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The biggest confusion in the crypto circle now: Does the four-year bull-bear cycle still count? If this bull market sees Bitcoin peak at 126,000 and then turns bearish, then the previous strategies of 'crazy rise to the top, sharp drop to the bottom' seem to have really failed—after all, the last bull market ended with a 'banana-style crazy rise', but now it’s slow and fluctuating. Everyone wants to sell early to lock in profits, completely lacking the previous enthusiasm.
But in fact, you haven't noticed that this bear market is already different. The decline is no longer the beginning of panic, but rather a good opportunity to pick up chips.
1. The logic of the bear market has been rewritten: large funds are supporting the market, and it won't drop to the previous lows.

Last night, ETH surged and fell back in a critical resistance zone. Many players who followed short-term strategies have already secured profits, but market divergence has also widened — some are bullish on breaking 3800, while others are worried about a pullback to the 3000 level. The answer is hidden in 'who is buying and selling' and 'technical structure.' This article will help you analyze the situation thoroughly and accurately grasp the subsequent rhythm.
1. Capital situation: Institutional chip exchange has solidified the 'iron bottom,' while the giant whales in the waves hide lethal traps.
The core of ETH's rise and fall has never been retail sentiment, but rather the game logic of large funds. This time, 800 million in capital entered the market, behind which are two types of main forces in a hidden confrontation.

In the past week, global markets have entered a rare state of 'collective silence': the S&P 500 fell for three consecutive days from a high position, Bitcoin plummeted from $108,000 to $98,000, and even gold, known for its safe-haven properties, dropped from $4,381 per ounce to around $3,930. Countless investors exclaimed, 'I don't understand'—why did the market fall into a 'cash crunch' when the Federal Reserve just announced a 25 basis point rate cut on October 30, a theoretically 'liquidity-boosting moment'?
The answer lies in the 'invisible battlefield' of liquidity: when the U.S. Treasury becomes a 'super money-sucking beast', combined with the Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet reduction, the liquidity released by the rate cut is like a drop in the bucket. This funding gap caused by policy 'misalignment' is the true culprit behind the simultaneous decline of all assets.

On November 3, panic sentiment in the crypto market erupted. Bitcoin hit a low of $105,852, dropping over 4% from the previous day's high; Ethereum also dove, with its market value evaporating by over $8 billion within 24 hours. As retail investors flooded the community with “Is the bear market here?”, the data had already provided the answer: this crash is not a trend reversal, but a liquidity crisis triggered by a “cash shortage.”​
1. The root cause of the crash: a drained market, 163 billion in US Treasury bonds as a “suction machine”​
The decline in the crypto market is essentially a “double strangulation” of macro liquidity—on one side, the government shutdown leads to a “halt in liquidity”, and on the other side, US Treasury auctions trigger a “funds siphoning.”​

On November 4, the panic sentiment in the cryptocurrency market completely erupted. Within just 24 hours, the total market value of global cryptocurrency assets plummeted from $3.69 trillion to $3.56 trillion, evaporating $130 billion in market value. The fear and greed index dropped sharply from 42 to 21, directly plunging into the 'extreme fear' zone — this round of decline is not a coincidence, but an inevitable result of the exhaustion of liquidity at the macro level and the cooling expectations of interest rate cuts.
1. Double macro blow: funds being withdrawn + interest rate cuts cooling down
The recent decline in the cryptocurrency market is primarily driven by two significant changes in the U.S. macro market, with risk assets being the first to bear the brunt.

The "unexpected shutdown" of the U.S. financial regulatory system is delivering a disruptive gift to the crypto industry. When the Senate voted down the funding bill for the 13th time, 90% of SEC employees were forced to take unpaid leave, leaving this agency, which holds the power to approve and deny crypto assets, completely paralyzed. No one could have predicted that this political stalemate in Washington would turn the long-awaited dream of "altcoin ETF listings" into reality — Bitwise's Solana staking ETF (BSOL), Canary's Litecoin ETF (LTCC), and Hedera's HBAR ETF all rushed to land on the NYSE and Nasdaq within three days, completing a "surprise listing" on the world's most stringent financial stage.

