EricHSU_eth

Erichsu's Dailyshare: There is a wallet project that is going to sell tokens, have you used this wallet before?

@rainbowdotme will start selling the token $RNBW at 1:00 AM Beijing time on December 12, 2025. To cut a long story short, here are my thoughts:

1. Sales Valuation

The FDV is set at $100m, and the price of $0.1 USD is quite standard, not high. The official claim is that it is a 33% discount based on the valuation from the last round of private placement.

I checked, and back in February 2022, Rainbow raised $18m in Series A funding (yes, it’s that old of a project 😮‍💨). Considering the excitement at that time and the usual dilution ratio, the rough valuation back then was about 150m to 200m.

2. Is it worth investing?

I think there are two aspects to consider: whether there is excitement and whether the product has long-term value?

1) Excitement

It’s obvious that the recent hype of TGE investments has faded. Also, regardless of whether it's an information cocoon, I haven’t seen any articles related to Rainbow on my Twitter timeline for some time, so the project itself has very low popularity; looking at Coinlist, it’s really hard to bear. I participated in CL for Token logoBlockchain $OBOL and $FLEEK, which both failed miserably, so I think the new listing effect on Coinlist is also poor.

2) The Product Itself

This question is easier to answer; ask yourself, which wallet do you usually use, OKX? OneKey? Rabby? MetaMask? 🤷

I went to DeFi Alpaca and checked the data for the Rainbow wallet and compared it with the Trust wallet data for reference (I didn’t compare with MetaMask or OKX, as they are not on the same scale...).

I admit the Rainbow wallet has a good reputation, but its actual monetization capability is very poor; the trading frequency and TVL are far below that of leading wallets, which may also explain why Rainbow is in such urgent need of token issuance.

3. Personal Thoughts

I personally do not plan to participate; the logic does not make sense, and I can't convince myself. I can accept airdrops, but asking me to take out money is a no-go 🙅

If I had to randomly guess the opening trend, it might spike to $0.15 at the start and then consolidate around $0.08 to $0.10. Just a wild guess, and I don’t have to take responsibility for it 🤓

If you're interested, you can register on CL:
https://offers.coinlist.co/o/rainbow

GM! There's a small image project that requires at least 3 million dollars. Are you in?

As usual, I checked my To Do List, and I don't have much going on today, except @doodles released his new series DooPies, priced at 1 Sol or 3 Sol (different types), with a total of 25,000. What can I say, I really can't say much about it...

I've always been a loyal fan of Doodles, but along the way, there have been more disappointments than anything else. 🤷

In this market environment, where does the confidence come from when you say you need money like this? If you have the ability, why not empower something like $DOOD and manage it a bit? 🤣

GM! What programs are there today?

I got up early as usual and checked my To Do list. The only project I'm quite fond of is @MidnightNtwrk's $NIGHT, which will have its TGE tonight. There might be a short-term bullish opportunity, and it's already listed on exchanges like OKX, Bybit, Kraken, etc.

To quickly summarize the economic model for family members who may not know:

A fixed supply of 24 billion and a gradual unlocking design over 450 days, balancing large-scale community distribution (38%) with long-term ecological reserves (60% foundation + reserves).

If I had to estimate the opening price, I feel it would be around $0.01-$0.03 (corresponding FDV $240M-$720M) 🤓

Erichsu's Dailyshare: HumidiFi Restart Public Sale | Retail Purchase Plan (Non-Script)

If I calculated the time correctly, on December 8th at 11 PM, $WET will restart public sale. For those who are manual (non-script), I have organized two optimal "speed competition" plans.

Core Logic: Physical Layer (Reduce Mouse Clicks) + On-Chain Layer (Transaction Acceleration)

1. First, to grab the purchase at night, you have to pass two hurdles: Front-End Crash vs RPC Crash. If the front-end crashes, as a beginner, I really have no idea; but if the RPC crashes, there is a Plan B.

Strongly recommend: Set up a paid/exclusive RPC as a backup plan. I personally use Ankr's paid node, and you can search for various paid nodes and purchase a backup.

PS: Here I want to mention that @OneKeyHQ wallet has always been my paid node, very considerate.

If you can get past these two hurdles, then it's time for us to compete in transaction speed. Here are two plans:

2. Plan A: Jupiter Wallet

The @JupiterExchange Wallet Chrome extension excels in having the shortest interaction path; just one click to send the transaction.

