Cointelegraph

Bitcoin’s (BTC) Hash Ribbons metric, tracked by onchain analytics platform Capriole Investments, sent a “buy signal” for the fifth time in 2025.

Key takeaways:

A historically accurate Bitcoin price metric sends a “buy” signal for the fifth time this year.

Miners’ BTC sales have accelerated since the beginning of October compared to earlier in the year.

Bitcoin is stuck between the yearly open at $93,000 and the demand zone below $90,000, reflecting traders’ indecision on the direction of BTC’s price trend.

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons: “Miners are under pressure”

One historically-accurate Bitcoin miner performance metric is telling market participants to buy despite the price declining to as low as $80,500 on Nov. 21 from its $126,000 all-time high.

Hash Ribbons, which identify hashrate and price recovery out of miner capitulations, suggest that miners are under pressure.

The chart below shows that the 30-day moving average (MA) of the hashrate has dropped below the 60-day MA, signalling miner capitulation, which often syncs with major price discounts and long-term opportunities.

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons chart. Source: Capriole Investments

Hash Ribbons has an impressive track record of catching long-term price bottoms and has delivered “buy” signals relatively rarely. 

“This doesn’t mean you have to rush in” and buy, CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost commented in an X post analysis on the topic.

This “highlights phases where miners are under pressure,” Darkfost said, adding:

“In the short term, these periods tend to be bearish because miners may need to increase their selling to cover production costs.”

Long-term, these forced sell-offs “have historically created very strong accumulation opportunities,” the analyst concluded.

Although miners’ BTC reserves have stayed more or less flat through 2025, there has been sustained selling since early October. Known miner wallets totaled around 1.8 million BTC on Tuesday, down by 5,000 BTC since Oct. 10.

Bitcoin miner reserves. Source: CryptoQuant

BTC price stuck between two trendlines

Bitcoin’s recent recovery was rejected by resistance from the yearly open at $93,300, which coincides with the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), as shown on the four-hour chart below.

This move, however, saw BTC/USD find support at the $89,000-$90,500 demand zone, where the 50 and 100 SMAs currently are.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin price is required to rise above the resistance at $92,000 and higher than the 200 SMA to break out of the downtrend and stage a sustained recovery toward $100,000. 

As Cointelegraph reported, the bears will attempt to pull the price down below $90,000 support for a prolonged decline that can go as low as $40,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Institutionally-backed Bitcoin native company Twenty One Capital has launched for public trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker XXI. 

The Jack Mallers co-founded company has the ambition of becoming the largest publicly-traded holder of Bitcoin (BTC), and its Tuesday US launch follows the completion of its business combination with Cantor Equity Partners.

Twenty One Capital holds 43,514 Bitcoin, worth roughly $3.9 billion, making it the world’s third-largest public corporate holder of the asset after Michael Saylor’s Strategy and MARA Holdings. 

“Bitcoin is honest money. That’s why people choose it, and that’s why we built Twenty One on top of it,” Mallers said on Monday, the day his firm began trading.

“Listing on the NYSE is about giving Bitcoin the place it deserves in global markets and giving investors the best of Bitcoin: its strength as a reserve and the upside of a business built on it.”

In addition to offering investors exposure to Bitcoin, Twenty One Capital intends to develop a “corporate architecture” that supports financial products built with and on Bitcoin, including native lending models and capital market instruments.

The company launched in April with early backing from Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether, Bitfinex and venture capital firm SoftBank. The big-name backers, such as American financial services giant Cantor, provide another institutional endorsement of the asset, which has seen markets and trading dominated by institutions this year. 

Twenty One Capital aims to be major player

Mitchell Askew, head of Blockware Intelligence, said, “This isn’t your average DAT whose primary strategy is hiring a C-tier Bitcoin influencer with a few thousand followers to bull post 24/7. The groups backing XXI are connected with the most powerful institutions in the world.”

“Twenty One will be a major player not only in Bitcoin, but in the grand arc of financial history. NOBODY is bullish enough.”

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Cantor is a Federal Reserve Primary Dealer led by the sons of the Secretary of Commerce, Tether is the top stablecoin issuer and a major US Treasury holder, SoftBank manages $330 billion in assets, and Mallers founded Strike and comes from a prominent financial family. 

On Monday, the company transferred its entire stash of BTC to a new wallet, according to Arkham Intelligence, potentially in preparation for the stock market debut. 

Twenty One Capital moves its BTC stash. Source: Arkham

Twenty One Capital more than just a Bitcoin hodler 

Alongside its accumulation strategy, the company plans to establish a set of “Bitcoin-centric operating businesses” aimed at generating recurring revenue and expanding institutional engagement with the asset, according to a recent release.

It will focus on educational content and branded media to support Bitcoin literacy, as well as the rollout of Bitcoin-aligned alternatives to legacy financial services offerings, suggesting that Mallers and co are building an ecosystem, not just accumulating BTC.

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Major tokenization platform Securitize has doubled down on its push to bring tokenized equity to US investors, naming a former PayPal executive as its new general counsel.

Securitize on Tuesday announced the appointment of ex-PayPal executive Jerome Roche, who led the company’s expansion into digital asset projects, including the PayPal USD (PYUSD) stablecoin.

Securitize also said its tokenized securities are already available to US investors, challenging the notion that most issuers prefer to offer such products abroad due to local stock access.

“There’s been a perception that tokenized securities must be offered primarily outside the US, but our experience shows the opposite,” Securitize CEO Carlos Domingo told Cointelegraph.

“Clear regulatory path” for tokenized stocks in the US

According to Securitize, operating real-world asset (RWA) tokenization offerings inside the US regulatory perimeter is “not only possible, but scalable, at institutional quality.”

“We’ve demonstrated that there is a clear regulatory path for issuers to natively tokenize assets for US investors,” Domingo said.

“These are not synthetic representations, or derivatives, but real securities onchain,” the CEO said, adding:

“We operate using SEC-regulated infrastructure, including a registered transfer agent broker-dealer, and fund admin, which allows US investors to access and legally hold tokenized securities in a fully compliant framework.”

Securitize’s optimistic outlook on the US tokenization comes days after the platform obtained regulatory approval to operate as an investment company and a trading ánd settlement system in the European Union on Nov. 26. According to the company, the approval positioned it as one of the first operators for regulated digital securities infrastructure in both the US and EU.

Source: Securitize

“For the first time, modern ledger technology is giving us the ability to record ownership, settle transactions, and move value in ways that are fundamentally better than the fragmented systems we’ve inherited,” Securitize’s newly appointed general counsel, Roche, said in the announcement.

“Innovation only works when it fits squarely within the guardrails of applicable law,” he added, underscoring Securitize’s global push for regulated tokenized securities.

Securitize’s news is another sign of the US warming to tokenization. On Monday, the Securities and Exchange Commission dropped its investigation into rival tokenization platform Ondo Finance.

