葉問打饼YynOne11

More than a week, 4wU has reached 10wU, recently my trading has been hot, continuously making profits, always gaining, my bull has arrived, the air force has been living well during this time.
Still the same saying, remember to withdraw the principal after making a profit, use the earnings to keep running.
I have always insisted that bull and bear markets do not alternate; they coexist, just manifesting on different time scales. What we need to do is stay in a rhythm we are familiar with, striking hard at the drowning dogs🤑$ETH #加密市场回调

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Eight years of trading experience taught me one thing: in this market, surviving is itself a victory.
I've seen too many passionate beginners dreaming of getting rich overnight, only to exit in disgrace within a few months. The reason for their failure is simple—greed overcomes rationality. Trading is not gambling, nor is it a game of luck; it is a battle of psychological quality and execution.

First line of defense: mindset is more valuable than skills
Market fluctuations are the norm; when it rises, it dazzles, and when it falls, people want to cut losses and escape. Ye's experience: the more intense the fluctuations, the more you must hold steady. Seeing a red candlestick makes you want to cut your position? This is a typical reaction of beginners. But true winners do the opposite—they stick to their plan in panic and hit the brakes in greed. Calmness is not numbness, but discipline based on rules.

Second line of defense: diversify risks, never go all-in
No matter how accurate your technical analysis is, a margin call can happen in an instant. My iron rule is simple: a single position must not exceed 10% of total capital. This means that even if one trade hits the stop loss, your account can continue to operate. Position management may sound conservative, but it allowed me to survive in a bear market and continue to grow in a bull market. Always set a clear stop loss before building a position; this is not passive, but a confirmation of the baseline before taking proactive action.

Third line of defense: go with the trend, wait for opportunities
Understanding trends is one thing, executing correctly is another. I often use trend lines, moving averages, and trading volume to judge market direction, but the key is not to chase highs. The best buying points usually appear during pullbacks, when people's hearts are anxious, making it just the right opportunity for those with patience to get in. The trends of mainstream coins often provide the clearest signals; learn to wait for them to confirm the bottom before taking action.

Live longer to earn more.
Looking back over the years, there are often only a few moments of making big money, but opportunities to lose big money are everywhere. Those steadily growing traders succeed not because they are right every time, but because they never let a single mistake destroy their entire account. Most people's problem is not a lack of talent, but a lack of patience to wait and a lack of courage to admit mistakes.
The pits I've walked through are too deep, so I want to raise this lamp for those who come after. $ETH #加密市场观察

YeWin Lunch Pancake Interpretation
Bitcoin's recent movement is indeed quite interesting. Looking at the 4-hour chart, it has been repeatedly pulled in the range of 89000 to 90500, but if you observe closely, you'll find that the price center is leaning downwards. Multiple attempts to break 91500 have failed, and the upper resistance is too strong. The most heart-wrenching fact is that the rebound highs are gradually decreasing—this indicates that the bears are slowly accumulating chips, not in a hurry, which instead shows more control.
Even if there are occasional rebounds near 89000, they are merely the dying struggles of short-term bulls and cannot form effective breakthroughs. The entire market is in a state of weak consolidation, with nothing much to see.
The 1-hour chart illustrates the problem even better. The price is stealthily nudging downwards in the middle of the range, with increasingly smaller fluctuations. The market is in a wait-and-see mode, and there is no momentum during rebounds. Those rapid surges? Fake. There is no sustained follow-through, and the highs are being successively lowered, with bulls clearly bleeding. The entire structure is "moving downwards weakly and without energy."
The MACD is sticking near the zero axis and has tested downwards multiple times, failing to form an upward golden cross. The RSI is also running at a neutral-weak position, with rebounds unable to stabilize at the midline. Buying power has dissipated, and the market is still held in the hands of bears.
So the current operational thinking is very clear: don't think about chasing the bulls. Wait until rebounds are blocked and under pressure to enter, especially when the price approaches 91000 or when the rebound shows obvious weakness; consider short positions. Risk control must be strict, and the key support at 89000 should be closely monitored to see if it can effectively break down.
Real trading advice:
$BTC can short around 91000, targeting 89000#BTC走势分析

If you are still losing money today, don't blame the market, and don't blame luck.
There is only one real reason:
Your eyes are focused on "guessing the rise and fall," while the market's eyes are focused on "how to harvest you." This is based on the market's "cognitive dislocation!"

