Morita_k

Review summary:
The curve for the past week has looked really good, but in the end, it's all about making profits through anti-single Martingale, going from 509 to 1608.
In the past two weeks, it has also climbed up 8 times from the hellish 195.

Then tonight, I attended a Mid-Autumn dinner, and I had already made a floating profit of 10 * 1.3% at the dinner table.
However, due to the market fluctuations in the past few days, I felt that today would still drop to 1035, so I set the take-profit line at 1025, after all, the 4-hour line is steadily rising.
So out of impatience, I opened some positions again around 983, wanting to leverage up to 20 times. By the time I woke up from the alcohol around 11 o'clock, it was already at 976, and the stop-loss line was at 959.

In fact, I did incur some losses from the simultaneous long and short positions; if I hadn't opened both, the earlier profits would have been higher. So I didn't open a short position, reduced some leverage, but still had some luck mentality. After all, I lost, and still have 550 (capital position), but if I make a profit, I can pull it to 2450 in funds. However, the stop-loss slipped, and the balance is only 495. 😂, I should wash my face during this time.

【Key Point】 However, after a brief review just now, I realized that this past week has not been happy for me. I almost hit the stop-loss every night, fell asleep at 4 AM, and got up after 1 PM. This kind of life is not enjoyable. In this round of real trading, my intention was to do ultra-short-term compounding, but in the end, a single position lasted at most more than three days, feeling anxious, and in the early stage, I even tasted sweetness.

So the conclusion is that starting tomorrow, I will return to the ultra-short-term strategy and restore my schedule to that of a normal person. The tentative plan is (1 + 0.5% * 10) ^ 8, because this way, I can follow the original plan to pull it to 5000u next week. 😤😤😤😤😤

Unable to sleep, suddenly enlightened, updating a pinned message:
1. The trading market is a chaotic system (a term from logic), influenced by countless factors, so candlestick charts can only summarize past occurrences and cannot accurately predict the future. It's like humans cannot accurately predict the weather a week from now.
2. The emergence and digestion of market information will cause all factors to trend towards a single direction, so you should pay attention to periodic news and sudden news.
3. Because it is a chaotic system, theoretically your profits depend on mathematical probabilities, whether going long or short.
4. In essence, the probability here is actually the win rate and the profit-loss ratio.
5. Please pay attention to calculating the actual mathematical expectation of profits, for example, a win rate of 90% with a profit-loss ratio of 1:4. In reality, the mathematical expectation of profit is 1*0.9=0.9, and the mathematical expectation of loss is 4*0.1=0.4, so even if the unpopular approach of 'take profit and run, endure losses' is used, as long as the mathematical expectation calculation is reasonable, you can achieve stable profits.
6. So why do all the 'coaches' and 'financial bloggers' tell you that Martingale is doomed?
7. A. Because when you made a profit using 5x leverage, you unfortunately used 10x leverage when losing this time, the overall mathematical expectation will be negative, so try to maintain consistent leverage.
B. When your assets grow to 100k, a 40% drawdown means you lose more money, your resolve is shattered, emotions affect your win rate, and the overall mathematical expectation changes again.
C. Classic mathematical expectation requires a sufficiently large number of occurrences, which means you need a sufficiently long trading career. If you unfortunately fall to a very low asset level, do you have enough time to recover?
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Do not get tangled in their claims that the profit-loss ratio must be positive, do not disdain a 1% profit, beating fees, a more stable win rate, and reasonable mathematical expectations are the essence. (This does not mean you shouldn't use stop-losses; try using wider stop-losses.)
#悟道

I really was too stubborn after all.

Today is the third letter, sigh

I laughed, really it just hit 3081.75 and exploded, half an hour later it returned to my original take profit level, why is it the same plot as last night

Damn it, it's another anti-single needle injection, making it a mess.

😳😳😳😳😳😳😳Damn, how did it reach my original take profit point again? Doesn't this make my manual stop loss at the lowest point seem very foolish?

It's very painful. I set a loss of 3136 myself. Seeing his situation is not good, I manually lost at 3140, and it really did hit the lowest point. Damn, I'm about to break down.

Damn it, I got damaged at the lowest point again, and I'm still doing it manually 😭😭😭

果然不该嘚瑟

周一被跌到80u，花了三天，可算拉回来了

The market is becoming increasingly incomprehensible, shrugging my shoulders

Actually, I really hate doing this kind of one-sided market. Either I get off too early, or I lack the courage to get on. It's difficult.

I haven't looked at the K-line for a while, there's simply no way to enter the market

Focus on making Douyin.

Even 0.1% fluctuations can happen in seconds, it's absurd.

Ganlin, I opened too much, it’s not moving at all, I leveled up and scrolled through Douyin, directly pulled back to 2900, damn

The US IP will have restrictions, and the US IP can only use binance.us

Recently, this operation has been happening all the time, resisting the single trade, making a small profit and running away, 10 minutes later, he pulled it.

Scary👿👿👿👿$ETH