Hamidkakar

Hello Traders! 👋

What are your thoughts on Bitcoin?

Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is currently navigating a critical juncture on the daily timeframe. After a steady recovery within a rising structure, the price has reached a high-confluence zone that will likely dictate the market's direction for the coming weeks.

Key Chart Observations:

Since the February lows, BTC has been respecting a well-defined Ascending Channel. The price is currently testing the upper boundary of this channel, which often acts as a short-term exhaustion point.

A long-term bearish trendline stemming from the previous peak is now intersecting perfectly with the current price action. This is the primary hurdle for the bulls.

Critical Zones:

Supply Zone: Located between $78,000 – $80,000. This area is reinforced by the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level ($79,157). A daily close above this level is mandatory for a trend reversal.

Demand Zone: A solid support base sits between $60,000 – $63,000, which served as the launchpad for the recent move.

Potential Scenarios:

1. The Bullish Breakout:

If BTC manages to print a strong daily candle above the $80,000 psychological barrier and the red trendline, it would signal a massive structural shift.

Targets: $88,000 — $92,000 — $96,000.

2. Rejection & Consolidation:

Given the confluence of the channel’s resistance, the long-term trendline, and the 0.5 Fib level, a rejection is highly possible.

Support Levels: If rejected, keep an eye on the channel's midline near $72,000. A deeper correction could lead the price back to the channel’s floor or the $68,000 support area.

Trading Strategy:

For Buyers: Wait for a confirmed breakout and retest of the $80,000 zone before looking for long entries. Buying at the current ceiling carries a high risk-to-reward ratio.

For Sellers: Watch for bearish price action signals on the 4H or Daily charts near the red box for potential short plays toward the channel midline.

What’s your take? Will the bulls have enough momentum to break the "Red Wall," or are we headed for a pullback?

Please don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️

Aave has surged more than 30% since Monday, making it one of the standout performers in a market that has been searching for momentum. The move is drawing attention — and raising a question that is worth examining carefully: is this a genuine recovery, or a relief bounce after one of the most turbulent stretches in the protocol’s recent history?
To understand what the rally means, it helps to understand what preceded it. According to top analyst Darkfost, Aave has been navigating a serious confidence crisis. Chaos Labs, the risk management firm that played a central role in the protocol’s safety infrastructure, recently exited, citing fundamental misalignment on risk strategy, rising complexity from the upcoming V4 upgrade, and economics it considered unsustainable — this despite a $5 million budget proposal on the table.
The departure did not happen in isolation. It followed the exits of ACI and BGD Labs, two other key contributors, raising legitimate concerns about operational continuity and who exactly is steering Aave’s risk framework as it moves into its next phase.
That wave of exits drove the token into a steep decline on top of an already difficult broader market correction. Aave ultimately reached a drawdown of 81.6% from its peak — a level that brought it back to valuations last seen during the previous bear market.
That is the context behind this week’s 30% move. And at those depths, Darkfost notes, extreme drawdowns can begin to look like opportunity rather than warning.
Aave Has Fallen Twice as Hard as Bitcoin
One of the more telling observations in Darkfost’s analysis is the comparison between Aave’s current drawdown and Bitcoin’s. During the previous bear market, the two assets experienced corrections of roughly similar magnitude — a reflection of a market where capital pain was distributed relatively evenly across the ecosystem. The current setup looks nothing like that.

Bitcoin is down approximately 40% from its all-time high. Aave is down 81.6%. That is not a small gap — it represents Aave losing more than twice as much of its value relative to where Bitcoin stands. For anyone holding Aave through this cycle, the underperformance has been significant, and it reflects a broader pattern playing out across the altcoin market right now.
The divergence reinforces something that has become increasingly clear in this cycle: Bitcoin is acting as the anchor, the primary destination for capital when the market contracts, and the last asset to give up ground. Altcoins, particularly those facing protocol-specific headwinds like Aave has, have absorbed a disproportionate share of the selling pressure.
What makes the comparison useful is not the pain it quantifies, but the question it raises. If Aave has already absorbed twice Bitcoin’s correction — including the impact of genuine protocol uncertainty — the question of whether that gap eventually closes becomes an interesting one. The 30% rally this week suggests some investors are beginning to ask it.
AAVE Tests Key Resistance After Capitulation
$AAVE ’s price structure reflects a market attempting to transition out of a prolonged downtrend into a short-term recovery phase, but without confirming a broader reversal yet. After peaking above $200 in late 2025, the asset entered a sustained decline marked by a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. That trend culminated in a sharp capitulation move in early February, where price briefly dropped below $100 on elevated volume, signaling forced selling and a reset in positioning.

