic halt and stock disaster, governments and central banks around the world transformed into white knights, decisively launching money-printing measures.

The Federal Reserve responded swiftly, immediately implementing an emergency interest rate cut, lowering rates to the lowest range of 0% to 0.25%. At the same time, the Federal Reserve began an unlimited quantitative easing policy, promising to provide unlimited liquidity support, not only purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities but also unprecedentedly starting to buy corporate bonds.

On the fiscal policy front, the U.S. government introduced an unprecedented rescue plan. Congress swiftly passed a $2.2 trillion relief bill, which included measures such as direct checks to the public and loan support for small businesses. Other countries also followed suit.

These strong measures produced immediate effects, leading to a V-shaped market rebound. On April 8, 2020, the S&P 500 index returned to the embrace of a bull market. From an annual perspective, the S&P 500 index achieved an annual return of 18.4%, while the Nasdaq 100 index's return soared to 47.5%.

3. The Far-reaching Imprints Left by the Crisis

The black swan event and the resulting stock market crash had multiple far-reaching impacts.

First was the severe economic recession and wave of unemployment. The global economy fell into its worst recession since the 1930s, with the U.S. unemployment rate soaring to 14.7% at one point.

Second, industry performance displayed a stark contrast. Technology sectors such as the internet and biomedicine surged against the trend during the pandemic, while traditional industries like aviation, hotels, and offline retail suffered devastating blows.

Moreover, the government’s massive money-printing measures also laid the groundwork for inflation risks. Large-scale currency overproduction directly led to high inflation issues worldwide from 2021 to 2023.

Lastly, the work-from-home model became increasingly popular. This not only fundamentally changed the operational methods of many businesses but also had a profound impact on the commercial and residential real estate markets.

4. Essential Lessons for Investors

Looking back at this history, what can we learn?

First, effective risk management is key to maintaining composure. If your income sources are unstable, you must allocate a certain amount of low-risk assets, such as bank deposits or short-term government bonds, to serve as emergency reserves for your household, thereby reducing the overall volatility of your investment portfolio.

Second, strictly adhere to investment discipline and refrain from selling off assets in panic. History has repeatedly demonstrated that the sharper the market decline, the more intense the rebound often is. If you had chosen to exit the market in mid-March 2020, you would have regrettably missed the subsequent years of bull market.

Finally, we need to have strong conviction and believe that the U.S. stock index will eventually rebound. In times of widespread market despair and anxiety, this belief is particularly valuable. It has been proven that thanks to the strong rebound of U.S. stocks, the investments I made by buying the dip in March 2020 yielded about 50% returns by the end of the year.

If you wish to delve deeper into my investment and financial management experiences and insights, feel free to visit Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese financial book "Shortcut to Wealth," or its English version "The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence."

The bubble in the gold and silver markets ultimately could not escape, leading to a broken conclusion.

Looking back at my views expressed three days ago, I analyzed several major speculative assets and concluded that among Bitcoin, gold, and silver, silver faced the greatest bubble risk, with gold following closely, while Bitcoin's bubble degree was relatively the smallest.

As of January 30, 2026, with the White House officially nominating a new Federal Reserve chairman, market sentiment was severely hit, plunging into a wail. If we observe from the recent market peak, the trends of related assets indeed experienced a terrifying round of sharp corrections: Bitcoin fell by about 35%, gold dropped by about 13%, while silver's decline reached about 30%. The current market performance seems to strongly validate the rationality of my previous analysis.

As a firm investor who chooses to allocate all capital to stock index funds, my principle is to resolutely avoid any investment targets that cannot generate cash flow, and the aforementioned types of products fall into this category. Essentially, they belong to purely speculative tools, and their price volatility can sometimes exceed that of stock indices. However, from a long-term perspective, the annualized return of these assets typically does not exceed 7%, a figure far below the approximately 11% performance of the S&P 500 index, and cannot be compared with the long-term return of about 14% of the Nasdaq 100 index.

Taking the historical trend of gold as an example, its price peaked in 1980, after which it entered a long downward cycle, until 28 years later in 2008, when gold prices barely broke through the previous high. During this long waiting period, holders could neither earn interest income nor receive any dividend distribution.

Finally, the bubble in the gold and silver markets has burst. Just three days ago, I asserted that among speculative assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver, silver had the most severe bubble, followed closely by gold, while Bitcoin's bubble was relatively the smallest.

