#美联储利率决议即将公布 #美联储扩表 Important news is coming, interest rate cuts are imminent, where will the market go! (II)(II)(II) I think the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut rates more than three times next year, and not just by 75 basis points!
Because Trump's recent remarks said: cutting rates is the touchstone for the position of the Federal Reserve Chairman! The Federal Reserve Chairman appointed during his term must be dovish and supportive of rate cuts! No matter how many rate cuts happen in the first half of next year, there will definitely be more rate cuts in the second half!
He wants to reduce the government's scale of U.S. Treasury bonds and has repeatedly criticized Powell for calling for rate cuts! Rate cuts can be said to be a major event that Trump has been thinking about!
Back to the crypto market, I do not believe there will be particularly large fluctuations when this rate cut takes effect, and there will certainly not be dreams of hitting new highs, although I also look forward to it! But I trust the situation more!
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction has ended, and in fact, I would prefer to see an expansion of the balance sheet, which would result in more funds flowing out. Without sufficient funds, it is impossible to rely solely on a few institutions like Strategy and BitMine to drive the market up!
Currently, too many people are bearish. I believe you should have more faith in yourself. If you think we are already in a bear market, or that it will become even more bearish in the future, then you should liquidate or short! But if you think Bitcoin and Ethereum can still rise, you should hold on and accumulate at lower prices, waiting for a new wave of market activity!
BTC and ETH will definitely reach new highs! And I feel that the time won't be too long, the four-year bull-bear cycle may have already been broken, and the impact of the halving is not significant anymore, as the proportion of unmined BTC is already low! The altcoin season may really be over, the strong will remain strong, and the weak will be eliminated, causing you to doubt life as prices fall!
#美联储降息周期 #加密市场观察 Breaking news is coming, interest rate cuts are imminent, where will the market go! (1)(1) Everyone is closely watching the interest rate cut news at three o'clock on Thursday morning, in fact, the interest rate cut has basically become a reality, because the negative impact of not cutting interest rates has caused price declines that have not been recovered!
Many people feel that the interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, what should be more concerning is Powell's speech at three thirty! For a relatively strong Federal Reserve Chairman, a stubborn old man with half a year left in his term, I feel he won't say any dovish remarks to everyone!
Many forecasting institutions or capital are beginning to pay attention to next year's Federal Reserve dot plot, predicting the probability of several interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve! Among them, important institutions predict that there will only be two interest rate cuts next year, of course, there are also predictions for three cuts! Sometimes I find these forecasting institutions a bit ridiculous; such large institutions, operating a huge amount of capital, yet they speak nonsense and make wild claims! Just look at the interest rate cut probability this December, how many large institutions have changed their tune?
I feel that, in essence, it is all for their own interests, having to go against market expectations to make some statements for everyone, finding excuses to harvest wealth! The world is bustling for profit, and the world is in turmoil for profit!
The storm is not over; the crypto market's turmoil has never been as expected!
Starting from October 11, prices fell as countless ancient whales sold off, institutions dumped their holdings, liquidity became scarce, and panic ensued, until Bitcoin formed a temporary bottom on November 21, and then began to rebound. Suddenly, the Bank of Japan announced a hawkish stance! They will continue to raise interest rates, and in about ten days, the gains were completed in half a day with a second dip!
In December 2013, China’s five ministries In September 2017, China’s seven ministries In May 2021, China’s ten ministries In November 2025, China’s thirteen ministries Precision every four years, with each round of ministries increasing, every time thereafter Bitcoin will be higher!
It was just reported that 40,000 ETH from the 2015 ICO has been staked, and the “October 11 insider whale” just bought 14,066 ETH. In the past 2 hours, a newly created address withdrew 77,385 ETH ($220 million) from Binance to the blockchain. Address: 0x36ED68c47a007b6D896515070375b3f5AC9BC889 BitMine announced an increase of 96,798 ETH last week, bringing the total holdings to 3,726,499 ETH.
