KUPO CRYPTO

🫡Why did the Fed's first interest rate cut cause the market to collapse??? (The first time, mind you).
🤓🤓🤓 Let me give you a few examples of the sharp market drops in the U.S. S&P 500 index.
- In 2001 (Dotcom bubble) after the Fed's first rate cut, it took 3 years for the S&P 500 index to return to its previous peak before the rate cut.
- In 2008 (Financial crisis) after the Fed's first rate cut, it also took 3 years for the S&P 500 index to regain the 2007 level.
- In 2020 when the Fed cut rates, the market also saw continuous sell-offs, and it took over a year to recover.
🥰🥰🥰 So what are the reasons that the Fed's first rate cut caused such a significant market collapse?
🧐There are 4 main reasons:
1️⃣. The Fed cutting rates is a signal of a weak and struggling economy, making investors concerned about withdrawing capital, especially in volatile markets like crypto.
2️⃣. The market had grown strongly during the rate hike period; when rates are cut, it seems the market has peaked and needs correction.
3️⃣. The margin borrowing rate was pushed up high in anticipation of the Fed's rate cut.
4️⃣. Time is needed for the Fed's policies to take effect.
🚫🚫🚫So whatever you do, don't fomo when the market is rising on the day the rate cut is announced (the market won't rise gradually, it will rise slowly, slowly, making you regret not getting in). There are many stocks that will run to that deadline.
🥰 Finally: this is a personal opinion, not investment advice. No one is going to compile these hidden truths for you. No one works and gets insulted for being stupid and still continues. All for the Vietnamese community that is not easily led astray 😍
#MarketPullback #BTC #ETH #Fed #FOMO

🤔Many people ask me how to play in this market. This is my way of playing, I don't encourage others to follow. Just read for reference.
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✅️Ad's Long position is still open since BTC 109 and hasn't cut any orders, there have been times when DCA has dropped significantly. If BTC breaks 104, I will cut the order and think it will be a downtrend.
✅️I will FOMO before September 17th. I will cut all orders before the interest rate announcement. For the following 2 reasons:
1️⃣Reducing interest rates when the US economy is weak will only lead to a short increase in FOMO trading and then a significant drop.
2️⃣If interest rates are not reduced, there will also be short selling.
----> In general, whether there is a reduction in interest rates or they remain the same, you will still face losses. The only difference is that reducing interest rates leads to a long-term downtrend, while keeping rates the same leads to a short-term downtrend..
🤫🤫🤫 Important note: this is my way of trading. Each person has their own thoughts, ideas, and different ways of playing 😃 #BTC #ETH

Interest rate decision: 2 AM Thursday, December 11. The two previous interest rate cuts have already been leaked, how will it be this time? Once is too much, three times is a crowd, right? No matter what, in 2026, we still have a long journey ahead. Take advantage of this opportunity before going to the island #btc #ETH #FOMC‬⁩ .

Surely you don't know, the Fed has stopped tightening quantitative easing (QT) since December 1, 2025. And if the Fed reduces interest rates soon, I hope they won't deceive you anymore. Forget about the Short button.
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🆙️ The Fed has just injected the largest liquidity since the Covid period into the market. #BTC #ETH

⏯️Explanation of yesterday's drop
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The center of drama is... Japan and the story of Yen "out of time cheap":
The yield on Japanese government bonds has surged to its highest level in about 17 years:
10-year bonds around 1.86–1.87%
2-year bonds around 1.0–1.02%
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled quite clearly:
"Consideration may be given to raising interest rates at the meeting on 18–19/12 if the data aligns with forecasts."
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This statement makes the market understand one thing:
The era of ultra-cheap Yen is truly nearing its end.
✅️For many years, numerous global funds and traders have employed the yen carry trade strategy:
✅️Borrowing Yen at extremely low interest rates → Converting to USD → Investing in BTC, ETH, and other risky assets, with leverage → Prices rise, profiting from both the spread and the price increase.
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Borrowing Yen is no longer as cheap as before.
Positions using Yen as funding are forced to shrink or close.

Wanting to repay Yen → must sell some BTC, ETH… → selling pressure coincides with thin liquidity → prices drop quickly, deeply, and are hard to support.

😍Simply put:
The cheap money valve from Japan is being tightened → carry trade unwind → crypto, especially BTC, takes the first hit.

😁Today is the day the market resets leverage, not a day to prove "the ability to endure pain".

In the long term, I still lean towards the scenario:

➡️➡️➡️Bitcoin is in a major cycle,

✅️Shocks like "tightening Yen - unwind carry trade - liquidating leverage" are things... almost unavoidable.

