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🧨 The latest Bitcoin drop wasn’t “just another correction.”
It was a clear capitulation event.
And you can prove it by looking at three signals that rarely show up together:

1️⃣ Hash Rate plunged over 30 days
Miners shutting down machines = real pressure on the ecosystem.
When miners start bleeding, it usually means the market is hitting its limit.
2️⃣ Price drawdown hit extreme levels
A fast, violent drop — way outside the historical median.
This isn’t a technical move… it’s pain. It’s forced selling. It’s liquidation.
3️⃣ Active supply spiked
People who usually hold BTC for months (or years) started spending their coins.
This behavior only appears when sentiment breaks.
When these three signals flash at the same time, the Capitulation Oscillator shoots up — and that almost always marks the final phase of a downtrend or a flattening phase like we saw in 2021.

It’s not a guarantee of an immediate bottom, of course.
But historically, moments like this are rare… and often open opportunities that only show up once or twice per cycle.
If you follow on-chain data, you know exactly what this means.

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When the annual Rate of Change of the S&P500 drops and turns negative, BTC has historically found its price bottom.
A simple metric — yet completely off the radar for most people.
And here’s the crazy part: this doesn’t apply only to the S&P 500.
Several global indices show the same pattern, revealing how stocks and Bitcoin share a deep liquidity relationship.
When one strengthens, the other weakens… and then they switch roles again.

And now, on Alphractal, you can analyze Rate of Change for hundreds of metrics — macro, on-chain, sentiment, and market data — all with one click.
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Traders holding short positions in $BNB have started to get liquidated!
The aggregated 1-month and 3-month liquidation levels showed a strong concentration of positions set to be liquidated above $900.
Historically, when a large number of shorts get liquidated, it often leads to the formation of local tops for a certain period, until new liquidation levels are established.

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Altcoins like $ENA and $TRUMP are showing extremely high leverage, while ENA, OKB, ARB, and $MKR record the highest 24h Liquidations / Open Interest ratios.
ENA and TRUMP rank among the top altcoins by Market Cap with the highest Open Interest / Market Cap ratios, signaling high risk when these values are elevated. In other words, traders are heavily speculating and opening leveraged positions.
Meanwhile, the 24h Liquidations / Open Interest ratio shows how much of the high Open Interest was liquidated in the past 24 hours — an indicator of volatility and mass liquidations. Altcoins like ENA, OKB, ARB, and MKR currently have the highest levels.
For more conservative trading, avoiding these altcoins reduces the chances of liquidation, since volatility driven by speculation will be more present in them.

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🚨 Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score in Focus

On August 13th, Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score reached the same level observed in March 2024 — a period after which ETH failed to deliver strong performance.

The MVRV Z-Score measures the deviation between market cap and realized cap, adjusted by historical volatility. It helps identify periods of market euphoria and attractive accumulation opportunities.

📊 Looking at the historical trend, the metric currently sits below the orange on-chain indecision zone. In the past, this region has acted both as a local resistance and a pullback area, depending on whether the market was in a bull or bear phase.

➡️ For a more optimistic outlook, the indicator needs to break above the August peak (1.33). Today it stands at 0.9, which suggests Ethereum may still face a period of sideways consolidation and potential selling pressure. In other words, a reading of 0.9 is considerably low for the start of a strong bullish cycle.

🔎 Tracking the MVRV Z-Score daily is key to understanding whether speculation in the market is increasing or fading.

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$ETH #Ethereum

🐳Whales & Sharks Keep Accumulating Chainlink

Chainlink’s Realized Price — the average acquisition cost of all coins in circulation, weighted by their last movement — is currently around $15.1. This level could act as strong support in case of deeper corrections, making it a key accumulation zone.

What’s more, the number of wallets holding 100k–1M LINK and those with over 1M LINK has been steadily increasing, signaling consistent interest from large investors.

👉With many addresses still sitting in profit, the data suggests whales and sharks remain confident in Chainlink’s long-term outlook — a potential backbone for the next bull market.

$LINK #Chainlink

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💥 Liquidation Levels – Short-Term Overview for Top Cryptos

Our aggregated Liquidation Levels indicator reveals clear differences in trader behavior between BTC and Altcoins:

Bitcoin ($BTC):
BTC surged past $120K in open interest, hitting a key bear (short) liquidation pool, which triggered over $27M in short liquidations in the past 24 hours. Many traders had their stops taken out.

Ethereum ($ETH ):
ETH saw heavy long accumulation over the past 3 days, making it more vulnerable today, with increased long liquidations. Still, net positioning remains long-biased.

$BNB :
Initially, many traders opened shorts, but sentiment has shifted toward longs.
Above $780: Strong short concentration.
Below $740: Bulls may face pressure.

$XRP :
One of the top altcoins with a high short-term long concentration, which has weakened its price.
Below $0.34 could trigger further downside for bulls.

