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逐浪币圈，穿越牛熊。链上世界，自由探索。X：@jackyshu777
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12.11日报
1、美联储将于周四公布利率决议，随后基准利率下调25基点至3.50%-3.75%
美联储将于周四 03:00 公布利率决议，市场预计降息 25 个基点至 3.50%-3.75%。FOMC 内部出现分歧，部分票委或反对继续降息。因政府停摆导致 10 月关键数据缺失，SEP 和点阵图预计变动有限。市场关注结束缩表后是否推出“储备管理购债计划”（RMP），美银预测或从 1 月起每月购入约 450 亿美元短期美债，若连同 MBS 再投资规模或达约 600 亿美元。若宣布 RMP，会议焦点或转向资产负债表而非利率路径。
2、贝莱德向Coinbase存入2196枚BTC，价值2.0276亿美元
链上数据显示，贝莱德向 Coinbase 存入 2196 枚 BTC，价值 2.0276 亿美元。
3、特朗普批评美联储降息幅度过小并面试鲍威尔继任者
美国总统特朗普表示，美联储降息幅度本可以加倍。
4、美国政府转出1933枚WETH，价值约654.63万美元
据AiCoin监测，美国政府地址向0x6...94D 转账共计 1933 枚WETH，价值约654.63 万美元 ，价格或下跌。
5、CFTC主席称比特币现可用作抵押品
美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）主席在 CNBC 直播中表示，比特币目前可以用作抵押品。
6、现货黄金短线拉升16美元，现报4205.23美元/盎司
美联储如期降息，现货黄金短线拉升 16 美元，现报 4205.23 美元/盎司。
7、日本金融厅拟将加密资产纳入《金融商品交易法》监管
日本金融厅发布报告，计划将加密资产监管基础从《支付服务法》转移至《金融商品交易法》。新框架要求强化 IEO 披露，项目方需披露身份及代币分配模式，监管机构将加强打击未注册平台并禁止内幕交易。此外，日本政府正考虑将加密交易利润税率统一为 20%，日本金融厅对海外加密 ETF 衍生品许可持谨慎态度。
美联储将于周四 03:00 公布利率决议，市场预计降息 25 个基点至 3.50%-3.75%。FOMC 内部出现分歧，部分票委或反对继续降息。因政府停摆导致 10 月关键数据缺失，SEP 和点阵图预计变动有限。市场关注结束缩表后是否推出“储备管理购债计划”（RMP），美银预测或从 1 月起每月购入约 450 亿美元短期美债，若连同 MBS 再投资规模或达约 600 亿美元。若宣布 RMP，会议焦点或转向资产负债表而非利率路径。
2、贝莱德向Coinbase存入2196枚BTC，价值2.0276亿美元
链上数据显示，贝莱德向 Coinbase 存入 2196 枚 BTC，价值 2.0276 亿美元。
3、特朗普批评美联储降息幅度过小并面试鲍威尔继任者
美国总统特朗普表示，美联储降息幅度本可以加倍。
4、美国政府转出1933枚WETH，价值约654.63万美元
据AiCoin监测，美国政府地址向0x6...94D 转账共计 1933 枚WETH，价值约654.63 万美元 ，价格或下跌。
5、CFTC主席称比特币现可用作抵押品
美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）主席在 CNBC 直播中表示，比特币目前可以用作抵押品。
6、现货黄金短线拉升16美元，现报4205.23美元/盎司
美联储如期降息，现货黄金短线拉升 16 美元，现报 4205.23 美元/盎司。
7、日本金融厅拟将加密资产纳入《金融商品交易法》监管
日本金融厅发布报告，计划将加密资产监管基础从《支付服务法》转移至《金融商品交易法》。新框架要求强化 IEO 披露，项目方需披露身份及代币分配模式，监管机构将加强打击未注册平台并禁止内幕交易。此外，日本政府正考虑将加密交易利润税率统一为 20%，日本金融厅对海外加密 ETF 衍生品许可持谨慎态度。
🌐 Bridgers x MetaMask 🚀
In case you missed, @MetaMask Wallet, both the browser extension and mobile app, now integrates Bridgers API. This collaboration brings powerful cross-chain and routing capabilities directly into one of the most trusted wallets in Web3.
With this upgrade, users can enjoy faster routes, smoother swaps, and more reliable cross-chain transactions, all within MetaMask wallet.🌉⚡
We’re excited for what comes next. Together, we’re shaping a future where Web3 feels seamless, accessible, and truly connected.✨
如果您错过了， @MetaMask Wallet（包括浏览器扩展和移动应用）现已集成 Bridgers API。此次合作将强大的跨链和路由功能直接引入到 Web3 领域最值得信赖的钱包之一。
通过此次升级，用户可以在 MetaMask 钱包内享受更快的路由速度、更流畅的兑换体验以及更可靠的跨链交易。🌉⚡
我们对未来充满期待。我们将携手共创一个无缝衔接、便捷易用、真正互联互通的Web3未来。✨
In case you missed, @MetaMask Wallet, both the browser extension and mobile app, now integrates Bridgers API. This collaboration brings powerful cross-chain and routing capabilities directly into one of the most trusted wallets in Web3.