You need to enable Auto Approve and Skip Review in the settings so that it skips the Approve and Preview interface, making physical layer transactions the fastest.

3. Plan B: Backpack Wallet

The transaction settings of @Backpack Wallet are the most hardcore I have seen, with the most complete customization features of any wallet, bar none.

- RPC Customization: Open settings, go to Solana, and just paste the custom RPC URL.

- Transaction Acceleration Settings: First, initiate a Send/Swap transaction casually, and until the step before confirmation, a custom transaction setting option will appear. Click edit, check "Jito Bundle", adjust "Jito Tip", and select the maximum tip you can accept. Note that if the transaction fails, this tip will not be deducted, so don’t worry.

- The tip for Jito Bundle mode needs to be sufficiently high to be faster, which is very useful.

4. Final Strategy:

I strongly recommend family members to open two Chrome browsers, placing the two plans on either side, and synchronize grabbing at night. Backpack prevents the RPC node from going down and is responsible for transaction acceleration; Jupiter is responsible for quickly broadcasting transactions, and the rest, just leave it to fate.
🤣

#SOLANA #HumidiFi

SEEKER @solanamobile is back with benefits

Users who have been active on mobile in the past 30 days can secure a whitelist for the @doodles cube, snapshot on December 7th.

It feels like with the announcement of SEEKER's TGE news, various traditional web3 projects are coming out to offer benefits, so all SEEKER family members should stay active.

The Aztec public sale window is about to close, only 32 hours left!

The privacy protocol leader is reserved, one of the strongest narratives in this round

a16z, Paradigm, and Vitalik Buterin team up to bet, with financing exceeding 100 million USD, the token public sale funding pool has already surpassed 18,000 ETH

This is not an ordinary public sale; this time it is Uniswap's first "continuous liquidation auction" collaboration case

No early running, no false bidding, everyone can participate fairly

If you missed ZEC, will you also miss the current Aztec?

Protection link
👉
：https://sale.aztec.network/auction

GM, today we continue to eat melon, the story goes like this:

Someone No. 2 released a trailer first, and the special effects were so fake that the audience immediately spotted the mistakes.

No. 4 quickly reshot the main footage, but the date on the clapperboard wasn't covered—
clearly written as 12/4.

Mistakes aren't embarrassing, and reshooting is normal,

just don't tell everyone: "Actually, I had filmed it long ago, it was just that the post-production rendering was a bit slow."

GM, Solana Phone @solanamobile Seeker is about to have its TGE in January next year! The phone airdrop accounts for 15%, love it love it😍 $SKR

https://x.com/solanamobile/status/1996278519475953722

GM, the Nth 牛回🤣

Thinking of a term invented by the MetaFoxes fox family — '牛浅回', which very well expresses today's market.

Clout chasing level: Expert. Morality level: Zero.😮‍💨

In April 2021, the State Administration for Market Regulation fined Alibaba 18.228 billion yuan.

At this time, it has been 2 years since Wang Xing said, "2019 was the worst year in the past decade, but it will be the best year in the next decade."

In that penalty announcement, the regulatory authorities had a thorough understanding of Alibaba's various business data and operational model. The data was detailed and the logic was rigorous.

At that moment, I had one feeling: the internet dividend is really gone.

Everything you do outside of your main job should reinforce your main job in reverse.

If you want to trade, backtesting, monitoring the market, reading market sentiment, and reviewing trades are definitely core activities.

But the key is
when you're not trading, what are you doing?

Many people learn and do things during the day that have nothing to do with trading.
Studying a major that isn't useful, taking a job that is tiring and doesn’t build skills, just to earn a few extra hundred.
These may seem harmless, but they are consuming your most valuable resources: attention and cognitive capacity.

Sometimes, earning a little more money isn’t as valuable as switching to a job that allows you to think clearly and also learn about trading;
or at least allows you to review market conditions during your commute or lunch breaks.

Even if you don’t want to change your career path for now, you can optimize the corners of your life:
Playing poker with friends can train your sense of probability and risk better than scrolling through short videos;
Watching a bit of psychology can enhance your sensitivity to emotions more than reading entertainment gossip.

These small adjustments, over time, will lead you to suddenly realize:

You may not feel like you are putting in more effort, but you have indeed become stronger.

Because decisions compound,
and those who put their attention in the right places every day,
will ultimately become more like 'that winning person.'

