Analyst Lists 6 Key Elements of the Emerging Bitcoin Market Structure
Bernstein identified six key elements that form the emerging structure of the Bitcoin market (BitfinexUSD), noting that recent shifts in ownership and capital flows make the asset more resilient.
First, institutional accumulation remains a key pillar, as Strategy continues to buy Bitcoin aggressively even during periods of volatility, effectively acting as a steady source of demand.
Recent reports have revealed extensive American military movements to bolster the military presence in the Middle East, amid rising regional tensions and ongoing confrontations with Iran for the third consecutive week.
This step comes as part of the United States' preparations to face any potential field developments, amidst increasing fears of the conflict's expansion.
According to Reuters, citing informed sources, the American military command has sent the amphibious assault ship "USS Boxer," accompanied by an advanced reconnaissance unit and several accompanying warships, approximately three weeks ahead of its planned schedule, in a move that reflects the accelerating pace of military activities.
These reinforcements include a force estimated at around 2,500 Marine Corps troops that departed from the West Coast, along with an additional unit coming from the Indian and Pacific Oceans, expected to arrive within the next week.
These forces aim to support the current American military presence in the region, which is estimated at around 50,000 troops.
In a related context, reports indicated that the U.S. Department of Defense (Pentagon) requested the White Houseโs approval for a budget exceeding $200 billion, in preparation for presenting it to Congress, aimed at financing ongoing military operations and enhancing defensive capabilities in the region.
FedEx's shares rose by 7% in pre-market trading on Friday, following the announcement of third-quarter financial results that included the holiday season, which exceeded Wall Street's expectations in terms of revenue and profits.
The adjusted results showed that the company earned $5.25 per share, with revenue increasing by 8% to reach $24 billion during the quarter, surpassing analysts' estimates collected by Visible Alpha.
FedEx indicated that the average number of daily packages increased by 3% year-over-year, while revenue per package rose by 6%, reflecting strong demand for shipping services during the peak season.
The company also revised its full-year revenue and profit growth forecasts, noting that it expects to achieve savings exceeding one billion dollars as part of its ongoing cost-cutting program.
This performance is of significant importance to investors, as it reflects market satisfaction with recent results after a period of concern about the impact of tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump on demand for shipping services, which pressured the stock over the past year.
The International Energy Agency has proposed a package of suggestions aimed at mitigating the economic impacts resulting from disruptions in oil supply, amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have cast a shadow over the stability of global energy markets.
The agency clarified that addressing this crisis requires a joint effort that is not limited to governments alone but also includes companies and individuals, in an attempt to reduce energy consumption and alleviate pressure on supplies.
In this context, it called for adopting practical measures such as expanding remote work, reducing speeds on highways by no less than 10 kilometers per hour, along with limiting air travel whenever suitable alternatives are available.
The agency's Executive Director Fatih Birol confirmed that the world is facing one of the most sensitive periods in energy markets, noting that the agency has already resorted to implementing the largest draw from emergency oil reserves in its history, in an attempt to contain the ramifications of the crisis and support market stability.
He added that there is ongoing coordination with a number of major governments around the world, whether from energy-producing or consuming countries, with the aim of ensuring an effective collective response to current challenges and reducing the risks of exacerbating the crisis.
Oil prices fell during trading on Friday, amid international moves aimed at easing tensions in energy markets, as several major European countries alongside Japan and Canada announced their readiness to participate in efforts to secure shipping corridors through the Strait of Hormuz, in a step aimed at reducing the geopolitical risks threatening global oil flows.
The United States also reinforced these trends by announcing measures to increase supplies, putting pressure on prices during the session.
In trading, Brent crude futures for May delivery fell by 0.85%, equivalent to 95 cents, to record around 107.70 dollars per barrel, despite remaining above the 100-dollar mark.
In contrast, American crude futures for May โ the most active โ fell by 0.5% or 50 cents to reach 95.05 dollars per barrel, heading toward recording its first weekly loss in about five weeks.
In a notable development regarding supplies, data released by the London Stock Exchange Group and Kepler showed that the oil tanker "Sara Sky," carrying about 100,000 tons (equivalent to approximately 750,000 barrels) of Russian crude, is heading to the Bataan terminal in the Limay area of the Philippines, marking the first shipment of its kind to reach there in five years, according to Reuters, reflecting the continued flow of Russian oil to Asian markets despite restrictions and sanctions.