Ethereum spot ETF market has more good news: According to the latest data from SoSoValue, yesterday nine U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs achieved 'zero outflows' with all showing positive gains, and the total net inflow for the day reached $134 million. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA led the pack with a daily net inflow of $72.49 million, bringing its historical cumulative fundraising to over $14.226 billion; Bitwise's ETHW followed closely, with a daily inflow of $22.59 million, accumulating a net inflow of $430 million. As of the time of publication, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs has risen to $28.354 billion, with their net assets accounting for 5.69% of Ethereum's total market value, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached as high as $14.487 billion.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's statement that 'China is ready to negotiate' has given the global markets a different atmosphere - just two days ago, outsiders were still speculating that the U.S. and China would 'tough it out' over tariff disputes, and now the signal for negotiations has clearly lit up. Accompanying this shift is a dramatic upheaval in the global asset landscape: the A-share rare earth sector has evaporated over 300 billion in market value in two days, while the net value of U.S.-China trade-related ETFs has fallen below this year's low, and including the valuation adjustments triggered by the global industrial chain restructuring, the 'disappeared' value in this shadow war has approached 30 trillion.

A tweet from former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes directly ignited the celebration in the privacy coin sector—he publicly stated that 'ZEC (Zcash) could reach 10,000 dollars in the future,' and the market immediately responded: ZEC surged 750% within three months, with a single-day peak increase of 28%, reaching a price of 359 dollars, and its market cap surpassed 5 billion dollars, setting a new historical high.
This surge seems to be the result of 'big players promoting' but is actually a resonance of 'halving expectations + institutional actions + the popularity of privacy coins.' However, beneath the celebration, risks are also surging: a sevenfold increase in three months means profit-taking is already saturated, and with the inherent regulatory risks of privacy coins, those chasing highs may very well become 'the bag holders.' Understanding the underlying logic and potential risks of ZEC's rise is essential to remain clear-headed in this celebration.

When Trump's pardon officially takes effect, Zhao Changpeng's name instantly ignited the global crypto circle - this is not just an ordinary judicial exemption, but a super game involving the flow of 54.5 billion dollars in assets, capable of overturning the global cryptocurrency power structure.

Tracing back to the starting point of this game, in 2023, Binance stumbled in the U.S. due to flaws in its anti-money laundering system, facing a hefty fine of 4.3 billion dollars, a personal fine of 50 million dollars for Zhao Changpeng, and nearly four months of imprisonment, which once made this crypto giant almost 'sentenced to death' in the U.S. market. Now that the pardon is in place, the White House explicitly stated it is to reverse the Biden administration's tone of 'crypto crackdown', and Zhao Changpeng quickly expressed his intention to help the U.S. build a 'global crypto capital'. Anyone with insight can see that this is a re-competition for the dominance of the crypto industry by the U.S.

Chinese Meme coin track welcomes a historic moment - Binance officially announces that 'Binance Life' will soon launch contract trading! It's not the lower-threshold spot trading, but the leveraged futures market where long and short bets are placed. This news instantly ignited the crypto community: for this Meme coin that once 'went viral' through memes, landing on the contract section of the largest exchange in the world means officially upgrading from 'community play' to 'global capital battleground'; for retail investors, this is both a 'traffic dividend window' and a 'high-risk trap' - 3x leverage can double the profit but can also make the principal instantly go to zero. Tonight's launch is bound to be a bloody battle for real money; understanding the rules and maintaining the bottom line is essential to survive in this frenzy.

From 804 Japan's interest rate hike crash, to 203 Ethereum's bloodbath, and then to 1011 altcoin collapse — this round of market has experienced three significant crashes, each accompanied by the shout of 'the bear market is here'. Now the market is caught in a contradiction: on one side, Bitcoin's high position is weakening, short-term benefits are exhausted, and retail investors are 'afraid to bottom out and too lazy to buy the dip' in altcoins; on the other side, BNB has rebounded quickly after a sharp decline, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are clear, while the slow bull rhythm led by institutions continues. Is the turning point from bull to bear upon us, or is there a golden layout opportunity under the panic sentiment? Analyzing the differences in these three crashes and the current market signals will make the answer clearer.

The "cross-industry operations of competitors" in the crypto industry shocked the entire network — Early in the morning, Coinbase suddenly announced on its official website that BNB would be included in its listing roadmap, which means that Binance's core platform token is about to be listed on its biggest competitor's platform. As soon as the news broke, BNB surged by 3% briefly before quickly retreating, currently fluctuating around $1164, with a 24-hour decline still near 5%. This seemingly "abnormal" operation is certainly not just a simple business decision: on one side, Binance is deeply embroiled in a strong liquidation controversy and rumors of capital outflow, while He Yi's urgent clarification failed to change market anxiety; on the other side, Coinbase is promoting free listings through the "Blue Carpet Plan," creating a stark contrast with rumors of Binance's "high listing fees." Coinbase’s decision to put BNB on the agenda at this time is either to "take advantage of the situation to grab users" or to "open the door to compliance for BNB in the U.S." Three layers of deep logic are hidden behind it.

