Atlantis-初心

Using contract clearing method to predict the downward point:

1 As shown in Chart 1: After a significant drop in $BTC, the lower edge of the trading range is 106500. To completely clear the long positions in the trading range, a 20% drop is required, meaning the clearing point is 85000. Today's low of 95600 has already dropped by 10%, and the clearing distance has covered half. There may be a small rebound over the weekend, but since the direction is downward, the mid-term trend will definitely reach around 85000!

2 Chart 2 shows the weekly trend line of $BTC. When the price drops to 85000, the measurement indicates it will take approximately 30-35 days at the latest, and this level is also roughly the support level of the weekly ma100 (the measurement time is the latest time; the shorter the time, the lower the pin point).

Therefore, according to this method, before reaching 85000, the mid-term trend is suitable for a rebound short. If you want to build a position on the left side, it's best to wait until it breaks 90000!

#加密市场回调

The square has begun the vow to collect coins, but I must say: aside from $BTC and a small amount of Ethereum, there’s nothing worth holding onto! If it’s time to exit the circle, then exit; today’s circle has become a mess and is no longer supportive!

Just play around with some money you would use for mahjong; since the main forces think there are too many leeks, then the leeks should follow the trend and not give them a chance to even cut a hair!

After a rebound, silver has fallen again, and the international financial market is collectively cooling down!

During the day, it was said that $BTC would be 67,000, but by night it hit 66,720, resulting in the liquidation of long positions over 5 times in the 80,000 fluctuation range!

As for whether positions below 5 times will be liquidated, we need to observe the K-line for a while; honestly, with this kind of drop, no one feels calm! But when the price reached that point, I still bought a little symbolically!

#BTC

$BTC continues to hit new lows, the major retracement of gold and silver signifies the end of a wealth redistribution cycle, much like retail investors selecting stocks, the new market leaders also need to reselect targets and reposition themselves. Before repositioning, a significant amount of capital must be withdrawn, small players follow large players in the layout, and this all takes time!

First, let’s discuss the market outlook: from the trading range perspective, 83000-86000 is the lower boundary of the previous range, and it needs to liquidate long positions above 5X, with prices around 67000. However, 70000-74000 is an important support range, and it's not far from the liquidation point of 67000. Therefore, gradually buying $BTC from the current price to 67000 in batches to bet on the rebound is feasible, but regarding the larger market, it’s currently not visible!

Additionally, let's chat about the industry outlook:

From the situation in the crypto space over the past two years, $BTC stands out, becoming an unparalleled high target in the crypto world.

If 99% of the targets in an industry are heading downhill, then the dividend period for that industry must be over! As for the few coins that have multiplied dozens or hundreds of times, we can ignore them!

So does the crypto space still hold any significance?

I've thought about this question for a long time! For most retail investors (with weak trading experience), continuing to stay in this circle is actually of little significance. The cycle in 2022 was the last opportunity for retail investors; there are not many chances left to bet on fluctuations without major cryptocurrencies. Even Ethereum raises a question mark! But if you manage to bet on a fluctuation, a remarkable outcome could yield 60%-80% in the market. If the capital is not large, it’s just pocket money, and investing too much energy in it is of little significance. It’s better to invest in AI and grasp the current and future wealth opportunities!

As for the crypto space, engage in it as a hobby during your leisure time, occasionally check it out and participate, but there's no need to hold excessive expectations!

Every era has its protagonists, and blockchain still has great development potential, but the wealth opportunities for the average person are dwindling. In this era, AI is the shortcut to overtaking on the curve!

While I will continue to pay attention to the crypto space, I am willing to invest in AI!

Today's front-page headline is still gold and silver, but unlike before, it's a headline that's all over the place!

Gold reached a new high of 4891 from January 1-20, with a daily drop of over 10%, while silver fared worse, dropping over 40% since reaching a high of 99.4 on January 23, nearly halving its value; this is comparable to the black swan event in the crypto world on October 10-11!

On January 6, I mentioned that the flow of funds from the main players determines the market trends of financial assets. Other financial assets will have to wait for a significant correction in gold and silver before they can see some movement. Now that the major correction has come, do you dare to enter the market?

My personal view: The big shock comes first, followed by continuous aftershocks. The entire financial market is bound to follow gold and silver for a cleansing, during which the main forces will gradually build their positions!

So what will you do?

$BTC after retracing to 90,000, quickly rebounded and touched 96,500. Therefore, the previous judgment of a bullish consolidation was correct. Moreover, if you added positions before Christmas, the unrealized losses from the previous sharp drop have largely been recovered. However, since 96,000 has not been firmly held, the short-term outlook remains consolidation. Thus, avoid chasing gains—wait for a pullback to add more positions!

