哟西妮基君

In the past decade, if you missed out on Bitcoin's 87.6% annual compound growth rate, don't worry, the real story may just be beginning.

In 2015, a Bitcoin priced at $430 seemed like an adventure; by 2025, a Bitcoin worth $92,000 has become history. Behind this 215-fold increase is a crypto epic written by halving cycles, global consensus, and institutional money.

But every legend has a turning point. In the next decade, Bitcoin will face not whether it can rise, but in what manner it rises.

Two futures lie before you. If you believe in rationality, when the growth rate returns to a sustainable 30% annual rate, you will see Bitcoin at $1.27 million by 2035. This is the realistic path paved by steady institutional inflows and global adoption curves.

If you expect miracles, maintaining the mythic growth rate of 87.6% from the past decade, Bitcoin will reach $50 million by 2035—but that means it would need to consume the global stock market and restructure the monetary system. Mathematics allows it, but the world does not.

The truth often shines in the middle. The most likely future is an annual growth rate of 20%-35%, with a price range of $600,000 to $1.5 million. Behind this number are the funds that ETFs are opening, supply rules that tighten every four years, and an era that is rethinking value storage.

Ten years ago, if someone told you Bitcoin would rise 200-fold, you might not have believed it; today, if someone tells you Bitcoin can reach a million dollars—this time, it carries a different weight. History does not simply repeat itself, but capital always chases scarcity.
#加密市场观察 #BTC $BTC

Binance recently announced a new management structure and business progress, and Big Brother also sent his congratulations.

The core changes are reflected in the management team, as co-founder He Yi has been appointed as co-CEO, and will lead the company alongside current CEO Richard Teng. This arrangement aims to combine He Yi's deep understanding of the crypto industry with Richard's experience in traditional finance, creating a complementary leadership structure.

In terms of business data, Binance's global user count is about to surpass 300 million, achieving an increase of approximately 50 million from 250 million at the end of last year. This growth data shows that despite ongoing regulatory pressure, the platform has maintained steady expansion of its user base.

In terms of future direction, Sister Y will work with Richard to promote Binance's globalization strategy, focusing on the construction of Web3 infrastructure and the vision of "promoting financial freedom."

This announcement did not mention the specific arrangements for Big Brother. There have been speculations in some prediction markets about CZ possibly returning to the company's business in some form, but the official information has not confirmed these rumors.
#币安区块链周 #加密市场观察

Traditional media often carries a clear bias when reporting events, with content that often serves specific interest groups. This results in the same event being presented in starkly different ways across different media narratives, where the objectivity of reporting frequently gives way to subjective biases and expressions of stance.

In sharp contrast is the operational logic of prediction markets. These markets use real money as a means of expression; even if there are initial pricing discrepancies, arbitrage actions quickly correct the prices, pushing market expectations back to the real situation.

From this perspective, prediction markets play a dual role: they are both the media of the future, reflecting potential outcomes of events more directly through financial betting and data changes; they are also the future of media, providing a possibility that transcends the limitations of subjective narratives, allowing multiple parties to collaboratively approach the truth through rational games.
#美SEC推动加密创新监管 #加密市场观察

Yili Hua stated that the adjustment period of the cryptocurrency market lasting for two months may be nearing its end. Although Bitcoin has risen to $93,000, BCH has reached a recent high, and sectors like WLFI have also performed well, Ethereum and the overall cryptocurrency market's gains still lag behind the U.S. stock market and the favorable macro environment.

This round of correction, lasting about 60 days, is the result of multiple factors: the liquidity tightening in the industry triggered by events last October, the impact of the traditional four-year cycle, expectations of interest rate hikes in Japan, and the shocks from the U.S. government shutdown all played a role. Currently, it appears that these negative factors have gradually been digested by the market.

With the appointment of the new chairperson of the Federal Reserve confirmed—another important position that holds a friendly attitude towards the cryptocurrency sector after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission—the market's policy environment is expected to improve. With the dual drive of rising interest rate cut expectations and cryptocurrency-friendly policies, the subsequent market trend is worth looking forward to. Investment requires not only sharp judgment but also patience regarding market cycles.
#加密市场回调 #加密市场观察

Now these blockchain events are all just a pretext for people to come and take advantage... I watched the video, and it's really hard to describe, but comparing it this way, the Koreans are definitely more dedicated🤣
#BinanceBlockchainWeek

Old Deng doesn't know what to say again in the early morning...
#美联储重启降息步伐

The market is showing an upward sentiment, which can be understood as an immediate reaction to the Federal Reserve's formal end of balance sheet reduction. During the day, the Federal Reserve injected liquidity into the banking system through a $13.5 billion overnight repurchase operation, which is the second-largest liquidity injection in a single day since the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, such overnight repurchase operations are not a proactive monetary easing; rather, they are a passive liquidity injection taken by the Federal Reserve to maintain system stability after the short-term liquidity has been excessively withdrawn. This measure is characterized by its one-time, emergency nature. The core factor determining whether short-term liquidity truly eases does not lie in such operations, but rather in whether the SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) hard constraint is relaxed.