As of January 30, 2026, with the White House nominating a new chairperson for the Federal Reserve, market sentiment plummeted. Looking back at the drawdowns from recent highs across various assets, the data is shocking: Bitcoin plunged about 35%, silver crashed about 30%, and gold also declined about 13%. This result seems to confirm my previous analysis and judgment.

As an investor who has allocated all positions to stock index funds, I always adhere to one principle: I resolutely avoid any assets that cannot generate cash flow, and the aforementioned products naturally fall within this category. In my view, they are purely speculative tools, and their price volatility sometimes even exceeds that of stock indices. However, from a long-term return perspective, the annualized returns of these assets often do not exceed 7%, which is significantly lower compared to the approximately 11% return of the S&P 500 index, and cannot be compared to the approximately 14% performance of the Nasdaq 100 index.

For example, according to historical data, gold prices peaked in 1980 and then began a long decline, only breaking the previous high again 28 years later in 2008. During this lengthy waiting period, holders not only faced a reduction in principal but also did not receive any interest or dividend income.

On January 30, 2026, as the White House officially nominated the new Federal Reserve Chair, financial markets fell into a panic, with various asset prices experiencing severe fluctuations. Looking back at the retracement of each investment type from recent highs, the data is alarming: Bitcoin plummeted by about 35%, silver plunged by about 30%, and gold recorded a drop of about 13%.

This market performance reminds me of the analysis I conducted two days ago. At that time, I pointed out that among speculative assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver, silver showed the most severe degree of bubbling, followed closely by gold, while Bitcoin was relatively lighter. The current market trend seems to just validate the reasonableness of this viewpoint.

As a staunch investor in fully-stocked index funds, I always hold a negative attitude towards any asset that cannot generate cash flow, including the aforementioned types. Essentially, they belong to purely speculative products, whose price fluctuations sometimes even exceed those of stock indices, but lack attractiveness in long-term returns. Statistics show that the long-term annualized return of such assets does not exceed 7%, which is not only far inferior to the approximately 11% performance of the S&P 500 index, but also significantly lower than the approximately 14% return of the Nasdaq 100 index.

Historical data often provides us with profound insights. Taking gold as an example, its price fell into a long-term downward trend after peaking in 1980, only breaking through that year's high again 28 years later in 2008. During this long cycle, investors could neither enjoy asset appreciation nor receive a penny in interest or dividend returns, which is precisely the pain point of investing in non-cash flow assets.

With the White House officially announcing the nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, today's financial markets experienced severe volatility, which also means that the overvaluation bubbles of gold and silver have finally begun to burst.

You may recall that I shared a viewpoint on asset valuation a few days ago. At that time, I clearly pointed out that when comparing silver, gold, and Bitcoin, the bubble risk accumulated by silver was the largest, followed closely by gold, while Bitcoin had the smallest bubble component.

This judgment has now been strongly validated by market trends. According to the latest data as of January 30, 2026, at noon Eastern Time, the performance of various assets is as follows: silver prices suffered a sharp decline, plummeting by about 24%; gold also recorded a drop of about 9%; in contrast, Bitcoin only fell by 1.35%. This series of data fully demonstrates that my previous analysis was completely valid.

As soon as the news of the nomination of the new Federal Reserve chairman from the White House broke, today's financial markets immediately plunged into severe turmoil, marking the final collapse of the valuation bubbles for gold and silver. Reflecting on the views I shared with everyone a few days ago: when comparing these core asset classes, I believe that the implied bubble risk in silver is the highest, followed by gold, while the bubble component in Bitcoin is the smallest. The current market trends strongly confirm this logic. According to the latest data as of January 30, 2026, at noon Eastern Time, the performance of various assets shows significant differences: silver prices suffered a heavy blow, plummeting about 24%; gold was not spared either, dropping about 9%; in contrast, Bitcoin's performance was the most stable, with only a recorded decline of 1.35%. The previous analysis direction has proven to be completely correct.

On January 30, 2026, ExxonMobil, the world's second-largest oil giant, officially released its financial report for the fourth quarter. Due to the downward trend in international oil prices, the company's revenue performance was slightly weak, recording a total income of $82.3 billion, a slight decrease of 1% compared to the same period last year. In terms of net profit, the figure was $6.5 billion, with a year-on-year reduction of 14%, and the net profit margin for the quarter was set at 7.9%.