Gold prices saw an increase during trading on Friday, supported by opportunistic buying from investors after recent sharp declines, in an attempt to take advantage of the low levels the precious metal reached.
Despite this relative recovery, gold is still on track to record new weekly losses, marking the third consecutive week, reflecting continued pressures on the market.
According to trading data, April gold futures rose by 1.3%, equivalent to $60.80, to record about $4666.50 per ounce.
The spot price of gold also rose slightly by 0.2% to reach $4659.35 per ounce, indicating a limited improvement in actual demand for the metal.
In contrast, the performance of other metals varied, as spot silver prices fell by 2.4% to record $71.06 per ounce, despite May silver futures rising by 0.8% to $71.80.
Platinum recorded gains of 0.7% to reach $1987.2, while palladium declined slightly by 0.1% to $1449.36, reflecting a state of volatility in the metal market.
The American markets witnessed a decline at the beginning of trading on Friday, with oil prices rising again after a period of temporary calm, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by about 44 points, equivalent to 0.1%, while the S&P 500 index dropped by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite index declined by 0.7%, with continued pressure on technology stocks and interest rate-sensitive sectors.
This decline came after the markets had shown some recovery during Thursday's session, driven by statements from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in which he indicated potential cooperation with the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, alongside his remarks about the reduction of Iran's capabilities in some military areas.
These statements temporarily helped calm the markets and pushed oil prices down before they quickly rose again.
On the energy front, oil resumed its gains, with Brent crude rising by 1.7% to reach $110.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude increased by 0.7% to $96.78, continuing its strong performance this month with a rise exceeding 48%.
The stocks of Rivian Automotive and Uber Technologies showed mixed performance during afternoon trading, following the announcement of a strategic partnership between the two companies in the field of autonomous vehicles.
Rivian's stock rose by more than 1%, supported by investor optimism regarding the deal, while Uber's stock fell by about 2%, amid concerns related to investment costs and their impact on profits in the near term.
This move came after Uber announced its plan to invest up to 1.25 billion dollars in Rivian, as part of an agreement aimed at deploying about 50,000 "robotaxis" in several countries around the world by 2031, in a step that reflects the accelerating competition in the smart transportation sector.
Analysts believe that this partnership could give Rivian a strong boost to enhance its presence in the electric vehicle and autonomous driving markets, especially with the financial and operational support from Uber. In contrast, some investors express caution regarding the challenges associated with the project, such as high costs and the long timeframe to achieve returns.
This variation in the performance of the two stocks reflects the market's differing assessment of the deal, with some seeing it as an opportunity for future growth, while others focus on the potential pressures on Uber's profitability in the coming period.
The United States is experiencing a sharp rise in gasoline prices, with the average price nearing four dollars per gallon, the highest level since August 2022, increasing the economic burden on consumers amid ongoing inflationary pressures.
Data from the American Automobile Association showed that the average gasoline price reached $3.88 per gallon, after jumping by about 90 cents in just one month, representing an increase of over 30%.
This rapid increase follows escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially after the violent military attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran in late February.
The repercussions of the crisis have not been limited to fuel prices alone but have extended to global oil markets, where futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate crude oil have risen by about 43%, climbing from $67.02 to $96.14 per barrel during the same period, reflecting concerns about global supply.
Analysts believe that this increase is due to disruptions in oil supply, especially with the rise in attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most vital routes for transporting oil globally, which has led to a decrease in exports from several producing countries in the Middle East and increased fears of shortages.
Key members of the Senate announced on Friday that they have reached a preliminary agreement with the White House on cryptocurrency legislation that addresses stablecoin yields, potentially breaking a months-long deadlock that has stalled the regulatory bill.
Senators Thom Tillis (Republican - North Carolina) and Angela Alsobrooks (Democrat - Maryland) worked with White House officials to develop language aimed at resolving a dispute between banks and digital asset companies over whether cryptocurrency exchanges should be allowed to pay yields to stablecoin holders through reward programs, according to Politico.
Alsobrooks said on Friday: "Senator Tillis and I have an agreement in principle, we have come a long way. And I believe what this will do is allow us to protect innovation, but it also gives us the opportunity to prevent large-scale deposit flight."
The agreement could enable the historic cryptocurrency regulatory bill to move forward in the Senate Banking Committee in the coming weeks. The legislation has been stuck in the committee since January, in part due to disagreements over stablecoin yield provisions.
