Lately, I see many friends in the crypto market seem to be a bit "tired of eating" from the airdrop segment to holding coins,... look at this picture to gain some motivation, and whether the result is right or wrong will be revealed later, but no one can be sure :))))$BTC $ETH
There are many big players like Michael Saylor - Strategy, Grayscale, Tom Lee - Bitmine, Ki Young Ju - Cryptoquant, Bitwise, Arthur Hayes - Bitmex… who believe that Bitcoin will continue to rise, thanks to the participation of Wall Street, ETFs, and institutions. The 4-year cycle is no longer relevant and has ended; they are continuously buying more and calling on everyone to buy more.
What do you think? According to the "4-year cycle" Bitcoin will drop until the end of 2026 or "This time will be different", just a price correction, Bitcoin will soon reach a new peak.$BTC
Today I officially say goodbye to Binance Alpha. Thank you for the time that has given me enough experiences to grow: from the moments of excitement, the times of stagnation, to the most important lesson of maintaining discipline and being alert to every fluctuation. I am leaving not to deny what has happened, but because it is time to choose a more suitable direction for the next stage. I wish Binance Alpha continued strong development, and I wish those who remain to reap many good results.$TIMI
#Dogecoin dropped 22% this month, $DOGE has recovered 6.5% this week to $0.138 but remains optimistic as:
Grayscale's (GDOG) and Bitwise's (GWOW) ETFs have attracted nearly $2 million in initial capital into Dogecoin. A small number, but historically significant.
Key levels: Support at $0.08 Breakout at $0.20
Analyst Ali Martinez points out two levels that will determine the next big move for DOGE:
• $0.08 = strong support cluster • $0.20 = breakout zone then resistance
#DOGE is consolidating in the range between these two levels as Bollinger Bands narrow and RSI resets a typical pattern before a breakout. Closing the week above $0.20 could open up a surge of 430% to $0.80, aligning with DOGE's accumulation => expansion cycle.
Could the ETF trigger the next wave?
The capital flow is still early but meaningful. Previous cycles had no ETF demand. As long as DOGE holds $0.08, the chart indicates a significant breakout is primed.
I hope none of my friends lost their cool with the recent bounce of $BTC .
Catching the adjustment in an uptrend can allow you to catch it and wait for it to return, while in a downtrend you need to be more cautious and wait for confirmation in various forms. You must have the mindset that if you miss it, then it's fine, even a small gain is acceptable.
Duke is arranging time to provide a report for everyone today.👍
$BTC wants to bounce further, so it needs to create a structure, holding the range of $84K-86K. If not, it will run down again, and the $80K mark is very hard to maintain.
TEAM $PLUME TRANSFER TOKEN TO 6 NEW WALLETS AND DIRECTLY DEPOSIT ON CEX EXCHANGES
- In the past 4 days, on-chain has recorded a series of notable transactions: the Gnosis Safe wallet of the Plume team successively transferred millions of PLUME to 6 new wallets, then directly deposited on CEX exchanges like Binance, Gate, Bitget, and KuCoin.
*The flow of funds follows the model: Gnosis Safe => 6 temporary wallets => exchange deposit wallet.
=> This development has left the market confused – as it looks exactly like the trading pattern of an internal dump.
*The Plume team later stated: after listing on Upbit, the liquidity between chains/exchanges was too imbalanced; many major exchanges require the project to provide ERC-20 PLUME on the mainnet to balance the pool and avoid arbitrage.
- Due to the 7-day bridge being too slow, the team decided to transfer tokens directly to meet liquidity requirements (?)
=> However, at this point, an official confirmation is still needed:
- Has the explanation truly been completed? - Are the tokens sent to the exchange being sold or just used as liquidity inventory? - Is the token distribution process for CEX standardized to avoid repeating panic scenarios?