Since then, AAVE has stabilized and formed a base between roughly $95 and $115. The recent breakout toward the $115–$120 region represents the first meaningful attempt to reclaim prior support as resistance. This level is technically significant, as it acted as a consolidation zone during the breakdown phase and now serves as a key decision point.
Volume has increased modestly during the recent push higher, suggesting some return of demand, but not yet at levels that confirm strong conviction. The structure remains fragile: price is still operating within a broader bearish framework unless it can establish higher highs above $120–$130.


If AAVE holds above $110 and consolidates, it could build momentum for a deeper recovery. Failure to sustain this level would likely return the price to its prior range.

📊 Context (4H – $BNB /USDT)

Previously: downtrend (downward channel) → broken out lower and then reversed
Now: clear uptrend (ascending channel)

Structure: higher lows + higher highs = bullish pattern
📈 What is bullish?

Breakout from the downward channel
Key moment – ​​trend change
Retest and defense ~594–600
Very nice demand level
Upward impulse + momentum
Last candle: strong, breakout
RSI ~70
Strong trend (not an immediate signal to short)
Stoch RSI bounces from below
Continuation of the move is possible
📍 Key levels

🟢 Resistance:

641.9 → current local resistance (being tested now)
662.7 → main target (previous zone) supply)

🔴 Support:

611.7 → first support (local structure)
594.8 → strong support (key level)
566.6 → last line of defense of the trend
🔍 Scenarios

🟢 SCENARIO 1 — continuation (more likely)

If:
4H candle closes above 642
Then:
we are heading towards 662–670

👉 classic breakout + continuation

🟡 SCENARIO 2 — correction (healthy)
If:

rejection of 640–642
Then:
pullback to:
611 (ideal buy the dip)
max 595 (deep pullback)

👉 still bullish, only momentum reset

🔴 SCENARIO 3 — weakness (little for now) (likely)
If:

a drop below 594
Then:

a possible return to 566
the structure is starting to break down
🧠 Conclusions (most important)
Trend = UP

Momentum = strong
We are at resistance → market decision now

👉 Don't short strength
👉 Look for:

a long breakout >642
or a long pullback ~610 / ~595

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been repeating almost the exact same pattern during every Bear Cycle and its subsequent bottom.

Once the Bull Cycle tops, the market enters a correction under Lower Highs, which is technically the new Bear Cycle. A break below the Support of the Descending Triangle typically initiates Phase 2, which is where BTC is currently at.

On the 2014 and 2018 Bear Cycles, the bottom came on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). On the more recent one (2022) it was formed within the 1M MA50 - 1W MA350 (red trend-line) Zone. This is where we expect BTC to form its new bottom (minimum), within $50000 - 45000.

Notice also that the Triangle's Support has historically been either on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Cycle Low or on the 0.5 Fib (blue) from the upcoming bottom. If this is again on the 1W MA350, then this time the 0.236 and 0.5 Fibs overlap, which largely confirms this Triangle thesis.

So do you also expect one more drop or you believe the Cycle has already bottomed? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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Bitcoin is breaking out of the descending channel! But this breakout is most likely going to be a bull trap (false breakout). Why? Trading Bitcoin is not easy, and whales want you to buy it right now so they can force you to sell later in Q4 2026. In the short term, Bitcoin can hit 79k - 80k in the following weeks, but it's the best opportunity to sell/short.

Bear market progress: 61 / 100 (61%). I think Bitcoin could find its bottom in September/October 2026.

Why is this short-term uptrend a trap? From an Elliott Wave perspective, a corrective major wave usually has an ABC pattern (3-wave structure). Because Bitcoin broke out of the descending channel, we can celebrate that wave A has been formed. That means we are in wave B, and soon Bitcoin will finish this wave and start a last wave C. Wave C is usually characterized by huge capitulation of major investors and retail traders, we should see news that some of the major players got liquidated / hacked. We had this news in the previous bear market about the collapse of the FTX exchange. Currently we don't have such news. People are pretty optimistic, but I am not at this point - I am very cautious.

My main focus is on 44k because this level is a very strong support from a technical point of view. Specifically, it's the point of control in the volume profile of the previous price action on the weekly chart. On the chart you can see my prediction of how the bear market and wave C may look.

It's too early compared to the previous Bitcoin cycles to say that this was the ultimate bottom. I see it as a trap from whales and banks. Banks love Bitcoin and crypto.

Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! I am very transparent with my trades. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
16 hours ago
Trade active
I am currently long in the short term. As you can see on the chart. Soon taking profit for a quick trade.

Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current $XAU USD setup.

Market Analysis

Gold previously traded inside an upward channel, forming higher highs and confirming bullish momentum. After reaching the top, price lost strength and entered a range. Following this, gold broke below the range and formed a bearish structure with lower highs.

Currently, price is approaching the 4,860 resistance zone, which aligns with a triangle resistance line, while holding above the 4,700 support zone. This creates a compression structure, indicating a potential breakout move soon.

