三木Trader

Directly weaken or have another rebound? $BTC

Binance has launched the TradeFi gold trading pair. Unlike the previous PAXG, this time its index price weight mostly comes from the comprehensive gold index, which is the gold prices from other markets. This time it is no longer a trading token for gold, but rather a gold index. The kind of sharp fluctuations seen with PAXG are unlikely to occur this time $XAU

The yellow line represents BTC trends
The blue line represents BCH trends
BTC showed a downward trend after reaching a peak in October
BCH began to reverse and gradually strengthen in the second half of November
Currently starting to gradually test the highs of September and October
Moving against the market trend
Today's market has slightly warmed up, while BCH is on the edge of a structural breakthrough
There is a chance to break through and strengthen

ZEC small structure breakthrough, upward vacuum zone, with acceleration expectations

Recently, the market has been declining, but positions remain high.
However, just now a 15-minute decline quickly brought down the positions.
It seems that a small portion of bulls have surrendered.
Moreover, this is the POC position of the consolidation in April.
I believe there might be a short-term support here.
If the US market continues to decline, there may be a significant rebound by the end of Saturday #BTC .

Small acceleration is coming
83000✅

$Aster remains strong despite the market being sluggish
The market is stagnant while breaking through = ready to take off

The market hasn't accelerated yet, be patient! $BTC

MicroStrategy recently added 8,178 BTC
Cost 836 million
The old man has taken action

ZEC is moving near the previous highs like an antenna
Multiple upper shadows indicate that the bearish pressure is very strong
At the same time, once it breaks through
The bears will be scattered
Focus on the breakthrough point #ZEC $ZEC

ETH keeps falling, but if the bottom structure breaks, you can try to see some rebound $ETH

The Black Swan has arrived

MicroStrategy transferring BTC?
Is it time to sell?
Can't the old man hold on any longer?

Seeing right and doing wrong is the most frustrating
The overall direction and logic are correct
But encountered many problems during the trading process

This BTC trade was entered short on the right side
The market did indeed decline as expected in the first phase
But the next day it immediately rebounded strongly

To avoid floating profits turning into floating losses, I usually set a protective stop loss
Unless there are unexpected events, I eventually exit at the original cost
The later market continues to oscillate up and down
It’s almost impossible to find entry opportunities that meet my expectations

As a result, I missed this segment of the decline

Looking back
The original analysis was fine
Because analysis only has right or wrong, without the experience in between
So being an analyst is simple, because in the end there will only be two kinds of results
But trading is difficult, with too many variables

If I really say there are any principled errors in this trade
There really are none
It's just that from a results-oriented perspective, I indeed missed the market

I have summarized
Whenever I encounter oscillating upward/downward (channel)
In most cases, I tend to miss out
This is a weak point in the trading model
However, there is currently no particularly good way to optimize
If you want to capture channel movements
You might have to give up other market movements to achieve balance