With this upgrade, users can enjoy faster routes, smoother swaps, and more reliable cross-chain transactions, all within MetaMask wallet.🌉⚡
We’re excited for what comes next. Together, we’re shaping a future where Web3 feels seamless, accessible, and truly connected.✨
如果您错过了， @MetaMask Wallet（包括浏览器扩展和移动应用）现已集成 Bridgers API。此次合作将强大的跨链和路由功能直接引入到 Web3 领域最值得信赖的钱包之一。
通过此次升级，用户可以在 MetaMask 钱包内享受更快的路由速度、更流畅的兑换体验以及更可靠的跨链交易。🌉⚡
我们对未来充满期待。我们将携手共创一个无缝衔接、便捷易用、真正互联互通的Web3未来。✨
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12.9日报
1、特朗普获评2025年最具影响力人物，重塑加密格局
美国总统特朗普被评为 2025 年最具影响力人物，今年对加密货币政治格局的影响最大。特朗普政府从怀疑转向公开支持，将数字资产推向美国经济战略中心。这一转变带来了监管动力、机构信心以及关于加密货币在美国未来角色的讨论。
2、贝莱德向Coinbase转移7830万美元以太坊
贝莱德向 Coinbase Prime 转移了 24,791 枚以太坊，价值约 7830 万美元。
3、德意志银行预测美联储将降息25个基点并释放暂停信号
德意志银行分析师报告称，美联储可能在周三宣布2025年的第三次也是最后一次25个基点降息，预计该利率决定不会获得一致通过。分析师预计，美联储主席鲍威尔将强调2026年初进一步降息的门槛很高，并释放短期暂停降息的信号。
4、比特币ETF吸金3.52亿美元，XRP基金热度不减
比特币 ETF 录得 3.52 亿美元资金流入延续反弹势头，同时 XRP 基金保持热度。
5、巴基斯坦部长建议将比特币纳入国家储备
巴基斯坦部长表示，巴基斯坦应该购买比特币作为国家储备。
6、阿联酋官员称比特币为金融未来支柱，正购入储备
阿联酋政府官员表示，比特币是金融未来的关键支柱，该国正在购买比特币作为储备资产。
7、贝莱德提交质押以太坊信托ETF招股书，扩展加密产品
贝莱德已向美国 SEC 递交 iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF 的正式招股书（Form S-1），这将成为其第四只加密相关 ETF 产品。贝莱德此前已申请现货比特币、现货以太坊及“比特币收益型” ETF。
美国总统特朗普被评为 2025 年最具影响力人物，今年对加密货币政治格局的影响最大。特朗普政府从怀疑转向公开支持，将数字资产推向美国经济战略中心。这一转变带来了监管动力、机构信心以及关于加密货币在美国未来角色的讨论。
2、贝莱德向Coinbase转移7830万美元以太坊
贝莱德向 Coinbase Prime 转移了 24,791 枚以太坊，价值约 7830 万美元。
3、德意志银行预测美联储将降息25个基点并释放暂停信号
德意志银行分析师报告称，美联储可能在周三宣布2025年的第三次也是最后一次25个基点降息，预计该利率决定不会获得一致通过。分析师预计，美联储主席鲍威尔将强调2026年初进一步降息的门槛很高，并释放短期暂停降息的信号。
4、比特币ETF吸金3.52亿美元，XRP基金热度不减
比特币 ETF 录得 3.52 亿美元资金流入延续反弹势头，同时 XRP 基金保持热度。
5、巴基斯坦部长建议将比特币纳入国家储备
巴基斯坦部长表示，巴基斯坦应该购买比特币作为国家储备。
6、阿联酋官员称比特币为金融未来支柱，正购入储备
阿联酋政府官员表示，比特币是金融未来的关键支柱，该国正在购买比特币作为储备资产。
7、贝莱德提交质押以太坊信托ETF招股书，扩展加密产品
贝莱德已向美国 SEC 递交 iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF 的正式招股书（Form S-1），这将成为其第四只加密相关 ETF 产品。贝莱德此前已申请现货比特币、现货以太坊及“比特币收益型” ETF。
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ETH行情剧烈波动：事件回顾与深度展望（转）
🔥 事件回顾
昨晚22:04左右，市场初现震荡，ETH/USDT在部分平台上价格已跌至约$2998.40，引起市场关注。紧接着，在22:15左右，ETH价格从约$3028急速下探至$2942，10分钟内跌幅高达2.83%，引发高杠杆仓位的连锁爆仓。随后，在22:15至22:33这一阶段，价格进一步回落，从约$2951跌至$2925，恐慌情绪迅速蔓延。链上数据显示，不少账户因ETH跌至约$2900而触及止损被强制平仓，其中有账户在亏损73.8万美元后，尝试快速“重仓补仓”。“麻吉大哥”等交易者的持仓也在大幅波动中遭遇清仓后迅速重启多单操作，折射出当前市场在剧烈波动中既有恐慌抛售也存尝试割肉后迅速拉回仓位的行为。目前最新观察价格回落至约$2942.5，市场短期情绪虽稍见平复，但整体波动依然剧烈。
⏰ 时间轴
22:04 – 市场初步震荡，ETH价格约$2998.40，引发关注。22:15 – ETH价格瞬间从约$3028急跌至$2942（跌幅2.83%），助推高杠杆仓位触发止损连环爆仓。22:15至22:33 – 在连锁影响下，价格从约$2951进一步下滑至$2925。22:36 – 链上数据显示，多笔高杠杆ETH多单因跌至约$2900而被强平，部分账户亏损数十万美元后迅速重开仓位。22:40 – “麻吉大哥”持仓遭全部清仓后，迅速再度开多，现持仓约2200枚ETH。22:54 – 调整后最新价格观测值约为$2942.5，短期内波动仍然明显。
🔍 原因解析
此次ETH价格剧烈波动主要有两个方面的原因：
连锁爆仓效应
高杠杆多单在价格触及关键支撑位后迅速爆仓，部分交易者在达到止损条件时被迫平仓，进而引发市场恐慌性抛售。随着大量账户陆续被清仓，再加上部分交易者急于补仓操作，市场的卖压进一步加剧，形成了明显的连锁效应。宏观政策与市场情绪双重冲击
除了技术面因素外，最近多条消息显示全球多国监管政策和美联储的利率预期调整增加了市场的不确定性。宏观政策变动、监管收紧、以及投资者对风险的避险情绪，均使得本就高杠杆操作集中的市场承受巨大波动压力。外部经济环境的不确定性与技术层面的连锁爆仓共同推动了价格快速下行。
📈 技术分析