My Scenario & Strategy

As long as XAUUSD remains below the 4,860 resistance, the bearish bias becomes valid. A rejection from this zone could push price toward the 4,700 support (TP1) as the next downside target. If bearish momentum increases, a break below 4,700 could lead to a deeper decline toward lower levels.

However, if price breaks and holds above 4,860, the bearish scenario would be invalidated and bullish continuation could follow.

That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
2 hours ago
Trade active
We see that the price of gold continues to decline and is currently approaching the ascending support line, where buyers may intervene. So we will monitor the market!

$XAUT

Hey everyone. While everyone's panicking over geopolitical swings and wondering whether Brent will hit $150 or crash to $60, I see a completely different picture. The oil market right now reminds me of water at 80°C — everyone's waiting for it to boil at 100°C, but nobody understands the process is already underway.

Most traders are now playing on emotions from every news story out of the Persian Gulf. Strait of Hormuz blockade, US-Iran negotiations, threats of refinery bombings — and everyone rushes to buy or sell. This is a classic mistake. News isn't the cause of movement. It's just a convenient explanation they feed you after the move has already happened.

Geopolitical Theater and Real Drivers
Yes, Brent is holding around $100 after all this drama with Hormuz. Yes, the risk premium of $10-20 per barrel is real. But let's look deeper.

Iran exports 1.5 million barrels per day to China. That's a serious volume, but not critical for the global balance. Venezuela, Russia — we've been through all these stories before. The market adapts through shadow fleets, flow reorientation, discounts.

More important factor — the structural surplus of 2026. Production growth from non-OPEC+ countries exceeds demand growth from China and India. This is basic math that everyone ignores in the frenzy of geopolitical paranoia.

As for the Russian market — the impact there is negative. MOEX is trading sideways, the oil alpha is gone due to tax changes and inflationary pressure. Oil companies aren't showing the previous correlation with commodity prices.

My Base Case: $85-120 Consolidation
This is where the majority gets it completely wrong. Everyone's looking for directional movement — either a moon shot to $150 or a crash to $60. But I see extended consolidation in the $85-120 range followed by an upward breakout.

Why exactly this range? Too many triggers for volatility in both directions:

- Uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz blockade

- Potential strikes on refineries in Iran, Qatar, UAE

- Trump negotiations (every de-escalation signal knocks off $5-10)

- OPEC+ quota corrections after Q2 results

- Logistical problems with Russia's shadow fleet

Each of these factors can move the market 10-15% in either direction. But combined they create volatility equilibrium, not trending movement.

Crowd Psychology: Classic Mistakes
Right now speculators are building long oil positions during geopolitical flare-ups. This is a typical momentum-trading mistake. Buying on fear, selling on relief.

Institutions are playing contrarian. Banks analysts are already talking about fading the geopolitical effect. Finam writes: "Expensive oil no longer supports equities". They understand that structural factors matter more than news spikes.

Scenarios with Specific Triggers
Base case (65% probability): Consolidation $85-120 through end of 2026. Trigger for upper boundary — escalation in Persian Gulf. Trigger for lower — US-Iran deal or non-OPEC supply surplus.

Bearish scenario (20% probability): Downward break to $75-80 with full de-escalation and return to structural surplus. Trigger — successful Trump negotiations and removal of all Iran sanctions.

Bullish scenario (15% probability): Move to $130-150 with full Hormuz blockade or strikes on critical infrastructure. But this is more of a short-term spike than sustainable trend.

My Positions and Tactics
I'm trading the range. Buying lower boundaries of my box, selling upper ones. Every box on the chart is a potential entry point. Now waiting for acceptable levels around $88-92 for buys.

Not chasing every geopolitical spike. Patiently building positions in value zones. The oil market isn't crypto — different laws apply here. Fundamental cycles, long-term contracts, infrastructure constraints.

My horizon is 6-12 months. Waiting for consolidation to complete with an upward breakout against the backdrop of excess inventory depletion and global demand growth in 2027.

Why the Breakout Will Be Up
Long-term picture remains bullish. Underinvestment in new fields from 2020-2023 is showing. ESG restrictions on oil project financing haven't gone anywhere.

Geopolitical premium will become a structural price element. The world is becoming multipolar, conflicts are the norm. $10-15 geopolitical premium is baked into prices for the long haul.

India and Southeast Asian countries are ramping up consumption. China could again become a demand driver with economic stimulus.

Conclusion
While the crowd trades news and emotions, I'm building positions at technical levels in the key range. Oil is a long-term game where patience wins, not reacting to every tweet from the White House.

The coming months will show who's right — the panic crowd or those who can read market structure. I'm betting on consolidation followed by growth.$BTC $ETH