JD2 the Moon
Thị trường không chỉ có trắng và đen. Tìm kiếm sự thật nằm giữa các con số BTC & ETH. Chia sẻ góc nhìn khách quan, tĩnh lặng giữa những con sóng crypto. ✨
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Is Bitcoin a risk asset or a defensive asset?
Bitcoin is often labeled very inconsistently. Sometimes it moves with Nasdaq, other times it is called 'digital gold'.
The fact is: BTC has two natures at the same time, and its behavior depends on the macro context.
When does Bitcoin behave like a risk-on asset?
• Global liquidity is easing.
• USD is weakening.
• Real interest rates are decreasing.
• Equity is growing strongly.
During this period:
• BTC has a high correlation with Nasdaq.
• Capital inflow into spot + derivatives is increasing.
The fact is: BTC has two natures at the same time, and its behavior depends on the macro context.
When does Bitcoin behave like a risk-on asset?
• Global liquidity is easing.
• USD is weakening.
• Real interest rates are decreasing.
• Equity is growing strongly.
During this period:
• BTC has a high correlation with Nasdaq.
• Capital inflow into spot + derivatives is increasing.
When stocks slow down, gold rises, and the USD has not given way.
2026 is starting with a rather paradoxical setup:
• Equity: SPX is moving sideways within a narrow range — valuations are no longer cheap, investors are waiting for the Fed to confirm the interest rate curve.
• Gold: breakout of the old peak in 2025 — benefiting from geopolitical issues + hedging the portfolio + the narrative of 'insurance asset' returning.
• USD: DXY has not clearly slowed down — making risky assets lack momentum to accelerate.
Noteworthy points in cash flow for 2026:
• Risk-on has yet to see a new leading trend.
• Equity: SPX is moving sideways within a narrow range — valuations are no longer cheap, investors are waiting for the Fed to confirm the interest rate curve.
• Gold: breakout of the old peak in 2025 — benefiting from geopolitical issues + hedging the portfolio + the narrative of 'insurance asset' returning.
• USD: DXY has not clearly slowed down — making risky assets lack momentum to accelerate.
Noteworthy points in cash flow for 2026:
• Risk-on has yet to see a new leading trend.
AI x Crypto = ?
AI is beginning to use blockchain as infrastructure — not just a narrative.
2024–2025, 'AI x Crypto' is marketing hype. Many pitch decks talk about synergy, but there are few real applications.
2026 reversal: less talk, but AI becomes a real user of the chain.
Agent uses blockchain to:
• pay fees,
• store state,
• query decentralized data,
• run contracts,
• self-custody of assets.
No drama, no tokens, no sentiment — only the criteria of the 'machine': fees, throughput, latency, data, uptime.
2024–2025, 'AI x Crypto' is marketing hype. Many pitch decks talk about synergy, but there are few real applications.
2026 reversal: less talk, but AI becomes a real user of the chain.
Agent uses blockchain to:
• pay fees,
• store state,
• query decentralized data,
• run contracts,
• self-custody of assets.
No drama, no tokens, no sentiment — only the criteria of the 'machine': fees, throughput, latency, data, uptime.
Góc nhìn “tại sao năm 2026 khó đoán hơn 2025?”
2025 kết thúc với trạng thái “kỳ vọng nhiều – hiện thực chưa chắc” ở hầu hết thị trường tài chính. Bước sang 2026, có 3 điểm khiến thị trường khó đoán hơn:
• Không còn câu chuyện đơn giản về lãi suất.
• Cắt hay không cắt không còn là trung tâm duy nhất — Fed đang cân bằng tăng trưởng, việc làm và lạm phát.
• Dòng tiền không chảy theo 1 hướng.
• Vàng tăng, chứng khoán đi ngang, crypto biến động trong biên, và trái phiếu chờ tín hiệu. Nghĩa là chưa có “người dẫn đầu” của chu kỳ mới.
• Nhà đầu tư tổ chức thận trọng.
• Quý 1 thường là thời điểm thiết lập chiến lược năm, nhưng 2026 đang thấy “đợi thêm dữ liệu” thay vì hành động.
Bài học cho người mới:
Đây là giai đoạn thị trường không thưởng cho sự nóng vội. Vừa học cách đọc tín hiệu vĩ mô, vừa quan sát dòng tiền sẽ hiệu quả hơn là cố đoán đáy/đỉnh.
Kết luận:
Chu kỳ thị trường không lặp lại y chang — nhưng dòng tiền thì luôn có logic. Ai theo dõi được logic đó sẽ hiểu tại sao tài sản tăng hoặc giảm.
#Macro2026 #MarketCycles #GlobalMarkets #FedWatch #Web3
• Không còn câu chuyện đơn giản về lãi suất.