Ondo said the decision marks a new chapter for tokenized securities in the US, where they are poised to become a “core part of the capital markets.”

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Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are growing, generating billions of dollars in volume. But some observers are concerned about the ethical problems and potential credit risks posed by major prediction betting platforms.

Last week, Polymarket saw a notional volume of over $1.2 billion, according to Dune Analytics. Media giant CNBC has entered into a partnership with prediction market Kalshi to integrate prediction data in its TV, digital and subscription platforms.

On the back of this success, Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour has mentioned creating “a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion,” stating that prediction markets could soon surpass the stock market in size.

Regulators in some jurisdictions are taking efforts to curb their activities. Concerns over wash and insider trading have surfaced in recent weeks, and some analysts believe it’s making credit risks worse.

Weekly volumes on Polymarket are frequently over $1 billion. Source: Dune

Russo-Ukrainian War map altered, prediction market bet resolved

Prediction markets have opened up a range of possibilities for setting wagers on events. These can range from a specific element of a sports match to the outcome of a war. In some instances, this has led to insider manipulation to resolve a market in a certain way.

This is what may have happened in November, when the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) announced an unauthorized edit to its map of the Russo-Ukrainian War. The map is used by media organizations worldwide to track changes to frontline positions.

The edit concerned the ISW’s map of Myrnohrad, where Ukrainian troops have been defending the city against the Russian Pokrovsk offensive since July 2024. The unauthorized change to the map of the city coincided with the resolution of a bet on Polymarket, “Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by…” and then a series of dates.

The market resolution was triggered if Russia held an intersection between two streets, Vatutina Vulytsya and Puhachova Vulytsya. According to 404 Media, on Nov. 15, someone edited the map to show Russian troops had taken the intersection. Just minutes after the market resolved, the edit disappeared.

The updated Nov. 17 ISW map did not show that Russian forces controlled the intersection. Source: ISW, 404

The ISW announced the unapproved edit on Nov. 17. It noted that, “The map does not represent battlefield changes in real-time, and all adjustments made during our workday are subject to review and change over the course of the day.”

In this instance, not only was insider knowledge allegedly used to manipulate data, but that manipulation could have affected the public perception of an ongoing violent conflict.

Other examples have also surfaced. Pseudonymous trader AlphaRaccoo netted over $1 million in bets relating to Google search result rankings. He also reportedly made $150,000 by predicting the exact day Google would launch a new version of its Gemini AI model.

Jeong Haeju, a senior software engineer at Meta, said, “He’s a Google insider milking Polymarket for quick money. It’s one of the wildest things I’ve seen on the platform.”

AlphaRaccoon’s betting history. Source: Jeong Haeju

Allegations of manipulation aren’t limited to insider trading. A November report from researchers at the Columbia Business School found that wash trading — i.e., “buying and selling securities without taking a net position, for the purpose of artificially inflating recorded volume” — accounted for 60% of volume on Polymarket in December 2024.

This fell substantially but rose to nearly 20% of total volume by October 2025 and has comprised an average of 25% of all trading on Polymarket.

Wash trading “doesn’t add liquidity or information to the market,” said Yash Kanoria, a professor at Columbia University’s business school. This is especially important, given claims that prediction markets provide more accurate and dynamic analyses of a situation.

Jason Wingard, a distinguished visiting professor at Harvard University and executive chairman of the Education Board, wrote that prediction markets create a “‘truth signal’ that moves faster than polls, pundits, or official reports. When thousands of people are willing to lose money on what they think will happen, the result is a dynamic forecast of political outcomes, corporate decisions, economic trends, and cultural shifts.”

Regulation battles as prediction markets ponder new assets

Prediction platforms have won important regulatory approvals this year. In November, Polymarket secured regulatory approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate an intermediated trading platform.

Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan said, “This approval allows us to operate in a way that reflects the maturity and transparency that the US regulatory framework demands.”

Kalshi is also regulated by the CFTC, meaning that, on paper, it should be allowed to operate in all 50 states.

However, state regulators have taken issue with these platforms. Kalshi is currently facing legal battles with gaming regulators in Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland and Ohio over whether its platform constitutes a gambling enterprise.

Others see the potential for risks to the financial and credit systems. Bank of America analysts wrote, “Easy access and gamified interfaces encourage frequent and impulsive wagers, which can lead to overextension of credit and rising loan defaults.”

“For investors this convergence of entertainment and speculative finance signals heightened behavioral risk that could pressure credit quality, increase delinquencies, and impact earnings for issuers and subprime lenders.”

They said these risks could pressure credit quality and that online betting markets “introduce a new risk for lenders, one that they have not had to deal with historically and underwriting models may need to be adapted.”

The Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection has served cease-and-desist orders to Robinhood, Kalshi and Crypto.com. It stated that, in addition to lacking proper gambling licenses, the platforms pose “a serious risk to consumers who may not realize that wagers placed on these illegal platforms offer no protections for their money or information.”

Mansour’s plan to turn “any difference in opinion” into a tradable asset may sound novel, but betting platforms will first have to face regulatory scrutiny and a host of ethical issues.

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The eldest son of Malaysia’s billionaire king is launching a stablecoin pegged to the national currency, targeting payments across the Asia-Pacific region.

Bullish Aim, a telecom company owned by Ismail Ibrahim, the son of Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar of the Johor royal family, on Tuesday announced the launch of RMJDT, a new stablecoin backed by the Malaysian ringgit, the country’s fiat currency.

The upcoming stablecoin is set to be issued on Zetrix, a layer-1 blockchain designed to connect governments, businesses and individuals to the Web3 economy with a focus on cross-border integration, particularly in China.

In addition to launching the stablecoin, Bullish Aim will also establish a digital asset treasury (DAT) company with an initial treasury allocation of 500 million ringgits ($121.5 million) in Zetrix (ZETRIX) tokens, the announcement states.

Stablecoin launch under Malaysia’s regulatory sandbox

According to the announcement, RMJDT is launched under Malaysia’s regulated sandbox framework by the Securities Commission and Bank Negara Malaysia, aiming to test financial innovations, including stablecoins.

Launched in June, the sandbox aims to explore digital asset use cases such as programmable payments, ringgit-backed stablecoins and supply chain financing.

Bullish Aim’s managing director Lion Peh, Malaysia’s Crown Prince Ismail Ibrahim and Zetrix co-founder TS Wong (from left to right). Source: Bullish Aim/Zetrix

“RMJDT is designed to strengthen the international use of the Malaysian ringgit in cross-border trade settlements and to act as a catalyst for attracting increased foreign direct investment into Malaysia,” the announcement reads, adding that the initiative aligns with global tokenization trends and directly supports Malaysia’s Digital Asset National Policy.

DAT modeled after MicroStrategy: Has the DAT bubble burst?

Addressing its $121 million Zetrix DAT, Bullish Aim said it plans to increase the treasury to $243 million.

Bullish said the DAT is modeled after global precedent-setters like Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which has accumulated 660,624 Bitcoin (BTC) on its balance sheet since announcing its Bitcoin strategy in 2020.