NASDAQ-listed company Massimo announced that its board has approved the inclusion of Bitcoin (BTC) into the company’s long-term treasury strategy and has begun initial purchases. The company stated it will invest no more than 10% of its total assets in BTC over the next five years.
Just now, BlackRock transferred 2,156 Bitcoins to Coinbase. It seems that the ETF is flowing out again, and the US stock market hasn't opened yet; it’s likely that this is not the bottom yet! But maybe tomorrow will be better for crypto assets!
The market has shown divergence; some are cutting losses and exiting, while others are increasing their positions!
Recent news is flying everywhere, with intense collisions of good and bad news! First, the Federal Reserve announced that the tapering is coming on December 1st, and then there is the sudden news from China: the central bank leading thirteen departments reaffirms that "virtual currency is an illegal financial activity." There's also the prediction about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the meeting on December 11th!!
Tomorrow is the date when the Federal Reserve starts tapering! Yet, it coincides with the announcement from China on November 28: the central bank leading thirteen departments reaffirms that "virtual currency is an illegal financial activity!"
What kind of sparks can be generated from the collision of water and fire?
Firstly, tapering will definitely release liquidity in the market, specifically the liquidity of the US dollar. Theoretically, there will be more capital in the market, which is good for both the stock market and the crypto space!
Moreover, the sudden news indicates that mainland China has made many decisions regarding virtual currencies several times! The crackdown has not been few; this time, the issue of speculation has also been brought to the agenda! This is definitely bad news, but at present, it feels more like a warning: the bull market is about to end, and those making money should quickly cash out! For the first time, stablecoins are specifically highlighted for discussion. This means that: Stablecoins are easily used for money laundering, fraud, gaming, and cross-border money transfers, and such behaviors will be investigated more strictly in the future. Additionally, it is stated that "virtual currency is not currency and is not allowed to circulate domestically." This means: Don't think that there will be a lifting of the ban domestically; it's impossible in the short term.
Although the language this time is quite firm, regarding the current situation of virtual assets, it seems that the impact is not too great, and it hasn’t caused a crash yet, because many NASDAQ-listed companies have purchased Bitcoin and used it as reserves. Currently, Bitcoin is not solely in individual hands. Additionally, there are plenty of holdings in spot ETFs! Furthermore, the Hong Kong ETF market still holds BTC and ETH reserves!
Currently, one must pay attention to some data and news next week, and the situation of the US stock market opening tomorrow, be mindful of risks!
I believe there is a bit of downside risk in the market in the short term, so I will focus on the probability of interest rate cuts predicted by the Federal Reserve and the relevant data to be released next week!
The sky has fallen! The bear market has quietly arrived, bringing unprecedented disaster to everyone!
Just now, according to predictions on Polymarket, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in December has risen to 66%, with a total market trading volume of $119 million.
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 36.2%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 63.8%.
Looking at it this way, if we consider the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, could it be that we are facing a continuous decline again?!!!!
Can we hold on until the unemployment rate at 9:30 tonight???
Has the weather changed? Is the long bear market coming again?
From the current perspective, whether it's the data or the patterns, it really feels like we've entered a bear market! Friends are starting to ask me if it's time to cut losses and exit!
Bitcoin has successfully dropped to the eight thousand mark, and there are pessimists starting to predict a gap around 75000. The market's fear index has also dropped to single digits!
There are countless bearish statements in the square, but I am not that pessimistic yet. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut requires a vote, and there are currently significant disagreements. However, as long as seven people support a 25 basis point cut, it can pass. Currently, there are only three votes clearly opposing the rate cut!
This leads us to some data starting early Thursday morning!
Thursday 03:00 The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.
At the same time, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech.
■05:00 Nvidia will announce its earnings report after the market closes.
21:30 U.S. September unemployment rate
21:30 Data review U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm employment
Let's wait and see. After these eye-catching data are released, we can make decisions!
For now, we can only hold on tightly, manage our positions well, and don't wait until the rebound comes and there are no positions left!!!