• Cắt hay không cắt không còn là trung tâm duy nhất — Fed đang cân bằng tăng trưởng, việc làm và lạm phát.
• Dòng tiền không chảy theo 1 hướng.
• Vàng tăng, chứng khoán đi ngang, crypto biến động trong biên, và trái phiếu chờ tín hiệu. Nghĩa là chưa có “người dẫn đầu” của chu kỳ mới.
• Nhà đầu tư tổ chức thận trọng.
• Quý 1 thường là thời điểm thiết lập chiến lược năm, nhưng 2026 đang thấy “đợi thêm dữ liệu” thay vì hành động.
Bài học cho người mới:
Đây là giai đoạn thị trường không thưởng cho sự nóng vội. Vừa học cách đọc tín hiệu vĩ mô, vừa quan sát dòng tiền sẽ hiệu quả hơn là cố đoán đáy/đỉnh.
Kết luận:
Chu kỳ thị trường không lặp lại y chang — nhưng dòng tiền thì luôn có logic. Ai theo dõi được logic đó sẽ hiểu tại sao tài sản tăng hoặc giảm.
#Macro2026 #MarketCycles #GlobalMarkets #FedWatch #Web3
Geo/Commodity rotation
2026 begins with a focus on commodities, not crypto.
• Institutional money at the beginning of the year is prioritizing light defense.
• Gold maintains its position as an 'insurance asset' in the context of geopolitical tensions.
• Silver benefits from the industrial + solar narrative.
• Oil is not rising sharply but is more stable compared to 2025.
• USD has not shown clear signs of slowing down, making it difficult for risk assets to gain momentum.
Main narrative:
Money flows before entering growth → often go through safety + defense first.
• Institutional money at the beginning of the year is prioritizing light defense.
• Gold maintains its position as an 'insurance asset' in the context of geopolitical tensions.
• Silver benefits from the industrial + solar narrative.
• Oil is not rising sharply but is more stable compared to 2025.
• USD has not shown clear signs of slowing down, making it difficult for risk assets to gain momentum.
Main narrative:
Money flows before entering growth → often go through safety + defense first.
Sideways is the poorest meta content of crypto
Sideways in the right way:
not enough decrease to be pessimistic,
not enough increase to be happy,
and especially... not enough drama to have content.
In sideways, volume is asleep, sentiment is asleep, and traders open the chart just to close it again. Analysts are 'temporarily observing', holders are 'temporarily silent', while KOLs turn to tell life stories.
The whole market becomes a 'temporary' conference.
The funniest thing is that everyone knows that sideways is to gather energy, but no one knows whether it's to go up or down. Because sideways promises nothing, just says 'wait for me'.
not enough decrease to be pessimistic,
not enough increase to be happy,
and especially... not enough drama to have content.
In sideways, volume is asleep, sentiment is asleep, and traders open the chart just to close it again. Analysts are 'temporarily observing', holders are 'temporarily silent', while KOLs turn to tell life stories.
The whole market becomes a 'temporary' conference.
The funniest thing is that everyone knows that sideways is to gather energy, but no one knows whether it's to go up or down. Because sideways promises nothing, just says 'wait for me'.
GEOPOLITICS AND THE RISE OF "DIGITAL GOLD"
A summary of global financial market fluctuations influenced by the latest geopolitical movements:
1. Immediate market reaction (Short-term)
Heightened geopolitical tensions along with strong statements from the Trump administration regarding new trade agreements have led to a short-term portfolio restructuring:
Traditional safe-haven assets: Gold and Silver have recorded impressive growth as capital seeks safety amid uncertainties.
1. Immediate market reaction (Short-term)
Heightened geopolitical tensions along with strong statements from the Trump administration regarding new trade agreements have led to a short-term portfolio restructuring:
Traditional safe-haven assets: Gold and Silver have recorded impressive growth as capital seeks safety amid uncertainties.
📊 ON-CHAIN DATA: ETHEREUM NETWORK RECORDS A WAVE OF NEW USERS
Ethereum network data in January 01/2026 shows a surge in user scale and transaction volume. Key metrics indicate that the momentum comes from new user groups rather than older wallets being more active:
1. The explosion of new wallet numbers
According to Glassnode, the number of wallet addresses interacting for the first time with Ethereum has increased from 4 million to about 8 million addresses in the past 30 days (an increase of 100%).
1. The explosion of new wallet numbers
According to Glassnode, the number of wallet addresses interacting for the first time with Ethereum has increased from 4 million to about 8 million addresses in the past 30 days (an increase of 100%).
📊 ETF NEWS 01/13: ORGANIZED CAPITAL CONTINUES TO FLOW IN
Detailed update on net inflows/outflows of digital asset ETFs in the latest trading session and year-to-date summary for 2026:
1. Bitcoin ETF: Maintain strong absorption momentum
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain the primary driver of the market:
Net Inflow: Additional +1.2 billion USD recorded in the past week.