The most typical operation I had when I first entered the crypto world was like this:
When it rises: afraid of missing out, chase!
When it falls: afraid of loss, even more afraid to cut!
When it consolidates: the more I look, the more anxious I get, random operations!
When it rebounds: doubt, afraid to jump in!
Every time I got harvested, I would scold myself for being "too stupid" and "too greedy."

It wasn't until later that I understood:
I am not greedy; I misjudged the market logic. The market logic is not about "rising and falling"; the market logic is about eliminating all those who do not understand the rules.
You must have heard a saying: the market is always right.

In the eyes of ordinary people, there are only two colors:
Green: want to buy
Red: want to escape

But what the real big players look at is something completely different:
Where are the chips?
Where is the liquidity?
Where is the liquidation point?
Where is the emotional tipping point?
Who is being forced to liquidate?
Who is in panic? Who is greedy?

When ordinary people chase the rise, big players are reducing their positions.
When ordinary people cut losses, big players are lying in wait.
When everyone is in despair, big players are bottom fishing.
When everyone is excited, big players are retreating.
This is not about technology; it's a gap in cognitive levels.

This is the understanding I gained after going bankrupt 7 times:
Candlestick charts are not prices; they are the electrocardiogram of human emotions.

Newbies looking at candlestick charts will ask:
"Will it rise?"
"Will it fall?"
Big players looking at candlestick charts focus on:
"Is this the time when the public is most likely to make mistakes?"
"Where can panic be created?"
"Can this force a short squeeze?"
"Has the cut loss point arrived?"

What you see are charts; what big players see is human nature!
Stop attributing losses to: mentality, luck, decision-making mistakes, short-term fluctuations, black swans, inaccurate indicators.

There is only one real reason:
You are using the mindset of a "game player" to fight against the rules of "professional hunters."
And you don't even know what the rules are!
If you do not change your understanding, changing 100 sets of indicators will be useless.

Because behind all losing behaviors, there is only one root cause:
You are always more anxious than the market.
The market is not anxious, the big players are not anxious; only ordinary people are as anxious as ants on a hot pot. $BTC #加密市场观察

39岁，在一线城市安居乐业，两套房产在手，身家八位数有余。这笔财富从何而来？说出来你可能不信——我踩的是条最朴素不过的"硬核之路"。

一套房是家的温度，一套房才是真生活。这份踏实感，源于8年币圈摸打滚爬的真刀实枪。

初入这行没敢想能走到今天，甚至经历过从15万亏到5万的绝望时刻。但我没有调整过方向，就死守一套逻辑不放松——靠最笨的滚仓方法，拒绝任何花哨模式。

那波最凶悍的行情里，底仓在4个月内翻了200倍，直接装进了2000万。听起来像故事，其实是我对着K线熬过无数个深夜的结果。

这些年全职交易，我把自己总结的"活命铁律"打印贴在办公桌和床头——生怕哪天被欲望冲昏头脑。

能在币圈活下来、真正赚到钱，其实没那么复杂。核心就是守住这几条底线：

心态永远比技术值钱： 行情涨跌时，别让情绪接管你的判断。

资金少就更要精打细算： 一年捕捉到一波大涨就足够了，贪心满仓的下场往往很惨。

认知不足，赚到的迟早还回去：模拟盘是练技术的地方，实盘才是磨心性的地方。

中长线必须预留流动资金： 涨了有机会加码，跌了也能摊平成本。

短线只碰交易量充足的币种：流动性差的代币再诱人也得躲开。

急跌往往快反弹，缓跌常常慢恢复： 摸透这个规律，能少踩很多坑。

方向一旦错了，立刻止损：本金还在，就有翻盘的机会。

短线看15分钟K线，配合KDJ和MACD寻找进出点：这套组合打了多年，效果稳定。

从七亏到二平再到一赚，其实就是一个人能否坚守好自己那套交易系统。

现在虽然资产进了八位数，我反而更想把这些在真实市场中验证过的经验讲清楚。毕竟币圈暴利靠运气，长期稳定靠纪律。真的。$BTC #加密市场观察

This year is particularly obvious—more and more people have quietly entered the cryptocurrency space.