Currently, the SLR rules have not been adjusted, which means that banks' ability to expand their balance sheets remains limited, making it difficult to take on a large amount of U.S. Treasuries and unable to fully hedge against the market impact brought about by fiscal activities. Therefore, this market rise reflects more of an emotional release regarding the end of the balance sheet reduction policy itself, rather than a fundamental improvement in systemic liquidity brought about by the $13.5 billion repurchase funds.

In short, whether short-term dollar liquidity can truly turn to easing depends on whether the SLR will be adjusted. If the SLR continues to maintain its current constraints, the market may oscillate repeatedly between liquidity being drained and passive liquidity injections, making it difficult to form a sustained and broad funding easing environment.
#加密市场回调 #加密市场观察

Elon Musk recently issued a warning about the U.S. economy, believing that the continuously rising debt levels may push the U.S. into a profound crisis, which could become a catalyst for the volatility of Bitcoin prices.

In an interview, Musk elaborated on his unique insights regarding the future of currency. He predicted that the traditional concept of "currency" may gradually disappear, and energy will become the ultimate hard currency. His support for Bitcoin is based on this logic, emphasizing that "Bitcoin is based on energy, and energy cannot be created through legislation." At the same time, he pointed out that the U.S. is significantly increasing the money supply with an annual deficit of about $2 trillion.

For the short-term future, Musk provided a specific timeframe. He predicts that in about three years, breakthrough developments in artificial intelligence will cause the output growth of goods and services to surpass the growth rate of money supply, potentially leading to deflation, interest rates falling to zero, and debt pressures easing compared to current levels.

It is worth mentioning that Musk previously supported Trump's campaign citing concerns about U.S. debt issues, but their relationship quickly deteriorated after Trump failed to effectively control government spending. Although Musk's public support for cryptocurrencies is not as strong as it was around 2020, he continues to endorse Bitcoin and Dogecoin. He even stated that the "American Party" in his vision would be more inclined to choose Bitcoin over the U.S. dollar, believing that fiat currencies like the dollar, which are not asset-backed, have no hope.
#加密市场观察 #加密市场回调

Listening to you is like... every time my cousin speaks, it's a wave of emotion🤣

Recently, analysts have various analyses and viewpoints that can basically form a line: 82,000 is the next key support, 75,000 is the bull-bear psychological threshold, and 55,000 is the limit bottom of market consensus. As for those calling for 35,000, it currently seems to be pure nonsense.

The current market is frustrating and can easily lead to repeated face slaps. At present, only those focusing on swing trading and arbitrage can find a rhythm. Those who are eager to catch the bottom have probably already died three rounds...😂
#加密市场观察

The recent developments from the CZ family office have indeed stirred quite a wave within the BNB ecosystem.

Their family office, YZi Labs, has suddenly taken action, aiming to take over the board of CEA Industries, which manages the BNB treasury, claiming that "shareholder value has been destroyed." Looking at the company's stock price, which has plummeted nearly 90% from its peak in July, this is clearly not a simple market fluctuation, but rather a significant internal governance or strategic disagreement.

For ordinary holders, this matter is worth paying attention to, but there is no need for excessive panic; in the short term, it is an "internal cleansing." This feels more like a rectification of financial management and investment efficiency within the core ecosystem. The demands for returns from the big players are increasing, and the previously inefficient "lazy governance" models may no longer be sustainable. While there will be uncertainties in the short term, in the long run, if it can enhance the efficiency and transparency of treasury fund usage, it may be a positive factor for the health of the BNB ecosystem.

Emotional impact outweighs substance; the fundamentals of BNB lie in its vast exchange ecosystem, user base, and on-chain applications. The changes in the board of the treasury management company will not directly affect these core functions in the short term. However, market sentiment is sensitive, and the volatility of related concept assets may exacerbate in the short term.