基于币安USDT永续合约45分钟K线数据，当前ETH技术面表现如下：
超卖信号明显：RSI跌破30，进入超卖区域；J值显示极端低位，暗示短期内存在反弹可能。布林带指标：价格突破布林带下轨且沿下轨行走，%B指标跌破0.0，居于技术支撑区间外，显示超卖状态。量能支撑分析：近期交易量暴增达1473.47%，且交易量与价格呈负相关，意味着恐慌性抛售力度极强。OBV指标跌破前期低点，卖方力量明显增强。均线排列：价格位于MA5、MA10、MA20、MA50以及EMA5/10/20/50/120均线之下，呈现出空头排列状态，K线形态上频现黑三兵，进一步确认了当前的下跌趋势。
总体来看，技术指标显示出强烈的短期下行压力，但同时超卖指标也为潜在反弹提供了条件。交易者需密切关注关键支撑位及均线附近能否形成有效买盘。
🌟 后市展望
在经历如此剧烈的波动和爆仓连锁后，市场情绪当前仍显脆弱。短期内，投资者需保持谨慎：
短线操作建议：由于RSI和其他超卖指标显示出潜在反弹信号，逢低买入或许存在等待回调止跌后的机会，但必须严格控制仓位和风险，防范再次爆仓的可能性。中长期持仓角度：ETH作为生态系统核心资产，其基本面依然具备较强支撑。但短期政策不确定性和市场情绪波动均可能带来进一步的震荡。建议关注后续宏观政策动向以及市场资金流向变化。风险防控：在高杠杆环境频现爆仓的背景下，合理调整杠杆比例、提前设置止损以及分散风险，仍是当前应对市场剧烈波动的重要策略。
总体而言，虽然现阶段市场恐慌情绪浓厚且技术面处于超卖状态，但随着市场逐步消化震荡性调整，具备承接底部反弹的潜力。投资者应结合自身风险承受能力和市场动态，做好资金管理，耐心等待更加明确的转折信号。
昨晚22:04左右，市场初现震荡，ETH/USDT在部分平台上价格已跌至约$2998.40，引起市场关注。紧接着，在22:15左右，ETH价格从约$3028急速下探至$2942，10分钟内跌幅高达2.83%，引发高杠杆仓位的连锁爆仓。随后，在22:15至22:33这一阶段，价格进一步回落，从约$2951跌至$2925，恐慌情绪迅速蔓延。链上数据显示，不少账户因ETH跌至约$2900而触及止损被强制平仓，其中有账户在亏损73.8万美元后，尝试快速“重仓补仓”。“麻吉大哥”等交易者的持仓也在大幅波动中遭遇清仓后迅速重启多单操作，折射出当前市场在剧烈波动中既有恐慌抛售也存尝试割肉后迅速拉回仓位的行为。目前最新观察价格回落至约$2942.5，市场短期情绪虽稍见平复，但整体波动依然剧烈。
⏰ 时间轴
22:04 – 市场初步震荡，ETH价格约$2998.40，引发关注。22:15 – ETH价格瞬间从约$3028急跌至$2942（跌幅2.83%），助推高杠杆仓位触发止损连环爆仓。22:15至22:33 – 在连锁影响下，价格从约$2951进一步下滑至$2925。22:36 – 链上数据显示，多笔高杠杆ETH多单因跌至约$2900而被强平，部分账户亏损数十万美元后迅速重开仓位。22:40 – “麻吉大哥”持仓遭全部清仓后，迅速再度开多，现持仓约2200枚ETH。22:54 – 调整后最新价格观测值约为$2942.5，短期内波动仍然明显。
🔍 原因解析
此次ETH价格剧烈波动主要有两个方面的原因：
连锁爆仓效应
高杠杆多单在价格触及关键支撑位后迅速爆仓，部分交易者在达到止损条件时被迫平仓，进而引发市场恐慌性抛售。随着大量账户陆续被清仓，再加上部分交易者急于补仓操作，市场的卖压进一步加剧，形成了明显的连锁效应。宏观政策与市场情绪双重冲击
除了技术面因素外，最近多条消息显示全球多国监管政策和美联储的利率预期调整增加了市场的不确定性。宏观政策变动、监管收紧、以及投资者对风险的避险情绪，均使得本就高杠杆操作集中的市场承受巨大波动压力。外部经济环境的不确定性与技术层面的连锁爆仓共同推动了价格快速下行。
📈 技术分析
基于币安USDT永续合约45分钟K线数据，当前ETH技术面表现如下：
超卖信号明显：RSI跌破30，进入超卖区域；J值显示极端低位，暗示短期内存在反弹可能。布林带指标：价格突破布林带下轨且沿下轨行走，%B指标跌破0.0，居于技术支撑区间外，显示超卖状态。量能支撑分析：近期交易量暴增达1473.47%，且交易量与价格呈负相关，意味着恐慌性抛售力度极强。OBV指标跌破前期低点，卖方力量明显增强。均线排列：价格位于MA5、MA10、MA20、MA50以及EMA5/10/20/50/120均线之下，呈现出空头排列状态，K线形态上频现黑三兵，进一步确认了当前的下跌趋势。
总体来看，技术指标显示出强烈的短期下行压力，但同时超卖指标也为潜在反弹提供了条件。交易者需密切关注关键支撑位及均线附近能否形成有效买盘。
🌟 后市展望
在经历如此剧烈的波动和爆仓连锁后，市场情绪当前仍显脆弱。短期内，投资者需保持谨慎：
短线操作建议：由于RSI和其他超卖指标显示出潜在反弹信号，逢低买入或许存在等待回调止跌后的机会，但必须严格控制仓位和风险，防范再次爆仓的可能性。中长期持仓角度：ETH作为生态系统核心资产，其基本面依然具备较强支撑。但短期政策不确定性和市场情绪波动均可能带来进一步的震荡。建议关注后续宏观政策动向以及市场资金流向变化。风险防控：在高杠杆环境频现爆仓的背景下，合理调整杠杆比例、提前设置止损以及分散风险，仍是当前应对市场剧烈波动的重要策略。
总体而言，虽然现阶段市场恐慌情绪浓厚且技术面处于超卖状态，但随着市场逐步消化震荡性调整，具备承接底部反弹的潜力。投资者应结合自身风险承受能力和市场动态，做好资金管理，耐心等待更加明确的转折信号。
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12.8日报
1、赵长鹏建议国家领导人尽早购买比特币
币安创始人赵长鹏表示，他正在告诉领导人，如果现在不购买比特币，将来可能需要以每枚 5000 万美元的价格购买。
2、比特币若达10万美元将清算91亿空头
若比特币价格回升至10万美元，将导致约91亿美元的空头头寸被清算。
3、黄金或迎历史性一年，美联储或降息
美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，除非出现“黑天鹅”式干扰，美国将迎来经济史上的黄金一年。他称，如果明年第一和第二季度增长率仅为3%，将感到失望，并认为增长率可轻松再提高一个百分点。哈塞特还预计美联储决策者将在下周会议上降低利率，并表示当前是美联储谨慎降息的好时机。
4、马斯克抨击欧盟罚款1.2亿欧元并呼吁废除
马斯克针对欧盟对社交媒体平台 X 处以1.2亿欧元罚款表示强烈不满，并在 X 上发文称欧盟的决定荒谬，甚至对其个人也处以罚款。他表示将对相关欧盟高级官员作出回应，并呼吁废除欧盟。美国政府对此谴责欧盟的罚款行为，认为其特别针对美国公司。美国总统特朗普警告，若欧盟继续惩罚美国科技企业，美国将对欧盟加征关税。
5、美国SEC将举办加密货币与隐私圆桌会议