Recently, BlackRock has been selling off in installments, and MicroStrategy is also selling; it would be better to just go back to fifteen years ago……
I really can't believe it, the market cap of the crypto circle is back to what it was four years ago! In the last bull market, the entire crypto market cap was three trillion, and the previous bull market was eight hundred billion!!
Now, looking at the market cap back to three trillion, is this normal?
This bull market has major companies strategically stocking up, and many ETFs have been listed globally, but the scale has actually become smaller! It truly is a huge miracle!
I agree with a popular opinion; if we really go directly into a bear market now, then to put it bluntly, apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum, BNB, the rest are all completely done for, being harvested, and they can just exit the market, no one will play anymore, what's the use!!
A bull market creates bubbles, and then eliminates bubbles; now that we're in a bear market, there's no need to eliminate bubbles, the market cap has already returned to what it was four years ago. If we eliminate bubbles now, it’s game over! I would believe it directly!
With the beautiful country's government ending the shutdown, based on past performance, there will be a very beautiful rise in one to three months, so I think if we can hold on and get through it, there may be gains; dying before dawn means nothing!!
The cow is dead, this time I really feel that the cow is dead!!
I once fantasized that the bull market was still there, and it is said that the four-year cycle has been disrupted; what is meant to come will come!
However, this time is really different from before!
As of November 14, 2025, BTC has been significantly affected by price corrections, and the main chip price level has moved down from the previous concentrated area. The specific situation is as follows:
1. Recent core concentrated area: Data from November 2 shows that the range of $105,000 - $112,000 is the most concentrated area for main funds recently, with a total of 3.174 million BTC bought here, accounting for 15.8% of the total circulation. Among them, $110,000 (589,000 BTC) and $112,000 (629,000 BTC) are the two major chip volume pillars within this range. However, as of November 14, the closing price of BTC has fallen to around $99,000, and chips in this range may experience some loosening. 2. Current short-term chip concentration area: On November 14, BTC's intraday low touched $98,000, and the market has expectations for buying near this price level. The main short-term chips are likely to gather towards the $98,000 - $104,000 range, with some opinions suggesting that this range may become a chip support area for short-term bulls. 3. Previous resistance turning into support chip area: Previously, around $117,000 was a key chip concentration area, with a cost base of up to 190,000 BTC, which later turned into a resistance level. With BTC's significant decline on November 14, this price level has become a concentration area for trapped chips above, temporarily departing from the current core price range of main chips.
Let's take a look at the BTC spot ETF, as funds continue to flow out. As of last night's close, IBIT's closing price was 55.590, but the average holding cost was as high as 64.32, resulting in a profit ratio of actually 0.00%. How ridiculous! What is this situation, what kind of divine operation is this? Is it true that the big pie, as a risky asset, is really not recognized and directly becomes a tool for harvesting??
The decline continues. If the ETF continues to flow out, tonight is likely to be another scene of wailing!!
I still choose to hold on, but faith has begun to dissipate; the road ahead is long and difficult… $BTC
#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 I have seen many predictions from "time travelers," whether they are outrageous or not can be ignored, but seeing this prediction makes me laugh a bit!!
Did this guy say something wrong? Regarding this statement, I believe more in what the "time travelers" say, that there is not much time left for anything below 100,000, and it will be difficult to pick up large amounts below 100,000 in the future!
I think these "time travelers" are based on the fact that the ancient giant whales have sold too many large amounts, they have sold too many low-priced chips, which means that low-priced chips are decreasing, while chips above 100,000 are increasing, which indicates that the consensus price of large amounts is getting higher and higher, and signifies that as the large amount successfully builds a bottom, there will be a wave of price increases!
Peter Schiff: Sell as soon as the Bitcoin price is still above 100,000】Golden Finance reports that economist and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff called on Bitcoin holders to sell early on the X platform. "Reaching a Bitcoin price of 100,000 is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that should not be missed. In fact, such an opportunity may never come again in our lifetime. Therefore, seize this opportunity while you can and hold on tight. If you hold Bitcoin, hurry up and sell it while the price is still above 100,000."