“As the issuer of RMJDT, we view the establishment of a Zetrix-token treasury as a strategic necessity — both to support operational stability and to deepen alignment with the national blockchain,” Ismail said.

Bullish Aim is entering the DAT sector as many companies with digital asset treasuries face struggles. Ismail’s reported $2.7 billion Singapore land sale bid in August shows how cash-rich players continue to bet big despite growing concerns over Strategy copycats.

According to CoinShares head of research, James Butterfill, the DAT bubble may have already burst following a rally in the summer of 2025.

“As the bubble deflates, the market is re-evaluating which companies genuinely fit the DAT model and which were simply riding momentum,” Butterfill said in a DAT update last week.

He also suggested that the future of DATs will be linked to fundamentals such as disciplined treasury management, credible business models and realistic expectations about the role of digital assets on corporate balance sheets.

Cointelegraph approached Bullish Aim for comment regarding its stablecoin and DAT plans, but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Magazine: Koreans ‘pump’ alts after Upbit hack, China BTC mining surge: Asia Express

The cryptocurrency industry is approaching its “Netscape moment,” as steady progress in blockchain infrastructure and the rise of regulated investment products drive a new wave of institutional adoption, according to Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang.

The crypto sector is “facing its ‘Netscape’ or ‘iPhone’ moment,” Huang wrote Sunday in a post on X. “It’s working bigger than ever before, far beyond our wildest dreams. Both the institutional parts and the cypherpunk parts.”

Netscape launched the first easy-to-use web browser for mainstream users in 1994 before going public with a successful initial public offering (IPO) in August 1995, marking the first building block that triggered the internet’s mass adoption.

However, Microsoft saw the large-scale interest and capitalized on it on it by freely bundling Internet Explorer as a pre-installed component of the Windows operating system, outcompeting Netscape to become the most widely used internet browser.

Source: Matt Huang

Onchain usability meets regulated access

In the crypto world, Bitcoin’s (BTC) peer-to-peer model and decentralized finance (DeFi) have enabled a new vision of an open, programmable financial system that cuts out intermediaries.

At the same time, centralized platforms and traditional investment vehicles are attracting a growing share of new capital because they are easier to use and fit within familiar regulatory frameworks.

About 200 crypto-based exchange-traded products (ETPs) could launch on the market in the next year, with 155 awaiting approval as of Oct. 22, according to Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas.

Crypto ETPs provide easier access to altcoins for traditional investors on brokerage platforms that don’t have an account on a centralized cryptocurrency exchange.

Source: Eric Balchunas

Onchain products are becoming easier to use, while “regulated” investment vehicles are making crypto more accessible, signaling that the industry may be at the tipping point ahead of mass adoption, Lacie Zhang, market analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph.

“ETFs and similar products legitimize digital assets but don’t replace what onchain systems uniquely offer, such as direct ownership, programmable settlement, and real-time transfers.”

She added that regulated access points tend to pull more liquidity onto underlying networks by drawing in institutional capital and new participants, rather than “displacing onchain activity.”

Related: Bitcoin now settles Visa-scale volumes, but most is for wholesale, not coffee

Despite some concerns about centralization, the rise of centralized finance (CeFi) platforms and ETFs is an “expansion of the onchain economy,” not an inherent threat, according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of RedStone, a blockchain oracle solutions provider.

“The Netscape moment isn’t about onchain versus CeFi. It’s about the broader crypto ecosystem finally attracting capital that actually stays around long-term,” he told Cointelegraph, adding that the two ecosystems are “not adversarial.”

Netscape moment or dot-com bubble repeat?

However, the crypto industry may still risk a market crash akin to the dot-com bubble, considering that the majority of revenue is derived from speculative memecoin trading for some blockchain networks.

On Solana, memecoin trading accounted for 62% of the network’s decentralized app revenue in June, and the majority of its $1.6 billion in revenue for the first half of 2025.

To reach its true potential, the developers need to focus on advancing the industry’s real-world utility, as the only “real risk” to the industry is a “slowdown in technological development,” according to Edwin Mata, lawyer, co-founder and CEO of tokenization platform Brickken.

“What matters is that onchain environments continue creating functionality, automation, and new market structures, because that is where fundamental value is produced,” he told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Solana vs Ethereum ETFs, Facebook’s influence on Bitwise — Hunter Horsley

Hong Kong has launched a public consultation on how to implement the international Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, or CARF, as it moves to bring crypto tax data sharing in line with global standards.

According to a Tuesday press release, Hong Kong is seeking input on both the implementation of CARF and changes to tax reporting standards. The announcement explicitly ties the move to the local administration’s efforts to fight cross-border tax evasion.

The move constitutes standardization rather than a change of direction by the local government. As the announcement points out, Hong Kong authorities have been annually exchanging financial account information with partner jurisdictions since 2018.

Hong Kong’s Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Christopher Hui, said adopting CARF would demonstrate the government’s “commitment to promoting international tax co-operation and combating cross-border tax evasion.”

Christopher Hui, Hong Kong’s Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury. Source: Wikimedia

In addition to joining CARF, Hong Kong is also seeking comments on adopting the Common Reporting Standard (CRS). Just like CARF, CRS is an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) initiative that aims to standardize aspects of tax reporting internationally.

CARF sees widespread international adoption

CARF has gained traction with regulators worldwide. In early November, reports indicated that 47 national governments had issued a joint pledge to adopt it quickly. Brazil has also recently been reported to be weighing joining the data exchange program.

Others appear to be dragging their feet. At the end of November, Switzerland delayed implementing CARF until 2027 and is still deciding which countries it will share data with. Also in November, the US was reviewing the Internal Revenue Service’s (IRS) proposal to join the CARF program.

However, adoption of the data sharing program has been growing at a steady pace. A list — maintained by the OECD and updated on Dec. 4 — shows that 48 nations pledged to adopt CARF by 2027, 27 by 2028, and the US by 2029.

Countries that have pledged CARF adoption and those that have not. Source: OECD

This brings the total to 76 countries that have pledged to share crypto data so far. A separate OECD list shows that 53 countries have already signed the Multilateral Competent Authority Agreement, the legal instrument that enables automatic data exchange.

Recent figures show a 70% year-on-year increase in Cayman Islands foundation company registrations. Legal professionals at Walkers said that CARF likely excludes structures that merely hold crypto assets, such as protocol treasuries, investment funds, or passive foundations, making Cayman Islands foundations a potential escape.

Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict: Crypto projects’ impossible choice

Introduction of stricter rules for crypto exchanges in Japan

Japan is in the process of introducing significant changes to cryptocurrency regulation following renewed attention to Mt. Gox-related repayment activity in 2024.

The Financial Services Agency (FSA) plans to introduce new rules requiring cryptocurrency exchanges to maintain special “liability reserves” to protect customers if their assets are lost due to hacks or unauthorized transfers. The measures aim to bring the cryptocurrency sector closer to the strict standards applied to traditional financial institutions in Japan, one of the world’s most heavily regulated markets.