Looking back at the entire year's performance, ExxonMobil achieved a cumulative net profit of $28.8 billion, equivalent to approximately 201.6 billion yuan. It is worth noting that the company has about 60,000 employees worldwide. Based on this calculation, its per capita efficiency is quite impressive, with each employee contributing a net profit of $480,000 per year, equivalent to 3.36 million yuan.

To provide a more intuitive reflection of this data, we turn our attention to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the largest oil company in China. CNPC's annual net profit is 165 billion yuan, but its workforce is even larger, reaching 370,000 employees. After calculation, CNPC's per capita net profit is 440,000 yuan. In comparison, ExxonMobil's per capita profitability is 7.6 times that of CNPC.

From a historical perspective, ExxonMobil is also an important component of the S&P 500 index, with its founding year dating back to 1882, making it 144 years old today. Currently, the market value of this old energy giant remains around $600 billion, holding the 14th position in the list of corporate market values in the United States.

Apple Inc. Releases Overview of Latest Quarterly Performance

As a leading company in the global consumer electronics and smartphone industry, Apple Inc. officially disclosed its financial report for the fourth quarter on January 29, 2026.

The financial report shows that the company's total revenue for the quarter reached $143.7 billion, an increase of 16% compared to the same period last year. In terms of business segments, the performance of the iPhone series products was particularly impressive, with revenue skyrocketing by 23%. Notably, the Greater China market experienced a strong recovery in this quarter, with revenue soaring by 38%, successfully returning to a growth trajectory.

In terms of profitability, Apple Inc. recorded a net profit of $42.1 billion this quarter, with a year-on-year growth rate also reaching 16%, and the net profit margin maintained at 29.3%. Looking back over the past year, the company achieved a cumulative net profit of $116 billion (approximately 812 billion RMB).

Currently, Apple Inc. has a global workforce of about 170,000 people. Based on annual profit data, this means each employee generates a net profit of $680,000 (approximately 4.76 million RMB) for the company each year, demonstrating extremely high employee efficiency.

Founded in 1976, this tech giant currently has a market value of about $3.8 trillion, ranking 3rd among publicly traded companies in the United States. At the same time, Apple is also an important component of the S&P 500 index and the NASDAQ 100 index.

In terms of its business landscape, Apple Inc. has built an ecosystem that combines software and hardware with online services. Its core hardware product line includes the iPhone, iPad, Mac computers, Apple Watch smartwatches, AirPods headphones, and Apple Vision Pro headsets. Additionally, the company has developed operating systems such as iOS and macOS, and operates several key services including the App Store, Apple Music, and iCloud.

The global digital payment technology giant Visa officially disclosed its fourth quarter financial report on January 29, 2026. According to this latest financial report data, Visa's performance this quarter was very strong, with total revenue reaching 10.9 billion dollars, a 15% increase compared to the same period last year.

In terms of profitability, the company's net profit for the quarter was recorded at 5.9 billion dollars, a year-on-year growth of 14%. It is worth mentioning that Visa's net profit margin reached 54%, an astonishing ratio that makes it one of the companies with the highest net profit margins among publicly traded companies in the United States. If the time span is extended to the past year, the company has achieved a cumulative net profit of 20.5 billion dollars, approximately 143 billion yuan.

In terms of human efficiency, Visa currently has about 34,000 employees worldwide. Based on this calculation, the average net profit created by each employee for the company per year is as high as 600,000 dollars, equivalent to 4.2 million yuan.

As an established enterprise founded in 1958, Visa is now an important component of the S&P 500 index. Currently, the company's market value is approximately 640 billion dollars, ranking 13th among domestic companies in the United States.

The core of Visa's business lies in its operation of the VisaNet payment network, which is primarily responsible for connecting consumers, merchants, financial institutions, and government departments, providing efficient payment processing services. As of now, there are about 5 billion credit and debit cards issued jointly by Visa and various financial institutions circulating worldwide.

As a leader in the global social networking industry, Meta announced its fourth-quarter financial report on January 28, 2026, with impressive performance. Data shows that the company's total revenue for the quarter rose to $59.9 billion, achieving a year-on-year growth of 24%. In terms of profit, the net profit for the fourth quarter reached $22.8 billion, an increase of 9% compared to the same period last year, with a net profit margin of 38.1%.

