广子

I slept very late yesterday.

I took a nap after finishing the morning broadcast.

I am really lazy, but I also have to push myself to exercise a bit.

Wish everyone a good morning, good noon, and good evening.

ps: Can we meet again? I was too tired last time and didn't perform well!

$BTC

In a couple of days, the PPI and FOMC meetings will focus on 'stagflation.' The inflation pressure caused by soaring oil prices and the recession risks brought by weak employment data. The Federal Reserve is highly likely to 'stay put.'

1. PPI: Oil Price Shock
This PPI data is expected to rebound, mainly influenced by the surge in oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. The market generally predicts that March's PPI year-on-year may turn positive from negative, with a month-on-month increase potentially reaching over 0.5%. Rising oil prices directly push up energy and raw material costs, which will be transmitted through the supply chain to the final consumer goods prices, and subsequent CPI may face upward pressure.

2. FOMC: Powell's Tai Chi
This meeting is the second to last during Powell's term, and the market expects interest rates to remain unchanged, but the dot plot (interest rate forecast) and Powell's statements are crucial. The Federal Reserve is now hesitant to act because a move could lead to mistakes. The market expects the Federal Reserve to lower its interest rate cut expectations for this year. Previously, there might have been hopes for 2-3 rate cuts, but now it may only be 1, or even postponed until the end of the year. Powell stated: he will be very 'balanced.' Acknowledging the inflation risks brought by rising oil prices, he will also emphasize the weakness in the job market. It is likely to be: 'We need more data; now is not the time to act.'

3. Market Impact: Risk Aversion Rising
The dollar may strengthen in the short term because the expectation of high interest rates lasting longer (Higher for Longer) will attract funds into dollar assets.
The stock market faces pressure. A high interest rate environment is unfavorable for technology stocks and other high-valuation assets, while 'stagflation' expectations will dampen market risk appetite.
Gold/oil geopolitical uncertainty combined with inflation expectations may continue to support gold and oil prices.

Key Point: The rise of cryptocurrency $BTC during the PPI and FOMC periods is a switch in market logic. Funds are no longer simply selling off due to 'high interest rates,' but are buying because 'inflation is hard to reduce.' As long as the Federal Reserve does not release unexpectedly hawkish signals (such as hinting at interest rate hikes), the upward momentum of cryptocurrency may continue.

More Key Point: If the FOMC meeting ultimately releases an extreme hawkish signal of 'spare no effort to combat inflation,' or if the situation in the Middle East suddenly eases leading to a plummet in oil prices, this round of cryptocurrency gains may face correction pressure.

I will try to push a bit near 767.

$BTC

$CRCL babbling

Circle has experienced a drop from a high position to around 50 dollars, rebounding to over 100. Today, pre-market, it reached over 118. The bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market is evident, and it is highly likely that the U.S. market will see a broad rise in cryptocurrency stocks today.

However, my current judgment on Circle is short-term bearish and long-term bullish, just like the current $BTC . I am waiting for the next level of low consolidation to accumulate shares, anticipating a comprehensive rebound before the end of the year.

Due to compliance issues with cryptocurrency regulations, Circle can only rely on U.S. Treasury bond interest and stock market liquidation to make money, and the interest rates determine the upper limit and imagination. The largest competitor, USDT's parent company Tether, holds a portfolio of various assets including gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, Bitcoin, and cash.

@老郑睡不醒 The losses from live broadcasts are both protection and exemption; I am greedy, so I just do it.

(This does not constitute any investment advice; it is merely a personal exchange of thoughts between my left and right brain.)

Placed a long order for $PLTR , not sure if I can get on the bus.

Because I watched a Palantir to B presentation video on X, the combination of war with big data and artificial intelligence decision-making systems truly amazes me, especially as someone who sees rental house guru videos every day.

Palantir's business is also diversifying, with services for government defense, corporate companies, AI models, software underlying infrastructure, and more.

While the whole world is burning money on AI, the biggest concern is whether this thing can make money, how to make money, and how long it takes for a hundred billion level investment project to break even.

But Palantir has already transformed from "high growth without profit" to "high growth and profitable" leading tech companies. Simply put, it is very profitable now.

Considering the current Middle East issues, I want to enter but hesitate a bit at the market price, so I placed an order to see if fate will bring us together ❤️

$PLTR

(Self-reflection, love it or leave it, I have no investment advice)

Friends of ETH and BTC

It is recommended to pay more attention to the ETH vs BTC exchange rate, referring to the strength and the ratio of rises and falls.

There are often occurrences of compensating rises and falls, and arbitrage opportunities can often be discovered based on the performance of the exchange rate.

$BTC $ETH

#btc

BTC 4-hour level top reversal

Currently, the bulls are defending around 70400. If it breaks below the 70,000 integer level, we will continue to look downwards.

Breaking below 68932 may trigger a chain reaction leading to a significant drop.

The timing is awkward being stuck over the weekend, so we wait patiently.

$BTC

[Self-discipline is against human nature]

I don't love working out, so I need to go to the gym.

Traders need to find some extra things to hone their willpower.

Stop thinking about making money all day, reward yourself. If you lose money, comfort yourself.

You need to have a big heart and handle heavy weights with ease.

$BTC

After the live broadcast at $BTC broke down, there was still an opportunity to short between 71900-72300, and after placing the order, there was also a chance for a rebound.

Observe the 70,000 integer support level; if it breaks, expect a chain reaction of stop losses and liquidation for a waterfall effect.

Have a great weekend.

@老郑睡不醒 Let's get the game going, relax mode @Square-Creator-0038e491f7247

The empty 900 given in the morning $BTC 71, the empty 140 $ETH 2, the needle has been connected, but can it reach the other side this time?🤡