Total Assets Under Management (AUM): ETFs currently hold over 1.1 million BTC, equivalent to approximately 5% of total circulating supply.
1. Bitcoin ETF: Maintain strong absorption momentum
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain the primary driver of the market:
Net Inflow: Additional +1.2 billion USD recorded in the past week.
Total Assets Under Management (AUM): ETFs currently hold over 1.1 million BTC, equivalent to approximately 5% of total circulating supply.
THE CLARITY ACT BILL – WILL CRYPTO "LEVEL UP" OR LOSE ITS ESSENCE?
Hello everyone!
I want to dive deep into a topic that's causing a storm in the U.S.: the CLARITY Act. This isn't just dry legislation—it directly impacts our wallets and future.
I'll summarize the 3 key points to help you understand easily:
1. "Level up" thanks to clear rules
Previously, the crypto industry was always in the "gray area." Now, the CLARITY Act is like a golden ticket. When the law is clear, legal risks decrease, and major players like banks and pension funds will feel confident investing.
I want to dive deep into a topic that's causing a storm in the U.S.: the CLARITY Act. This isn't just dry legislation—it directly impacts our wallets and future.
I'll summarize the 3 key points to help you understand easily:
1. "Level up" thanks to clear rules
Previously, the crypto industry was always in the "gray area." Now, the CLARITY Act is like a golden ticket. When the law is clear, legal risks decrease, and major players like banks and pension funds will feel confident investing.
☕ ON-CHAIN NEWS 07/01: TRACKING THE FOOTPRINTS OF "SHARKS" – ACCUMULATING OR SELLING?
Hello everyone, this morning let's quickly analyze on-chain data to see what the "big players" are doing with their enormous funds:
1. Sharks quietly "pulling out" from the exchange
Data from CryptoQuant shows a significant increase in net Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges over the past 24 hours.
Meaning: When big whales withdraw BTC to cold wallets, selling pressure decreases significantly. They choose to hold (hold) instead of taking profits around $93k.
1. Sharks quietly "pulling out" from the exchange
Data from CryptoQuant shows a significant increase in net Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges over the past 24 hours.
Meaning: When big whales withdraw BTC to cold wallets, selling pressure decreases significantly. They choose to hold (hold) instead of taking profits around $93k.
☕ MORNING NEWS 06/01: BITCOIN AT 250K AND THE ERA OF "MONEY PRODUCING MONEY" WITH ETH
Hello everyone,
The first Monday of 2026 has opened with a "refreshing" green hue across the entire front. I've just compiled 3 extremely noteworthy news items for you to absorb:
1. Historic turning point: ETH ETF begins "paying dividends" to investors
Grayscale (ETHE) has officially become the first ETH ETF in the U.S. to start distributing staking rewards to shareholders (0.083178 USD per share).
The first Monday of 2026 has opened with a "refreshing" green hue across the entire front. I've just compiled 3 extremely noteworthy news items for you to absorb:
1. Historic turning point: ETH ETF begins "paying dividends" to investors
Grayscale (ETHE) has officially become the first ETH ETF in the U.S. to start distributing staking rewards to shareholders (0.083178 USD per share).
☕ MORNING BRIEFING: 3 FLUCTUATIONS FROM THE US SESSION LAST NIGHT YOU SHOULD NOT MISS
Hello everyone, I wish you a new week full of energy! To start the workday, I quickly summarize the 3 hottest news from the US market last night for you to catch the market pulse:
1. Bitcoin regains the $93,000 mark – Strong recovery momentum
After a slight shake before the political news, Bitcoin made an impressive comeback during the US session last night, currently trading around $93,150. The total market capitalization has also exceeded $3.1 trillion. It seems that demand from institutions is still very strong, everyone.
1. Bitcoin regains the $93,000 mark – Strong recovery momentum
After a slight shake before the political news, Bitcoin made an impressive comeback during the US session last night, currently trading around $93,150. The total market capitalization has also exceeded $3.1 trillion. It seems that demand from institutions is still very strong, everyone.
🚀 MAY TURNING POINT: FED CHANGES LEADERS, WILL BITCOIN BREAK 100K?
While everyone is busy watching the green and red candles around $90k, I am focusing on a "time bomb" that could completely change the game in May. That is the personnel change at the FED.
I have some actual data I want to share so you can understand: According to data from CME FedWatch, the market is betting on a 65% chance that the FED will lower interest rates by an additional 0.25% in this second quarter. Overall for the year 2026, the financial community is expecting at least 3 rate cuts.
I have some actual data I want to share so you can understand: According to data from CME FedWatch, the market is betting on a 65% chance that the FED will lower interest rates by an additional 0.25% in this second quarter. Overall for the year 2026, the financial community is expecting at least 3 rate cuts.
