币研miles

After watching $ZEN

this analysis, it feels very much like "the racer has switched to a better track, but has not fully adapted to the new environment".
The pullback from $18.18 to $14.2 is actually a normal profit-taking, especially after the news of OKX going live. The negative funding rate of -0.04% indicates that bullish sentiment is still present, with bears paying the bulls, which is usually a sign of a rebound.
The move to migrate Base has been well executed, transforming from an isolated island to an ERC-20 that can interact with the DeFi ecosystem, and the improvement in liquidity is evident. The 24-hour trading volume of $364M compared to a market capitalization of $250M, with a turnover rate of 146%, is indeed active.
On the technical side, the support level at $13.43 is critical; if it holds, combined with the negative fee rate and an oversold RSI of 33.4, the probability of a rebound to the resistance level of $15.12 is quite high. However, if it breaks down, we may need to look for deeper support around $12.
The privacy coin sector has indeed shown signs of recovery this year, with regulatory pressure significantly less than last year. ZEN's choice to migrate Base and expand exchanges at this time has been well timed. #加密市场回调

Saudi Arabia's recent $1 trillion investment commitment seems to be another familiar profile. The last similar scale of investment commitment had a real implementation ratio of about 30%.
Trump wants to replace the Federal Reserve Chairman; the market should have anticipated this. The question is whether the new chairman's monetary policy stance will be more dovish than Powell's. If the answer is yes, it could be beneficial for risk assets.
In terms of AI regulation, a federal standard has been established, which sounds like it is aimed at the technology union sector. This is similar to the regulation of social media back in the day, starting with verbal warnings followed by cautious actions.
From an investment perspective, Saudi Arabia's military orders may boost the related sectors. However, the $1 trillion figure was previously a political stance, and the actual execution period should be quite long. #特朗普取消农产品关税

Damn, how can these scammers still dare to raise funds? The crypto world really is like a goldfish with a memory of only 7 seconds.

After watching this fearless analysis, it's very professional. The Zkasino incident was very noisy at the time, with 30 million dollars running away, and even Vitalik came out to warn us. Now these people still dare to commit crimes against the wind?
1. Gambler's psychology + technical packaging, this combination is very dangerous
2. The term 'master of human mining' is perfectly used, specifically to exploit people's weaknesses of greed
3. Small amounts attract attention, while big money runs away directly, the tricks are very clear
The crypto world has suffered from these scammers for a long time!!! The essence is that everyone is too greedy; seeing high returns makes them forget the risks. You shouldn't touch projects like this, no matter how much money it is, it's still someone else's. Really, don't lick the blood from the knife, brothers😭#加密市场回调

Damn, the Camp Network thing is really disgusting! Anyone who sees it would want to curse 😂
1. Signing a SAFE/SAFT agreement without giving tokens, isn't that obviously a scam? $400,000 is not a small amount
2. How can the project party still go missing after being listed on top exchanges like Bybit and Bitget? They can't even pass the exchange's KYC and are playing dead, it's absurd
3. Overseas KOL rounds are indeed dangerous, 20,000 for one person doesn't seem like much, but for over 20 people, that's big money
Coin Research recommends:
Exchanges should intervene and investigate; such projects damage the platform's credibility. KOLs should collectively defend their rights, and legal avenues need to be pursued. The crypto circle needs stricter regulatory mechanisms for project parties
Projects can be done, but don't treat investors like fools. Behavior like this from $Camp is exhausting the trust of the entire industry 😭
If exchanges don't take action, who will dare to invest in KOL rounds in the future? #加密市场回调

#加密市场回调 ASTER Adjustment Unlocking Schedule directly locks most tokens until 2035, equivalent to forcing diamond hands for 10 years😂
Looked at the technical aspects: 1. The support at 10u is indeed solid, currently testing the resistance level at 1.28u. 2. The key is this unlocking adjustment, changing from 80 million tokens per month to basically not moving for 10 years, which instantly reduces supply pressure.
However, a rational analysis is necessary: the project party must have reasons for this, possibly because previous sell pressure has significantly impacted the price. The fact that it can still break through while the market is declining indicates that there is capital picking up.
But still a reminder: the unlocking schedule can be changed once, it can be changed a second time, so don't trust the project party's promises too much. Investments should still focus on fundamentals and actual applications, not just on the locked asset games.
If 1.30u stabilizes, then consider increasing positions; chasing highs now still carries risks. Do the right thing, do things right.