Friends who used to mock Web3 as 'too abstract' are now studying for their master's degrees while interning at leading mining companies; some people originally from the entertainment/influencer circles are also starting to seriously study RWA, stablecoins, and on-chain arbitrage; you can even see many bosses, entrepreneurs, and traditional finance professionals collectively entering the market—not because of a trend, but because they are beginning to understand the trend.

The popularity of RWA and stablecoins this year is no longer a celebration of young people like the 2022 NFT craze, but rather a large migration 'from top to bottom.' Social elites, institutional funds, and ordinary workers all realize one thing:
This is a once-in-a-decade structural opportunity.

But what’s more interesting is:
Even if you only bought 100 yuan worth of Bitcoin, you are already standing in the greatest flow of this era.

Some say we are at the end of a dividend period, but I actually feel that—this is the starting point for Web3 to truly showcase its underlying value. The era of making money through information asymmetry is over; today’s opportunities are more abundant, faster, and more equitable.

In the past few years, many people with ordinary educational backgrounds have made millions a month in the cryptocurrency space through insight and execution; today, you see a position at Binance that only requires a college degree, ultimately hiring graduates from Peking University. This is not competition; it is the era's dividends driven by 'cognition.'

But the more this is the case, the more it shows that the window for entry is still very large.

Because those born in the 00s and 10s are growing up in an unprecedented era—knowledge, capital, and influence are rapidly becoming equitable.

1️⃣
ChatGPT breaks down knowledge barriers, and the knowledge of elites is now within reach.

2️⃣
Crypto and Pump have made asset issuance equitable for everyone.

3️⃣
Self-media amplifies individual influence to levels unimaginable in the past.

4️⃣
New industries and new narratives are creating possibilities for 'ordinary people to leap.'

The rules of this era are very simple:
Those who dare to think from first principles will find the world is always bigger than others.
Those who dare to step in early will reap higher leverage in the future.

If the past wave of the internet created wealth freedom for a generation, then the triple overlap of Web3, AI, and self-media will be the closest window to 'era dividends' for ordinary people in their lifetime.

The best time is now. $BTC #加密市场观察

I didn't expect that as an old air force member, I missed the short positions yesterday and made several long positions. Late at night, I took the community students to make over a thousand points on a wave of long positions. Although it was quite enjoyable, I still prefer to short.🤭$BTC #BTC走势分析

YeWin's Idea: Buy around 88600, sell around 91000
Thursday's interest rate decision, the amplitude of the box is getting smaller and smaller, so I don't have high expectations for the next couple of days, just aim for short trades, the technical requirements are quite high, if you don't have much confidence in yourself, you can wait a bit, or follow Master Ye's rhythm closely, something big is coming, following it will be a pleasure $BTC #BTC走势分析

On December 8, how many stop-loss orders are hidden in this market?
First, let's talk about Ethereum - from 3040 it dropped straight through to 2910, and many thought it was entering a deep correction. However, in the early morning, the spike above 3130 directly hit 3010, providing ample room for two rounds of decline. Now both $BTC and $ETH are stuck in a state of tension after probing for a rebound, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut still stirring market sentiment.

$BTC Bitcoin's movement is more dramatic. Overnight, it touched a low of 87688 USD, then instantly surged to 91720, before falling back to oscillate above 90000. From a daily perspective, the MACD histogram is expanding upward, and the bulls still have strength, but the EMA30 resistance is stuck at 93600, while the upper Bollinger Band is guarding the 94500 line. Switching to a four-hour cycle, the MACD is nearing the end of its contraction; if it can hold above 92000, the probability of a golden cross between DIF and DEA is quite high.

The current key battleground is between 87000 and 92000. There is a clear buy support in the range of 87500 to 88000, while 92600 is a hurdle above; once breached, the upward space will be opened.

