分析师舒琴

The decline has started.

Time for the cryptocurrency market is running out... Powell is about to launch an attack!
Don't think that a rate cut means everything is fine; the more terrifying part will be Powell's speech. This rate cut can be said to have been forced; Powell previously stated he did not wish to cut rates, so after the rate cut at 3 AM on Thursday, Powell will deliver a speech at 3:30 AM, likely very hawkish, paving the way for not cutting rates next time, which will scare the market.
Because after next week's rate cut, the interest rate will reach the neutral rate of 3.5%, not much different from historically normal rates, and it no longer counts as a restrictive rate. In contrast, inflation is still rising, already at 3%, far above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, and the economy remains relatively strong, so the Federal Reserve actually has no reason to continue cutting rates, which has also been Powell's earlier viewpoint.
Therefore, I expect that after next week's rate cut, the market may start to plummet rapidly and undergo a correction for a while; everyone should be well-prepared. Personally, I am positioning myself with double long positions on high, and coupled with the bearish market environment, I believe the odds are greatly in my favor. If you prefer to be cautious, then do not trade; just wait to buy the dip after next year's crash, because the situation will start to improve in the second half of next year, and Trump will appoint a new chairperson to implement aggressive rate cuts, then the water will come, and the market will start to rise, potentially entering a major upward cycle lasting 3-5 years.
So the next six months can be said to be the darkness before dawn; the bull market is just tired, taking a half-year vacation, and in the second half of next year will return to work. Everyone stay alert, and let's work together with Benqin to navigate this market and rewrite our destiny!

Here it comes! The latest inflation data from the U.S. PCE has been released, will this be good news? Everyone, check the chart!
This PCE data meets expectations! This core PCE data also meets expectations! Additionally, there is the Consumer Confidence Index, which is not as important but can also be referenced.
Market rise and fall logic: PCE inflation lower than expected is good news, higher than expected is bad news. If it meets expectations, then it has no significant impact.

Successful shorting of Ethereum? What should we do next? ZEC has rebounded by 30%! Let's talk about the next steps.

First, regarding Ethereum, around 3250 is indeed a high-pressure point. The price dropped immediately by 7% to 3060 after reaching this point, falling very quickly. However, we shouldn't be complacent, as there are still 5 days until the interest rate cut, and it's possible that the price could make a second peak, or it might, albeit with low probability, reach around 3400.

So if you're positioning for the long term, you can hold on as originally planned, and short the remaining position the day before the interest rate cut, entering in batches. After the interest rate cut, the price will gradually start to decline. If you're trading short-term, you can take profits on dips and short again before the interest rate cut as well. Also, don't forget that tonight at 11 PM, the PCE inflation data will be released, which may cause unexpected volatility. I will report the results to everyone as soon as possible, so remember to follow me~

Also, the ZEC rebound that Shuqin mentioned in the past few days has indeed taken off, rebounding 30% from 300. You can aggressively short near 460, although there is a bit of resistance around 420, which you can try; it's best to enter in batches.

Additionally, the BCH and WLFI mentioned earlier have also dropped quite a bit recently, which I have discussed before. As shown in the image, I took a screenshot when I took profits early this morning, which includes these few coins. I made 100,000 in one night, very quickly, operating together every day~

Bitcoin skyrocketed, is there an opportunity to operate? BCH is worth a try!
I wonder if everyone has noticed that BCH has quietly broken through the neckline of 570, and it currently has a good chance of reaching the previous high of 620-640 in this cycle. There is strong resistance here, as it is the peak from previous times. I feel that it will likely retrace significantly when it gets here.

