Mingo铭戈

The end of quantitative tightening policy essentially marks the beginning of quantitative easing!
QT ending which is now essentially QE starting!

🔱Summary of Coinbase Ventures' 2026 Outlook Report:

1️⃣RWA perpetual fund (more RWA assets on-chain, such as oil)

2️⃣Professional exchanges and trading terminals
---Prop AMMs model: Protecting liquidity of market makers from being preyed upon
---Prediction markets: Prediction market aggregators are the future direction, providing a unified view of cross-platform real-time event odds, platform routing, position tracking, cross-platform arbitrage tools, etc.

3️⃣Next-generation decentralized finance
---Perp Markets perpetual markets: Developing more uses to earn yields
---Unsecured loans and credit: On-chain reputation combined with off-chain data
---Privacy chains: Protecting configuration and professional individual traders, such as privacy-protected assets (Zcash) and DeFi applications (private order books, lending, etc.)

4️⃣Artificial intelligence and robotics
---DEPIN + high-quality data collection
---Proof of humanity
---On-chain development with AI

🔶Key tracks: PrepDEX, prediction market aggregators, privacy chains

🔶Personal summary:

2026 may still be a year of continued popularity for PrepDEX + prediction markets, and the World Cup is approaching, many users can participate in events like the World Cup without resorting to underground trading methods for predictions.

🎗️Partnership between EdgeX + Polymarket
🎗️Lighter + Kalshi or self-developed prediction market (speculation)
🎗️Aster + Opinion (speculation)
🎗️Backpack + self-developed prediction market (speculation)

The combination of mainstream PrepDEX and prediction markets will bring greater trading volume and liquidity funds, with huge potential opportunities in 2026, marking a more grand narrative direction!!!

#polymarket #kalshi #预测市场

Before Trump spoke,
all left-side trades were wrong!

🚀【Aster's chaotic expansion and volume manipulation will eventually backfire】

💛From the announcement of the second phase of the Genesis Trading Points Competition, distributing 4% token rewards

💛To increasing holding time x5 point rewards

💛To increasing holding time x10 point rewards

💛To changing the S2 distribution rules, either accept partial fee refunds or accept token distribution (most likely to backfire)

On the surface, it seems to encourage real users to participate! Filtering out bot users and high-frequency volume manipulators! But in fact, it's a premeditated scheme!

From the exposure of Aster tokens having 95% concentration, to irrational price surges, creating bubbles, increasing trading volume and fee income, until surpassing HyperLiquid, making retail investors and studios help create liquidity and trading volume, and receiving fees themselves!

🎉Daily trading volume surged to 1233 billion, can it be confirmed that it can be distributed to real users? How much Aster can you get from that little amount you brushed? How many real users don’t brush? So it’s either the manipulators, or you earn nothing!

🎉Still, the same saying, where there are more retail investors, there are more scythes! If you want to earn points, the market makers want to earn your principal!

The timing of the official rule adjustments is also particularly good, announced only after the Korea Blockchain Week and Singapore 2049, without giving everyone a chance to protect their rights face to face!

In short, return to rationality!!! If you want to make money, you need to find undervalued projects with less retail FOMO, doing things honestly without showing off, and high-growth potential, only then can you make money in the market!🎒

#BNB创新高 #ASTER #PREP

🚀【Aster's Valuation and Price Analysis!】

✨It is clear that Aster's current price of $1.73 is completely detached from rationality. On one hand, it was revealed that the team holds 95% of the chips, and on the other hand, CZ stirred up emotions and the narrative explosion of PREP, causing the price to be inflated.

✨Of course, the current daily trading volume is twice that of Q3, and the revenue from transaction fees will naturally increase, but it is still far from reaching the scale of Hyper.

As the tide recedes, as the enthusiasm fades away,
it will become clear who is swimming naked and who is Fomo-ing!
Dust to dust, earth to earth!

Q: What projects can be done recently?
A: Base Metamask Monad polymarket Opensea backpack edgeX lighter Kraken Plasma
Q: Analyze, which one to do?
A: Analyze a P! ...

🚀【How big is Alpha's Boundless毛 on Monday?】

✨ Announcing Alpha's weekend project to go on Boundless ($ZKC) that everyone is not competing for, all users are getting 185 points to pick up bargains, at least 45u each, it seems everyone is accumulating points to strengthen their毛

✨ News:
Boundless is valued at 290 million (0.29u each) on kaito
Off-market price is 0.76
Suspected Binance address received 150 million $ZKC (possibly for Holder and trading competition)
Bybit's new user event gives 150 $ZKC

✨ Judging from these news and past experience, it is speculated that each person can have 120-150 coins, with over 50,000 quotas, distributing approximately 6 million to 8 million coins, single order earnings 90u-120u, qualification points for the first stage 220 points, second stage 200 points

✨ It depends on the project's vision, after all, it will be listed on Binance spot, the毛 won't be too small, worth looking forward to, but there's no need to panic!

