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The support at 69500, if broken, will lead to a breakdown of the market to 68750, showing a downward trend.

71500 is a watershed; if broken and held, the market begins to trend upwards towards 76000, 78000, 84000. If not broken, the market will come down again, and a big bearish candle will likely follow.

Like tonight, when the 71500 pressure came down and reversed, the market needed to quickly smash down with a big bearish candle, but that did not happen. After the U.S. stock market opened, it fluctuated back and forth by 1000 points for two and a half hours, starting to build a base around 69500. This itself is the starting point for yesterday's rise. The probability of quickly smashing the market looks very low at present. I have already explained this in my post during the day.

So, with 69500 not broken, holding a long position is very perfect.

Now it's hard to follow the major trend; it’s still mainly about the waves, choosing pressure and support levels, combined with 1-5 minute indicators. Choosing entry positions based on 15-30 minute indicators is too late now; we are in an era of quick pulls of one minute, haha.

After setting the stop loss, as long as the market has a profit of 400-500 points, definitely take the capital loss.

The return to 76000 will be around 74300 points, honestly smashing down to near 71000. As for what other nonsense is going on, a large part is due to the U.S.-Iran conflict combined with the Federal Reserve's rate decision announcement, leading to oil, the dollar, and the cryptocurrency market all taking turns to harvest! This is why capital likes war—not only for physical harvesting but the financial harvesting is even more brutal!

In the past two to three years, the market from February to March 2026, those with congenital heart disease should play less; it's easy to reach a state of extreme joy early!

Aggressive, consider buying near 69800, stop loss at 69500, target 71500. Sell half at 71000, hold the other half to consider selling at 71500 or in batches. If the market rises 400-500, move the breakeven stop loss up, and you can move the buying price up by 100 points.

Take 300 points to look bullish, I think being aggressive is fine! After all, the 30-minute indicators and hourly indicators still have a chance to see a reversal, although there are no obvious indicators showing the trend. But it's worth a try.

I mentioned this afternoon the importance of 71500, and the market has already reached around this position today, 71367. Combined with short-term indicators, it looks like it’s going down, shorting with a stop loss, there is a profit of 1000 points to be had.

Currently, the hourly MACD is in the breaking zero stage, and the fast line DIF has not been suppressed to form a dead cross, with a small support forming around 70150 below. The next wave of the market is likely to touch around 71500, at which point the MACD will have broken the zero axis to form a golden cross. Short-term indicators around 70150 look bullish, going long to catch a wave can also work.

Tonight's market is crucial, determining whether the subsequent trend continues the oscillating upward trend or turns back down.

Reasons for the oscillating upward trend: the bottom point 67500 has not been broken, and the daily MACD has not formed a dead cross above zero, with the KDJ at the bottom position and three bearish volume bars. As long as 71500 is broken, there is a pressure at 72100 above, which is basically not enough to affect the overall market, and it will certainly rise again and break through 76000, with resistance levels at 78000 and 84000 above.

If 71500 holds, stuck under the middle track of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, the market will still trend downwards. Furthermore, a rapid drop without a large bearish candle on the daily line means the market cannot escape the downward trend.

Remember, it must be a strong drop at 71500, a slow decline is useless, and it cannot escape the downward trend.

From the current indicators, the 8 and 12 daily lines are more inclined towards an upward trend. However, the 4-hour indicators lean towards a downward trend, but overall, we can see that the market is subtly reversing. Given the rigor of market analysis, we will still provide a precise analysis when the market comes back to the pressure level of 71500 again.

Regardless of the trend, everyone should focus on trading in waves, catching waves. Do not follow the trend, as the current international situation is quite tense. ZB is switching between oil, gold, the dollar, and the crypto market to harvest various markets. During this time, it’s safer to catch some waves.

$BTC 🔥🔥🔥Last night's market fell to around 68700 and then rebounded. Coupled with the International Energy Agency confirming that member countries will jointly participate in releasing oil reserves in response to the impact of the US-Iran conflict, oil prices have dropped, which consequently affected the rise of BTC. This coincidentally triggered a golden cross on the 4-hour KDJ. The bottom pattern of the oscillating upward trend has not been broken. Thus, the current market sentiment is clearly polarized, with each side having its own reasons.

The daily MACD has not yet shown a dead cross above zero, the KDJ is nearing the bottom, and the continuous release of bearish energy over the past three days has led to the emergence of bullish energy. The current indicators reflect that the probabilities of both rising and falling are present.

Everything now completely depends on the situation of the mid-term indicators.