Even shorting here is likely to be at the highest point, because small coins in the crypto market have generally halved, and BCH is approaching its historical peak, making it very worthwhile to short. Shorting near the previous high, even if the situation doesn't reverse, the resistance there is significant, and at least there will be a large retracement. $BCH

So everyone must pay attention to the area near BCH's previous high, still a 1x long position, it won't lead to liquidation, and even if there is a false breakout, there's no need to worry. If you're in a losing position, just hold on, it will eventually come down and start making a profit. It took us three weeks to short ZEC, and BCH may not drop quickly either, patience is key. $ZEC

Recently, Bitcoin's rebound has been quite strong, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut as a catalyst. Shu Qin had not allowed everyone to short mainstream coins before the rate cut, considering this day. So even though the sudden interest rate hike in Japan a couple of days ago disrupted the rhythm a bit, we were all encouraging everyone to buy at the bottom, and it seems the direction was not wrong. $BTC

Currently, Bitcoin's small resistance is around 93,000, and it has already reached this point, so it can be time to exit some positions. Of course, the most ideal position is still 97,000-98,000. There is still a week until the rate cut, so we can observe. If it reaches that point, I will definitely short. If it doesn't reach there, that's fine too; we can short long positions 1-2 days before the rate cut at the current price. By then, the crypto market will have fully priced in the good news, and there could be a correction of 10-20% or even more. I think this is the biggest opportunity, everyone should seize it, and let's operate vigorously with Ben Qin~

ZEC is skyrocketing! The whole family is praying for ZEC, hurry up and rebound, the whole family is waiting for you to treat us to a feast... The ideal short position is close to around 500, and there is also a small resistance around ZEC 420, so please pay attention. $ZEC
Previously, I was not good to you, I sprayed you a bit too much, but this is all because of deep love and strictness, please forgive my innocent and lovely self. Now I hope you grow well, rise high, and then sister will take you out to see the world, okay? 🥺

The king of Bitcoin is back! It surged 7% in one go, has the market reversed?
Shu Qin's view is that with the favorable news of interest rate cuts, it's better not to chase shorts. Wait until 1-3 days before the interest rate cut to short, don't rush. Personally, I placed a long order near the double bottom of the previous low today; I mentioned this in the afternoon. I am looking for a rebound, but unfortunately, I missed it by a little bit and can only watch everyone else profit, but our thinking is sound. $BTC $ETH

As long as the market is rising before the interest rate cut, I am happy because it allows us to short at higher levels. I am just afraid that the entry point for short positions is too low, which would mean small profits and larger risks. So now, let's be patient for a few more days and let the market recover before we can start taking action.

If you're aggressive, you can also set up some long-term short positions now, and enter the rest before the interest rate cut. Phased entry like this is also fine. Shu Qin is not in a hurry to enter because I already have several short positions from last month at high levels, so I'm not in a rush to add more. I will start entering 1-3 days before the interest rate cut, even if the price is lower, I will accept it and give full respect to the interest rate cut. We have been operating according to logic these weeks, patiently waiting for the ultimate moment to arrive!

Ah, the cryptocurrency market is really in trouble now... It's important to make plans early and discuss the subsequent trends.
Right now, it's truly a case of misfortune not coming alone; Japan's interest rate hike has just begun to have negative effects, and this minor strategy has thrown a wrench into things. The latest announcement about the Fund has become the last straw that could crush the market, stating that they need to raise $1.44 billion to pay interest, which seems a bit desperate. There probably won't be much money left to buy cryptocurrencies afterwards, and their stock price plummeted by 10% early this morning, while Bitcoin has also dropped to near previous lows.

So despite the positive news of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, the current trend is really very fragile. This is a bear market; the difficulty of making money is several times greater than in a bull market. If you can manage not to lose money in a bear market, you have already outperformed 90% of retail investors. So there's no need for everyone to feel anxious; at least we managed to escape the peak at the end of October and made some money shorting afterwards, which is already quite good. Don't think about last year's bull market where money was lying all over the place; adjust your mindset and adapt well to the gap between bull and bear transitions.

Now, I think there are two relatively stable trading opportunities, as shown in the picture. The support near the previous low of ETH at 2620-2650 is pretty decent. In previous instances when the coin price dipped for a second bottom test, there were rebounds of 5-10%, so trading for a rebound around this area seems promising. It may not happen immediately, but once it does, I will definitely give it a try, as it has been effective before the interest rate cut.