$ZEC

This wave is very intense, pulling from over 70 dollars to 700 dollars, a 1000% increase over 12 months makes people envious. However, I think this case is very similar to 2017's Monero $XMR, when the concept of privacy coins was also booming, XMR surged from 20 dollars to 500 dollars, and what happened? When regulations came in, it was directly halved by 80%, and it stayed down for several years.
Actually, I understand the logic of privacy coins; real demand does exist, but the problem lies in the regulatory environment. Look at the mainstream exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken, which have long delisted ZEC and XMR, causing a significant shrinkage in liquidity.
I calculated that if ZEC can really reach 946 dollars, that would be a 35% upside, but the risk-reward ratio is not very favorable. A target of 10,000 dollars? That would require a market cap of 150 billion U, higher than the current LTC, which seems a bit overly optimistic.
Calmly analyzing, the risk of taking over at ZEC's current position of 700 dollars is very high. History tells us that a 1000% increase is usually accompanied by a 70-80% correction, which is a market rule. I suggest waiting for a correction to the 300-400 dollar range before considering it; at that time, the risk-reward ratio will be more reasonable. #加密市场回调

#加密市场回调 I looked at the data, and Bitcoin has dropped from 107,000 to 93,000, completely erasing the gains from the beginning of the year. The outflow of 867 million USD in ETF funds indicates that institutional capital is retreating.
It's like the situation after the FTX collapse last year, where market sentiment switched from greed to panic in an instant. Liquidation pressure is concentrated around 90,000 and 99,000, meaning both bulls and bears have significant positions in this range.
However, every time there is a major drop, some people say it’s a buying opportunity. The question is, what is the catalyst for this drop? If it is due to macro factors leading to tighter liquidity, then 85,000 or even lower is possible. But if it’s just a technical adjustment, 90,000 could be the bottom.
The key still lies in the attitude of the institutions, as the pricing power of Bitcoin is largely controlled by these large funds. $BTC

Uniswap just burned $950 million worth of tokens $UNI

and activated the fee switch—UNI rose 30% to $9.5. This news is worth paying attention to, as Uniswap has finally started "charging," like a software that has been free for several years suddenly starting to charge membership fees.
A 0.05% protocol fee doesn’t seem like much, but when calculated as an annualized $460 million buyback, it amounts to needing to buy back $1.26 million worth of UNI daily for destruction. If this pace can be maintained, it could indeed produce a good deflationary effect. However, I am more concerned about the LP's reaction, as this essentially means taking a cut from their earnings. If a large amount of liquidity migrates to other DEXs as a result, the buyback base will also shrink accordingly. After all, $CRV

has already learned this lesson. Additionally, the attitude of major shareholders like a16z is also crucial; they have been cautious about similar proposals before. If they truly vote against it, this rise might just be a flash in the pan. From a trading perspective, a 30% increase has pretty much priced in expectations; whether this can be sustained will depend on the actual execution effects and the market's ongoing judgment on deflationary expectations.

Follow me to grasp on-chain fund movements and trends in the crypto market in real time. #UNIUSDT

$TRUMP

The recent surge of Trump Coin is actually the result of multiple factors resonating together.
Policy statements are indeed important, but what’s more important is the structural support from the $200 million buyback fund. Most people focus on market fluctuations, but I pay more attention to changes in supply and demand structure.
Whales have accumulated 91 million, and this data doesn’t lie. On-chain data is more honest than candlestick charts; the money is smart money.
Technically, it has broken out of a wedge, but I don’t really believe that technical analysis can predict meme coins. For these types of assets, sentiment and narrative are more important than charts.
The risks are also quite obvious, with 80% controlled by insiders, and liquidity is essentially a problem. The unlocking in July 2026 needs to be considered now.
The principle of not engaging in what you don’t understand is particularly important here. Only those who can judge the longer-term and higher probability situations can be said to understand. In the game of meme coins, your enemies are time and probability.
If you’ve missed this wave, just let it go for the sake of more important matters.
#美国政府停摆