The "4-year cycle" has become vague and even ineffective.

We must abandon the idea of "buying at a significant low at some moment, then escaping at another moment."

The market, like life, is perpetual and cannot be segmented by certain events.

The bottom is a range rather than a moment, and the same goes for the top. Buying should be done in batches, and selling as well. Instead of "escaping the top," it is better to actively give up on reaching the peak.

JPMorgan emphasized in its report the risk of MSTR being removed from the MSCI index, which could lead to a direct sell-off of 2.8 billion and an indirect sell-off of 8.8 billion, causing significant dissatisfaction in the Bitcoin community towards JPM.

The community even suspects that JPM holds a large short position in MSTR.

The community calls on retail investors to buy and hold MSTR and to close their JPMorgan bank accounts in protest.

This feels reminiscent of the 2021 Wall Street retail GME incident, although the differences are quite significant.

Erichsu's Dailyshare: $CHOG Launch Review——Profits exist, but there are still shortcomings

Last night before sleep, I finally managed to focus on the token launch of @ChogNFT. Although I made a small profit, upon review, there were two areas that were not handled well.

1. Insufficient execution

By using @ultrax_ai's Twitter monitoring tool, I spent two days online (excluding sleep) capturing the CA image released by the official Twitter account at the first moment.

Faced with the CA in image form, I manually input it, with an average purchase at 4m; whereas someone utilized Bloom for sniping, supporting Twitter OCR recognition (already supports Monad Chain), achieving millisecond-level sniping directly, with costs kept below mc 4k to realize a profit of 400 kU.

In on-chain PVP, obtaining information is just the first step; the efficient processing of information is the determining factor that widens the profit gap. I actually had Bloom but didn't use it, which is a typical case of 'tool idleness' leading to missed opportunities.

2. Insufficient understanding of the project

In hindsight, the position was clearly too small, essentially due to a lack of understanding of the project's status within the Monad ecosystem.

At the same time, my friend @brocoliwang, as an OG in the Monad community, dared to heavily invest at the bottom. Only later did I realize that the Chog NFT whitelist was being speculated outside at 2000u, which is a very strong community consensus anchor point.

Confidence comes from understanding. Without a deep 'feel' for the ecosystem, it's indeed impossible to have the courage to hold positions during violent fluctuations in the K-line. 😮‍💨

Personal musings

Re-reading @shep_eth's words, making money means 'playing early, buying more, and holding on.'

【Insight】SIG Founder Jeff Yass: The Prediction Market is Not a Casino, But a “Truth Engine”

As an early talent scout for ByteDance, SIG founder Jeff Yass's optimism about Polymarket and Kalshi is essentially an investment in a new “epistemology.”
In his view, the prediction market goes far beyond gambling; it is a truth discovery mechanism based on “skin in the game.”

1. Truth Crusher: Pricing for Consequences

Politicians tend to obscure costs, just like the underestimation of the Iraqi war expenses. The core value of the prediction market lies in its ability to force the truth out through pricing. If the market can trade on “war costs” or “policy consequences,” trillions in real expectations will directly pressure decision-makers to remain calm. Instead of listening to experts debate, it is better to look at the odds in real money.

2. Dimensionality Reduction Attack on the Insurance Industry

This is the most efficient risk hedging. Worried about hurricanes? No need to buy complicated homeowners insurance; simply buy a contract for “exceeding wind speed.” When disasters occur, it automatically profits to cover losses. It eliminates claims review and operational costs; this is financialized on-demand insurance.

3. The Only Touchstone of Cognition

“If you haven’t made money in the market, your opinion is worthless.”
The market does not believe titles; it only believes results. While top political scientists still misjudge the situation, traders have already provided the correct answers through betting. If you think the market is wrong, bet to correct it; if you don’t dare, admit that the market is smarter than you.

4. The Next “ByteDance”

Polymarket's high valuation is not a bubble. Just as ByteDance restructured “information distribution” with algorithms, the prediction market is reconstructing “trust” and “the future” using Bayesian probability. It is not a gambling platform; it is humanity's “truth search engine” in this uncertain world.