⚠️ Tracking liquidation levels can give you an edge, especially in times of indecision. Avoid unnecessary stops and liquidations.

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🔥 Buy Pressure on BTC & ETH remains strong, according to our Buy/Sell Pressure Delta metric.
Meanwhile, ADA is about to enter a positive zone, suggesting a strategic opportunity to accumulate.
On the other hand, SOL shows relatively lower Buy Pressure compared to BTC and ETH, indicating caution.
📊 About the Metric:
Buy Pressure = Measures how strong buyers are in the market.
Sell Pressure = Measures how aggressive sellers are.
Buy/Sell Pressure Delta = The difference between the two, revealing market imbalance.
✅ Positive Delta = Buying dominates → Potential uptrend.
❌ Negative Delta = Selling dominates → Potential downtrend.
💡 Tip: When Buy Pressure stays high but Sell Pressure starts rising, it could signal a market turning point. Use the Delta to spot trend shifts early.

Stay ahead. Follow the pressure. Make smart moves. 🚀
👉Alphractal .com

$BTC $ETH $ADA

Bitcoin Miners Face Low Profitability, Yet Selling Pressure Remains Low
The current state of the Bitcoin mining industry is raising important discussions about sustainability and competition. Despite facing historically low profitability, miners are still holding onto their BTC reserves. Here are the key points:
1️⃣Transaction Fees at 12-Year Lows
Total fees paid on the Bitcoin network are at their lowest levels since 2012. This is strongly linked to the low on-chain activity this cycle, reducing miner revenues significantly.
2️⃣Low Miner Sell Pressure
The Miner Sell Pressure metric remains at low levels, indicating that miners are not aggressively selling their holdings despite declining profitability.
3️⃣Network Difficulty Still High
Although the hash rate has recently dropped, mining difficulty hasn't adjusted yet. This lag further squeezes miner margins and delays network equilibrium.
4️⃣Hash Rate Volatility Hits Record Highs
The Bitcoin network is experiencing the highest hash rate fluctuations in its history. This is likely caused by large mining operations shutting down ASIC machines, possibly due to falling revenues and low network demand.
While the mining environment is challenging, the fact that miners haven't started selling off their reserves is a positive sign. It’s likely that some mining pools have scaled down operations in response to reduced global usage of the Bitcoin blockchain. As BTC trades above $107K, we may simply be witnessing miners reallocating their hash power to adapt to the current demand.
In past cycles, miners typically sold during rapid price increases and periods of high blockchain activity. The current lack of both suggests a period of adjustment rather than capitulation. For now, it's a matter of closely monitoring the metrics.

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Lower BTC Leverage Compared to December 2024
BTC is currently showing lower leverage than it did in December 2024. According to the Open Interest to Market Cap ratio—a solid indicator of speculative risk in the derivatives market—leverage levels are now lower than what we observed at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. This is a positive sign, as it encourages new positions and increases institutional interest.

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BTC’s Sharpe Ratio is rising again along with the price! This shows that the risk-adjusted return is improving, indicating greater efficiency in Bitcoin’s upward movement.
Stay tuned!

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🚨 Asia now hosts the largest node on the Lightning Network
The new OKX node, with 512 BTC in capacity and 644 channels, is running on Alibaba Cloud in Hong Kong — taking the lead in network liquidity.
Another node gaining attention is Kraken’s, which is interestingly operating from India.
🔍 What stands out?
Historically, Amazon (AWS) and Google Cloud have dominated the hosting of major Lightning Network nodes.
But that’s starting to change...
💡 The rise of Asian players like Alibaba Cloud, OKX, and others signals a potential geographic — and even political — decentralization of Bitcoin’s second-layer infrastructure.
🌏 Are we witnessing the beginning of a new phase for the Lightning Network, with Asia taking the lead?
With some of the most populous countries in the world, Asia holds massive potential to drive the next wave of technological adoption — and Bitcoin’s Lightning Network may be right at the center of it.

🔗Alphractal

Interestingly, Bitcoin has remained above the RSI 1000 trendline — just as it did in previous bull markets.
The last successful test of this trendline occurred near $75,000.
It still seems too early to call this a bear market, as historically, the RSI 1000 had to break below this trendline and retest it (a red flag) before confirming a trend reversal.
Until that happens, this may not be the last selling opportunity — and it could signal that the market still has strength to continue for a few more months.

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#MarketPullback #BTC $BTC

Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio: Opportunity Signal on the Horizon🔭

Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio is presenting an interesting scenario for attentive investors. This indicator, which measures the risk-adjusted return of an asset, is calculated on an annualized basis by dividing excess return by the period's volatility.
Analyzing the chart, we can observe that the Sharpe Ratio (blue line) has not yet reached the upper trend line - a level that has historically proven very accurate as a market peak indicator. Currently, the indicator is in a zone suggesting controlled risk, far from the extremes that characterized the previous tops of 2013, 2017, and 2021.