美国证券交易委员会（SEC）将于12月15日举办关于加密货币、金融监控和隐私的圆桌会议，加密隐私项目Zcash创始人Zooko Wilcox等人将参与。分析指出，SEC可能在会议中评估其规则制定过程中对加密隐私项目的监管权重，若零知识证明被认为符合合规要求，或将纳入相关规则；若会议分裂为“隐私权利”与“隐私助长犯罪”两派，可能继续沿用以监控为主的框架，并引发隐私倡导者的法律诉讼。
6、铁杆空头巨鲸20倍杠杆BTC空单浮盈超2000万
Hyperbot数据显示，比特币价格短时下跌后，连续四次做空BTC的巨鲸地址（0x5D2...9bb7）20倍杠杆BTC空单现浮盈超2000万美元，目前仓位约860枚BTC，清算价格为101746美元。
7、铸帝控股与香港理工成立稳定币研发中心
港股上市公司铸帝控股斥资170万港元，与香港理工大学成立稳定币研发中心。该中心将专注于监管合规的稳定币及真实世界资产（RWA）代币化研发，目标包括制定与香港《稳定币条例草案》和《虚拟资产政策宣言 2.0》一致的RWA框架，并推动人工智能驱动的代币化及实时资产估值模型创新。
8、法国银行BPCE推出应用内加密交易服务
法国银行 BPCE 将在其应用程序中为客户推出加密货币交易功能。
币安创始人赵长鹏表示，他正在告诉领导人，如果现在不购买比特币，将来可能需要以每枚 5000 万美元的价格购买。
2、比特币若达10万美元将清算91亿空头
若比特币价格回升至10万美元，将导致约91亿美元的空头头寸被清算。
3、黄金或迎历史性一年，美联储或降息
美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，除非出现“黑天鹅”式干扰，美国将迎来经济史上的黄金一年。他称，如果明年第一和第二季度增长率仅为3%，将感到失望，并认为增长率可轻松再提高一个百分点。哈塞特还预计美联储决策者将在下周会议上降低利率，并表示当前是美联储谨慎降息的好时机。
4、马斯克抨击欧盟罚款1.2亿欧元并呼吁废除
马斯克针对欧盟对社交媒体平台 X 处以1.2亿欧元罚款表示强烈不满，并在 X 上发文称欧盟的决定荒谬，甚至对其个人也处以罚款。他表示将对相关欧盟高级官员作出回应，并呼吁废除欧盟。美国政府对此谴责欧盟的罚款行为，认为其特别针对美国公司。美国总统特朗普警告，若欧盟继续惩罚美国科技企业，美国将对欧盟加征关税。
5、美国SEC将举办加密货币与隐私圆桌会议
美国证券交易委员会（SEC）将于12月15日举办关于加密货币、金融监控和隐私的圆桌会议，加密隐私项目Zcash创始人Zooko Wilcox等人将参与。分析指出，SEC可能在会议中评估其规则制定过程中对加密隐私项目的监管权重，若零知识证明被认为符合合规要求，或将纳入相关规则；若会议分裂为“隐私权利”与“隐私助长犯罪”两派，可能继续沿用以监控为主的框架，并引发隐私倡导者的法律诉讼。
6、铁杆空头巨鲸20倍杠杆BTC空单浮盈超2000万
Hyperbot数据显示，比特币价格短时下跌后，连续四次做空BTC的巨鲸地址（0x5D2...9bb7）20倍杠杆BTC空单现浮盈超2000万美元，目前仓位约860枚BTC，清算价格为101746美元。
7、铸帝控股与香港理工成立稳定币研发中心
港股上市公司铸帝控股斥资170万港元，与香港理工大学成立稳定币研发中心。该中心将专注于监管合规的稳定币及真实世界资产（RWA）代币化研发，目标包括制定与香港《稳定币条例草案》和《虚拟资产政策宣言 2.0》一致的RWA框架，并推动人工智能驱动的代币化及实时资产估值模型创新。
8、法国银行BPCE推出应用内加密交易服务
法国银行 BPCE 将在其应用程序中为客户推出加密货币交易功能。
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1. 如果你的资金不大，比如在 10 万以内，每年抓住一次主升浪行情就够了，不要总是满仓操作。
2. 赚不到你认知之外的钱。先用模拟盘练练胆识和心态，模拟盘可以多次失败，但实盘操作一次失败可能就让你全军覆没，甚至退出市场。
3. 养成复盘的习惯，看看自选的币种是否符合你的预期，定期评估自己持有的资产。
4. 碰到重大利好，如果当天没出货，第二天高开一定要卖出，兑现的利好通常伴随着风险。
5. 好项目可以长期持有，但一定要在高点卖出，$切勿贪心。
6. 遇到重大节日或事件，提前一周减仓或空仓，等到节前最后两天再进场，节后往往有大红包#行情。
7. 如果日线图上出现大阴线，除非是在缩量底部，否则第二天果断离场。
8. 底部放量的币种要注意，可能是转折点到来了。
9. 中长线操作要留足现金，拉高出货，杀跌买回，滚动操作是上策。
10. 短线交易主要看成交量和图形，活跃波动大的做，不活跃的别碰。
11. 下跌缓慢时，反弹也会很慢；下跌加速时，反弹也通常很快。
12. 仔细对比大盘和个币走势，有主力的币种走势往往和大盘不一样，走势一致的没有主力。
13. 长期横盘的币突然放量拉升，注意，这可能是机会。
14. 买错币要承认错误，及时止损才是生存之道。
15. 技术和方法有很多，精通几种就够了，不要贪多。
16. 做短线时要看 15 分钟 K 线图，结合 KDJ 指标能找到不错的买卖点。
17. 区分洗盘和出货关键看成交量，洗盘一般缩量，放量通常是出货。
18. 做长线时看 60 日、120 日、250 日均线，三线多头排列且有业绩支撑的项目相对稳妥。
19. 手中币不冲高不卖，不跳水不买，横盘不操作。
20. 涨不贪，跌不慌，做到这点，交易其实会轻松许多。
2. 赚不到你认知之外的钱。先用模拟盘练练胆识和心态，模拟盘可以多次失败，但实盘操作一次失败可能就让你全军覆没，甚至退出市场。
3. 养成复盘的习惯，看看自选的币种是否符合你的预期，定期评估自己持有的资产。
4. 碰到重大利好，如果当天没出货，第二天高开一定要卖出，兑现的利好通常伴随着风险。
5. 好项目可以长期持有，但一定要在高点卖出，$切勿贪心。
6. 遇到重大节日或事件，提前一周减仓或空仓，等到节前最后两天再进场，节后往往有大红包#行情。
7. 如果日线图上出现大阴线，除非是在缩量底部，否则第二天果断离场。
8. 底部放量的币种要注意，可能是转折点到来了。
9. 中长线操作要留足现金，拉高出货，杀跌买回，滚动操作是上策。
10. 短线交易主要看成交量和图形，活跃波动大的做，不活跃的别碰。
11. 下跌缓慢时，反弹也会很慢；下跌加速时，反弹也通常很快。
12. 仔细对比大盘和个币走势，有主力的币种走势往往和大盘不一样，走势一致的没有主力。
13. 长期横盘的币突然放量拉升，注意，这可能是机会。
14. 买错币要承认错误，及时止损才是生存之道。
15. 技术和方法有很多，精通几种就够了，不要贪多。
16. 做短线时要看 15 分钟 K 线图，结合 KDJ 指标能找到不错的买卖点。