I checked the data of the ORE protocol, and the daily income has exceeded one million USD, which is indeed interesting. The mechanism of 90% burn + 10% staking dividend is similar to the early BNB burn model, but more aggressive.
With an annualized income of 365 million USD, compared to a market value of 180 million, this income multiple is indeed exaggerated. However, the key question is how long this income can be sustained; will it be as fleeting as last year's inscription boom?
The unrefined ORE annualized yield of 147% is significantly higher than the staking yield of 16%, indicating that the market has a more optimistic expectation of deflation. This is similar to the UST mechanism of LUNA back in the day, where short-term data looks impressive, but sustainability is in question.
The emergence of mining robot tools proves that professional players have already entered the market. However, calling it the 'BTC of the new era' seems a bit overly optimistic, as the value consensus of Bitcoin is not built on a burn mechanism. $ORE

#BTC走势分析

The return of privacy narratives is actually inevitable.
Everyone is discussing $ZEC

Can it reach 1200? I don't think that's the point. The point is, have you ever laid out a privacy section on the left side?
A funding rate of 338% indicates what? It shows that most people are entering at a high price on the right side. At such times, what is smart money thinking? They're thinking about how to elegantly reduce their positions.
The logic of the privacy track must be valid. However, when it becomes valid and in what way it becomes valid, are two different matters.
I see many people starting to FOMO, but they should really think about whether their understanding of privacy coins is based on technology or price? If it's the latter, then it's dangerous.
Those with patience have already laid out during the bear market. Those who are chasing high prices now are likely handing over their positions to those who came before.
If you don't understand, don't engage. What does it mean to understand? It means to be able to judge that this sector is likely to become valid over a longer time frame and higher probability. #隐私币爆发

The price movement of ZEC this past month is actually quite similar to the "value return" surge at the end of 2017. $ZEC

After breaking through $500, the key to the long and short game lies in its relative strength against other privacy coins. Back then, ZEC peaked at $5000, and now at $500, it hasn't even reached 1/10 of its historical high.
But the problem is that a 1000% monthly increase has already exhausted too many expectations, and the negative funding rate indicates that shorts are actively hedging. At such times, it often signals that "smart money" is gradually unloading.
What I’m particularly concerned about is the ZEC/BTC exchange rate. If this rate can stabilize above 0.005, then there is indeed a possibility for further highs. However, if it falls below this support, a 50% correction would even be considered conservative.
In the realm of privacy coins, regulatory risks are always the sword of Damocles hanging over our heads. Short-term surges can be participated in, but position control needs to be stricter than with other coins. #隐私币爆发

Seeing SOL drop to $150 is actually very similar to last year's ETH when it was repeatedly bottoming out between $1500 and $1600, at that time everyone was also worried about further declines.
From Upexi's action of increasing its holdings by 2.1 million SOL, it's clear that institutional funds are still positioning themselves on dips, especially with the 42% locked SOL allocation strategy, indicating they still have confidence in the medium to long term. Such large fund movements often reflect real value judgments better than retail sentiment.
However, I think the key now is to see if the SOL/BTC exchange rate can stabilize. If BTC continues to strengthen while SOL performs relatively weakly, that $150 support may need to be tested a few more times.
The ecosystem data is quite bright, with Solstice TVL reaching $271 million, along with various new protocols being deployed on SOL at a rapid pace, indicating that the fundamentals are indeed improving. But in the short term, I think the price trend will still follow the overall market sentiment and capital flow; technical support levels are just a reference. $SOL #加密市场回调

These coins that launch simultaneously on all exchanges are basically premeditated. A 484% increase, 81 million liquidated, a typical pump and dump strategy.
I've looked at this MMT trend; Bybit's highest price was $10, while other platforms were at $4. The large price difference indicates very poor liquidity. A TVL of 270 million sounds good, but the ve(3,3) mechanism is no longer a novelty.
A 591 million FDV is indeed high. The insufficient community token allocation is crucial, indicating a high concentration of chips. The more aggressively a coin is pumped in the early stages, the harder it will be dumped later.
A flash profit financial product with an annualized return of 101%, this kind of yield itself indicates extremely high risk. I won't touch coins that spike right after they launch; I'll wait for them to drop 70% first. $MMT
#加密市场回调