As of Dec. 9, 2025, under the Payment Services Act, registered cryptocurrency exchanges in Japan must comply with strict requirements. These include asset custody, accounting, separation of client funds, Anti-Money-Laundering (AML) controls and cold storage rules. However, there is still no legal obligation for exchanges to hold dedicated funds to compensate customers after a hack or unauthorized outflow. The FSA and its advisory Financial System Council have concluded that this gap in protection needs to be closed.

Japan has a history of major failures and consumer losses in the crypto industry. The 2014 hack of Mt. Gox, in which over 740,000 Bitcoin (BTC) was stolen, resulted in the exchange’s bankruptcy and a repayment process that is still ongoing. In May 2024, the Japanese exchange DMM Bitcoin lost 4,502.9 BTC due to a major theft. These incidents showed that customers remain vulnerable even with strong safeguards such as mandatory cold wallet storage.

What the proposed liability reserve rules require

The new rules will require exchanges to maintain dedicated funds to compensate customers in the event of security breaches.

A statutory obligation to set aside liability reserves

According to a report in The Nikkei, the draft legislation will require all registered cryptocurrency exchanges to hold liability reserves. These reserves will be used to repay customers if assets are lost through unauthorized transfers. The requirement will apply even to funds kept in cold wallets, ending the previous assumption that offline storage alone provides sufficient protection.

Benchmarking reserves to Japan’s securities industry rules

The FSA plans to base the size of these reserves on standards already used for securities firms in Japan. Traditional securities companies must maintain reserves ranging from 2 billion to 40 billion Japanese yen, depending on their size, risk profile and activity level.

Insurance may be allowed as an alternative

To reduce the burden on smaller operators, the FSA is considering allowing exchanges to meet some or all reserve requirements through approved insurance policies instead of holding only cash or liquid assets. Details such as acceptable policy types, minimum coverage levels and approved insurers are still under discussion.

Liability reserve is part of a wider regulatory overhaul

The liability reserve rule is only one part of a broader set of reforms. Other proposed changes include:

Requiring third-party wallet providers, custodians and trading system operators to register with regulators.

Reclassifying certain cryptocurrencies under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act would impose stricter securities-style rules, such as audits and disclosure requirements.

Improving insolvency procedures so that customers can receive compensation more quickly, potentially from liability reserves or insurance.

Did you know? South Korea’s 2021 regulations forced exchanges to partner with licensed banks, implement real-name accounts and meet strict AML checks. This reduced the number of active exchanges from hundreds to fewer than 20 within months.

Why regulators are pursuing this framework

The primary goals are stronger customer protection, greater market confidence and the elimination of remaining regulatory weaknesses:

Boosting customer protection: Hacking incidents and subsequent repayment delays have shown the need for faster compensation mechanisms. Liability reserves will ensure that exchanges have funds immediately available instead of forcing customers to wait through lengthy bankruptcy proceedings.

Restoring and maintaining market trust: Japan is working to align cryptocurrency rules more closely with those of the securities industry. With this policy, the country aims to position itself as a secure jurisdiction for digital assets and offset the reputational risk created by past high-profile hacking incidents.

Closing regulatory gaps: Cold wallet requirements reduce the risk of attack but do not remove it entirely. The new reserves add a second layer of protection that focuses on financial recovery after an incident rather than only on prevention.

Did you know? The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation harmonizes rules across 27 countries, covering licensing, reserve backing, market abuse and consumer protection. It sets the world’s first continent-wide rulebook for crypto exchanges.

Implications for exchanges and investors

The changes will affect exchanges, customers and the wider market in several ways:

Impact on exchanges

Higher operating costs due to the need to hold substantial reserves or pay for insurance

Difficulty for smaller exchanges to meet the requirements, which may lead to industry consolidation

Additional accounting, reporting and compliance procedures.

Impact on customers

Greater protection against losses caused by exchange failures

Faster compensation in the event of hacks due to the dedicated financial buffer

Overall reduction in the risks of using centralized platforms.

Impact on the broader market

Japan’s approach may influence regulatory developments in other countries. Exchanges worldwide are likely to adopt more professional custody and risk management practices.

Did you know? US crypto exchanges face a patchwork of state-level rules, including the New York BitLicense, money transmitter laws and federal oversight for certain assets. This fragmentation makes compliance one of the most complex globally.

What remains unclear

Many key details of the proposed regulations are still being finalized. These will depend on the forthcoming Financial System Council report and the 2026 legislation.

The unresolved issues include:

The exact method for calculating each exchange’s reserve amount

The extent to which insurance can replace cash reserves

Implementation timelines and grace periods for existing exchanges

How reserves will interact with revised insolvency procedures

Whether the obligation will extend to cases of mismanagement, not only to hacks

The precise monitoring and enforcement arrangements.

US spot Dogecoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are showing early signs of cooling demand, as total value traded (TVT) has fallen to its lowest level since launch. 

SoSoValue data shows that on Monday, Dogecoin ETFs’ TVT fell to just $142,000, the lowest since launch. This marks a sharp retreat from late November, when the funds saw days where value traded topped $3.23 million.

Total value traded refers to the total dollar amount of ETF shares bought and sold over a given period. It serves as a gauge of market activity and practical liquidity, indicating the amount of money that has moved through the funds.

Daily spot ETF net inflows and total net assets. Source: SoSoValue

The contrast is stark when compared to Dogecoin (DOGE) activity in the broader crypto market. CoinGecko data shows that in the last 24 hours, DOGE recorded over $1.1 billion in spot trading volume and has a market capitalization of $22.6 billion. 

This shows that the underlying asset remains highly liquid, but not through its ETF wrappers. This discrepancy suggests that traders are accessing DOGE directly through exchanges rather than traditional market vehicles.

Grayscale’s Dogecoin ETF made its debut in November but fell well short of initial volume expectations. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicted at the time that the ETFs would get at least $12 million in volume. However, the ETF only saw $1.4 million on its first day.  

Related: BlackRock files with SEC for listing of staked Ether ETF

Bitcoin and Ether dominate ETF trading as alt-ETFs trail behind

On Dec. 8, ETF trading activity remained concentrated on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH)-based products. According to SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETFs posted $3.1 billion in TVT, while Ether ETFs recorded $1.3 billion. 

Solana (SOL) ETFs saw $22 million in value traded, while XRP products recorded $21 million in value traded. Further down the curve, the recently-launched Chainlink ETFs recorded a $3.1 million TVT on the same day, while Canary’s Litecoin (LTC) ETF had about $526,000. 

The data suggests that ETF capital still overwhelmingly flows toward the two largest digital assets, continuing their lead as the core liquidity centers of regulated crypto exchange-traded products. 

In terms of inflows, XRP (XRP) remains strong. On Monday, XRP ETFs’ inflow streak remains unbroken since its launch. Meanwhile, Solana ETFs, which first had their inflow streak broken in November, are on a three-day inflow streak after seeing $32 million in outflows on Dec. 3. 