Firstly, the 4-hour KDJ golden cross is at position 72, the Bollinger Bands are widely opened, but the middle line is trending downwards, the MACD is below zero but the DIF line is turning upwards, with bullish energy being released. The 6-hour Bollinger Bands are flat, the KDJ has shown signs of a golden cross, the MACD is below zero with a dead cross, and bullish energy is being released. The 8-hour KDJ golden cross has appeared, the MACD dead cross has not broken the zero axis, and the 12-hour KDJ is moving upwards from the bottom, with the MACD dead cross at a certain distance from the zero axis.

The short-term K-line resistance is at 71500 and 72100.

Looking at the 4-hour indicators, the market is basically headed for 71500. When it reaches this position, the hourly MACD will likely be at the breaking zero axis stage. This position is a strong resistance level. If the hourly line shows a downward break, and the KDJ dead cross falls, forcing the MACD to dead cross near the zero axis and releasing bearish energy, then this market is still in a downward trend.

The biggest concern now is that the hourly indicators cannot hold, and the market breaks through 71500 to 72100. At this position, the probabilities of both rising and falling are roughly equal. By then, looking at the daily indicators, it will tend toward bullish.

The 71500 point is crucial.

This market is actually very similar to the situation on January 26, but back then it was after a drop from 126000, and the entire long-term MACD was below zero, while this time, except for the 4 and 6-hour indicators below zero, the rest of the long-term indicators are all above zero. This is very critical.

Currently, the market is at the 15-minute EMA double track pressure level of 70800, which has certain resistance, but from the indicators, it is difficult to hold back. The probability is still that it will go to the 71500 point, and then we will analyze more closely based on the hourly indicators.

Still, as I said, the recent market is primarily based on swings; stop-loss and break-even must be in place. Even I, who usually prefers medium to long-term, have been focusing on swings in these past two days. During this time, one must be prudent.

$BTC The International Energy Agency confirms that all member countries will jointly participate in a collective action to release oil reserves in response to supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Affected by the news, oil prices have fallen, and currently, oil prices are beginning to rebound.

btc has also been stimulated by the news, surging 1100 points, and is now starting to pull back.

Now, significant news regarding the US-Iran conflict is continuously emerging, and btc needs to break 67500 to disrupt the upward trend formed over the past several days of fluctuations. Currently, this has not happened, which is a concern.

Although the trend appears bearish, in the past ten days, there have been frequent occurrences of one-minute surges of several hundred or even over a thousand points, so it is still mainly based on swings. Of course, if you really want to be greedy, remember to ensure your capital preservation loss.

$BTC

All missiles are heading towards oil, the higher the oil price, the higher the inflation, the stronger the dollar, oh no, btc falls even faster.

In this kind of trend, there is a probability of a small range of fluctuations in the market, but ultimately it will still crash.

For us retail investors, how to enter the contract? First, definitely abandon the idea of going long at the bottom; the first major market trend is bearish, and it has been falling for the past two days, so it's best to avoid trades against the trend.

Secondly, this kind of volatility is actually the market trying to test people's psychology. Many people are accustomed to making quick profits by trading back and forth. The market is fluctuating at a high position and is under pressure; the space itself is not large, and the profits are thin. Even if there are 2-3 opportunities for low buys against the trend, after deducting fees and slippage, there isn’t much profit. When you get used to this kind of small range fluctuation, as soon as it starts to crash, your long positions will get trapped.

Instead of working hard for nothing, it is more important to choose to short at high positions in line with the trend. Of course, when you reach the low point of the fluctuation, you can choose to partially sell off your holdings and keep half to observe, with a stop-loss to protect your capital. You can also sell everything to capture some profit, or even use a stop-loss to take profit while anticipating a downturn.

Therefore, while technical analysis can be taught, the operational system needs to be formed based on your own capital and your satisfaction with the returns.

The above is my personal suggestion, and I hope it is useful to you; please refer to it with caution.

Did you notice that the market started crashing yesterday afternoon before the Federal Reserve announced that it would not cut interest rates? News of this level is usually digested internally in advance, while retail investors are often slow to react.

I have said before that whenever various app news and major BZ hype the market to rise, even reaching 84000 during a bull market, we need to be cautious.

This time, the zb institutions have indeed been patient in grinding the market for many days. Regardless of how it is perceived, it has already attracted more bulls to enter and take over, successfully preserving the market value of the cryptocurrency market.