$ETH Ethereum displayed a textbook-level V-shaped reversal. After dipping to 2910, it quickly surged, once reaching around 3160, with an increase of over 8%; currently, after a pullback, it has again stabilized above 3130. Technically, the daily MACD bullish momentum appears slightly fatigued, and the four-hour chart shows signals of a trap followed by a surge. Resistance is concentrated in the 3180-3200 range, and above that, we look at 3250; the core defense line below is at the 3000 round number, with the range of 2900-2950 being the position the bulls must defend; whether it can hold directly determines the subsequent direction.
#爆仓了

Master Ye has evolved again. In the past, he would get beaten when prices rose, but now I have to take a bite of it. Of course, deep down, I love shorting it even more. Let's continue to follow my script 🤭

Recently, Master Ye has been doing quite well in trading, even on weekends, he made a wave of profits. However, even when trading becomes smoother, one must apply the brakes, calm down, and think about the next steps and plans.

Human greed and fear drive the market forward like waves. There is no continuous upward trend, nor will there be a continuous downward trend. Therefore, after moving the stop-loss for our short positions, we must remain alert to potential market rebounds at any time.

Currently, there are two probable market trends, and Master Ye will share his thoughts.

The first scenario is on the daily chart, where there will be another drop to complete the 5th wave, followed by a weekly level b-wave rebound. That is, drop first, then rebound, and then drop again.

The second scenario is that the 5 waves have been completed, and we are currently in the weekly level b-wave. That is, rebound first, then drop.

However, regardless of the scenario, the best time to short is at the high point of the weekly b-wave. Currently, there are three important resistance levels: 9.45w, 9.7w, and 10.4w, which is the area where I plan to short in batches. Betting on the decline of wave c. Generally, c-wave declines are particularly fierce, and this wave of shorting will yield significant profits.

However, looking at the current situation, it is not advisable to be overly bearish at this position. Although there may still be a new low, we must be wary of a possible b-wave rebound at any moment, so as not to have the correct direction but flatten our positions.

On a macro level, some positive news has been noted. For example, former New York Fed repurchase expert and Bank of America interest rate strategist Mark Cabana predicts that in addition to the widely expected 25 basis point rate cut, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will announce plans to purchase $45 billion in Treasury bills (T-bills) monthly next Wednesday. This debt purchase operation is set to be officially implemented in January 2026, aimed at injecting liquidity into the system to prevent further spikes in repo market interest rates.

In simple terms, the Federal Reserve has noticed signals of market liquidity exhaustion and plans to inject some liquidity. Combined with next Wednesday's interest rate meeting, volatility will increase next week.

Thus, my specific operation is to not chase shorts at this position, retain some of the short positions on hand, and patiently wait to add shorts at 9.45-9.7-10.4w. At the same time, in the short term, I might consider light positions for longs.

Master Ye's strategy remains primarily short, with some long positions as a supplement. If signals to go long appear, I will take light positions. If it reaches, I will also share with my students immediately $BTC #BTC走势分析

The current Federal Reserve has reached a stage where it must prepare a narrative for the next round of liquidity.
Unlike the direct economic stimulus of QE, the Federal Reserve will package its easing actions more discreetly.

In this FOMC meeting, we are likely to see some clues.
In fact, the Federal Reserve has already laid some groundwork to address liquidity issues.

The FOMC will stop its previous balance sheet reduction approach of not reinvesting maturing assets starting from December 1, meaning that it will return principal from agency debt/agency MBS into Treasury bills, while also extending the maturity of government bonds.

Next, the New York Fed trading desk clarified that starting in December, it will purchase Treasury bills in the secondary market to undertake these reinvestments and will announce operational arrangements monthly.

At the same time, it was mentioned in the last FOMC that increasing the proportion of Treasury bills would allow the Federal Reserve greater policy and reserve management flexibility without needing to significantly raise the total amount of reserves.

Therefore, in the coming months, something that is likely not QE but is indistinguishable from QE may emerge, with the most intense market discussions currently focused on RMP, or reserve management purchases.

So what is RMP?
The official explanation from the Federal Reserve is that as the economy grows, the demand for money will naturally increase. To ensure that there is enough money (reserves) in the banking system to handle daily payments and settlements, the Federal Reserve needs to passively buy some bonds to inject a little money into the market, maintaining sufficient liquidity.