The main issue has centered on whether cryptocurrency exchanges should be allowed to offer yield payments to stablecoin holders.
Bitcoin is under pressure from the large fluctuations in oil prices Bitcoin has come under pressure as Brent crude briefly rose to $119 per barrel on Thursday amid ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Oil prices later fell after the United States and its allies moved to alleviate concerns about supply.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Pysent stated that Washington might allow sanctioned Iranian oil already at sea to reach global markets, adding that further releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve remain an option if market conditions require intervention.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel will refrain from launching more attacks on Iranian oil facilities, easing some concerns about deeper disruptions to regional crude oil exports.
Brent crude later fell below $110 per barrel later on Thursday and declined again in Asian trading on Friday, helping to improve sentiment across financial markets.
The Fed's hawkish outlook is also putting pressure on Bitcoin, while it remains one of the best-performing major global assets this year, it continued to trade in line with broader macroeconomic sentiment.
Bitcoin settled near $71,000 on Friday after falling below $69,000 in the previous session, as volatile oil prices and caution over the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy outlook affected risk appetite.
The largest cryptocurrency in the world traded down 0.3% at $70,675.70 by 09:42 AM (Saudi time).
Bitcoin fell to $68,814.40 on Thursday, when a surprise spike in crude oil prices led to a broad retreat across risk-sensitive assets.
This move is part of a broader trend among major American financial institutions to expand access to products related to cryptocurrencies.
On January 5, 2026, Bank of America, the second-largest bank in the United States, began allowing its wealth management advisors to recommend exposure to four Bitcoin ETFs, which had previously only been available upon request, according to Cointelegraph.
The day before, Vanguard, the second-largest asset manager in the world, allowed its clients to trade exchange-traded cryptocurrency funds, reversing its previous stance against these products.
BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, also recommended in December 2024 to allocate up to 2% of investment portfolios to Bitcoin.
Morgan Stanley has submitted a second amended version of its S-1 application for the spot Bitcoin ETF it plans to launch, revealing details about the initial capital, trading partners, and listing plans, in a move that brings Wall Street closer to launching the product under the ticker MSBT.
The amended application clarifies that the fund aims to raise $1 million by selling 50,000 founding shares to the authorized sponsoring entity before its listing on the NYSE Arca, with the proceeds to be used later to purchase (BTC) for the fund. Morgan Stanley confirmed that the fund is still subject to regulatory approval before trading can begin.
The application also mentions Jane Street, Virtu Americas, and Macquarie Capital as approved participants, allowing them to create or redeem large blocks of shares and take advantage of price discrepancies between the price of Bitcoin and the fund's share price. This mechanism helps keep the fund's price close to the actual value of Bitcoin.
Morgan Stanley had recommended in October 2025 allocating between 2% and 4% of investment portfolios to cryptocurrencies for investors and financial advisors, and it allowed its financial advisors to recommend cryptocurrency funds to clients with individual retirement accounts (IRA) and 401(k) plans.
Cloud mining revenues accounted for about 74% of BitFuFu's total revenues in 2025, amounting to $350.6 million. In comparison, this percentage was 58.5% in 2024 when the sector achieved $271 million.
The company reported a total annual production of 3,662 Bitcoins through its own mining operations and cloud mining activities for its clients, including 611 Bitcoins from self-mining and 3,051 Bitcoins produced by cloud mining clients.
BitFuFu also stated that it has increased sales of mining equipment, which rose by 76% year-on-year to reach $53.7 million.
BitFuFu's priorities for 2026
Although the company increased its Bitcoin reserves by only 58 Bitcoins during the past year, it confirmed its commitment to expanding its Bitcoin treasury in 2026.
The company stated in a statement published on platform X:
"As we look forward to 2026, we will continue to expand our cloud mining business, increase computing power and operational energy in a disciplined manner, along with continuing to build our Bitcoin treasury."
The company's CEO Leo Lu stated that BitFuFu will focus on acquiring mining infrastructure in 2026, while continuing to evaluate potential partnership opportunities as part of its strategy for achieving vertical integration.
The results of BitFuFu for the year 2025 showed a notable shift in its business structure, as cloud mining became the main source of revenue, surpassing self-mining.
The Singapore-based mining company (BTC) announced revenues of $475.8 million in 2025, an increase of 2.7% compared to the previous year.