The strategy for retail investors, with the core principle being to watch more and act less, remains focused. Do not act blindly, and do not rush to buy or sell based on a single piece of news. Avoid chasing those logically weak related concept small coins, as this is often the highest risk area. Concentrate attention on the long-term fundamentals of core assets like BNB, rather than short-term speculative noise. Let the bullets fly for a while, and after the intentions and results of the internal rectification become clearer, reassess its long-term impact on the ecosystem.

The coin circle has never lacked drama, but investors should not disrupt their own script. In the face of adjustments at the big player level, retail investors should remain calm, observe, hold onto core assets, and wait for the situation to clarify, which is often a more prudent choice.
#加密市场观察 #BinanceBlockchainWeek $BNB

The Federal Reserve has officially pressed the stop button on QT.

Although this step is more symbolic in terms of the actual scale of balance sheet reduction, given that the pace of reduction has clearly slowed recently, its direct impact may be limited. However, in the current market environment, the signal of stopping the reduction itself has a significant psychological impact.

Market sentiment often leads actual data. A continuous outflow of funds, even if only slowing down, can provide a moment of respite for strained nerves. It conveys a key expectation that the most severe phase of liquidity tightening may have passed, and the policy balance is tilting from "suppressing inflation" to "focusing on growth."

Ultimately, having hope itself is an important support. It can provide an anchor for the market, allowing cautious funds to begin reassessing risks and mentally preparing for the potential upcoming easing cycle.
#加密市场观察 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

The end of the year has come, and it's time for the annual major layoffs at the exchanges. The layoff posts on xhs have surged dramatically...

Since Nick Timiraos, a spokesperson for the Federal Reserve, has already made his statements, it seems that Hassett taking over the Federal Reserve is now a highly probable event. From this moment until Powell's term ends in May next year, a power transition period for a "shadow Federal Reserve" will officially begin.

Those familiar with political operations know that once a successor is clear, the original power structure will begin to loosen. Many policy officials and insiders will naturally gravitate towards the successor, seeking to occupy advantageous positions in the new landscape, while the actual influence of those about to leave will correspondingly weaken.

This means that the Federal Reserve may enter a phase in the next six months where internal positions are more dispersed and the decision-making process becomes more complex. Discrepancies among different factions regarding interest rate paths, inflation management, and economic outlook may become more openly presented.

For the market, the monetary policy signals in the coming months may seem somewhat noisy, requiring careful discernment of which official information represents the overall stance of the Federal Reserve and which may reflect the voices of different internal factions. The uncertainty of this transition period itself will become a new variable influencing market expectations.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #特朗普加密新政

Don't panic, the Federal Reserve has already turned on the faucet!

On December 1st, the Federal Reserve injected $13.5 billion into the market through overnight repurchase operations. What does this figure mean? It is second only to the scale during the 2020 pandemic crisis and even larger than during the 2000 internet bubble.

In simple terms, overnight repurchase is like a very short-term loan between the Federal Reserve and banks: when banks are tight on cash, they use government bonds as collateral to borrow money from the Federal Reserve, promising to pay it back the next day. For banks, it's an emergency turnover; for the Federal Reserve, it's a key tool for injecting liquidity into the entire financial system.

In the short term, this is a positive signal for the market. Once liquidity returns, banks will have money to lend and invest, significantly alleviating the pressure of 'lack of money' in the market. Whether it's the stock market, bond market, or cryptocurrency, all may gain support from this.

More importantly, this action itself conveys a clear attitude: the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the market, ready to step in to support it at any time, and will not allow a crisis to happen. This undoubtedly gives investors a sense of reassurance. In times of market panic, such signals are often worth noting.
#加密市场回调 #加密市场观察

The market's reaction to Hassett potentially becoming the Chairman of the Federal Reserve has been much calmer than expected. The Polymarket prediction platform shows that his nomination probability has exceeded 77%, but the interest rate market has not experienced significant fluctuations. There may be a few reasons behind this calmness.

From his background, Hassett comes from a traditional economics background—Ph.D. from Wharton School, professor at Columbia University, and has served as a senior economist at the Federal Reserve. This background is closer to the traditional central bank technocrat path than Powell's, and at least on paper, he meets the market's professional expectations for the leader of the Federal Reserve.