Additionally, from a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily and weekly charts still maintain their current bullish consolidation trend. However, yesterday saw increased volume, so a pullback today is likely. Watch the 96,000–97,000 range on the daily chart (MA100 zone) for a consolidation pattern. If this level holds for 2–3 consecutive attempts without breaking down, consider reducing part of your position to prepare for the next extreme market move. If it holds steady, there could be a potential to reach 100,000!

Also, due to the recent lackluster market with no major developments, there's not much to say, so updates have been sporadic. Hoping for a strong market rally before year-end to liven things up and boost both wallets and morale!

#BTC走势分析

The last sentence is missing a 'not' character, hahaha

$BTC has reached $94,000 again. The market movement always comes quietly. Before Christmas, I mentioned that it's a good time to gradually accumulate positions at lower levels during the holiday period. I reiterated the same point on Christmas Day. At this level, a sudden big move is unlikely, but a slow, steady upward trend remains highly probable. My reasoning is twofold:

1. Since the drop in mid-September, nearly four months have passed. Based on the past two years, a market rally typically occurs every six months. Timing-wise, continuing to accumulate at lower levels is still sound. Moreover, the current price-to-value ratio of key cryptocurrencies is quite favorable. However, this doesn't mean going all-in; half a position is perfectly acceptable—maintain flexibility to enter and exit as needed.

2. Looking at 2025 closing prices, gold and silver have outperformed the crypto market significantly, which is a reversal from past trends. However, from a capital flow perspective, gold and silver are currently at high levels with strong international market sentiment. Therefore, some institutional funds are likely already starting to exit. When gold and silver experience a major correction, these funds will have already pulled out, and some of that capital is expected to flow into the crypto market.

This current market move hasn't been driven by new developments or positive news in the crypto space. Thus, we can infer that institutional funds have been quietly accumulating positions recently. As retail investors, there's no reason to follow the institutional entry price points!

#BTC

$BTC has unknowingly reached 92,000, and there are more secondary opportunities. I bought some $FET when it first hit 0.2 around 12-18, which can be considered as buying at the short-term bottom. Today it is 0.28, a 40% increase!

#FET

$JOJO Nearly 40 times in one day, this surged a little after going live and then dropped so much that even my mom wouldn't recognize it. After that, I just left it alone, and today it unexpectedly gave a return, nearly multiplying my cost price by 10 times!

#JoJoWorld

Christmas and New Year's Day, both Eastern and Western New Year are approaching. Three years ago, $BTC always dropped during holidays, but in the last three years, it has been rising; In the past few days, those without positions can build some positions, and those with small positions can add a little on dips!

#BTC

$BTC $ETH are still fluctuating, and some mainstream altcoins have rebounded strongly; for example, $UNI was at 5.1 when the post was made yesterday, now it is at 5.8, a 15% increase. $uni was invested from 6 to 4.9, with an average price of 5.3, overall profit has also reached ten points. If the vote passes, and the buyback truly begins, there will be another wave!

#UNI

$UNI has been invested for a month, will the repurchase go through or is it worth a gamble!

#UNI

Last night it was mentioned that a small amount could be bought at the bottom. In the middle of the night, it tested 84450 again, and then followed the rebound of the US stock market. The short-term market looks at whether the US stocks will continue to rebound tonight or test lower (I personally feel that it is more likely to correct first and then rebound). As for $BTC, if it does not break 84000 by tomorrow morning, it can be seen as a daily three tests, so in the short term there should at least be a rebound to 94000;

In the past few months of declining market, it has been quite difficult to make money in spot trading. The only standout performance has been in the AI sector that I recommended back in late August, especially aimeme, which I have mentioned repeatedly in November and December. The logic is the favorable news from NVIDIA;

Although I am optimistic about this sector before the end of the year, I haven't made a big profit myself. The two with the most significant increase, $PIPPIN (50 times), I didn't build a position; $ARC (8 times) was stopped out at 1011; only $FARTCOIN and $SWARMS have doubled, and I have exited a large portion of both, leaving the rest to take profits in this market structure;

The secondary AI sector has performed a bit weakly before, with the leaders $FET and $WLD continuously making new lows, but I still added a bit of position today. I dare not go long, mainly because the secondary market has been too difficult this year. I am just betting that the overall market can stabilize temporarily after the aimeme outbreak to see if it can attract funds to the secondary AI sector!

#Aİ

The US stock market is still experiencing fluctuations and corrections. Whether the daily line will form a double top is crucial, and the medium-term trend will need to be observed around Christmas and New Year's! The overall direction of $BTC still follows the US stock market! For now, a small amount of dollar-cost averaging can be added!

Just now, a friend reported that there is a balance of $phy in the alpha account, but when selling, it shows a balance of 0, and the selling page prompts that the circulating quantity of $phy has exceeded the unlocked tokens. I checked, and it is indeed the case, but I haven't seen any news about a hacker attack. How could this happen? @Yi He @CZ @Binance Square Official

#PHY

The US stock market is still in a volatile pullback before the opening, and the $BTC market is equally boring. During the day, both the secondary market and Binance Alpha are overall in a pullback state. Fortunately, I have already reduced my positions in the past two days. The benefit of reducing positions is that, first, it locks in profits, and second, it allows for more flexibility in adding positions when the pullback reaches the expected level!