17. 区分洗盘和出货关键看成交量，洗盘一般缩量，放量通常是出货。
18. 做长线时看 60 日、120 日、250 日均线，三线多头排列且有业绩支撑的项目相对稳妥。
19. 手中币不冲高不卖，不跳水不买，横盘不操作。
20. 涨不贪，跌不慌，做到这点，交易其实会轻松许多。
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December 4 Report
1. BlackRock deposited 44,140 ETH into Coinbase, worth $135.36 million
According to monitoring by Lookonchain, BlackRock deposited 44,140 ETH into Coinbase Prime, worth $135.36 million.
2. Wall Street is attempting to prevent Trump from appointing Hassett as Chairman of the Federal Reserve
On December 4th, Fox Business reporter Charles Gasparino disclosed that Wall Street and the American business community are working to dissuade Trump from appointing Kevin Hassett as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Reasons for opposition include Hassett's political background (Director of the National Economic Council) and a lack of credibility, with concerns that this appointment could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, leading to rising long-term interest rates and internal chaos. If Hassett lowers short-term interest rates through a split vote to address inflationary pressures, it may be seen as political interference, triggering inflation and raising mortgage and consumer rates, thereby affecting economic performance. Other potential candidates include Kevin Warsh and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.
According to monitoring by Lookonchain, BlackRock deposited 44,140 ETH into Coinbase Prime, worth $135.36 million.
2. Wall Street is attempting to prevent Trump from appointing Hassett as Chairman of the Federal Reserve
On December 4th, Fox Business reporter Charles Gasparino disclosed that Wall Street and the American business community are working to dissuade Trump from appointing Kevin Hassett as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Reasons for opposition include Hassett's political background (Director of the National Economic Council) and a lack of credibility, with concerns that this appointment could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, leading to rising long-term interest rates and internal chaos. If Hassett lowers short-term interest rates through a split vote to address inflationary pressures, it may be seen as political interference, triggering inflation and raising mortgage and consumer rates, thereby affecting economic performance. Other potential candidates include Kevin Warsh and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.
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December 3 Report
1. Zhao Changpeng predicts more historical highs will appear.
Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated that he predicts 'more historical highs will appear soon.'
2. The UK officially recognizes cryptocurrencies as legal property.
The UK has officially recognized Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as legal property, confirming their legal status.
