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According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a challenging market environment, with its price fluctuating within a range after testing the demand zone between $112,000 and $113,000. The cryptocurrency is attempting to surpass a descending resistance trendline, which could potentially lead to a rally towards $115,700. However, analysts have identified a hidden risk zone around the $105,000 level, which is becoming increasingly significant based on various onchain metrics.

Crypto analyst CryptoMe highlights that multiple indicators, including the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) analysis and realized price models, are converging around the $105,000–$106,000 region. The UTXO Cost Basis Histogram reveals a significant accumulation or realization wall at $105,644, while the realized price for 1–3 month holders and short-term holders aligns closely at $106,000 and $105,350, respectively. Despite these potentially bearish signals in the short term, the analyst maintains a bullish outlook for Bitcoin over the medium and long term. The possibility of a retest around $105,000 could trigger sharp volatility, posing risks to leveraged traders in the derivatives market.

Further data from Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin is in a precarious position below $117,000. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicates significant resistance at this level, where a large number of BTC UTXOs were created or last moved. Below $117,000, a gap extends down to $108,000, with minimal support at $113,000, suggesting potential for rapid downside movement if Bitcoin loses its current price level. This reinforces the possibility of a decline towards $105,000.

Trading platform Hyblock Capital notes that Bitcoin's open interest (OI) remains elevated at $79 billion, indicating that speculation in the futures market has not fully reset. This keeps the market fragile, especially as Bitcoin undergoes a correction from its $123,000 all-time high. Historically, high OI levels combined with the Fear & Greed Index entering "Extreme Greed" territory have preceded local tops and corrections. This pattern was observed on July 16, leading to Bitcoin's drop to $112,000 from $120,000. Although the Fear & Greed Index has now reset to Neutral, high open interest continues to outline price uncertainty.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. adds that futures market bearishness peaked at –7.5% on July 29, shortly after Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. While this pressure has eased slightly to –5.2%, structural risks remain. Adler warns that any sudden negative catalyst could trigger a cascade of long liquidations, amplifying downside momentum. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a decline of approximately 7.8% over the past three weeks, coinciding with a broader correction in the cryptocurrency market. Analysts suggest that this downturn might represent the final shakeout before Bitcoin embarks on a significant upward trajectory, potentially reaching $150,000. On Sunday, Bitcoin managed to reclaim its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a support level after briefly dipping below it the previous day. Historically, the 50-day EMA has proven to be a reliable support for initiating fresh rallies, as evidenced by a 25% rebound following a similar dip in June. Analyst BitBull anticipates a similar setup in the coming days, suggesting that even a drop into the $110,000–$112,000 range could establish a "perfect bottom" for Bitcoin, paving the way for the next upward movement.

The 50-day EMA support aligns with the neckline of Bitcoin's prevailing inverted head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern. After surpassing this neckline, Bitcoin has pulled back to retest it—a typical post-breakout move—and bounced, reinforcing the validity of the bullish reversal setup. The successful retest of the neckline now indicates that Bitcoin may be entering the continuation phase of its breakout, with the IH&S pattern targeting a move toward $148,250. This target is close to the widely anticipated $150,000 upside for Bitcoin in 2025, which many analysts expect to materialize around October.

Onchain data further suggests that Bitcoin's ongoing price dip may lead to another major breakout. During the 2023–2025 bull market, Bitcoin has witnessed three significant waves of profit-taking by whales, as reported by CryptoQuant data. The first wave followed the March 2024 launch of US spot ETFs, the second occurred after Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 following U.S. President Donald Trump's election in late 2024, and the third took place in July 2025 after a breakout over $120,000 triggered an 80,000 BTC selloff by an old whale. Each wave of profit-taking preceded a period of price consolidation or moderate correction, lasting between two to four months, according to CryptoQuant analysts. They note that these cooling phases have historically set the stage for renewed accumulation and subsequent breakouts to new all-time highs. The data provides compelling evidence that the market is undergoing another cyclical cooling phase, consistent with prior waves that preceded periods of consolidation and later breakouts to higher prices.