The above analysis is for reference only, subject to the final Binance announcement!

⚠️【Why is your WOD usage so high??】

💥Let’s take a look at the WOD dealer and the two arbitrage methods used recently!!

✨First method: Staircase dumping
This occurs every certain period (15 minutes), where the coin price drops by 1%. For example, if you are trading with 1000u, you could lose at least 10u in one transaction. As long as there are many traders during this time, the dealer could earn at least 10000u+ in arbitrage profit every day. The more participants, the higher the profit.

✨Second method: Horizontal short fluctuations + staircase dumping
This method is an upgraded version of the first one. The traders have become smarter because they learned from the previous losses during the downturn. So the dealer tries to keep the price stable, and there will still be traders willing to participate. During this time, with the help of bots continuously buying and selling to slightly raise the price, you will find that the price you manually enter never matches, then you cancel the order and place a higher price. You will notice that your price has increased significantly compared to the initial price. When everyone's price rises to a certain extent, the dealer's other dumping account will perform a small dump, resulting in everyone's loss of about 0.5%, 5u, or even 10u. Everyone panics and sells at a low price. If they don’t sell, it’s like the first method, and the losses keep increasing! At this time, the dealer continues to use bots for trading, gradually raising the price again, waiting for the next batch of people to fall into the trap!

💥This is the most commonly used arbitrage method in WOD over the past few days! The dealer's chips have 0 cost; they can dump as much as they want and raise the price as high as they want. The current Alpha has already become the dealer's arbitrage tool. Everyone trading Alpha is actually providing liquidity for the dealer. The current model is retail investors vs project parties, with Binance providing the stage; profits and losses depend entirely on skill!

In the dark forest, we must protect our chips!!!

🚀【Binance Alpha's LINEA airdrop has 70,000 spots, super big benefits!】

✨The recently announced Binance LINEA qualification score is only 220 points, the second phase is 200 points, each person receives 7,700 tokens, calculated at an off-market rate of 0.026, approximately 200 USD, the score is very low, it can be said to be a benefit!

✨A total of 539,993,300 LINEA (70,129 spots), the number of spots is also huge, the second phase must be grabbed!

✨Remember two times:
First phase: 220 points, 10:30 PM (UTC+8)
Second phase: 200 points, 4:30 PM (UTC+8)

🔶 [$SWTCH Valuation Price Analysis!]

Today, everyone thinks the $SWTCH is a small issue? The low estimate is 0.1, but in fact, the oracle track is dominated by only Chainlink (23.6 billion), followed closely by Pyth (1.61 billion). If SWTCH is valued at 0.1, it would only have a valuation of 100 million, which is still too little. I expect the price to reach 0.5 or above, at least having confidence in 0.2 (valuation 200 million), and the main Solana chain should provide the price feed!

Now, any random meme with nothing can claim a valuation of 100 million, so why can't SWTCH be valued at 200 million?

🎒【Armani: About the Backpack Roadmap】

⭐️Key Points:

✨There are a total of 4 seasons (until January 2026), and the last season will undergo stress testing, meaning that passing the stress test will allow for TGE, while failing may lead to a 5th season!

✨To obtain compliance licenses from exchanges in the United States, Europe, and Japan, Backpack will always aim to be a compliant CEX, unlike other projects that may grow rapidly by ignoring regulations!

✨It was mentioned that "there are two other similar big blocks on the roadmap, aiming to cover approximately 50% of the global GDP with exchanges!" This statement is quite ambitious! What could these two blocks be? Stablecoins? Coin stocks? Inflows and outflows? But it clearly indicates an intention to expand the number of market users for trading (United States, Europe, Japan, China? This would definitely exceed the 50% scale)

✨In the 3rd season, the focus will still be on expanding market scale (trading volume and staking liquidity will also increase)

✨Product performance and stability will see significant updates and optimizations in the near future

--- Roadmap, stay tuned to Backpack's official Twitter! An announcement may be coming!

🎏【Binance Alpha Rule Update, Encouraging User Participation in Trading Competitions!】

🔶Key Points to Note:

1. Effective from September 4th
2. Only tokens airdropped or TGE'd on Binance Alpha within 30 days count towards trading volume
3. Buying transactions of BSC chain tokens count as 4x Alpha trading volume
4. No more brushing stablecoin KOGE

🔶Interpretation:

✨Under the new rules, everyone is encouraged to trade newly launched tokens, which also rewards new projects with market-making and transaction fee incentives, while encouraging everyone to actively participate in trading competitions and gain more airdrop rewards!