3. Gold prices fell below $4200/oz, focusing on U.S. economic data.
On December 2, gold prices continued to fall, and silver retreated from the record highs set yesterday. Credit Suisse analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa stated that some traders chose to take profits after gold prices rebounded from $4000 to $4250. Data shows that U.S. manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November. Investors are focused on the November ADP employment report and the September PCE index for clues about potential interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting President Trump's announcement of the next Federal Reserve chair, with White House National Economic Council Director Hassett as the leading candidate. De Casa expects gold prices to consolidate between $4000 and $4400 in the coming weeks and stated that a Fed rate cut could push gold prices higher.
Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated that he predicts 'more historical highs will appear soon.'
2. The UK officially recognizes cryptocurrencies as legal property.
The UK has officially recognized Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as legal property, confirming their legal status.
3. Gold prices fell below $4200/oz, focusing on U.S. economic data.
On December 2, gold prices continued to fall, and silver retreated from the record highs set yesterday. Credit Suisse analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa stated that some traders chose to take profits after gold prices rebounded from $4000 to $4250. Data shows that U.S. manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November. Investors are focused on the November ADP employment report and the September PCE index for clues about potential interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting President Trump's announcement of the next Federal Reserve chair, with White House National Economic Council Director Hassett as the leading candidate. De Casa expects gold prices to consolidate between $4000 and $4400 in the coming weeks and stated that a Fed rate cut could push gold prices higher.
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Why is the world embracing stablecoins while the domestic scene is going in reverse? (Transferred from X)
The characterization of the 28th has shattered all the illusions about stablecoins in the industry over the past few years.
On the surface, it is a regulatory policy, but in reality, it is a statement about monetary power.
The United States has turned stablecoins into an extension of digital dollars with the (GENIUS Act). Domestically, this characterization has classified stablecoins as illegal.
Both sides are very clear about what they are doing.
01 | 'Stablecoins are a form of virtual currency.'
This is not the first time virtual currency has been mentioned, but it is the first time the authorities have explicitly equated stablecoins with Bitcoin and Ethereum.
In the past few years, many projects have bet on the assumption that 'stablecoins are not considered virtual currency.' They believe that as long as there are dollar reserves and no volatility, they can tell a story to regulators.
On the surface, it is a regulatory policy, but in reality, it is a statement about monetary power.
The United States has turned stablecoins into an extension of digital dollars with the (GENIUS Act). Domestically, this characterization has classified stablecoins as illegal.
Both sides are very clear about what they are doing.
01 | 'Stablecoins are a form of virtual currency.'
This is not the first time virtual currency has been mentioned, but it is the first time the authorities have explicitly equated stablecoins with Bitcoin and Ethereum.
In the past few years, many projects have bet on the assumption that 'stablecoins are not considered virtual currency.' They believe that as long as there are dollar reserves and no volatility, they can tell a story to regulators.
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12.1 Daily Report
1. The People's Bank of China has defined stablecoins for the first time, emphasizing risks and combating illegal activities. Thirteen departments subsequently united to combat illegal activities related to virtual currencies and further emphasized the risks of stablecoins.
The People's Bank of China recently held a meeting to coordinate actions against the speculation in virtual currency trading, clarifying for the first time that stablecoins are a form of virtual currency. It pointed out that stablecoins cannot effectively meet customer identification and anti-money laundering requirements, posing risks of being used for money laundering, fundraising fraud, and illegal cross-border fund transfers, and emphasized the continued crackdown on illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies. Industry insiders believe that this meeting will not affect the layout of stablecoins in Hong Kong, but speculation on stablecoins in mainland China will be severely cracked down, and the space for domestic entities to lay out stablecoins in Hong Kong will be more limited to practical application scenarios such as cross-border payments and supply chain finance.
The People's Bank of China recently held a meeting to coordinate actions against the speculation in virtual currency trading, clarifying for the first time that stablecoins are a form of virtual currency. It pointed out that stablecoins cannot effectively meet customer identification and anti-money laundering requirements, posing risks of being used for money laundering, fundraising fraud, and illegal cross-border fund transfers, and emphasized the continued crackdown on illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies. Industry insiders believe that this meeting will not affect the layout of stablecoins in Hong Kong, but speculation on stablecoins in mainland China will be severely cracked down, and the space for domestic entities to lay out stablecoins in Hong Kong will be more limited to practical application scenarios such as cross-border payments and supply chain finance.
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November 28 Report
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 85.1%.
On November 27, according to CME 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 85.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 14.9%.
2. Eric Trump claims Bitcoin can transfer 500 million USD without fees.
Eric Trump stated that Bitcoin allows for transfers of 500 million USD on Sunday nights without transaction fees, which he believes intimidates large institutions.
3. Gold prices broke through 2800 USD/ounce, reaching a historic high as risk aversion sentiment rises.
In response to Tether purchasing more gold than several central banks in the last quarter, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino retweeted a post from Sam Callahan, Strategic and Research Director at Bitcoin Treasury Company OranjeBTC, on the X platform, clarifying the market's misunderstanding that Tether prefers gold over Bitcoin, stating, "Tether still loves Bitcoin." It is reported that Tether currently holds about 87,475 BTC and has used about 15% of its profits since 2023 to increase its Bitcoin holdings. The purchase of gold indicates that Tether has developed into a global corporate group, not just a stablecoin issuer.
On November 27, according to CME 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 85.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 14.9%.
2. Eric Trump claims Bitcoin can transfer 500 million USD without fees.
Eric Trump stated that Bitcoin allows for transfers of 500 million USD on Sunday nights without transaction fees, which he believes intimidates large institutions.
3. Gold prices broke through 2800 USD/ounce, reaching a historic high as risk aversion sentiment rises.
In response to Tether purchasing more gold than several central banks in the last quarter, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino retweeted a post from Sam Callahan, Strategic and Research Director at Bitcoin Treasury Company OranjeBTC, on the X platform, clarifying the market's misunderstanding that Tether prefers gold over Bitcoin, stating, "Tether still loves Bitcoin." It is reported that Tether currently holds about 87,475 BTC and has used about 15% of its profits since 2023 to increase its Bitcoin holdings. The purchase of gold indicates that Tether has developed into a global corporate group, not just a stablecoin issuer.