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Bitcoin (BTC) price action has painted bearish continuation patterns on its daily chart, which may propel BTC to new lows, according to analysts.

Key takeaways:

A sharp decline in spot buying and weakening ETF demand suggests that the upside may be limited.

Bitcoin’s bear flag pattern on the daily time frame targets $67,000 BTC price.

BTC price could bottom at $66,000

The BTC/USD pair has formed a bear flag on the daily chart, as shown in the figure below. This bear flag formed following Bitcoin’s drop from $107,000 highs on Nov. 11, and the recent rebound was rejected from the flag’s upper boundary around $93,000. 

Related: Bitcoin retail inflows to Binance ‘collapse’ to 400 BTC record low in 2025

A daily candlestick close below the flag’s lower boundary at $90,000 may open the way for a drop toward the measured target of the pattern at $67,380, or around the 2021 price top. This would represent a 25% drop from the current price.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Indicators (MACD and RSI) were extremely oversold, and this movement allows them to cool off so we can continue our downtrend,” said trader Roman in a Tuesday post on X, referring to Bitcoin’s consolidation inside the flag.

Pseudonymous analyst Colin Talks Crypto said that although a move down would be the expected outcome from the flag’s validation, the $74,000-$77,000 zone “would be the likeliest bottom,” adding:

“I would also expect a powerful rebound if such a level is reached.” 

Meanwhile, crypto trader Aaron Dishner said that BTC price is likely to revisit $92,200, then near $98,000 under the upper bear flag line, before continuing the downtrend. 

“Volume remains too weak to drive higher highs.”

1/ Bitcoin almost tested its first resistance fan level yesterday

It remains inside its bear flag and likely to revisit support near $86k–$87k

If Bitcoin pumps it faces resistance at $92,216 then near $98k under the upper bear flag line

Volume remains too weak to drive higher… pic.twitter.com/choWsb94Cz

— Aaron Dishner (@MooninPapa) December 9, 2025

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s failure to successfully retest the yearly open above $93,000, caused by macroeconomic uncertainty, liquidations and stagnant spot ETF flows, is causing traders to retreat from Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin could drop due to weaker demand

Bitcoin’s ability to push past the yearly open above $93,000 appears limited due to the absence of buyers.

Bitcoin’s spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), an indicator that measures the net difference between buying and selling trade volumes, shows net spot buying on exchanges remains negative even after Bitcoin’s recent rebound.

Bitcoin’s Spot CVD weakened from -$40.8 million to -$111.7 million over the last week, “pointing to stronger underlying sell pressure,” Glassnode said in its latest Market Impulse report, adding:

“This sharp drop signals a clear rise in aggressive selling, suggesting softer buyer conviction and a short-term tilt toward bearish sentiment.”

Bitcoin spot CVD. Source: Glassnode

Spot Bitcoin ETF demand slowed down last week, flipping from a $134.2 million inflow to a $707.3 million outflow, the market intelligence provider wrote, adding:

“The shift points to profit-taking or softer institutional demand, reflecting a more cautious tone as investors reassess positioning.”

These investment products experienced another $60 million in outflows on Monday, according to data from Farside Investors.

🇺🇸 ETF FLOWS: ETH, SOL and XRP spot ETFs saw net inflows on Dec. 8, while BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows.

BTC: - $60.48M
ETH: $35.49M
SOL: $1.18M
XRP: $38.04M pic.twitter.com/L4yMudTt3G

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) December 9, 2025

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s recent rebound could be a bull trap, with some analysts predicting as low as $40,000 over the coming months.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Prediction markets are emerging as a new battleground in the crypto economy, where the best-informed traders are competing against casual retail bettors for profits.

Most users are behaving more like sports bettors than disciplined traders, according to a Tuesday report from research firm 10x Research, which said they are trading “dopamine and narrative for discipline and edge.” “Accuracy and profit are driven not by the crowd, but by a tiny, informed elite who price probability, hedge exposure, and extract premium from retail-driven longshots.”

The rising liquidity and retail participation are incentivizing professional trading desks to increase their prediction market activity and capture the spread and “misinformation asymmetry” arising from this market structure, 10x added.

Polymarket active users, weekly, Bitcoin left-hand-side price, year-to-date chart. Source: 10x Research

Related: Bitcoin now settles Visa-scale volumes, but most is for wholesale, not coffee

The report is a concerning sign for casual traders looking to make easy money on prediction markets, as blockchain data suggests that most users lose their initial investment.

Polymarket, positive/negative wallet balances. Source: Dune.com

Only about 16.7% of wallets on Polymarket are in profit, while the remaining 83% have incurred losses, according to blockchain data from Dune.

Related: Prediction markets emerge as speculative ‘arbitrage arena’ for crypto traders

Perfect win rates fuel insider concerns

The flawless track record of some prediction market accounts is stoking concerns about possible insider trading, as certain users appear to win every time.

Polymarket user “pony-pony” boasts a 100% win rate with over $77,000 in realized profit by betting on events related to the artificial intelligence development company, OpenAI, prediction market data aggregator Polymarket Money said in a Monday X post.

Another user, “AlphaRaccoon,” also triggered insider allegations after generating over $1 million in a single day by successfully winning 22 out of 23 bets related to Google search trends.

Source: Polymarket Money

Meanwhile, concerns are brewing over the reliability of Polymarket data on third-party data dashboards after a Paradigm researcher discovered a bug that double-counts the prediction market’s trading volume, Cointelegraph reported earlier on Tuesday.

The bug is inflating the primary volume metrics used to gauge prediction market activity, including the notional volume, which counts the number of contracts traded, and the cashflow volume, which measures the dollar value traded at the time of each trade, wrote Paradigm researcher Storm in a Tuesday X post.

However, the inflated volumes on data dashboards are due to errors in data interpretation, not wash trading, which is a deceptive and illegal practice in which entities buy and trade the same instrument to create a false impression of growing market activity.

Paradigm’s newly discovered bug was “validated” by multiple data dashboards, including AlliumLabs and DefiLlama, which are now updating their Polymarket dashboards to eliminate the double-counting error.

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Blockchain network Polygon has rolled out its latest protocol upgrade, known as the Madhugiri hard fork, which aims to achieve a 33% increase in network throughput and reduce block consensus time to one second. 

Polygon core developer Krishang Shah said on X that the update includes support for three Fusaka Ethereum Improvement Proposals, specifically EIP-7823, EIP-7825 and EIP-7883. These EIPs make heavy mathematical operations more efficient and secure by limiting the amount of gas they consume.

They also prevent single transactions from consuming excessive computing power, helping the network run more smoothly and predictably. 

The upgrade introduces a new transaction type for Ethereum to Polygon bridge traffic and adds a built-in flexibility feature for future upgrades. Polygon previously said that the update makes throughput increases as easy as “flipping a few switches.”