Another good trading opportunity is to start laying out low-leverage long-term short positions two days before the interest rate cut. Right now, I don't really want to chase the short; I'm just worried the market might do a dead cat bounce before the rate cut, so I'm avoiding risky trades. However, once we get close to the rate cut, I will have no more reservations and will start laying out long-term short positions, including BTC, ETH, and some smaller coins that are still at high levels; they have more room to fall. I will be trading daily.

Are you panicking now... Hey, don't go against the trend. The cryptocurrency world is purely speculation. Remember to run after it rises, don't get attached to the battle.

The sky has fallen in the crypto world! Why did BTC fall, and will it continue to fall? What about ZEC? Let's discuss the current operations.
First, let's talk about the reasons for the decline, there are 2. The first is the flash crash in the Asian stock market, with Japan's Nikkei 225 plummeting by 2%, due to the Bank of Japan hinting at interest rate hikes, which greatly dampened the Federal Reserve's enthusiasm for cutting rates. This is the first reason.

The second reason, as shown in the picture, is that the Federal Reserve paused its balance sheet reduction today, and the short-term positive effects have been fully realized. Shuqin mentioned this yesterday, and I felt that it would decline today, and it really did drop significantly, even more than I expected, mainly due to the unexpected news from the Bank of Japan. Otherwise, in a normal correction, Bitcoin would have corrected to around 89,000.

Currently, I'm not that panicked because Bitcoin has support around 85,500, and Ethereum has decent support around 2,800. Those who are bold can try to make a short-term rebound; even if the downward trend cannot be reversed, the probability of a rebound of over 2,000 points is still quite good, so it's worth trying. The final short position can wait until a few days before the interest rate cut, positioning for a long-term short at a high point.

As for ZEC, it's been hit hard, with Shuqin outputting for several weeks, and now it's completely collapsed. Shuqin's short-term target for it is to drop to around 330, which seems very close now. There's no need to chase the short; consider shorting only after a significant rebound since this coin isn't worth this price. Especially now that it's still a bear market; it rose from 50, and it's reasonable for it to drop back. However, retail investors who bought it are still reluctant to accept this, and it will take time for them to realize the true price of this coin. As long as you have shorted this coin, you are making money. Congratulations to everyone~

Did you know? The Federal Reserve will announce the end of QT (quantitative tightening) tomorrow. How will Bitcoin react?

It is evident that there have been a lot of positive news coming out from the end of November to early December, which has helped BTC and ETH rebound continuously. Next Monday, the Federal Reserve will completely stop the quantitative tightening that has lasted for 3 years, which is one of the driving forces behind the recent rebound.

However, I personally remain cautious about whether there will be a situation where small positive news is fully priced in, so this is something to keep an eye on. Overall, the trend in the cryptocurrency market can maintain strength before the interest rate cut on December 10, and in the short term, one can choose to go long on dips.

For example, Ethereum's support is around 2930, while Bitcoin has strong support at 89,000 and minor support at 90,000. We discussed this yesterday, and Bitcoin just happened to drop to 90,000 before starting to rebound. If you haven't acted yet, don't rush; let's see if it can come back in the next few days, and there might be another opportunity.

The above analysis is based on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut as a trigger for a 2-3 week B-wave rebound. I believe this is the last opportunity to exit at the peak, as the main theme of the bear market is still present. According to the Elliott Wave model, Bitcoin's drop from 120,000 to 80,000 is just the A-wave decline; we are now in the B-wave rebound, which theoretically could rise to 97,000 - 98,000, after which we will see a C-wave decline with a target of 50,000 - 60,000. This was analyzed by Shuqin in the program last Friday.

In fact, regular viewers know that I've been discussing this model since September, and the script is still playing out as such. You can use this as a reference. I believe after the C-wave decline will be the best entry point, because the profits of a bull market are all generated from a bear market. At that time, you may see 80 or even 50 Sol and 1500 ETH. After buying, just wait for the cycle of the bull market to arrive, and it's not a big deal for your assets to multiply by 5-10 times~

Turned off? Bitcoin is no longer rising? Can we still short ZEC? Let's take a look.
As shown in the chart, Bitcoin has now hit the previous high of 93,000, which is a resistance point that has started to pull back. This is not surprising; many traders have opened short positions here, as it has risen from 80,000 to 93,000. A pullback is very normal. Currently, the support is around 89,000, and it would be a very good choice to add a long position here, likely allowing for a profit of over 2,000 points.