The upper trend line (red dashed line) has functioned as an excellent signal for moments of excessive euphoria in the Bitcoin market. The fact that we haven't touched this region yet indicates there may be room for additional appreciation in the current cycle.
It's worth noting that current Sharpe Ratio values have historically occurred during both optimistic rallies and pessimistic corrections. This dual nature of the indicator at these levels reinforces the importance of maintaining disciplined risk management strategies, as the market could move in either direction from here.
Investors should monitor this indicator closely, as when the Sharpe Ratio approaches the "Extreme Risk" zone, it has historically been a good time to consider profit-taking.

The current moment suggests cautious optimism: there's still potential, but always with proper risk management - especially considering that these levels have previously marked both strong upward moves and significant corrections.

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#TradingTypes101 #TrumpMediaBitcoinTreasury #BinanceAlphaAlert

$CAKE is looking great for day trading!
It’s the most volatile altcoin on the 30-minute timeframe right now.

Our Alpha signals are unlocking trades with controlled risk.🔥

Every day, I’m getting more confident — this cycle’s Altcoin Season is looking promising.

Opportunities are everywhere… if you know where to look.
👀

🚨There have been 5 Altcoin Seasons since April!
And you didn’t even notice... because you don’t have access to the right information.💡

The market never stops! At any moment, several altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin — and it’s happening right now.

If you look at the intraday, you’ll see waves of micro Altcoin Seasons happening. And guess what?

In the next 15 minutes, a new wave of micro Altcoin Season might start!

That’s how smart money plays: rotating into altcoins, stacking more BTC and stablecoins… and repeating the cycle.
Those who understand the game are always one step ahead.🔥

🚨 The Stablecoin Ratio Channel is flashing its first signs of short-term risk for Bitcoin. However, the Stablecoin Ratio Channel (Long-Term) is only halfway through its cycle!

This powerful metric helps track liquidity shifts between stablecoins and Bitcoin.
🔵 When the ratio is low, it indicates an excess of stablecoins in the market — typically a bullish signal for BTC accumulation.
🔴 When the ratio reaches higher levels, it suggests growing pressure for BTC to be sold back into stablecoins.
Right now, the short-term signal indicates elevated risk, which aligns with the strong resistance we previously mentioned between $113K and $114K. This level could trigger BTC-to-stablecoin rotations.

However, when we zoom out to the Stablecoin Ratio Channel (Long-Term), the metric is only halfway through its historical range.
In previous cycles, this mid-channel region acted as a temporary resistance — sometimes leading to healthy corrections within bull markets.

On the flip side, during bear markets, it also served as a distribution zone before further downside.

In summary:
✅ BTC is likely approaching a short-term resistance.
🔄 However, the macro trend is still undecided. BTC could rally a bit more, face a correction soon after, and then resume its uptrend in the coming months — depending on how liquidity flows evolve.
👉Follow the best on-chain metrics at Alphractal to stay ahead of the market.

🚨 Short-Term Holders Are No Longer Accumulating Bitcoin — Distribution is Back!

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price has pushed Short-Term Holders (STH) to start distributing their coins. But what does this mean for the market?
Historically, when the STH Supply starts to decline, Bitcoin tends to be near major cycle tops. In other words, as the price increases, demand slows down while selling pressure rises — a classic sign that the bull cycle is entering its final stages.
Currently, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price sits at $94.5K, acting as the final support base until this group goes underwater (holds at a loss) again. Meanwhile, the Long-Term Holder Realized Price is at $33K and rising, showing a clear behavioral divergence between long-term and short-term investors.

💡 Onchain Curiosity:
Whenever the STH Realized Price crosses above the LTH Realized Price, it has signaled the beginning of a new Bull Market — every single time. This demonstrates the power of Onchain Analytics.

⚠️ Important Note:
Despite current STH distribution, it’s worth noting that in 2021, Bitcoin still managed to reach new all-time highs even with this behavior. There is still room for upside, but macro onchain signals and the symmetric halving cycle suggest a significant correction could begin after October 2025.

🔍 Dive deeper into Onchain Metrics at Alphractal and stay ahead of the market with data-driven insights.

👀Few investors are taking profits.

Both short-term and long-term holders are holding onto their positions, showing behavior very similar to what we saw after July 2021 — even as BTC reached its all-time high of $69K.

This suggests there is still no widespread euphoria in the market.
For global sentiment to return with strength, BTC may need to climb well beyond $110K — perhaps even $140K.

It’s worth noting: the biggest profit-taking moments in this cycle happened between March and April 2024, and again between December 2024 and January 2025.

Until then, we continue to watch a market that has yet to “wake up” to the potential of the next phase.

Alphractal