🚀 DCA & DISCIPLINE: THE FORMULA FOR INVESTING EASILY IN A VOLATILE MARKET
Many people ask me: "With such little capital, can I invest in Crypto?". My answer is: The less capital you have, the sooner you should start with a steel discipline.
Instead of spending the whole day analyzing charts, I choose to allocate a fixed portion of my income each month – even if it's small – to invest in the market. The secret doesn't lie in having a large amount of money or timing the bottom, but in consistency.
📈 Let's look at the actual numbers:
Instead of spending the whole day analyzing charts, I choose to allocate a fixed portion of my income each month – even if it's small – to invest in the market. The secret doesn't lie in having a large amount of money or timing the bottom, but in consistency.
📈 Let's look at the actual numbers:
🚀 SOLANA: FROM "ACHILLES' HEEL" TO "F1 MACHINE" OF CRYPTO
If Bitcoin is Gold, Ethereum is Oil, then Solana (SOL) is like a Formula 1 car: Extremely fast but also full of drama. After historical events, Solana 2026 is no longer the "playful child" that often gets stuck. Why can't we ignore SOL in the portfolio?
🌟 3 Points "Bright" undeniable:
• Firedancer – the new "Heart": This update has solved the chronic network congestion issue, bringing Solana's processing speed to new heights that other Layer 1 competitors must look up to.
🌟 3 Points "Bright" undeniable:
• Firedancer – the new "Heart": This update has solved the chronic network congestion issue, bringing Solana's processing speed to new heights that other Layer 1 competitors must look up to.
🚀 AFTER THE BITCOIN ETF, IS IT TIME FOR ETHEREUM TO "SPEAK UP"?
While all eyes are focused on BTC, there's a "money-printing machine" quietly amassing tremendous power: Ethereum.
🌟 Why is ETH so formidable in 2026?
● Tech breakthrough 2026: Two major updates are changing the game:
○ Glamsterdam: Aiming to make the Layer 1 network faster and cheaper than ever.
○ Hegota: Helps make the system lighter, safer, and especially increases censorship resistance.
🌟 Why is ETH so formidable in 2026?
● Tech breakthrough 2026: Two major updates are changing the game:
○ Glamsterdam: Aiming to make the Layer 1 network faster and cheaper than ever.
○ Hegota: Helps make the system lighter, safer, and especially increases censorship resistance.
🎭 "The Calmness of a Holder"
When the price rises, they say: 'I wish it would drop so I can buy more'. When it drops by 5%, they ask: 'Hey guys, is Bitcoin dead yet?'. Be a Holder with a strong mindset, everyone! 🤡📈
$BTC $ETH
$BTC $ETH
BlackRock currently manages over 13.5 trillion USD in global assets. Just a 1% shift into BTC, and you know what will happen!
THE POWER OF THE "GIANT" BLACKROCK & THE NUMBERS THAT SPEAK 🏛️📊
If you still doubt the position of Bitcoin, just look at these "numbers that don't lie". 🧐
🚀 Speed of light: BlackRock's IBIT fund has reached the milestone of 1 billion USD in assets under management (AUM) just after 4 days of trading. In comparison, the famous Gold ETF (GLD) took nearly 2 years to achieve the same thing.
💰 What is the giant holding? * As of now, the IBIT fund has managed over 20 billion USD (this number is still rapidly growing with the influx of money each day).
🚀 Speed of light: BlackRock's IBIT fund has reached the milestone of 1 billion USD in assets under management (AUM) just after 4 days of trading. In comparison, the famous Gold ETF (GLD) took nearly 2 years to achieve the same thing.
💰 What is the giant holding? * As of now, the IBIT fund has managed over 20 billion USD (this number is still rapidly growing with the influx of money each day).
THE POWER OF THE "GIANT" BLACKROCK & THE NUMBERS THAT SPEAK 🏛️📊
If you still doubt the position of Bitcoin, just look at these "numbers that don't lie". 🧐
🚀 Speed of light: BlackRock's IBIT fund has reached the milestone of 1 billion USD in assets under management (AUM) just after 4 days of trading. In comparison, the famous Gold ETF (GLD) took nearly 2 years to achieve the same thing.
💰 What is the giant holding? * As of now, the IBIT fund has managed over 20 billion USD (this number is still rapidly growing with the influx of money each day).
🚀 Speed of light: BlackRock's IBIT fund has reached the milestone of 1 billion USD in assets under management (AUM) just after 4 days of trading. In comparison, the famous Gold ETF (GLD) took nearly 2 years to achieve the same thing.
💰 What is the giant holding? * As of now, the IBIT fund has managed over 20 billion USD (this number is still rapidly growing with the influx of money each day).
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