After watching $ICP

This round of performance has several points worth noting:
1. 44% of the supply is locked in long-term staking, which is somewhat similar to the early distribution of BTC holdings, significantly compressing the circulating supply. Under this structure, once there is an influx of new capital, the price elasticity could be quite exaggerated.
2. Negative funding rates but the number of open contracts surged by 67%, indicating that bulls are increasing their positions, but the market has not yet reached a frenzy stage. This combination is actually quite healthy, unlike those signals where funding rates explode positively and retail investors go all in at the top.
3. The selling point of "four years without downtime", combined with the recent AWS outage, has been timed very well. However, I find Chain Fusion even more interesting; if it can indeed attract even 1% of BTC liquidity, the current TVL of 19 million dollars does have room for imagination.
4. From a technical perspective, the weekly 200 SMA at 8 dollars is indeed a hard resistance level, but the daily chart has already formed an upward channel. At this pace, if it can stabilize at 6 dollars, the next round might be a challenge to the long-term resistance at 8 dollars.
That said, honestly, compared to the activity level of Solana's ecosystem, the developer base of ICP is still too small, which requires time to validate. $SOL #加密市场回调

The concept of AI is driving traditional markets, while the cryptocurrency sector is still correcting; this is a typical case of capital misallocation.
$ZEC

And $DASH

This recent fluctuation is really interesting. The privacy coin sector has been suppressed for so long, but now suddenly funds are starting to bottom out, what does it mean? It means smart money is beginning to layout in forgotten value areas.
Dash derivatives OI surged by 55%, spot volume doubled; this data combination is basically a signal that the main force is building positions. Once PoW privacy coins gain momentum, it often represents a shift in market sentiment: from chasing hotspots to finding value.
However, be careful, the volatility of these old coins is indeed significant. The idea that there is still a tenfold space from the 2017 high sounds appealing, but don't forget they have also plummeted badly in the past.
The current question is: when will the AI frenzy subside? Will funds really flow back to these "veterans"? I think it's worth paying attention to, but don't go all in. #巨鲸动向

Recently, traditional markets have been heated up by the concept of artificial intelligence, with many tech stocks soaring, while cryptocurrencies are actually weakening. This kind of divergence cannot last long—once tech stocks start to adjust, the crypto market often falls even harder. Be psychologically prepared; the market's 'reality check' will eventually come. #MarketPullback

I looked at the data, and this adjustment is indeed interesting. The 180-day put option skew has dropped to -0.42; the last time it was at this level was in June last year when Bitcoin was still fluctuating around $25,000.
A giant whale that has been dormant for 6 years suddenly transferred 2,300 coins to the exchange, and the timing was very precise. It's similar to those early miners in 2022, who acted at critical moments. MicroStrategy's monthly accumulation dropped from over 4,000 coins to less than 400 now, indicating that even the most aggressive institutional buyers are on the sidelines.
With a liquidation amount of $1 billion and a 52% probability of breaking below $100,000, market sentiment has indeed shifted. However, it’s worth mentioning that each time the option skew reaches extreme values, it often signals a reversal. During the last bear market bottom, bearish sentiment was similarly strong, and not long after, a rebound began.
The key is still whether this weekly support at 102,679 can hold; if it breaks, the next target might be around $98,000. $BTC
#MarketPullback

$70 million transferred to a new address, basically indicating an attack. For a fund transfer of this level, if it were a normal operation, the team would have issued a statement clarifying it long ago. The current silence indicates that the problem is significant.
The essence of DeFi is that code is law, but when there are bugs in the code, the law becomes a jungle law. Balancer, as a pioneer of AMMs, ultimately succumbed to complexity and time. $BAL
The market has become numb to such events; there may not even be a substantial drop. After all, what everyone cares about now is memes and AI; who still cares about DeFi infrastructure?

KuCoin exchange has detected that the funding rate for perpetual contract $WILD has dropped to -2.00%, far exceeding the warning threshold of 0.5%. This $WILD

funding rate is indeed quite extreme. -2.00% means that short sellers have to pay long holders a fee of 2% every 8 hours, which is already quite high.
Based on historical experience, when the funding rate drops to this level, there are usually two possibilities. Either there is indeed a significant problem with the fundamentals, prompting short sellers to bet on further declines. Or, the sentiment is overly pessimistic, creating conditions for a short squeeze.
I recall a similar situation last year with a DeFi token that also experienced an extreme rate of -1.8%, and as a result, it surged 40% three days later. Of course, there are counterexamples where the rate continued to be negative and the coin price kept declining.
It is advisable to observe the selling pressure in the spot market. If the spot trading volume shrinks, but the futures open interest continues to increase, then the probability of a short squeeze becomes quite high. After all, with such high costs for short sellers, they can't hold on indefinitely.
That said, the liquidity of $WILD itself is not very good, and in extreme market conditions, the drop can be significant, so operations need to be particularly cautious.