Similarly, for every major market movement or minor market movement, where does it generally reach? What are the signals? What are the results? These are also hard criteria to test one's trading skills. For those who want to engage in trading long-term, summarizing and correcting their trading systems through constant trial and error is a long, torturous, painful but essential process! Very few people can persist and survive!

The cryptocurrency market has developed since 2009, and the best opportunities (before 2022) have passed. The total number of participants worldwide has reached 600 million, and the chances for ordinary traders to profit are becoming smaller! Yet, there are still newcomers who are eager to join, and some even think about cultivating 'chives' from children!

As someone who is still relatively young, I feel it's necessary to say a few words:

If you have not yet become wealthy in the cryptocurrency market and your trading skills are not professional, nor do you have a large number of cryptocurrency fans, then do not hope that the current cryptocurrency market can change your wealth status. Stay informed and use your fragmented time to learn trading! The current environment of the cryptocurrency market has already passed the era of wild and sudden wealth; rather than fantasizing about becoming one of the elite among 600 million people, it is better to focus your attention on other future booming industries, such as AI.

Whether military, technology, business, or people's livelihood, AI will undoubtedly be the benchmark for the next 30 years, and there is no doubt about it!

The future strength of AI mainly depends on the utilization rate of solar energy in space. Looking around the Earth, only Tokyo University and the United States have the authority in this regard. Therefore, Tokyo University will surely be a strong country in AI in the future. Mastering AI will not leave you without a place to apply it! From product design, basic programming, model training, to one-click app and video image generation, and even mastering AI trading, you can outperform 90% of traders;

In the future, one person can manage multiple industries, and one person can run a company of a thousand people, which will become a reality, accompanied by immense wealth, and opportunities surpassing the cryptocurrency market by an unknown margin!

The secondary market has been fluctuating these past two days. Those with more positions at the bottom can consider selling part of it for swing trading, leaving the rest to time. On the other hand, Binance Alpha keeps stirring things up, which is somewhat expected; the secondary market is no longer Binance's focus. To ensure profits, the platform mainly relies on contract market making; if nothing happens, no one will participate in contracts!

Additionally, I am a bit worried that BSC meme is also starting to stir things up again. To be honest, I really dislike this; what’s the point of building on a faded meme play? Building is just a breeding ground for Z P! The ones benefiting are definitely not the vast majority of retail investors. I am also a retail investor, so I absolutely do not recommend such things! It's simply a trading cancer!

After rebounding last night, the day fluctuated all day. According to the pre-market trends of US stocks, it is highly likely that there will be a fluctuating correction in the evening. $BTC small fluctuation range 90,000-94,000; recent major fluctuation range 86,200-96,000 (the probability of breaking 93,000 and touching 96,000 has increased);

As for the reasons for the second probe the day before yesterday and the explosive rise last night, I think there is no need to delve deep. The market trends, aside from following US stocks, are mainly driven by contracts: Before it fell to 80,000, I had mentioned the contract liquidation price using the contract liquidation method. There are two levels, one is 85,000 (see pinned post), and the other is 80,000 (see image one). After reaching 80,000, almost all positions with more than 5x leverage were liquidated, so the main force temporarily lost the motivation to push down, as the profits from contracts far exceed those from spot market dumping;

To start the next market trend, a period of consolidation is necessary, which is to build momentum: Simply put, it is necessary to accumulate enough short and long positions, and the main force will then determine the direction of the next market trend based on the accumulated long and short positions!

Since the short-term trend is fluctuating, one only needs to go long at the support level or short at the resistance level. Looking at the first probe at 80,600 and the second probe at 83,800, the lows are gradually rising, with two lows forming an upward trend line. Before the trend line breaks, I prefer to touch the trend line to go long, and reduce positions at the major resistance level. From the weekly volume analysis, after a volume increase and then a decrease in volume rebound, there still needs to be a low volume bearish candle to indicate the end of the selling pressure. Therefore, there may be a third probe of the trend line, with points at 86,200-87,000;

#BTC走势分析

The US stock market opened up 1 point in the evening, and $btc also surged by 6-7% instantly. Some altcoins also saw significant increases. Currently, the US stock market is in a correction phase, making it unsuitable to chase the rise. The current market is characterized by sharp increases and decreases; even if it moves independently, it is still a fluctuating upward trend. Therefore, for those who missed the opportunity to add positions at the low, it is better to wait for a stable correction!

The four coins mentioned at 8 o'clock (see image one) have also shown good gains:

$FARTCOIN $FET increased by over 20% after 8 o'clock, and $wld also rose by 15%, which is a decent swing. Sell part of it, and look for opportunities to swing again after the correction!