大漂亮K线日记

BTC just directly spiked to 81,000, down 19% from the November high of 99,800, evaporating 120 billion USD, and the panic index has dropped from 68 to 11 in 48 hours.
Now the entire network is asking one question: Has the bull market ended? Should we run?
I will explain everything clearly from the on-chain, macro, and emotional perspectives. After reading, I believe you will come to your own conclusion.
1. Who is crashing the market?

Let me first answer the core question: Who is crashing the market? It’s not institutions, not whales, and not miners. The real crashers are the 'semi-believers' who entered the market between February and August 2025. This group holds coins for 3-12 months, with costs concentrated between 65,000 and 92,000. They neither have the faith of the old players from 2021 nor the agility of short-term traders. Once the price falls below their cost, their psychology collapses directly.

On the morning of November 19, the market simultaneously showed three major bottom signals:
Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of $280 million in a single month, BlackRock IBIT recorded a maximum single-day outflow of $463M
Fear & Greed Index dropped to 15 (historical level of panic)
Mt. Gox transferred $953M in Bitcoin, triggering sell-off expectations
But just as retail investors were in a panic selling frenzy, New Hampshire quietly approved the first $100M Bitcoin-backed municipal bond in the U.S. — this bond is not just a financing tool; it opens up a compliance channel to the global $140 trillion debt market, officially upgrading Bitcoin from a 'speculative asset' to 'government collateral.'

1. The alarm for falling below $90000
On November 18, 2025, BTC fell below $BTC 90000 — a new low in the last 6 months. Bloomberg data shows that in just a few hours, the market capitalization evaporated by more than $34 billion, equivalent to the total value of the Vietnamese stock market.
10X Research report states that the market has entered a 'confirmed bear regime', due to reasons including weak ETF capital flow, long-term holders selling off, and shrinking retail participation.
A 29% drop from the $126,000 peak, is this a correction in a bull market or the beginning of a bear market? In the next 3 months, will Bitcoin drop to $50K or rise to $150K?
Next, we will use scenario analysis to break down 4 possible paths, including triggering conditions, probabilities, price targets, and layout strategies.