“We are also decreasing the consensus time to 1 second, so blocks can now be announced in 1 second if ready, instead of waiting the full 2 seconds,” Shah wrote. 

Source: Krishang Shah

New update reinforces Polygon for stablecoins and RWAs

With Madhugiri now live, Polygon aims to reinforce its infrastructure while materially improving its performance. These are prerequisites for high-frequency and high-trust use cases, such as real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and stablecoins. 

Aishwary Gupta, the global head of payments and RWAs at Polygon Labs, previously forecasted a “stablecoin supercycle.”

Gupta said there will be a surge of “at least 100,000 stablecoins” in the next five years. However, he said this would not only be about minting tokens and must have a corresponding utility like yield. 

Gupta also advocated for more transparency and accountability in the RWA sector. He previously argued that RWA numbers are meaningless if the assets cannot be audited, settled or traded.

“When transparency and accountability are established, RWAs will reach even greater heights, unlocking trillions in institutional capital,” he wrote. 

Related: Polygon co-founder mulls resurrecting MATIC a year after POL rebrand

Hard fork follows major Heimdall upgrade

The upgrade comes on the heels of rapid prior improvements. On July 10, Polygon deployed Heimdall 2.0, dubbed by Polygon Foundation CEO Sandeep Nailwal as the network’s “most technically complex” hard fork since its launch.

The update reduced transaction finality times from one to two minutes to roughly five seconds. 

However, on Sept. 10, the network experienced a significant disruption when a bug caused finality delays of 10 to 15 minutes, affecting validator sync, remote procedure call services and third-party tooling. Despite this, the team assured the community that blocks were still running. 

On Sept. 11, the Polygon Foundation announced that the consensus and finality functions had been restored through a hard fork. With the update, nodes were no longer stuck, while checkpoints and milestones were finalized as expected.

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HashKey Group, operator of one of Hong Kong’s licensed crypto exchanges, has opened subscriptions for its initial public offering (IPO) ahead of an expected listing next week.

HashKey is seeking to raise up to 1.67 billion Hong Kong dollars ($214.7 million) in an IPO that is scheduled to debut on Dec. 17, according to a prospectus filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) on Tuesday.

The company is offering 240.6 million shares at $0.76–$0.89 each, which would bring HashKey’s valuation to $2.46 billion at the top of the range.

With the subscription period beginning today, investors can apply for HashKey shares online through the HK eIPO White Form or using an electronic application via HKEX’s digital IPO settlement platform FINI until Friday.

HashKey’s rapid path to IPO after three years of operation

Founded in 2018, HashKey has grown into Hong Kong’s largest crypto exchange, reportedly capturing a 75% market share, or more than three times that of its nearest competitor.

After commencing operations and obtaining key regulatory approvals in Hong Kong in 2022, HashKey entered full-scale operations in 2023.

According to its prospectus, HashKey had facilitated $167 billion in cumulative spot trading volume as of Sept. 30.

HashKey’s IPO prospectus filed with the HKEX on Tuesday. Source: HKEX

HashKey offers a wide range of digital asset services to both institutional and retail investors, including spot exchange, over-the-counter (OTC) trades, staking and tokenization. It also operates HashKey Chain, an Ethereum layer-2 network designed for real-world assets (RWAs), stablecoins and decentralized applications.

The company has also emerged as the largest Asian, Hong Kong-based asset management provider in 2024, with $1 billion in assets under management as of Sept. 30, the prospectus states.

Related: Bitkub exchange eyes Hong Kong IPO as Thai markets slump to 5-year lows: Report

HashKey’s IPO is backed by high-profile sponsors, including major US investment bank JPMorgan and local financial institutions such as Guotai Junan.

The IPO proceeds are planned to go toward scaling its ecosystem and infrastructure, bolstering risk management and hiring talent, the filing notes.

HashKey’s public offering comes amid a continued IPO boom in Hong Kong, with HKEX reporting a 209% year-on-year increase in funds raised through IPOs in 2025, totaling $27.8 billion in the first months of the year.

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Zcash (ZEC) extended its recovery on Tuesday, rising 10.29% in the past 24 hours to over $425, or 41.50% up from the lows of around $300 just a week ago.

Key takeaways:

ZEC eyes $500 as double-bottom signals and whale accumulation support the recovery.

Bear-flag risks persist, with overbought RSI hinting at a possible pullback toward $260–$280.

ZEC/USDT four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

The sharp rebound prompted some analysts to anticipate a further rally to or above $500 in the coming days.

Can Zcash retest the psychological resistance?

From double bottom to $500 ZEC next?

Trader Goomba identified Zcash’s recent swing lows as a potential double-bottom structure.

The pattern appeared to develop in the $300–$310 region, where ZEC recorded two similar troughs within a short time frame. The subsequent move above the interim resistance near $380 marked what the trader described as a neckline breakout.

ZEC/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView/Goomba

Such formations carry a measured objective that places the next notable target in the $480–$500 range, coinciding with a previous supply zone.

Goomba noted that the structure remained valid as long as ZEC held above the reclaimed neckline level.

Zcash whales are absorbing selling pressure

ZEC’s retail holders ($0–$1,000) and mid-sized traders ($1,000–$100,000) cut more than $30 million in net exposure during the latest rebound, according to data highlighted by trader Ardi.

ZEC/USDT hourly chart. Source: TradingView/Ardi

In contrast, larger whale accounts ($100,000–$10 million) added over $100 million in the same period, suggesting a divergence in behavior.

Simply put, smaller participants appeared to sell into the rally while higher-capital accounts increased their exposure.

That raises ZEC’s potential to continue its rebound toward the $500 level, given that the larger investors are looking forward to higher prices.

Bear flag may spoil party for ZEC bulls

Zcash’s latest rebound unfolded inside what still appeared to be a classic bear flag pattern, a weakening relief channel that formed after a steep November sell-off.

Historically, these rising channels resolved to the downside, and ZEC’s failure to hold above the flag’s upper trendline suggested that sellers were already regaining control as of Tuesday.

ZEC/USDT four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Price also struggled to break above the 200-day exponential moving average (200-4H EMA; the blue wave), reinforcing the bearish continuation setup.

At the same time, ZEC’s relative strength index (RSI) had pushed above the overbought threshold of 70, a region where upside momentum often fades.

Together, these signals suggested that a breakdown from the flag could have opened the door to a move toward the $260–$280 zone, which is approximately 35% below current price levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Stablecoin issuer Circle has secured regulatory approval to operate as a financial service provider in the Abu Dhabi International Financial Center, deepening its push into the United Arab Emirates.

In an announcement Tuesday, Circle Internet Group said it received a Financial Services Permission license from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), the International Financial Centre of Abu Dhabi. This allows the stablecoin issuer to operate as a Money Services Provider in the IFC.

The USDC (USDC) issuer also appointed Saeeda Jaffar as its managing director for Circle Middle East and Africa. The new executive also serves as a senior vice president and group country manager for the Gulf Operation Council at Visa and will be tasked with developing the stablecoin issuer’s regional strategy and partnerships.