More importantly, there are his policy inclinations. Although he is a supporter of the Trump economic agenda, his recent statements emphasize a slow and steady observation of data, rather than being the extreme radical that outsiders fear. In contrast, another nominee, Milan, while advocating for interest rate cuts, also acknowledges that the neutral interest rate is around 2.5%, which is not far from current expectations. The market may judge that even if Hassett takes office, he is more likely to adopt a compromise approach rather than a drastic shift.

A deeper reason is that the market's understanding of 'the independence of the Federal Reserve' is changing. Historical experience shows that central banks find it difficult to completely detach from political influence, and investors are fundamentally more concerned about the actual path of policy easing rather than the theoretical purity of institutional independence. In the future, the market may gradually adapt to the new narrative that 'fiscal and monetary policy need to be more closely coordinated.'

Ultimately, the market is pragmatic. As long as the policy direction is predictable and does not deviate significantly, who sits in the chairman position may not be as important as imagined…
#美联储重启降息步伐 #特朗普加密新政

Binance Alpha platform has some new movements, and the airdrop strategy seems to be adjusting again. 🤔

Today, December 2, there was no airdrop announcement, and according to the recent pace, it is very likely that there will be a surprise between 16:00 and 19:00, with an estimated threshold around 245 points, worth about 30 USD. The number of users on the platform has dropped to 300,000, which is 20,000 less than before. If it continues to fall to 200,000, the participation opportunities might be very different.

A few points to note for recent operations:
Currently, you can consider scoring with $TIMI, $JCT, $ARTX, using a small amount multiple times (300-500 USD), and observing the data dashboard more closely. $ARTX has been performing relatively steadily recently.

The platform has switched to a surprise mode in the past few days, clearly not wanting users to think ahead. The strategy is to seize any available opportunities directly, prioritizing recovering transaction fees, and overall strategy can be a bit more conservative at first.

Additionally, it is worth mentioning that the wallet function has started to charge fees, but entering an invitation code can save 30% on transaction fees. The specific operation is very simple: in the Binance App, click "Wallet" - "Invite Friends", then enter the invitation code to confirm.
#加密市场回调 #alpha

The market has always been a storytelling event; a bull market has its script, and a bear market has its ballad.

When the market is good, the story is all about buy, buy, buy. There are rumors of MicroStrategy hoarding coins again, inflows into the BlackRock ETF, the Tether printing machine is running again, and even the coins confiscated by the U.S. government are hidden holdings. The narrative at this time is that institutions have unlimited firepower, and no matter how high the price goes, there are buyers ready to step in.

When the market cools down, the story changes immediately; ETFs start to see net outflows, MicroStrategy is rumored to be selling coins at a loss, and all holders turn into potential selling pressure. The narrative at this point becomes about cutting losses regardless of cost, and no matter how much the price drops, there are sellers ready to strike.

How to operate sounds almost like me, a little retail investor, right?🤣
#加密市场观察

What on earth is going on… This week has ended with a start😨

South Korea has come up with a 'Korean formula' for stablecoin regulation.

According to the latest news, the ruling party and the opposition in South Korea have rarely reached an agreement and are preparing to pass the 'Basic Law on Digital Assets' in January next year. The core point of this bill is to design a 'bank-led alliance' model for stablecoins: banks must hold at least 51% of the shares, and tech companies can only participate as minority shareholders.

In simple terms, issuing stablecoins is allowed, but traditional banks must be the major shareholders and have the final say.

Banks benefit, while tech companies get the leftovers. This model effectively hands over the 'minting rights' and core risk control of stablecoins to the traditional financial system, with Web3 companies mainly providing technology and operations. Whether this protects investors or stifles innovation is debatable.

'Safety' outweighs 'innovation'; the mindset of South Korean regulators is clear. After the painful lessons from LUNA, their primary goal is to prevent the next UST and ensure financial stability. Efficiency and new paradigms may have to take a backseat.

As a global regulatory bellwether, South Korea has always been an aggressive market for cryptocurrencies, and its regulatory model is often referenced by other countries. If this 'bank alliance' model is implemented, it might create ripple effects in other countries seeking balance.

The impact on the current landscape may be significant; stablecoins like USDT and USDC, which currently dominate the market and are issued by private companies, might face stricter compliance scrutiny or direct competition in the South Korean market.

In short, South Korea is about to impose 'reins' on its once most fervent crypto market. For those pursuing a decentralized fundamentalism, this is undoubtedly a step backward; but for traditional capital seeking mainstream acceptance and stability, it could be a positive signal. How the market will vote depends on the true nature of next year's bill.
#加密市场观察