The BNB market is brewing big moves! On-chain data shows that several whale addresses holding over 100,000 BNB have accumulated 32,000 coins (valued at approximately 38.72 million USD) in the 1200-1215 USD range over the past 24 hours. This sign of 'low-level concentrated accumulation,' combined with the U.S. economic data set to be released tonight, makes tonight's BNB market full of variables. As an analyst with years of experience in the crypto market, I must remind everyone: this is not just an ordinary sideways movement, but rather the 'eve of the decisive battle' between bulls and bears. Retail investors must first clarify the three core aspects: data impact, market signals, and operational strategies to keep up with the rhythm.

The rekindled hope has been extinguished again - after a brief recovery in the crypto market, it has once again plunged. Investors who were still hoping for a 'V-shaped reversal' yesterday must now face reality: the oversold rebound was just a 'flash in the pan'. The upcoming period of volatility and correction will be the true test of patience and strategy. Although Bitcoin is still struggling at the $110,000 mark, the scars left by the $20 billion liquidation, the gradually cooling market sentiment, and the doubts about whether the 'bull market has ended' make this round of fluctuations full of uncertainty. To survive in this market and even seize opportunities, one must first clarify three core questions: How stable is the support at $110,000? What strategy should be used during the volatile period? Which pitfalls must absolutely be avoided?

‘Using the shell of US stocks, trading the money from the crypto circle, and profiting from the price difference of retail investors’— this set of operations played to the extreme by Wall Street is turning the crypto market into a playground for capital harvesting. From buying a Nasdaq shell for 5 million to mobilizing 10 billion in funds for a pump-and-dump scheme, the entire process is interconnected and guaranteed to profit, while the ones left holding the bag are always the retail investors chasing high prices in the crypto circle. Today, let's take '10 million dollars in startup capital' as an example to dissect this 'perverse play' that even institutions envy.​
1. 10 million startup: Five steps to build the 'Coin-Stock Harvesting Machine'​

The cryptocurrency market value ranking welcomes a historic moment — BNB surpasses USDT with a market value of 180 billion dollars, rising to third place globally, only behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is not a random ranking fluctuation, but a complete explosion of the value logic of platform tokens: from 'exchange fee discount tools' to 'core assets supporting an 8.6 billion TVL ecosystem'. BNB's comeback not only reshapes the market value pattern of the cryptocurrency market but also frees platform tokens from the label of 'niche speculative products', truly standing at the center stage of mainstream assets.
1. The confidence of an 180 billion market value: it's not just the price rise, but the ecological 'hard data' that supports it.

These 2 levels determine the big bearish candle for ETH, leaving short-term traders in the crypto space confused! Suddenly dropping in volume from around $4500, with a maximum single-day drop of over 4%, many retail investors who chased the rise in the past two days were directly trapped at high positions. Some panicked and cut losses, while others guessed it was the main force's washout—actually, there's no need to get caught up in 'washout or dump', the key is to look at two core points: the bullish-bearish boundary at $4380 and the resistance level at $4440. Keep a close eye on these two positions; whether to short or stop-loss, the answer is naturally clear.
1. First understand: Why did ETH suddenly plummet? The signs of the main force's washout are very obvious.

When Binance's valuation and BNB ecosystem scale expand to more than 10 times the total of all other offshore trading platforms, the landscape of the crypto industry, characterized by 'one strong and many robust', has been thoroughly solidified. In the face of this nearly 'dimensionality reduction strike' pressure, compliant onshore platforms can only watch from afar, while most offshore peers have fallen into a predicament of 'having no moves to make'. However, a closer examination of Binance's leap from excellence to greatness reveals that its success has never been accidental — those decisions that hit every key node have long determined today's industry position. For the survivors, the key to breaking the deadlock may not lie in direct confrontation, but in the segmented tracks that Binance either looks down upon or has yet to touch.

When BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) linked options' open interest surged to 38 billion USD, officially surpassing Deribit's 32 billion USD, the crypto derivatives market witnessed a historic turning point. This traditional financial giant's product, which only launched options trading in November 2024, ended the long-standing dominance of native exchanges in less than a year, marking the transition of the crypto derivatives market from 'native dominance' to a new era of 'traditional finance takeover.'
1. Change of the Throne: Structural Transformation Behind the 38 Billion Contract