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NVIDIA vs Bitcoin vs Gold
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11.27 Report
1. Trump: I only care about whether the U.S. can be first in the crypto space.
U.S. President Trump stated that his only concern is whether the U.S. can rank first in the cryptocurrency space.
2. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased, with disagreement on the Fed's rate cut in December.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell last week, reaching the lowest level since mid-April, remaining at a relatively low level. However, data shows that it is becoming more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. Federal Reserve officials have lowered interest rates in the last two policy meetings to support the slowing labor market, but there is disagreement on whether to cut rates again at the last meeting in December, as they seek to balance a weak labor market with high inflation.
U.S. President Trump stated that his only concern is whether the U.S. can rank first in the cryptocurrency space.
2. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased, with disagreement on the Fed's rate cut in December.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell last week, reaching the lowest level since mid-April, remaining at a relatively low level. However, data shows that it is becoming more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. Federal Reserve officials have lowered interest rates in the last two policy meetings to support the slowing labor market, but there is disagreement on whether to cut rates again at the last meeting in December, as they seek to balance a weak labor market with high inflation.
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11.24 Report
1. The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 BTC has increased to 90, setting a new high in 5 months.
The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 BTC has increased to 90, reaching a new high in 5 months.
2. The probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 69.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50bp cut is 22.3%
CME 'Federal Reserve Watch' data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 69.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 30.6%. By January next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 56.9%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 20.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 22.3%.
3. The Linea mainnet has bridged over 1.22 million ETH, with interactive addresses reaching 420,000.
The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 BTC has increased to 90, reaching a new high in 5 months.
2. The probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 69.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50bp cut is 22.3%
CME 'Federal Reserve Watch' data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 69.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 30.6%. By January next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 56.9%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 20.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 22.3%.
3. The Linea mainnet has bridged over 1.22 million ETH, with interactive addresses reaching 420,000.
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11.20 Report:
1. BlackRock reduced its holdings by 12,000 BTC and 172,000 ETH
According to Lookonchain monitoring, BlackRock has reduced its holdings by 12,097 BTC (approximately $1.11 billion) and 172,049 ETH (approximately $533 million) in the past 3 days.
2. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes may reveal December rate cut stance
Federal Reserve officials are concerned about persistent inflation and are cautious about further rate cuts, as U.S. Treasury yields remain within a narrow range while traders await new market catalysts. Michael Lorizio, head of U.S. rates and mortgage trading at Manulife Investment Management, stated that the lack of top-tier economic data makes it difficult to assess the current state of the U.S. economy. The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes may reveal policymakers' stance on a December rate cut and help shape market expectations.
3. Spot gold breaks $4,120 per ounce, daily increase of 1.3%
4. Polymarket: Probability of 2 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 rises to 65%
Polymarket data shows that the probability of "the Federal Reserve cutting rates 2 times in 2025" has risen to 65%, with a trading volume of $24.38 million for the related prediction event.
5. Trump says stock market growth is boosting the U.S. economy
U.S. President Trump stated that stock market growth is boosting the U.S. economy.
6. Suspected Bitmine address increases holdings by over 24,800 ETH, valued at $72.52 million
On November 20, according to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet address possibly related to Bitmine, 0x748d, received 24,827 ETH from BitGo, valued at approximately $72.52 million.
7. Czech central bank will not sell Bitcoin for the next three years, first central bank to buy BTC
The governor of the Czech central bank confirmed that there are no plans to sell its holdings of Bitcoin for at least the next three years, making the Czech central bank the first central bank to purchase Bitcoin.
8. Era Lend suffers $3.4 million loss from re-entrancy attack
Era Lend, based on the zkSync Layer 2 network, suffered a re-entrancy attack, resulting in a loss of $3.4 million. The hacker exploited a read-only re-entrancy vulnerability to steal funds through repeated calls in the transaction.
1. BlackRock reduced its holdings by 12,000 BTC and 172,000 ETH
According to Lookonchain monitoring, BlackRock has reduced its holdings by 12,097 BTC (approximately $1.11 billion) and 172,049 ETH (approximately $533 million) in the past 3 days.
2. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes may reveal December rate cut stance
Federal Reserve officials are concerned about persistent inflation and are cautious about further rate cuts, as U.S. Treasury yields remain within a narrow range while traders await new market catalysts. Michael Lorizio, head of U.S. rates and mortgage trading at Manulife Investment Management, stated that the lack of top-tier economic data makes it difficult to assess the current state of the U.S. economy. The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes may reveal policymakers' stance on a December rate cut and help shape market expectations.
3. Spot gold breaks $4,120 per ounce, daily increase of 1.3%
4. Polymarket: Probability of 2 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 rises to 65%
Polymarket data shows that the probability of "the Federal Reserve cutting rates 2 times in 2025" has risen to 65%, with a trading volume of $24.38 million for the related prediction event.
5. Trump says stock market growth is boosting the U.S. economy
U.S. President Trump stated that stock market growth is boosting the U.S. economy.
6. Suspected Bitmine address increases holdings by over 24,800 ETH, valued at $72.52 million
On November 20, according to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet address possibly related to Bitmine, 0x748d, received 24,827 ETH from BitGo, valued at approximately $72.52 million.
7. Czech central bank will not sell Bitcoin for the next three years, first central bank to buy BTC
The governor of the Czech central bank confirmed that there are no plans to sell its holdings of Bitcoin for at least the next three years, making the Czech central bank the first central bank to purchase Bitcoin.
8. Era Lend suffers $3.4 million loss from re-entrancy attack
Era Lend, based on the zkSync Layer 2 network, suffered a re-entrancy attack, resulting in a loss of $3.4 million. The hacker exploited a read-only re-entrancy vulnerability to steal funds through repeated calls in the transaction.