✨Choosing a relatively stable price for Alpha daily is key to minimizing wear and tear, and fast in-and-out transactions are required. Here, it actually encourages using market prices, as 4x trading volume only requires BSC chain tokens! (Originally, market price was 2x, limit price was 4x)

✨Users in the trading competition will become increasingly competitive, so choosing tokens that are not overly competitive will lead to extra rewards in the competition!

✨Due to increased wear and tear among Alpha users, numbers may decrease, and markets for tokens with insufficient liquidity are dark forests, where traps and price control are bound to happen, benefiting studios!

✨Airdrop rewards may increase due to the decrease in Alpha users!

🚀【Interpreting OKX's Boost (Alpha) is Coming Soon!】

Boost includes three main sections: X-Launch, Giveaway, and Trading Competition!

🔶X-Launch: Equivalent to Binance's direct airdrop, with qualification points required for participation.

🔶Giveaway: Similar to Binance's booster tasks, completing small tasks from project parties to draw xxx spots, with rewards shared equally.

🔶Trading Competition: A trading contest where rewards are shared based on the rankings of the top xxx participants.

🔶X-Launch Points: Balance points + trading points, trading points will likely be tiered; reward multipliers based on trading volume will be obtained from trading different types of tokens (same as the fee ratio charged), essentially encouraging trading between stablecoins/BTC/ETH/SOL (Type 1) and Meme coins (other types)!

🔶Points Duration: 15 days

🔶Interpretation:

1. We will see if X-Launch has a profit effect? Will the reward frequency be at least one a day like Binance? So far, it has only attracted small players and hasn't expanded the user base!

2. The X-layer ecosystem has cooled down again; there haven't been any popular new projects coming out, everyone is playing short-term trades. Star mentioned the $100 million support for X-layer, but we haven't seen how specific rewards will be given, it seems more like a pie-in-the-sky idea!

3. The relationship between X-Launch and OKB has not been disclosed; this can be crucial. If there are very few benefits, it is likely to dilute the interest!

4. Giveaway and Cryptopidia will also be linked to X points (like Binance’s at least 61 points). This area is currently occupied by studios and bots; it seems there are many interactions, but the rewards do not reach real users. Only DEX trading users can participate, significantly reducing the number of studio accounts, allowing for more concentrated distribution of rewards to genuine users!

5. Many people will complain about OKX's DEX charging fees, but did the small players forget that GMGN has already charged 1%? The tokens launched by http://Pump.fun also charge 1%. OKX's fees are still reasonable; after all, companies need to make money, they are not doing charity!

🥶【Four.meme IPO re-investment again!】

✨IPO fundraising: 250 million USD
✨Total cost for USD1 exchange: 115u
✨IPO quota: 1.54u (max 6u)

✨Transaction fee: round trip 5*2=10u
✨Price difference: (1.002-0.999)*5000=105u

At a glance, the price fluctuation of USD1 indicates manipulation by the big players. People think they can get high returns from Four.meme, but in reality, your returns can't even cover the costs. Even worse, the project party only gives each user a quota of 6u (max), it’s ridiculous. The product planning level of Four.meme is just trash!

It's been 2 consecutive rounds, brothers! Four.meme's landscape is clear, right!

✨【August Alpha Earnings Summary, The Era of Competition!】

☘️1. The Alpha profit effect has significantly decreased, with large gains in the second half of the month shifting to wallet TGE and booster+TGE, BondingCurve (also aimed at combating studios)

☘️2. The only direct airdrops for the entire month are $PROVE and $K

☘️3. Direct airdrop earnings are between 30u-50u

☘️4. The qualification score for first-come-first-served is around 220 points, TGE qualification score is 240 points+

☘️5. The monthly earnings from low guarantee direct airdrops are around 250u, while deep users can earn 500u+

☘️6. Risk control has become stricter, with facial recognition frequency sometimes requiring verification once a week

(Earnings data statistics are generally based on selling at opening or selling within half an hour)

🔥【Analysis of Binance Alpha 3.0 Version, Summary of Best Strategies】

🔶Alpha Version:
1⃣️Alpha 1.0, Trading rewards through airdrops
2⃣Alpha 2.0, Points system (direct airdrop, wallet TGE)
3⃣Alpha 3.0, Deep participation + points system (direct airdrop, wallet TGE, Booster, wallet Pre-TGE, Bonding Curve)

🔶Binance Alpha has gradually transitioned users from beginner mode to deep users within the entire ecosystem, starting from basic trading, slowly teaching users how to use wallets, even teaching how to participate in TGE new offerings, and then gradually diving into the DeFi ecosystem's Booster activities, transforming users who initially only wanted to speculate into deep users of the exchange and wallets through a funnel model.