Looking back over the past year, Meta achieved a total net profit of $60.5 billion, which is approximately 423.5 billion yuan when converted. It is worth mentioning that considering Meta's total global workforce of about 79,000 people, its per capita output efficiency is extremely high, with an average net profit contribution of $760,000 per employee per year, equivalent to about 5.32 million yuan.

Founded in 2004, this tech giant currently has a market capitalization of approximately $1.95 trillion, ranking sixth in the U.S. corporate market capitalization list, and is also a component of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices.

In terms of its business scope, Meta mainly relies on its strong suite of applications and Reality Labs, the former includes core social platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Threads. In addition, the company continues to delve into the fields of artificial intelligence and the metaverse, actively deploying cutting-edge technology products such as the Quest series of VR headsets and the Meta AI assistant.

Profit shrinks significantly by 61%: Tesla discloses fourth quarter financial status

As a leader in the global automotive industry, Tesla Inc. publicly announced its fourth quarter financial report on January 28, 2026, with data that drew attention.

From a revenue perspective, the company's total revenue for the quarter was $28.1 billion, a decline of 3% compared to the same period last year. Analyzing its core business, a 5% reduction in vehicle production directly led to an 11% year-on-year decrease in automotive sales revenue. In terms of profitability, all indicators faced pressure, with the net profit for the quarter being only $840 million, a staggering decline of 61% year-on-year, which also caused the net profit margin for the period to drop to 3.0%.

Looking back at the performance over the past year, Tesla achieved a total net profit of $4.8 billion, equivalent to approximately 33.6 billion yuan. Considering the company has a large team of around 120,000 employees worldwide, calculations show that each employee generated an average net profit of $40,000 per year, which translates to about 280,000 yuan.

Founded in 2003, the company currently maintains a market value of around $1.4 trillion, ranking 8th among U.S. publicly traded companies by market capitalization. In addition to being an important component of the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index, Tesla's business scope is also quite extensive. Its core product line includes not only the well-known electric vehicles but also encompasses cutting-edge fields such as robotics, autonomous driving software, solar products, and energy storage systems.

The global software industry leader Microsoft Corporation has delivered an impressive report card, with profits achieving an astonishing growth of 60%. According to the fourth quarter financial report released on January 28, 2026, Microsoft’s total revenue for the quarter reached $81.3 billion, a 17% increase compared to the same period last year. More notably, the company's net profit soared to $38.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60%, with a net profit margin reaching 47.4%.

From an annual perspective, Microsoft accumulated a net profit of $105 billion over the past year, which is approximately 735 billion RMB. Currently, Microsoft has a total of about 220,000 employees worldwide. Based on this calculation, its employee productivity level is quite remarkable, with each employee generating an average net profit of $480,000 per year, equivalent to about 3.36 million RMB.

This established tech giant, founded in 1975, still maintains strong market competitiveness. As a component of the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ-100 Index, Microsoft's current market capitalization is approximately $3.46 trillion, ranking 4th among all companies in the United States.

In terms of business layout, Microsoft has a wide coverage across various fields including gaming, smart hardware, operating systems, office software, and cloud computing. Its core product matrix not only includes the well-known Windows operating system and the 365 office suite but also encompasses Azure cloud services, the Xbox gaming ecosystem, Surface series devices, LinkedIn social platform, and various cutting-edge AI applications.

Which asset hides the biggest bubble? The answer may surprise you; it is not Bitcoin.

Let's analyze this through specific data comparisons. First, Bitcoin's mining cost is roughly $56,000, compared to a market price of about $88,000, resulting in a difference of only 1.6 times.

Now let's look at the energy sector, where the situation for crude oil is quite different. The extraction cost in the United States is about $28 per barrel, while in the Middle East it is as low as $10 to $15. On the international market, the price of crude oil is about $62 per barrel, which widens the price-to-cost difference to between 2.2 and 6 times.

In terms of precious metals, the mining cost of gold is about $1,500 per ounce, while the corresponding international market price is as high as about $5,100, resulting in a price difference of 3.4 times.

The premium for silver is even more pronounced, with a mining cost of only around $20 per ounce, but the international market price is approximately $100, leading to a price-to-cost ratio of as much as 5 times.

Everyone is discussing which asset has the most serious bubble phenomenon; surprisingly, the answer is not Bitcoin. Let's compare a set of specific cost and market price data.