✅️When the market calms down, positions are liquidated, money always finds its way to continue – and risky assets like BTC often see a return of capital quite early if the macro picture does not completely collapse. #ETH #BTC

Hey, recently the Khanh Hoa region has been hit by severe floods, I'm still safe, trying to help everyone so I can't check the chart frequently. Tonight there are many important news, watch out for MM continuing to sweep. The small frame from 4 hours down is still fluctuating. As for the 3-day frame and above, BTC is almost done correcting. Temporary bottom 88-89. #BTC #ETH

🚢 "A small leak can sink a great ship" – And those small leaks are quietly sinking your finances -- This is a famous saying by Benjamin Franklin.
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- Some of you have asked me, "Hey, I see you up high, how do you always have money to buy after the crashes?? Are you just bragging??".
➡️ Elliott Wave theory also clarifies that within a down wave, there are also retracement waves. The important thing is whether you have the courage to cut or think it will go up again. So when should you hold and cut losses during a retracement wave.
✅️ Hold when indicators like RSI and MACD agree on an upward trend, especially observing BTC and Dominance. (According to my observations, Dominance is the most reliable, on a 4-hour timeframe, when Dominance meets strong resistance and falls.
✅️ When should you cut part of your position to wait to buy again: that is when BTC's main trend is down, and Dominance shows signs of closing with a green candle on the 4-hour timeframe (especially when meeting support below.
➡️➡️➡️➡️ So what should we do now.
- BTC on the 3-day chart is meeting strong support at 88-89 and is turning upward, however, it cannot go up immediately, it needs to test more. Dominance on the MACD chart is gradually turning red, and selling pressure has returned.
😁 You know my perspective, how to trade depends on you, okay #BTC #ETH

There are plans that have been laid out beforehand. But I still calculate it will be done Up before I decide. Who would have thought it would come back to decide before Up. TRULY it is a crazy reason #BTC #ETH

If you don't buy now, when will you buy? BTC is moving slowly to find the bottom. You should only buy the product, not ft even though it is very close to the bottom (because it could still be swept).
- This is not investment advice, guys. The view was given by the admin at the beginning of the month, just a bit regrettable that it was swept too deep. #BTC #ETH

The ad has returned after more than 15 days of being restricted. I will provide a view for 2 months for everyone. Who knows, I might get restricted again and not be with everyone.
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✅️ Coming up, everyone will not analyze technicals anymore.
BTC will break the peak. Alt will dance for about 2 months and maybe around before the Lunar New Year if we analyze, everyone will close positions. And the market will be on a downturn for about 6-8 months.
➡️ BTC view: 145-160.
➡️ Alt will have opportunities for everyone to recover except for junk coins.
I have given this view a long time ago. Hopefully, it will happen soon. #MarketPullback #BTC #ETH

Huh, what did I do to suddenly get blocked continuously for these days? The direction given by the organizers is to lock. I want to notify you guys but I can't #BTC #ETH

Some information for you to consider. Sorry because the admin cannot give their opinion (to avoid account suspension). The old post still has the admin's opinion until Q1/2026
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✅️1 AM on 30/10 decision on interest rates. 85% chance of a 25-point reduction.
✅️1:30 AM Fed press conference to announce the direction ahead.
➡️ Information
- Gold chart has broken.
- Dom chart is still being tested.
- Alt/BTC chart is near the bottom of the M frame.
------> You choose the option #BTC #ETH

If you ask, I will answer, I am not buying gold at this time. The recommended price you can buy is 18xx-19xx in 2028. #GOLD

Yesterday, Ad mentioned that the brothers made slight adjustments. It's almost done, the altcoins should be fine by the end of today or tomorrow. If BTC is still adjusting, the altcoins won't be strong yet. #BTC

The old man of the BTC flips faces faster than the old lady, he has even managed to increase a little more before adjusting healthily. Activate the mode of strength, although it is still down 10% because of the recent crash. Isn't that frustrating?
- Selling at USD 29-30 is nice. For those who hold USD, let it crash and let Bitcoin crash as well. #BTC

Do you see anything? The US has temporarily not imposed tariffs on China. #BTC #ETH

This morning, some people came to ask. Hey admin, you are the only one who is calling for an increase.
- There are also a few other friends who called for a decrease the other day, and today they are calling for an increase again. Most of them are shouting downtrend.
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😛 In this crazy market, technical analysis is just an excuse to help you have an invisible support point to enter orders. The important thing is that you grasp the macro aspect, so your losses will be less. AI technology can analyze even more accurately than us, but if you're going to burn out, you'll still burn out; if you're going to lose, you'll still lose. The important thing is up to you. #BTC #ETH

Many people ask if I play Vietnamese stocks???.
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I also play, but as a long-term shareholder, I rarely sell. Soon, the US will reduce inflation because the Fed lowers interest rates, and the US has been bearing inflation for the world for 3 years now. Transferring the inflation burden to Asia, especially Vietnam. Soon, the VN-index will have a few more drops. Anyone who accidentally bought at the peak just now should consider entering DCA for the first time in about 2-3 months. #vnindex

🤩On October 23, Trump signed a pardon for Cz, which could pave the way for Binance – the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange – to resume operations in the U.S., after the company pleaded guilty in 2023 for violating anti-money laundering laws and was banned from operating in this market.
- Next week, Trump will meet with Elder Xi to negotiate trade.
- Next week is also the decision-making meeting.
➡️➡️ All roads lead to the great flood and the end of the bullish wave of BTC.
✅️Target 145-160. And Alt is also making its way back to shore to go wandering next year.
😅Note, there is still a sweep from here to there. And the time to exit the ad stock also has Up in the old post. #BTC #ETH

Continue Dex exchange activities stopped. #BTC #ETH