Its self-mining production fell to 611 bitcoins compared to 2,537 bitcoins in 2024, a decline of 76%, while its bitcoin holdings slightly increased to 1,778 bitcoins compared to 1,720 bitcoins a year earlier.
The company attributed this shift to the decline in bitcoin profits per terahash, the increase in mining difficulty, as well as the reduction in the percentage of computing power (hashrate) allocated to self-mining, with a greater focus on cloud mining products.
BitFuFu stated that it reallocated computing power from self-mining to cloud mining after daily profits from bitcoin per terahash fell by 52%, due to increased mining difficulty and a 47% reduction in computing power allocated to self-mining. The rise in bitcoin prices partially helped mitigate the impact of these factors.
The company explained that it shifted part of its computing power away from self-mining to improve capital efficiency and make revenue more stable and predictable.
Debate among traders: Long patience or regained keys?
Bitcoin traders are divided between admiration and speculation regarding this movement. Some praised the wallet holder for what they described as discipline in long-term holding (HODL) through multiple market cycles without selling.
One trader wrote:
โThereโs no leverage. No day trading. No stress. Just conviction and time. The hardest strategy is also the most profitable.โ
In contrast, others saw the more likely explanation as the wallet owner recently regained the recovery phrase or private key, and conducted a test transaction before transferring a larger amount later.
Small test transactions, often amounting to tens of dollars, are a common practice among long-inactive wallet owners, as they send a small amount first to ensure they still control the wallet and that the destination address is correct.
Traders will now watch to see if the wallet sends more of the 2,100 Bitcoin to trading platforms or to new addresses in the coming days.
An old address of one of the Bitcoin whales has returned to activity after 13 years and seven months of inactivity, having transferred 0.00079 Bitcoin (about $56), a very small fraction of a fortune currently estimated at around $147 million.
Chain data from the BitInfoCharts platform shows that the old address โ1NB3ZXโฆโ received 2,100 Bitcoin (BTC) on July 5, 2012, when the price of Bitcoin was around $6.59 per coin. At current prices, the value of this amount is about $147 million, meaning an initial investment of around $13,800 has turned into an unrealized gain exceeding 10,000 times.
This movement has attracted the attention of transaction tracking platforms such as Whale Alert and LookonChain, which monitor what are known as Satoshi-era addresses, a term often used to refer to coins that were accumulated in the early years of Bitcoin's history.
Data from BitInfoCharts indicates that the address was funded through a single large deposit on July 5, 2012, and then remained inactive for nearly 14 years.
Job layoffs are increasing with the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence in the crypto sector.
Although the White House framework focuses on workforce development and job creation in an AI-driven economy, it does not directly address the risks of job loss as this technology is increasingly adopted across various sectors.
This shift is already becoming evident in the cryptocurrency sector, where companies are racing to integrate AI technologies into their operations. Over the past two months, multiple companies in the fintech and cryptocurrency sectors have announced employee layoffs.
In February, payment company Block, founded by Jack Dorsey, stated that it would reduce about 40% of its workforce, with the co-founder citing the rapid use of AI tools as a key factor behind the restructuring.
Later, blockchain data company Messari announced employee layoffs alongside a leadership change, as the company shifted to an AI-first strategy following a previous round of cuts in 2025.
This trend continued this week, as Crypto.com announced it plans to cut up to 12% of its workforce while integrating AI into its operations. In a post on platform X, CEO Kris Marszalek warned that "companies that do not make this shift immediately will fail."
The Trump administration issued a national legislative framework for artificial intelligence in the United States, calling on Congress to create a unified federal framework, warning that the patchwork of state laws could hinder innovation and weaken competitiveness.
The framework is based on six key policy areas: protecting children and empowering parents, enhancing communities, intellectual property and creators' rights, protecting freedom of expression, accelerating innovation in artificial intelligence, and workforce development.
At the heart of the proposal is a call for a unified federal approach, where the administration urged Congress to overturn state-specific artificial intelligence laws that it says could impose burdens on developers.
The framework states:
"Congress should overturn state artificial intelligence laws that impose unjustified burdens," warning that "the existence of a disparate and conflicting array of state laws will undermine American innovation and our ability to lead the global race in artificial intelligence."
The framework also calls for reducing barriers to the deployment of artificial intelligence technologies, creating regulatory sandboxes, and expanding access to federal datasets, while opposing the creation of a new regulatory body dedicated to artificial intelligence.
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