🔶The model of Alpha 3.0 has added more rich gameplay options for project parties to choose from. Based on the earnings data from August:

1⃣Direct airdrop: Earnings are decreasing, mostly between 30u-50u
2⃣Wallet TGE: Most earnings are above 50u (the highest being $RICE at 350u, $MITO at 90u)
3⃣Booster + TGE: 100u+ ($BTR at 180u, $BAS at 100u)
4⃣Bonding Curve: 100u+ ($RION at 500u, $TAKE at 160u)
5⃣Booster: Ranges from 10u-200u ($TREE at 188u (staked 1 $ETH))

🔶Significant earnings are shifting towards Wallet TGE, Booster + TGE, and Bonding Curve. These models have enhanced the utilization efficiency of BNB and even encouraged retail investors to hold BNB and actively participate in Booster activities.

🔶Why are Booster activities important? See the chart below. Boosters can earn small rewards through simple tasks (staking, following and retweeting on Twitter, transferring funds, etc.), with a certain probability of obtaining significant rewards. Moreover, some TGE and Pre-TGE opportunities require participants to be Booster players. Currently, there are about 20,000 to 50,000 Booster users. If TGE includes high segmentation, it can greatly filter out most users, which is why TGE offers high returns!

🔶Best strategies for Alpha 3.0 model:

1. First, participate in new model new offerings (accumulate over 240 points) (2-3 rounds)
2. Use the remaining points to grab direct airdrops on a first-come, first-served basis (can participate if there are good projects) (2-3 rounds)
3. Learn to use lending products like Aave, Venus, ListaDAO (borrow 3 BNB)
4. Participate more in Booster activities (some require qualifications for TGE and Pre-TGE participation)

🌲【Interpreting Treehouse's Binance Wallet Phase 2 Booster Event】

Staking Period: August 27, 2025 00:00:00 to October 10, 2025 23:59:59 (UTC)
Staking Duration: 45 days
Rewards: $ETH earnings + $600,000 of $TREE
Staking Method: Use Binance's non-custodial wallet to stake wstETH and receive the staking certificate tETH
Path: ETH → wstETH → stake wstETH (receive tETH)

💛 The most frustrating point this time is that users who staked in the first phase do not count; they must redeem and convert back to wstETH, and then restake. This not only incurs gas fees but also involves losses from converting wstETH and converting back to tETH.

💛 For example: Taking 1ETH as an example, I spent 2.7u on gas to convert tETH to wstETH, and then stake; the Treehouse platform also charges a fee of 3.3u, (0.99688-0.99617)*4600=3.3u. If using cowswap to convert to tETH, it does not count as staking, so these costs must be borne!

💛 Therefore, the project party changes ETH to wstETH:
1. To earn transaction fees
2. To avoid being criticized for the lack of transparency in the conversion path (in the first phase, the ETH staking path involved converting to wstETH and then staking, and wstETH had significant volatility during those days; quick in and out would lead to noticeable losses)

💛 Although the details are a bit frustrating, the high staking returns from Treehouse are compelling; a day has passed, and the returns are still optimistic at 3.49% (ETH earnings) + 16.52% ($TREE earnings). Considering the first phase yielded 180u from a single ETH stake, long-term holders of ETH might consider staking for the long term!

@TreehouseFi #Treehouse #币安钱包Booster活动 #TREE $TREE

OKB has broken through 200! 🚀🚀🚀
Thanks to Star for the big red envelope! 🧧
However, this is just a return to the market value before the major burn (4.571 billion), (currently 4.2 billion), the difference is that it has attracted many retail investors to increase their positions around 120, and it is likely to reach a short-term peak!

Short-term narrative:
1. X-layer meme coins soar + DEX
2. OKX-Alpha
3. Cryptopidia

Long-term narrative:
1. Listing on NASDAQ
2. Coin stocks

$PUBLIC opened at almost 0.14, and the leaders ran first, VCs ran first, and insiders ran first! They ran openly, without even pretending! Projects with many Chinese people generally have a small scale, the same old reasoning! What's the point of splitting into two phases, when there’s neither scale nor humility in the project?

🚀【ETH Market Analysis】
Looking at the liquidation heatmap, the ETH short positions are liquidating around 4800, close to ETH's historical high, seemingly suggesting that the market believes a breakthrough is unachievable

Currently, both the long-to-short ratio and funding rates are constantly changing, with significant differences and speculative activities within the market, indicating that the recent trend is likely to remain volatile, without a clear determination of whether bulls or bears are dominant

Key short liquidation level: around 4800
Key long and short liquidation level: around 4440