Original interview video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU9N75Fe1yU

Introducing the 'people' in the cryptocurrency space to newcomers, there are roughly these types of roles:

Builder 👷

◦ Asset issuers: including token / NFT / Stablecoin, and various new asset Launchpads
◦ Trading platform operators: including CEX, DEX, Perp DEX, NFT Marketplace, RWA platforms, prediction markets, etc.
◦ Tool product creators: such as wallets, data platforms
◦ Protocol developers: including public chains, DeFi protocols, and various infrastructure

HODLer 💎

◦ Long-term holders of core assets like BTC, ETH, including OGs and those who entered the space in the last two years

Trader 📈

The main group of 'retail investors' who buy high and sell low

◦ Contract players, the group contributing major revenue to trading platforms
◦ PvP players of on-chain meme coins
◦ Of course, there are also some whales 🐳 or speculative funds that act decisively

Farmer 🧑‍🌾

Compared to traders, this group is risk-averse

◦ Asset management and quant: institutions that help organizations and large investors with finance and arbitrage, with every round experiencing blowups
◦ DeFi farmers: well-versed in various DeFi liquidity, APY, mining, and circular loans, but just don't buy coins
◦ Airdrop hunters: whether it's manual labor in the past or this round's social media airdrops and Binance alpha, they pursue relatively low-cost airdrops and then ruthlessly convert it to increase their USDT holdings
◦ KOLs: whether it's a 40u matrix account or a top influencer, they all share a piece of the pie from exchanges / project parties (and upstream VCs) in a liquidity-rich market

Service Provider 🤵‍♂️

These individuals are service providers in the industry chain, roughly between builders and farmers

◦ Conducting security audits for contracts
◦ Headhunting for project hiring
◦ Law firms providing compliance/legal services for projects
◦ Crypto funds providing early-stage capital
◦ Market makers serving trading liquidity
◦ Organizers of industry conferences
◦ Cryptocurrency media

Scammer 🥷

They can be described as a unique type of player in the cryptocurrency space, and their tactics continue to evolve

◦ Government-sponsored hackers
◦ Creating fake wallet websites and advertising on Google / Baidu to trick users into entering their recovery phrases
◦ Social engineering scammers mingling in communities like Telegram / Discord / Twitter
◦ Scammers who poison on-chain addresses to confuse and mislead
◦ 'Project parties' disguised as Builders

MONAD Dog Preparation Moves:
1. Online begging $MON for gas 😂
2. https://portalbridge.com transfer from u to MON, my experience transferring SOL's USDC was very smooth
3. https://dexscreener.com/monad choose your hero
4. Currently, the most commonly used swap dex is https://dyorswap.finance, and there should be more official and authoritative dex coming out later

Compared to XPL, MONAD should have more community and meme genes, and I hope more fun things can come out.

The new investment in Coinbase by Monad is sure to oversubscribe (187.5 million). How will the oversubscription be allocated? A simple explanation
👇

The overall idea is to take care of small investors. Let AI explain the specific rules, which is quite interesting and better than equal distribution.

Imagine everyone is queuing up to eat (as shown), but each person's bowl (corresponding amount) is different. For example: a total of 4 people participate in the ICO, A contributes 100u, B contributes 300u, C contributes 500u, and D contributes 1000u. The total amount is 1200u.

First round distribution - starting from the smallest amount
The project party fills each of ABCD with 100u of food, totaling 400u. Then A happily leaves, receiving the expected 100% allocation.

Second round distribution - 800u still remains
Remaining are BCD, who need 200, 400, and 900u respectively.
At this point, the project party again fills the three with 200u of food each, totaling 600u. Thus, B also happily leaves, receiving the expected 100% allocation.

Third round distribution - 200u still remains
Remaining are CD, who need 200 and 700u respectively.
If we continue to distribute according to the above logic, we would need 200×2. But it's already insufficient. So the project party divides the remaining 200u evenly between C and D, each receiving 100u.

Therefore, C and D will both receive a total of 100+200+100 = 400u allocation.

In the end, the allocation results for $MON are as follows
👇
A receives 100u (expected 100%)
B receives 300u (expected 100%)
C receives 400u (expected 80%)
D receives 400u (expected 40%)

So under this rule, it is friendlier to small investors. The larger the amount, the lower the final allocation ratio (but the specific amount is still quite good).

1. The market is born out of despair, grows in doubt, matures in longing, and perishes in hope.

2. Invest when the market is extremely pessimistic, that is when it is most optimistic.

3. Buy when others are dejected and selling, sell when others are greedily buying.

4. Finding certainty in uncertainty is the art of the investor.

5. On the waves of trends, sail with the ship of belief. …