The last move of the year... Gold, dollar, and the stock market face a double test ⚖️
Markets have entered a critical week where central banks will announce their interest rate decisions. What will be the decision of the Fed and the TCMB in the last meeting of the year? 📊 Gold 🥇, dollar 💵, silver ✨, and the direction of the stock market 📈 will be determined by decisions to be announced consecutively on Wednesday and Thursday. Here’s the latest situation in the markets...
Global markets have entered the final stretch where central banks will announce their interest rate decisions. Activity is taking place in gold, dollar, silver, and the stock market ahead of the critical week ⏰.
The American Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its last interest rate meeting of the year on Wednesday, December 10. Expectations regarding the Fed have started to crystallize. The fact that Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, is being mentioned as a prominent candidate for the Fed presidency has strengthened discount expectations in the market. ⬇️
According to current pricing, money markets estimate the likelihood of the Fed lowering interest rates in December to be around 85 percent. The Fed had lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to the range of 3.75-4.00 at its meeting on October 29, 2025. 📉
Bitcoin hovered near $91,000 after recovering from a dip toward the mid-$80,000s earlier in the week. The latest catalyst was a surge in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF demand. Funds recorded $54.79M in inflows on December 5, reversing significant prior outflows and signaling improving institutional confidence.
ARK Invest’s ARKB led with $88M in inflows, even as other issuers saw rotation. The return of ETF engagement added support to short-term bullish momentum, helping BTC reclaim key averages. #BinanceHODLerMorpho $MORPHO
Gold rose with expectations of a Fed interest rate cut
Gold rose as investors' expectations increased that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in this week's meeting and the dollar weakened.
The gram of gold is trading at 5,761 TL
Gold prices rose on Monday as investors' expectations increased that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in this week's meeting and the dollar weakened.
Spot gold rose to $4,212.70, a 0.3% increase per ounce.
The dollar continued to decline slightly, remaining close to its lowest level in a month seen on December 4. This made gold, priced in dollars, cheaper for overseas buyers.
KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said, “Core PCE data passed smoothly, allowing the Fed to move forward with interest rate cuts this week. Expectations of a looser monetary policy are pushing gold prices higher.”
Waterer also added, “While the expected interest rate cut this week puts pressure on the dollar, it is also expanding the upward movement range for gold.”
In the U.S., consumer spending showed a moderate increase in September after three consecutive months of rising. This development came after private sector employment data showed the sharpest decline in two and a half years last month.
Dovish statements from Fed officials further strengthened expectations for monetary easing.
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in about an 88% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the Fed meeting on December 9-10. Lower interest rates are generally supportive for instruments like gold, which do not provide yield.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is preparing to abandon its long-standing low interest rate policy. The expectation of an interest rate hike at the policy meeting in December is strengthening new forces, while triggering the risk of 'yen carry withdrawal' for all global risky asset markets, including Bitcoin.
The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) meeting on December 19 may shake a fundamental pillar on which the global financial system has relied for decades.
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Analyzes, Reports, Interest Rate Decisions... What Awaits Bitcoin in the Upcoming Process?
The Fed's interest rate decision on December 10 and BOJ's tightening steps are two significant macro movements for global markets this week. While it is predicted that this macro effect will determine pricing, the central bank's latest report indicates a potential recovery in December.
How does the altcoin season start? The invisible flow of the cycle in crypto
Altcoin markets never accelerate randomly. Historically, every rally starts by producing "early signals" in specific segments. Accurately reading these signals is critical for capturing the first part of the rally that provides the highest return.
For this reason, it is insufficient to read altcoin cycles solely from price charts. Indicators such as liquidity movements, network data, institutional capital flows, and thematic momentum show in advance the order and strength with which the rally will progress. 1) What are the Early Signals in Altcoin Segments?
The altcoin season is not a single upward movement. Liquidity typically spreads across segments by following the order below. The early warnings provided by each segment before the rally are different:
Major L1s (ETH, SOL, AVAX)
The first stop for altcoin movements is often major Layer-1 projects. Early signals:
The rise of BTC dominance stops and turns horizontal
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JPMorgan's striking Bitcoin prediction:🚀 86 percent increase is on the way
🐋 While MSCI's plan to exclude companies with high digital asset ratios is causing concern in the crypto market, JPMorgan strategists indicated that based on their model assuming Bitcoin will move similarly to gold, the price could reach $170,000 within 6-12 months. This expectation indicates an 86% increase from the current level of $91,324.
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