Hello, Peter Schiff! Do you have a feeling or are you a master of metaphysics? I don't know if it's a feeling or a prediction that there is not much time left for yourself! 😂😂😂
金色财经
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【Peter Schiff: Sell Bitcoin as soon as the price is still above $100,000】According to Golden Finance, economist and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff called on Bitcoin holders on the X platform to sell as soon as possible. "Reaching a price of $100,000 for Bitcoin is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that should not be missed. In fact, such opportunities may never come again in our lifetime. Therefore, while you can still seize this opportunity, you must hold on tightly. If you hold Bitcoin, hurry up and sell it while the price is still above $100,000."
#加密市场回调 #黑天鹅 Defeat the evil capitalists, defeat the heartless dog dens! Beware of the resurgence of capitalism!!
I estimate that this shout is not enough to bring even a trace of peace to everyone's heart!
On October 11th, the crypto community will remember this day, the world will remember this day, an unprecedented so-called black swan, the liquidation amount has created a new historical record!!
In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market's total contract liquidation reached 19.267 billion USD, with a wide range of impact affecting over 1.65 million people.
Among them, the liquidation amount of long positions accounted for the vast majority of the total liquidation amount, reaching 16.794 billion USD, while the liquidation amount of short positions was 2.473 billion USD.
How many friends' hard-earned funds or even their own principal were instantly turned to ashes, completely harvested by capital!
Among the numerous cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) had the largest liquidation amounts, reaching 5.351 billion USD and 4.409 billion USD respectively. Among them, the largest single liquidation occurred in the Hyperliquid ETH-USDT trading pair, valued at 203 million USD.
In addition, WBTC, WBETH, and WBSOL plummeted in the early morning, experiencing decoupling, with WBTC once falling to 35,000 USD, WBETH dropping to 430.65 USD, and ATOM falling to 0.001 USD. In this situation, those who bought the dip also made a fortune! But how many can really buy the dip at low prices???
Ideals are abundant, reality is cruel, and harvesting is inhumane! Normal market conditions have been cut down, and we have no regrets, but this heartless and shameless harvesting, we are powerless against, we can only be furious. Are we simply greedy? Certainly not, small position contracts were also turned to ashes in this harvesting, nearly 20 billion, which is the hope of many friends and carries the expectations of many families!
In the past, I have reminded everyone many times to pay attention to risks and control positions. Is this situation one that we could avoid simply by controlling our positions well?
Vent a little frustration, express some thoughts, comfort my wounded spirit, commemorate this day of liquidation, and remind myself that surviving in future trades is the true way to go!
Money can never be earned completely, but it can be lost all at once!!!
BNB has reached new highs again and again, but what is it like to have no chips in hand???
I used to think BNB was seriously undervalued and believed it would definitely take off, but after a back-and-forth struggle, I finally got left behind!
Now BNB keeps reaching new highs, but I have no chips left, it's really frustrating!
Personally, I feel that this wave of BNB could go to around 1500 or even higher, but the current position is so awkward, at 1300 I feel that the risk has already outweighed the reward, thinking of BNB's past performance, I dare not believe in it anymore!
Sometimes there is a sense of powerlessness, it's just that you watch it rise with your own eyes, but you don’t have any profit at all!!!
$BNB
梧桐Pro
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Bullish
#BNB牛起 #BNB觉醒 One of the severely undervalued tokens of BNB!! When will BNB catch up??? In this wave of the bull market, it’s basically just Bitcoin performing on its own. With Trump being elected, Bitcoin is dancing wildly; some of his comments with Musk have driven XRP, ALGO, ADA, and other older coins, breaking the long-standing saying in the crypto circle that 'new coins are traded, not old ones'.
With Trump personally entering the scene to issue tokens, it has brought a particularly bad precedent to the crypto world; what is this nonsense?? Will every celebrity be able to issue tokens in the future?