Circle co-founder, chairman and CEO Jeremy Allaire said that the relevant regulatory framework “sets a high bar for transparency, risk management, and consumer protection,” adding that those standards are needed if “trusted stablecoins” are going to support payments and finance at scale.

Source: Circle

Abu Dhabi awards a wave of licenses

The ADGM has recently awarded licenses for financial operations to a wave of crypto companies. Earlier this week, Tether’s USDt (USDT) — the largest stablecoin by circulation and Circle’s top competitor — secured a regulatory milestone in Abu Dhabi’s international financial center, as did Ripple’s dollar-pegged stablecoin Ripple USD at the end of November.

On Monday, crypto exchange Binance was granted three separate licenses from Abu Dhabi’s financial regulator, allowing it to operate its exchange, clearing house and broker-dealer services. This followed its competitor Bybit receiving regulatory approval in the UAE in early October.

UAE bets on crypto

The Central Bank of the UAE has been actively reviewing its cryptocurrency regulations. In November, it introduced rules for decentralized finance (DeFi) and the broader Web3 industry.

The newly-introduced Federal Decree Law No. 6 of 2025 brings DeFi platforms, related services and infrastructure providers under the scope of regulations if they enable payments, exchange, lending, custody, or investment services, with licenses now required. Local crypto lawyer Irina Heaver said that “DeFi projects can no longer avoid regulation by claiming they are just code.”

Heaver told Cointelegraph at the end of 2024 that during that year the country cemented its status as a global crypto hub.

In October 2024, the UAE exempted cryptocurrency transfers and conversions from value-added tax, just a month after Dubai’s digital asset regulator announced stricter rules on crypto marketing. Around the same time, local free economic zone Ras Al Khaimah Digital Assets Oasis was also working to introduce a legal framework for decentralized autonomous organizations.

Local regulators were also not shy about enforcing the rules, with Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority cracking down on seven unlicensed crypto businesses, issuing fines and cease-and-desist orders.

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Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have fallen to their lowest monthly sales volume this year, with digital collectibles declining by over 66% in market capitalization from their January highs. 

CryptoSlam data shows that NFT sales declined to $320 million in November, roughly half of the $629 million recorded in October. The drop pulled the monthly volumes back to levels not seen since September 2024, when digital collectible sales hit $312 million. 

The data also shows that between Dec. 1 and 7, NFTs generated $62 million in sales, marking the weakest weekly total of 2025. The slow start to December suggests that the downturn may persist through the month as NFT momentum slows. 

The downward trend comes amid a broader decline in NFT valuations. According to CoinGecko, the sector’s overall market cap is at $3.1 billion, down 66% from its high of $9.2 billion in January. 

NFT market cap in 2025. Source: CoinGecko

Blue chips slide, but Infinex Patrons and Autoglyphs buck trend

CoinGecko data showed that most of the top NFT collections mirrored the broader market decline, with CryptoPunks, the largest by market cap, falling 12% in the last 30 days. 

Bored Ape Yacht Club slipped 8.5%, while Pudgy Penguins dropped 10.6% in the same time frame, continuing a pullback across the most dominant NFT assets. 

The downturn did not spare art-driven blue-chip collections. Chromie Squiggle slid 5.6%, Fidenza fell 14.6%, Moonbirds dropped 17.9% and the Mutant Ape Yacht Club was down 13.4% in the last month. 

The biggest decline came from Hypurr, which shed 48%, making it the largest decline among the top 10 NFT collections. 

Meanwhile, two major collections posted gains in the last 30 days, bucking the downward trend. Infinex Patrons, currently the second-largest NFT collection by market cap, posted gains of 14.9%, while Autoglyphs outperformed the entire top 10 leaderboard with a 20.9% surge in the last 30 days. 

NFT collections 30-day heat map. Source: CoinGecko

Related: Meta shares climb on report of possible 30% metaverse budget cut

NFT winter deepens as 2025 concludes

The latest decline comes amid a turbulent quarter for the NFTs market. As Cointelegraph previously reported, NFTs recorded a sharp drop in valuation from October to November.

Digital collections dropped from $6.6 billion to $3.5 billion even as sales slightly climbed. This represented a 46% drop in just 30 days. 

The weakness was followed by a rebound. On Nov. 11, NFT market cap briefly recovered from $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion, reflecting renewed appetite alongside a memecoin rally.

However, the recovery was short-lived. CoinGecko data showed that the NFT market cap is at $3.1 billion, down 53% from October. 

Magazine: Digital art will ‘age like fine wine’: Inside Flamingo DAO’s 9-figure NFT collection

Bitcoin (BTC) retail investors are setting new records as “structural decline” sets in this bull market.

Key points:

Bitcoin entities holding up to 1 BTC are sending less per day to Binance than ever before.

A tale of “structural decline” comes in the era of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Whale positioning hints at a new BTC price bottom.

”Shrimp” Binance BTC inflows set all-time lows

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows BTC inflows to largest crypto exchange Binance collapsing in 2025.

Bitcoin retail investors — entities holding up to 1 BTC ($90,000) — have largely withdrawn from the trading scene.

According to CryptoQuant, even compared to the 2022 bear market, the activity of these “shrimp” investors is a fraction of what it was.

“The activity of shrimps, meaning small Bitcoin holders (<1 BTC), has dropped to one of the lowest levels ever recorded,” contributor Darkfost confirmed in a QuickTake blog post on Monday.

Bitcoin shrimp inflows (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

In December 2022, daily inflows from shrimps to Binance alone totaled around 2,675 BTC ($242 million) per day, as measured using a 30-day simple moving average (SMA).

“Today, those inflows have collapsed to just 411 BTC, marking one of the lowest levels ever observed,” Darkfost continued. 

“It’s not a simple pullback, it’s a structural decline.”

Bitcoin whales vs. retail delta (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Retail’s seeming lack of interest has characterized recent Bitcoin history, even as prices reach unprecedented new heights. 

Meanwhile, during the drawdown over the past two months, one indicator comparing retail investors to whales has remained bullish.

Whale versus retail delta, which contrasts long positioning across both cohorts, is teasing a BTC price bottom signal.

“Whale vs. Retail Delta shows that, for the first time in Bitcoin’s history, whales are this heavily positioned in longs compared to retail traders,” Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal, told X followers in late November. 

“Whenever these levels got this high in the past, we saw local bottoms forming — but also large positions getting liquidated.”

Bitcoin ETFs “clearly contribute” to retail shifts

CryptoQuant, meanwhile, explained the retail downtrend within the context of the emergence of more suitable Bitcoin investment vehicles, namely the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

“ETFs have provided a frictionless way to gain exposure to Bitcoin without dealing with private keys, wallet security, exchange accounts or the risk of mismanaging custody,” Darkfost wrote. 