Its purpose is very straightforward: to maintain the operation of the banking system and prevent a shortage of money from causing interest rates to spike. The operation is also very simple, only buying short-term Treasury bills.

Why is it said to be essentially similar to QE?
Although the Federal Reserve tries to distance itself from it, to the market and funding perspective, the operational principles of RMP and QE are identical.

QE is when the Federal Reserve creates dollars out of thin air and buys bonds, providing cash to the market. RMP also creates dollars out of thin air and buys bonds to let the market access cash. The result is the same: the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expands, and liquidity in the market increases.

For cryptocurrencies, U.S. stocks, and other risk assets, as long as the Federal Reserve is buying something, it is injecting liquidity. Whether it is to rescue the economy or maintain the operation of banks, as long as it is an injection of money, it will ultimately spill over into asset prices. $BTC #美联储何时降息？

Cryptocurrency Survival Guide: Three Lifesaving Rules Every Newcomer Should Memorize
What I want to say is always just three points, and each one can save your life.

① The crypto world is not a printing machine; it's an emotional rollercoaster.

Many people, on their first day, think about "getting rich quickly," but the next day they begin to experience "sudden death." Understand this: you are not earning trend money, but emotional money. When the market goes up, even worthless coins can soar; when the market drops, even blue chips can be halved.

To survive longer, you must have a survival mindset:

Always keep some bullets, don't go all in.

Don't gamble everything, don't leverage.

Have stop losses, but also have patience.

You are not here to gamble with your life; you are here to learn how to survive in volatility.

② Always prioritize mainstream coins, stay away from stories.

99% of "meme coins," "insider projects," and "friend recommendations" end up as jokes. Less than 1% can understand white papers, and even fewer can make money.
Remember this: if you don't understand it, don't touch it.
Mainstream coins rise slowly but won't suddenly disappear; worthless coins rise quickly but may leave even the project team running away.
For beginners, stability is the biggest victory.
Don't chase stories of turning hundreds into thousands; first, learn how not to lose your principal.

③ The real opponent is not the market, it's yourself.

The market always has opportunities, but you only have one principal.
You will find that losing money is never due to a bad market, but because your mindset collapsed.

A slight rise makes you fear missing out, chasing highs.

A slight drop makes you fear going to zero, cutting losses.

Listening to someone shout "buy" and jumping in, or hearing someone shout "sell" and clearing out.

This is not trading; it's emotional gambling. Real experts only do three things:

Follow the trend, don't predict.

Invest regularly, don't gamble on direction.

Maintain a steady mindset, don't be greedy.

In the crypto world, it's not about who can rush in faster, but about who can endure longer.
Getting rich quickly is hard, but surviving is actually possible.
Remember these three rules—
Don't go all in, don't listen to tips, don't act impulsively.
These three rules can save your life. $ETH #加密市场观察

A few days ago, a friend who has been in the cryptocurrency space for three years asked me:
"If you have 1 million USDT saved, would you throw it all into USDT to earn interest and just relax?"
I shook my head immediately—large sums of money have never survived on interest alone.
The truth is: many people make money slowly, not because of bad luck, but because their money is not working at all. You think you are waiting for the right opportunity, but in reality, your funds are not ready to 'seize opportunities' at all.
Take last month for example; my friend had 1 million in idle cash earning 8% annualized, and by the end of the year, he only got a little over 80,000. He himself thought it was absurdly slow. I asked him to send me a screenshot of his holdings, and it was clear right away—fully invested and stagnant, no rhythm, it’s surprising he could make any money at all.
Later, I talked to him about the 'three-tier capital model' commonly used by big investors, which breaks down like this:

First Tier: 20% Stable Base
This part is not meant for getting rich, but for stabilizing your mindset.
Investing in wealth management, mining, locking in nodes, platform activity subsidies… just putting a little in here and there, the key is to avoid panicking because you are fully invested, and also not to get overly excited by missed opportunities. Staying stable allows you to last longer.