This circle itself is filled with too much risk, most users are unable to make money, the amount of funds is limited, there are vampires, and most others will drop. Everyone is looking forward to the altcoin season; are many people unable to resist asking if there will still be an altcoin season?
First talking about the second coin, the performance is really poor, Vitalik has turned into a dog! He only knows how to chase girls and is not focused on the development of the public chain, reaping what he sows, causing a lot of fans to beat their chests and stamp their feet. It is said that there will be an upgrade in March, if it performs poorly, it will really be useless!
Binance is the largest trading platform, and the platform's revenue is beyond doubt. Moreover, BNB is the gas fee consumption token of the Binance chain. Apart from regional reasons, I think BNB is stronger in application and has a higher value than XRP and SOL! Currently, SOL has reached a maximum of 275, the performance in this bull market has been amazing! XRP also reached a high of 3.4, but BNB has been stuck below 800 since CZ's lawsuit ended, despite various positive factors. Personally, I think BNB should exceed the 1000 mark to be considered a normal price!
On the 20th, Trump will take over the White House to complete the power transfer, but over the weekend, most coins have dropped significantly! From various ETF data, Friday still showed inflows!
Now I also dare not have faith; recently, the positions I increased have not taken profits, and they will drop back, so I choose to take profits at appropriate points and reduce holdings to escape.
With various news factors, I feel there is a high probability that it will still rise. Tomorrow, January 20, and on the 24th there will be a small interest rate meeting, let’s wait and see! $BNB {spot}(BNBUSDT) $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)
According to Tokenomist, in the next 7 days, there will be a single large unlock (amount exceeding 5 million USD) for ATH APT LINEA BABY BB HOME IO MOVE, etc.; in the next 7 days, there will be a linear large unlock (daily unlock amount exceeding 1 million USD) for SOL TRUMP WLD DOGE IP AVAX ASTER TIA SUI ETHFI DOT TAO NEAR, etc., with a total unlock value exceeding 555 million USD!
Among them, the unlock volume of ATH, LINEA, BABY, BB, HOME, and IO accounts for more than 6% of the total amount, with the highest exceeding 12%. Please pay attention to the risks!
#美联储重启降息步伐 #美联储官员密集发声 Since the Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts last week, there haven't been the large fluctuations that everyone expected. Instead, the new week started off on a high note, with Ethereum briefly approaching the four thousand mark!
This week, Federal Reserve officials have been voicing their opinions, with not only dovish remarks but also hawkish statements! Let's summarize the timeline of the Federal Reserve officials' statements this week, giving ourselves a reminder and also providing a reference for everyone!
September 22, 2025, Monday 09:00 RBA Governor Bullock testifies before the House Economics Committee. 21:00 Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks. 21:45 FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams comments on monetary policy and economic outlook. 22:00 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Bullard discusses the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy. September 23, Tuesday 00:00 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks about the U.S. economy. 2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin discusses the economic situation. Fed Governor Brainard speaks before the New York Economic Club lunch on "non-monetary factors and appropriate monetary policy." 21:00 Fed Governor Bowman comments on economic prospects. 22:00 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook. September 24, Wednesday 00:35 Fed Chair Powell discusses the economic outlook. September 25, Thursday 04:10 2027 FOMC voter, San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks. 20:20 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Evans comments. 21:00 FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams delivers a welcome address at the fourth annual meeting on the international role of the dollar. 2025 FOMC voter, Kansas Fed President George speaks. 22:00 Fed Governor Bowman discusses regulatory issues. September 26, Friday 01:00 Fed Governor Barr speaks on bank stress tests. 03:30 2027 FOMC voter, San Francisco Fed President Daly comments. 21:00 2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks. 22:00 Fed Governor Bowman speaks.
So awesome! So terrifying, I dare not touch it, isn't it just making me anxious!!
How many air forces have been smashed!