Of course, there is some support near the round number of 90,000, but it is not too strong. Aggressive traders can enter a bit here, but the best entry position remains around 89,000. The short-term resistance is still at 93,000, which is fine, and the endpoint of this BTC rebound may still be around 97,000 to 98,000, so we can keep an eye on that. $BTC

Since there is still plenty of time, with 10 days until the interest rate cut, the market's risk appetite before the rate cut is quite good. Bitcoin has the opportunity to prove itself by breaking through the resistance at 93,000 to reach 97,000. At that point, I will aggressively short. If the day of the interest rate cut has not arrived, we can simply short at the current price then. After the Federal Reserve cuts rates, I will no longer be bullish. The market will enter a terrifying Christmas crisis. If you don't believe it, just follow me, and come back at the end of December to January to see.

Then ZEC fell to 430 today, and I will not chase a short here because there is still some support at the neckline, and the risk is still a bit high. I prefer to let this piece of meat rest a bit and short after it rebounds. Its small resistance is around 480-500, and a more stable short position is at the major resistance of 540. A 1x long position won't get liquidated; even if temporarily stuck, just hold on. It will eventually come down. $ZEC

We have never lost on shorting ZEC; if done well in the crypto circle, it's really about withdrawing without recharging. As long as you are not greedy for multiples, no one can liquidate you. The correct approach should be to reduce the multiples, extend the time, use time to exchange for space, and gradually accumulate wealth through certain trades, taking it step by step. Let's roll the snowball together this winter~

Hahaha, we made a fortune shorting ZEC! Can it continue to fall? What will happen to Ethereum? Let's talk about my thoughts.
First of all, ZEC has finally collapsed, dropping to the previous low of 440 today. As shown in the picture, this place was a position that had been tested multiple times before, so there is some support here. If you want stability, you can take profit here and see if there is a larger rebound before continuing to short, especially around the key levels of 550 and 600. I only short it; I don't go long.

Overall, the popularity of ZEC is gradually decreasing. In another month, I estimate that not many people will be discussing it anymore. At that time, it should break the neckline support at 440 and drop to 300 or even lower. Shu Qin has been recommending everyone to short this coin every few days. Don't be greedy with low leverage in the medium to long term; we have achieved the results we wanted every time. Congratulations, everyone!

As for Ethereum, it is approaching the upgrade on December 4th, and the coin price is starting to strengthen. This is consistent with our expectations. However, because many people are trapped above, there is considerable selling pressure, making it quite difficult to rise. I think the most ideal short position is still around 3250, for example, you can start shorting around 3230, or wait until the eve of the interest rate cut on December 10th. At that time, we can short it without any hesitation, opening positions aggressively every day~

Bitcoin explodes! Is the bull alive again? Why is it rising, and can it keep rising? Hurry up and take a look.

As shown in the picture, there has been a fundamental shift in the cryptocurrency market, and there are huge opportunities here! Because the Federal Reserve has 100% confirmed that it will cut interest rates on December 10, Bitcoin is expected to remain strong before the rate cut. Shu Qin had started talking about this a few days ago. The major resistance level I am currently focused on is around 97,000 to 98,000, while Ethereum is still around 3,250. When it reaches this point, I will short heavily. $BTC $ETH

In the short term, since both BTC and ETH have risen a lot, there should be some pullbacks, which is a normal phenomenon. So currently, the market in the cryptocurrency space is rising before the interest rate cut, but it has already risen a lot in the short term. Those who bought in at 80,000 with me can choose to take profits at higher points instead of chasing the high now, unless there is a significant pullback, then I will add another position.

Then, when we reach the target resistance level mentioned in the picture, or the night before the interest rate cut, either condition met will allow us to set up long-term short positions. The Bitcoin short position I took profit at 80,000 and the ETH short position I took profit at 2,790 will be reopened because the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in January!
So this time, we will directly replicate the operation from October 30 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, shorting at the highest point and holding for the long term. This wave will definitely make a big profit! Are you ready?