126000 dropped to 80600, went through a pullback to enter a range of fluctuations, and the market returned to the highest point of 98000, then started crashing again to 60000. It surged 17600 points, then dropped 28000.

60000 again underwent a pullback and fluctuated within a range. The market returned to the highest point of 76000 and started crashing again. It surged 16000. Where will the next downward position be? Currently, the short-term supports at 72800, 71500, and 69300 have already arrived, and the next levels are 67500, 65500, and 64500.

Once it reaches 64500, there is a high probability that it will stop falling. We need a small-range fluctuation to release the mid-term indicator space. If it crashes again, the 60000 point will be broken, with the monthly Bollinger lower support at 55000 points. The MACD death cross hasn't approached the horizontal level yet. Will it reach 49000-50000 points? Haha, that's a story for another time!

Anyway, let's first look at the range of 64500-65000. When it gets to this position, we'll talk again!

This trend has indeed been frustrating due to zb's manipulation, but in the end, it has come down. Although the process was frustrating, the outcome is still quite perfect.

In the future, when everyone sees similar market conditions, having gone through it, their mindset and understanding of the market should be more thorough, and they won't be panicking anymore. $BTC

Now this oil is really popular, Iran is affected by past influences and has to close again, and oil prices are rising even more. Currently, the dollar oil price is adjusting at a high level, and correspondingly, btc is also adjusting. From the indicators, btc still has room to fall!

Oil prices will rise! The Federal Reserve is not lowering interest rates, and the strong dollar is negative information for the cryptocurrency market.

$XAU The US-Iran war has started, and gold should rise, so why is it falling?

① If Khamenei is assassinated, will Iran end negotiations and thus lead to market sell-offs of gold?

② Some countries are selling gold at high prices for cash

③ Hormuz Strait is closed, oil prices soar, inflation expectations rise

④ The Federal Reserve's interest rates remain unchanged, the dollar continues to rise

⑥ Gold surged to 5600 before the war, preemptively digesting the impact of the US-Iran war.

In summary: Although gold is a safe-haven asset, the soaring oil prices and the strength of the dollar mean that more money will flow into purchasing dollars, US treasury bonds, and oil, rather than maintaining high-priced gold.

Currently, gold will not have much momentum unless the US-Iran conflict diminishes, oil prices decrease, leading to some capital inflow; however, without a rate cut from the Federal Reserve and with the dollar's strength, more will still flow into US treasury bonds and the dollar.

It's starting to drop, oh no!

I mentioned in the early morning market that it will either be a fluctuation or a drop near 72000, with short selling being the safest option, but there are also opportunities to long during a pullback. If the fluctuation releases short-term indicators, then we need to continue selling; once the fluctuation period is over, we should primarily choose to short!$BTC

$BTC The Federal Reserve interest rate was announced, rising to 72000 points, which effectively released the space for the short-term indicators of the afternoon market decline. We had already positioned ourselves for a short entry at that time.

In the evening, whether it's a range fluctuation below 72000 or a decline, it does not affect the trend moving downwards.

After a continuous grind for over ten days, I still say, after many days of grinding, a sudden collapse. The longer the market grinds, the smoother the collapse!

$BTC Grinding the market for many days, smashing the market for a moment, this saying is truly vivid and vivid in the crypto circle.

After the price broke 92800, it officially started a downward trend. 91500 has been broken, and currently the market is at the support level of 70500 on the 4-hour EMA dual track.

At this position, it cannot be stopped. Looking down at 69300 and 67500. Once 67500 is broken, the bottom pattern of the recent 10 days of oscillation upward will be broken, leaving only 65500 points. This is the foundation of the weekly line. As long as this is broken, the market indicates a breakthrough of 60000 points down to 55000. Before breaking 60000, the market will inevitably oscillate and release the medium to long-term indicator space in the range of 64500-67500.

$BTC has finally come down, it's a grinding market. Still the same saying, the more the market grinds, the smoother the crash.

Currently, the 72800 threshold has not been firmly established; if it falls below, it will successfully break, and the next levels are 71600 and 69100.

Only if it successfully breaks below 72800 can the entire market be considered to have officially reversed and crashed.

As for 66000, 64500, or even 60000, we see the lowest point at 55000. We remain optimistic, but for now, we will take it step by step and not overthink; after this grinding market, we need to be more rational and highly cautious.

$BTC Beijing time March 19th 2 AM Federal Reserve interest rate decision announced

From the hourly Bollinger Bands, it can be seen that the market is shrinking in volatility, and today the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision should lead to significant market movements

Is it time to start leaking the market? We will wait and see!