First, let's look at Bitcoin, which currently has a mining cost of about $56,000, while the market trading price is around $88,000. The calculation shows that the gap between the two is only 1.6 times.

Next, let's turn our attention to the crude oil market. The extraction cost of crude oil in the United States is about $28 per barrel, while in the Middle East, it is about $15. However, its international market price has reached about $62 per barrel. This means that the selling price has reached 2.2 to 3.5 times the cost.

The premium in the precious metals sector is even more significant. The extraction cost of gold is about $1,500 per ounce, but the international market quote is as high as about $5,100, with a gap of 3.4 times.

The most extreme gap is in silver. Its extraction cost is only about $20 per ounce, but the international market price is at a high of about $100, making the selling price a full 5 times the cost.

Everyone is discussing which type of asset has the most serious bubble, and it is quite surprising that this title does not belong to Bitcoin. We can take a look at the production costs of various assets compared to the current market prices to explore this further.

First, let's look at Bitcoin, whose current mining cost is approximately $56,000, while the market trading price is around $88,000. Compared to each other, the premium multiple is only 1.6 times.

Next, we look at the crude oil market, where international oil prices are currently maintained at about $62 per barrel. In contrast, the extraction cost in the United States is about $28 per barrel, while in the Middle East it is about $15. Calculating this, the difference between its selling price and cost is between 2.2 times and 3.5 times.

The premium in the precious metals sector is even more obvious. Taking gold as an example, the extraction cost per ounce is about $1,500, but the international market price has reached about $5,100, showing a difference of 3.4 times.

The biggest difference is with silver, whose extraction cost is about $20 per ounce, but the international market quote is as high as about $100, resulting in a multiple difference of up to 5 times.

Which asset has the most exaggerated premium? After comparison, Bitcoin is surprisingly not the biggest bubble.

Let's first look at Bitcoin's data, its comprehensive mining cost is currently around $56,000, while the trading price in the secondary market is about $88,000, resulting in a premium of only 1.6 times.

Next, let's analyze the crude oil market. The cost of producing a barrel of crude oil in the United States is about $28, while the cost in the Middle East is even lower, around $15. Based on the international market price of $62 per barrel, its selling price is already 2.2 to 3.5 times the cost.

In the precious metals sector, the mining cost of gold is about $1,500 per ounce, but the international market quote reaches around $5,100, which is a premium of 3.4 times.

The most significant disparity is in silver, with a mining cost of only $20 per ounce, while the market price is around $100, leading to a selling price that is 5 times the cost.

When it comes to asset bubbles, many people's first reaction is often Bitcoin, but comparing production costs with market prices, the facts may surprise you.

Let's first take a look at Bitcoin. Currently, its mining cost is about $56,000, while the market price maintains at $88,000, and the premium multiple between the two is actually only 1.6 times.

In contrast, how do traditional bulk commodities perform? Taking crude oil as an example, the extraction cost in the United States is about $28 per barrel, while the cost in the Middle East is even lower, around $15. Referring to the international market price of $62 per barrel, its selling price is already 2.2 to 3.5 times the cost.

Now let's turn our attention to precious metals. The extraction cost of gold is roughly $1,500 per ounce, but the trading price in the international market has reached $5,100, which means the price is 3.4 times the cost.

The most exaggerated is silver, whose extraction cost is only about $20 per ounce, but the market price has reached $100, with a gap of up to 5 times.

The Grim Reality of Profit Data for Chinese Industrial Enterprises in 2025

Looking back at the full-year data for 2025, the performance of China's large-scale industrial enterprises is far from ideal, with a total profit of 73982 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of only 0.6%.

Among the segmented data of various types of enterprises, foreign and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan-invested enterprises are one of the few bright spots, achieving a total profit of 17447 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year. Private enterprises have maintained the status quo, with a total profit of 22810 billion yuan, unchanged compared to the previous year.

However, other types of enterprises are facing varying degrees of pressure. Joint-stock enterprises achieved a total profit of 55408 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year. State-owned holding enterprises continue to be the biggest drag, with a total profit of 20561 billion yuan, a decline of as much as 3.9%, continuing their traditionally sluggish performance.

It must be acknowledged that, faced with such a lackluster profit growth report, it is entirely impossible to use this as a foundation to support the A-share market out of a bull market.