As predicted, the MZ range this week is narrow and lies within the MZ zone of last week => There is a possibility of a breakout, but the direction is still unclear. It could be both directions ^^
This morning, the price has dropped to the buying zone S1 of the week at 86k. If tonight the US session shows strong signals to bounce back from this zone, then the possibility of a breakout upwards, to test the Virgin VAH zones above.
However, if the price breaks below S1 of the week and no buying force is seen, then it may drop to S2, retesting the recent low and possibly going down to the target S3-S4 of the week.
That's it for now. For the monthly frame, we will have to wait for a few more candles to run before I analyze it further ^^
MICROSTRATEGY FIRST TIME ADMITTING THEY MAY SELL $BTC IN AN EMERGENCY
🔸MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le confirmed they may sell a portion of the 649,870 BTC if they find themselves in an extremely tight financial situation to protect shareholders.
🔸This is in stark contrast to the "never sell" philosophy of Chairman Michael Saylor and demonstrates that previous skepticism regarding this claim has some basis.
🔸CEO Phong Le stated they will only sell BTC when two conditions occur: ➤ The market value of MicroStrategy is below the value of the BTC they hold (mNAV below 1x) ➤ The company cannot raise additional capital through stock issuance or debt borrowing.
🔸MicroStrategy has to pay about 750 to 800 million USD in preferred dividend payments each year, which they previously funded through stock issuance, but now the stock price has dropped significantly making this method more difficult. MicroStrategy's stock operates similarly to a leveraged Bitcoin ETF.
🔸This means the likelihood of MicroStrategy selling BTC randomly is low, but if they are forced to sell, the market at that time will almost certainly be in a state of extreme panic, and the selling pressure will worsen the situation.
In my opinion, it is the result of many negative news and contexts.
1) Yen carry trade
Yen carry trade is a popular investment strategy: Investors (such as hedge funds) borrow money in Japanese yen (JPY) at very low interest rates (close to 0% for many years), then convert it to USD or other currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets, such as American stocks, Bitcoin, or other crypto altcoins. They profit from the interest rate differential and the rising asset prices.
What has changed?
Recently, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been raising interest rates (or showing signs of an increase), causing Japanese bond yields (such as the 10-year term) to soar to 1.84% – the highest in over 17 years.
This makes borrowing yen more expensive, forcing investors to "unwind" (stop the strategy): They liquidate assets (crypto, stocks) to pay off yen debts, causing panic selling and a sharp drop in prices.
According to @ghost93_x, this is the main reason for the crypto dump on 1/12 (like $BTC down 3 - 5%, $ETH down 5%).
Institutional money is pouring heavily into $XRP , and this story is starting to get very interesting. 21Shares has just been given the green light to launch the spot #XRPETF on Cboe on Monday, becoming the 5th issuer in the U.S. in just a few weeks. Meanwhile, XRP ETFs have amassed up to 687 million USD in net inflows, completely draining liquidity on the exchange and creating a risk of true supply scarcity.
21Shares is jumping into the game, things are getting tense now.
The approved Form 8-A means the product is almost ready to trade. This is a boost following the stunning launches of Grayscale GXRP (67.36 million USD) and Franklin Templeton XRPZ (62.59 million USD). The big players are building their positions. XRP is set to soar.
The capital flow is… I have to say it’s “hot.”
• Total assets of XRP ETF: 687.8 million USD • The ETF now holds 0.52% of XRP market cap • Not a single coin has been withdrawn • The latest trade added another 22.68 million USD
$XRP is quietly becoming one of the strongest institutional plays at the moment. And if the money flow maintains this pace, the market will have to re-evaluate XRP. Whether you’re ready or not.
Just at the beginning of the month, $BTC had a pretty intense correction.
This is partly due to the funding rates continuously remaining in positive territory and the StockRSI reaching its overbought zone.
The only positive aspect is that the Coinbase Premium is no longer selling off strongly but instead is buying in.
There is a possibility of testing the 80K level, but if it breaks down this year, it won't be easy because the price level at which miners incur losses is also the 80K mark.
Selling pressure from the group of miners will be eliminated if $BTC drops to that level.