Second Tier: 50% Arbitrage Main Force
This is where the bulk of the profits come from. No chasing trends, no all-in betting, just focusing on certain trading ranges.
Like when ETH dropped from 3435 to 3160 recently; the price levels were clear, risks were controllable, and using half of his holdings to ride it down, he could safely secure profits. At the end of the year, just relying on this tier would be enough to fill his stomach.

Third Tier: 30% Opportunity Ammo
Always leave yourself some bullets.
Real market movements, black swan events, new coin fluctuations often come unexpectedly. Last time a certain new coin's support crashed, I immediately shorted it and captured the cleanest profit. Opportunities will only be left for those who have money in hand.

The logic of this model is very simple:
20% to stabilize mindset, 50% for steady output, 30% to seize explosive opportunities. Money is moving, rhythm is there, and when opportunities come, you can catch them, which is naturally faster than just living off interest.

In short: It’s not that the market lacks opportunities; it’s that your money isn’t designed to be in a state where it can 'seize opportunities'.
If you also want your USDT to really work for you, first clarify your capital structure before discussing anything else. $ETH #代币化热潮

Talk about the logic of understanding the underlying principles of the cryptocurrency market. If you truly grasp this, it can raise your lower limits and broaden your upper limits.
The first logic: Don't think about getting rich overnight; prioritize capital preservation.
Ordinary people cannot comprehend the weight of this statement because they view 'capital' as money, while big players see 'capital' as the right to continue playing the game.
Once you lose enough to be asked to leave the table, you haven’t just lost money; you’ve lost all future possibilities.

The first principle of top players is simple:
Controllable losses are more important than significant gains.
As long as you are at the table, you can wait for the next opportunity with higher certainty;
But once you exit, all subsequent compounding, all time differences, all accumulation, become irrelevant to you.
So, big players are not conservative; they are more aggressive—
They reserve aggression for certainty and apply caution to uncertainty.
This is the true underlying logic of the wealthy being consistently wealthy:
First ensure survival, then talk about amplification.

The second logic: Where there are divergences and controversies, there are opportunities to make money.
Many people mistakenly believe that 'controversy = risk', but the mindset of big players is: 'controversy = mispricing = opportunity'.
Why is there no profit in consensus zones?
Because in places where everyone understands, there is no information asymmetry, nor judgment disparity;
Without a gap, you cannot make money.
The controversy zone is exactly the opposite.
It’s not because it’s stimulating, but because it requires depth of understanding.

When others can't understand, you can;
When others hesitate, you dare to position first;
When others start chasing, you are already capitalizing on the time difference.
The greater the controversy, the more understanding is needed;
The higher the understanding, the harder it is to replicate;
In places that are hard to replicate, the profits are thick.
Top players do not like to take risks; they like 'places that others have not yet figured out'.

These two logics are actually a complete wealth route:
The first sentence pulls you back from the edge of death,
The second sentence pushes you to heights that others cannot reach.
Ordinary people chase high profits and consensus;
Big players maintain their baseline and seek non-consensus.
The gap lies quietly opened in these two layers of logic.$BTC #加密市场观察

This week is when the real deal begins. The most intense wave of central bank decisions in 2025 is about to arrive, with the five major economies synchronously revealing their cards. Are your positions ready to take on the challenge?

First, let's talk about the main event——the hard battle at the Federal Reserve:
At 3:00 AM on Thursday, the FOMC interest rate decision will be announced, along with updates on economic expectations.
Half an hour later, Powell will hold a press conference.

Don't just focus on the Americans; the others are busy too:
Will the Bank of Canada follow suit and cut rates?
Where will the safe-haven funds flow in Switzerland?
The actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia often serve as a barometer for commodities.
In Bank of England Governor Bailey's speeches, there are always a few key hints hidden.

The market currently gives a nearly 90% probability for a rate cut, but you need to understand——what truly stirs the market is not whether the rates are cut, but how the dot plot is drawn and what Powell says. The biggest fear is "the shoe dropping turns into a bearish signal," and the aftermath of expectations being fulfilled can be the most severe.

In the face of such macro waves, first think about how to survive, then ponder how to profit. In these few days, look less at candlestick charts and more at the calendar. BTC, ETH, BNB, all must act according to the central banks' mood. $BTC #美SEC推动加密创新监管

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