“Of course, ETFs are not the only explanation, but they clearly contribute to a profound change in how retail participates in the market.”

As Cointelegraph reported, November was a testing time for the ETFs, with the largest, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), seeing net outflows of $2.3 billion.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Funds that track a basket of cryptocurrencies are likely to rocket in popularity next year as investors look to get easy exposure to a broader range of digital assets, according to Bitwise’s investment chief Matt Hougan.

“Crypto index funds are going to be a big deal in 2026,” Hougan said in a note on Monday. “The market is getting more complex and the use cases are multiplying.”

He added that while the overall crypto market is poised to grow, it isn’t possible to predict which tokens will perform, so owning a fund that tracks the market is a “great place to start,” although it’s “not right for everyone.”

Many exchange-traded fund issuers, including Bitwise, offer funds that track multiple cryptocurrencies, drawing inspiration from indexes such as the S&P 500, which track the top 500 companies on US stock exchanges. 

Multi-crypto ETFs already exist, with some going live in the US earlier this year that hold crypto in proportion to each token’s market capitalization. However, these have seen relatively modest inflows as they largely hold Bitcoin (BTC), which currently dominates nearly 60% of the market, per CoinGecko.

“Buy the market” as crypto is unknowable

Hougan said that despite his experience and network of experts within crypto, he can’t say “with confidence which chain will win, or precisely how things will turn out.”

“At this stage of crypto’s development, I’d argue it’s unknowable,” he added. “Outcomes will be shaped by regulation, execution, macro conditions, the actions of a few key individuals, luck, and a hundred other variables.”

“Forecasting all of that correctly would require supernatural foresight.”

Crypto markets rallied from November 2024 to January through Donald Trump’s presidential election and inauguration and have remained elevated on his pro-crypto policies.

However, crypto has felt the negative effects of sweeping US tariffs and uncertainty over further interest rates cuts as traditional finance becomes more involved in the market.

“Given that uncertainty, my approach is simple: I buy the market,” Hougan said. “Specifically, I buy a market-cap-weighted crypto index fund.”

He added that crypto “will be far more important in 10 years than it is today,” and the market could grow up to 20 times over that time.

Hougan pointed to Securities and Exchange Commission chair Paul Atkins’ comment on Wednesday that the US financial system could embrace tokenization in a “couple of years.”

The US equity market is a ~$68 trillion market. We currently have ~$670 million in tokenized stocks. https://t.co/IgyJ20oiar

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) December 8, 2025

“Stablecoins will matter more. Tokenization will matter more. Bitcoin will matter more. And I think a dozen other major use cases will follow: prediction markets, decentralized finance (DeFi), privacy tech, digital identity,” Hougan said.

“I don’t want to risk picking the wrong chain,” he added. “Imagine correctly calling a market that goes up 100,000x—and still underperforming because you backed the wrong horse.”

“So I use a crypto index fund as the core of my portfolio,” Hougan said, “knowing that, however crypto evolves, I’ll own exposure to the potential winners.”

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There are at least 400,000 fewer Bitcoin on exchanges compared to the same time last year, in a positive sign for the market, according to the market intelligence platform Santiment. 

Over 403,000 Bitcoin (BTC) have moved off exchanges since Dec. 7, 2024, representing roughly 2% of the total supply, Santiment said in an X post on Monday, citing data from its sanbase dashboard.

Users often move their Bitcoin away from exchanges into cold storage wallets, which, in theory, makes it harder to sell and could signal long-term plans to hold. 

“In general, this is a positive long-term sign. The less coins exist on exchanges, the less likely we’ve historically seen a major sell-off that causes downside pressure for an asset’s price.” 

“As Bitcoin's market value hovers around $90K, crypto’s top market cap continues to see its supply moving away from exchanges,” Santiment added.

A year ago, there were around 1.8 million Bitcoin on exchanges. Source: Santiment

Bitcoin is also shifting into ETFs

While much of the Bitcoin on exchanges is likely headed back to hodler wallets, Giannis Andreou, the founder and CEO of crypto miner Bitmern Mining, said that exchange-traded funds (ETF) could also be absorbing these coins. 

Citing data from BitcoinTresuries.Net, Andreou said ETFs and public companies now hold more Bitcoin than all exchanges combined, after years of outflows and ETFs quietly accumulating in the background.

Related: Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury swells past 660,000 BTC after fresh $962M buy

“Institutional ownership has quietly crossed into a new phase: less liquid supply, more long-term holders, stronger price reflexivity, a market driven by regulated vehicles, not trading platforms,” Andreou said. 

“This shift is bigger than people think. Bitcoin isn’t moving to exchanges anymore. It’s moving off them straight into institutions that don’t sell easily. The supply squeeze is building in real time.”

ETFs and private companies hold more Bitcoin than exchanges 

Crypto data analytics platform CoinGlass shows the same trend, with Bitcoin held on exchanges sitting at around 2.11 million as of Nov. 22, when Bitcoin was suffering through a correction and trading hands for around $84,600.

Bitcoin held on exchanges has been steadily falling over the last year. Source: CoinGlass

BitBo lists ETFs as holding over 1.5 million Bitcoin and public companies with over one million, representing nearly 11% of the total supply combined. 

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Stablecoin giant Tether has announced it is one of the backers of an $81 million funding round for an Italian artificial intelligence startup aiming to build advanced humanoid robots. 

The 70 million euro funding round for startup Generative Bionics was led by the AI fund of CDP Venture Capital, with participation from Tether, AMD Ventures, Duferco, Eni Next and RoboIT.

In an announcement on Monday, Tether said it provided capital to support the development of advanced humanoid robots, “built for industrial scale performance” and “human-centric interaction.” 

“Tether’s investment will support the development of Physical AI systems and edge AI solutions, and accelerate the industrial validation of the company’s humanoid platform, the development of its first production facility, and its integration in the broader robotics ecosystem,” Tether said. 

Generative Bionics is an AI startup and research spinoff from the Italian Institute of Technology. Its focus is on building humanoid robots with “real-world physical AI capabilities” such as industrial usability in factory production lines. 

“Tether’s support for Generative Bionics builds on its broader strategy to back emerging technologies that expand human potential while reducing reliance on centralized systems overseen by Big Tech,” Tether said.  

Source: Tether

Related: Tether's USDt awarded key regulatory status in Abu Dhabi

According to Tether, the firm focuses on five areas of investment. These include: finance, power, data, education and evolution, with AI investments such as these falling under the category of evolution.  

With a healthy balance sheet in 2025, the firm has made a series of investments across multiple sectors. In terms of AI, it was reported in mid-November that the firm was considering a hefty $1.15 billion investment in German AI robotics startup Neura.   

In the announcement, Tether also highlighted some other AI plays it has supported.  

“This includes investments in brain-computer interfaces via Blackrock Neurotech and recent AI initiatives such as Tether’s collaboration with Northern Data and Rumble to deploy a 20,000-GPU global compute network for open, privacy-preserving AI development,” Tether said. 

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