If everything is blown up, there’s no hope left, it’s a pity for those partners holding short positions who are still paying huge fees every hour, and now they can’t bear to cut losses, the current funding rate is too terrifying!
I just calculated, 10000*1.6751%=167.51*24=4020.24 If a position of ten thousand oil incurs a daily loss of 20-40% in fees, how terrifying is that number!
This circle is so cruel, holding long positions below ten oil, the hourly fee income is enough to fill you up!
So bloody and so cruel!
Still reminding everyone to pay attention to risks, money can’t be earned endlessly, but if you lose big, it’s hard to break even or even make a profit, but as long as you can survive, there will always be hope!!
Beware of risks, control positions, and set reasonable take profits and stop losses!!!
#杰克逊霍尔会议 #五小时倒计时 There are five hours left until Powell's speech, and it is highly likely to be another storm of blood and gore!! $BTC $ETH
According to BiyaPay analysts: Powell's last speech on Friday could see Bitcoin rise by 20% to 50% if interest rates are cut. On August 21, according to BiyaPay analysts, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give his final speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting this Friday evening Beijing time. Despite the latest inflation data exceeding expectations, some traders have lowered their interest rate cut forecasts, but the market still expects the Fed to cut rates in September. BMO Capital Markets analyst Ian Lyngen stated that Powell may bring risks to market rate cut expectations, especially with bets on a 50 basis point cut. Based on historical data, there is no fixed pattern for Bitcoin's performance in the month following Powell's last seven speeches at Jackson Hole, but rate cut cycles often lead to increases. Bitcoin rose by 15%, 20%, and over 50% in 2016, 2019, and 2020, respectively. Especially in the current rate cut cycle, Bitcoin may continue to benefit, attracting more capital inflows. And I believe, based on Powell's past attitudes and the data he presents in his speeches, that Powell will not make dovish remarks tonight! Although Trump has exerted his utmost effort to directly urge Powell to cut rates, he has also started to pressure the Fed board members indirectly, yet the effect seems mediocre. The expectation for a rate cut in September has decreased; although we still anticipate a cut of 25 basis points, Powell will still say that decisions will be made based on the published data!! In fact, regardless of whether dovish remarks are directly released, the market manipulators will take the opportunity to shake out positions, causing some highly leveraged positions to become fuel for the market, so everyone must pay attention to risks and manage their positions well!!!
After the data is released tonight, the interest rate decision at 2 a.m. on July 31 is imminent. According to the predictions from 'Fed Watch', it is highly likely that the interest rates will remain unchanged. Next, we will see what Powell has to say! I believe whether the speech is dovish will affect whether there will be two rate cuts in the three monetary policy meetings this year, as well as the magnitude of the cuts. I've heard many teachers say that when the market rises, there is no need for a reason, but when it falls, a reason must be found!
I feel that when the retail investors have grown, they will definitely be harvested. The market has been in high fluctuation for a while, and it is likely time to choose a direction for harvesting. However, for now, it seems there won't be a reversal to pick up retail investors!
I estimate many retail investors have been playing with altcoins in vain. The altcoin season that everyone has been thinking about seems to be getting further away from us. I still have two altcoins, and holding onto them has really made me miss the entire bull market. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both rising, but they can't move and return to their previous levels. This hasn't even started a proper adjustment, and it has directly dropped back to the low. It's truly speechless!
So, choosing the right targets is very important! Look for opportunities to cut losses or adjust positions!
Finally, remind myself to never chase the market; wait for opportunities to enter! Endure the loneliness, there are plenty of opportunities, and surviving with some profit is the way to go!!
Xinhua News Agency, Los Angeles, July 5 (Reporter Huang Heng)
On July 5 local time, American billionaire Elon Musk posted a message on social media: "Today, the establishment of the 'American Party' has also given you freedom." A day earlier, Musk conducted a poll on social media regarding the establishment of a new party. Among the 1.249 million online votes received, 65.4% of netizens supported the establishment of a new party.
What is this rhythm?? Is something big about to happen??? $BTC $ETH