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11.19 Report
1. Federal Reserve's Barkin states that a rate cut in December is not a certainty
Federal Reserve's Barkin expressed agreement with Powell's view that a rate cut in December is not a certainty.
2. Trump hopes Powell resigns and states that the new chairman candidate has been determined
U.S. President Trump stated that he hopes Powell resigns now and mentioned that he knows the candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman.
3. International spot gold rebounds to 4000 USD/ounce, paying attention to the impact of non-farm data
The market is focused on the impact of this week's non-farm data, as international spot gold quickly rebounded from the 4000 mark, and the dollar's upward momentum being hindered is considered one of the reasons.
Federal Reserve's Barkin expressed agreement with Powell's view that a rate cut in December is not a certainty.
2. Trump hopes Powell resigns and states that the new chairman candidate has been determined
U.S. President Trump stated that he hopes Powell resigns now and mentioned that he knows the candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman.
3. International spot gold rebounds to 4000 USD/ounce, paying attention to the impact of non-farm data
The market is focused on the impact of this week's non-farm data, as international spot gold quickly rebounded from the 4000 mark, and the dollar's upward momentum being hindered is considered one of the reasons.
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11.17 Report
1. Tom Lee: BTC has increased 100 times, ETH may welcome a super cycle
Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine's Board, stated that Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset. When he first recommended Bitcoin to Fundstrat clients in 2017, the price was around $1,000, with an allocation suggestion of 1%-2%. Over the past 8.5 years, Bitcoin has experienced 6 declines of over 50% and 3 declines of over 75%. By 2025, Bitcoin's price has risen 100 times compared to the initial recommendation. Tom Lee believes that to profit from this super cycle, one must hold on, and he indicated that Ethereum may be entering a similar super cycle.
Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine's Board, stated that Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset. When he first recommended Bitcoin to Fundstrat clients in 2017, the price was around $1,000, with an allocation suggestion of 1%-2%. Over the past 8.5 years, Bitcoin has experienced 6 declines of over 50% and 3 declines of over 75%. By 2025, Bitcoin's price has risen 100 times compared to the initial recommendation. Tom Lee believes that to profit from this super cycle, one must hold on, and he indicated that Ethereum may be entering a similar super cycle.
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Bear Market Begins! This Week's BTC ETH Prediction Analysis
Now let's review that when Bitcoin was at 120,000, it was already showing signs. The increase of 25 years has returned to zero, indicating that the Bitcoin bull market has ended. Friends familiar with the crypto circle know that each halving will lead to a wave of bull market, and the end of a bull market is usually followed by a sharp decline. Therefore, once Bitcoin breaks below 90,000, we need to pay attention, and further declines may expand to around 75,000. Currently, although the price is much lower compared to previous levels, it is still not the time to buy the dip and expect a rise in coin prices; the short to medium-term trend still appears weak.
From a technical perspective, the current trend shows that the daily level indicates a continuous decline in price, forming a series of bearish candles, presenting an overall weak pattern. At the hourly level, the price has retreated from a high level and is consolidating; the current candlestick is in a small fluctuation range, with no obvious reversal signal. The MACD indicator on the hourly chart shows that both DIF and DEA are negative and gradually declining, and the MACD histogram's green bars are expanding, indicating that bearish forces are dominant. The RSI on the hourly chart is at 32, close to the oversold area, but has not yet entered an extreme oversold state, indicating a short-term technical rebound demand. The EMA on the hourly chart shows a bearish arrangement for the 7, 30, and 120 moving averages, with the price operating below EMA7, indicating a downward trend. The EMA at the daily level also shows a bearish arrangement, further confirming the overall weakness, and this week's operations will continue to focus on shorting rebounds.
From a technical perspective, the current trend shows that the daily level indicates a continuous decline in price, forming a series of bearish candles, presenting an overall weak pattern. At the hourly level, the price has retreated from a high level and is consolidating; the current candlestick is in a small fluctuation range, with no obvious reversal signal. The MACD indicator on the hourly chart shows that both DIF and DEA are negative and gradually declining, and the MACD histogram's green bars are expanding, indicating that bearish forces are dominant. The RSI on the hourly chart is at 32, close to the oversold area, but has not yet entered an extreme oversold state, indicating a short-term technical rebound demand. The EMA on the hourly chart shows a bearish arrangement for the 7, 30, and 120 moving averages, with the price operating below EMA7, indicating a downward trend. The EMA at the daily level also shows a bearish arrangement, further confirming the overall weakness, and this week's operations will continue to focus on shorting rebounds.
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The survival rules for ordinary people: gold tokens, ETFs, or gold bars? (Transfer)
Digital gold frenzy: Tether hoarding 1 ton of gold bars every week, retail investors expect a surge of 6%! A great migration of wealth under a $38 trillion debt crisis
——From the USDT treasury to the central bank selling U.S. bonds, understanding the only truth about asset allocation for the next 10 years
When the world's most aggressive 'gold digger' is no longer Middle Eastern tycoons or central banks, but a company issuing digital currency—Tether's gold reserves have soared to $12.9 billion (104 tons), buying gold bars at a crazy pace of 'one ton per week'. This USDT issuer has converted 7% of its reserve assets into gold, behind which is a gamble against the credit risk of the dollar:
——From the USDT treasury to the central bank selling U.S. bonds, understanding the only truth about asset allocation for the next 10 years
When the world's most aggressive 'gold digger' is no longer Middle Eastern tycoons or central banks, but a company issuing digital currency—Tether's gold reserves have soared to $12.9 billion (104 tons), buying gold bars at a crazy pace of 'one ton per week'. This USDT issuer has converted 7% of its reserve assets into gold, behind which is a gamble against the credit risk of the dollar:
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OKX's move is an important step in bridging the gap between CEX and DeFi, focusing on enhancing user convenience and providing cross-chain functionality. Simplifying the trading process and providing incentives help attract both new and experienced cryptocurrency users.
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