Based on a comprehensive analysis of technical indicators and capital flow, the current market shows a clear bearish dominance. Prices are fluctuating near key support levels, but multiple indicators suggest that downward pressure has not yet been fully released.
Direction: Cautiously look for short entry Timing: It is recommended to short at highs in the 90500-90800 range, or to follow the downtrend after a valid break below 89500 Stop-loss setting: 91500 (approximately 3% stop-loss margin) Target price: 88000 (first target, approximately 3% profit) → 86500 (second target, approximately 5% profit)
Direction: Cautiously enter long positions. Entry timing: It is recommended to build positions in batches within the range of 91500-92000, or chase after a valid breakout at 92500. Stop-loss setting: 90500 USDT (risk control at 2-3%). Target price: First target 93500, second target 94500 (expected return rate 3-5%).
December 9 news: In the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this week (the last one of the year), half of the officials may oppose the rate cut, but Powell still plans to push for a rate reduction. The focus of the meeting is to build consensus, with a possible path being a reduction of 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, and to signal a higher threshold for subsequent easing. Among the 12 voting members of the Federal Reserve, 5 and 10 out of 19 members do not support a rate cut; last month's delayed version of the September non-farm payrolls showed job growth but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the reasons for the slowdown in employment have become a point of controversy regarding the rate cut.
• Price-Volume Structure: Increased Volume on Decline, Decreased Volume on Rebound (Weak Characteristics)
• Capital Flow: Net Outflow of Short-Term Contracts 1H (-23031102.95), Net Inflow 4H (14404519.28, Low-Level Support); Continuous Net Outflow in Spot Market (Selling Pressure Unabated)
2. Trading Execution Plan
• Entry Timing: ① Short Sell on Rebound to Resistance Zone 90800-91100; ② Effectively Break Below Support Level 89666 to Short Sell
• Stop-Loss Setting: 91500 (1.5% Margin) or Adjust to 3% Based on Risk Preference
• Target Price: First Target 88969, Second Target 88133 (Expected Return Rate 4-6%)
• 4H net inflow of 352 million, 24H net inflow of 397 million, derivatives market sentiment is relatively optimistic.
• Spot capital: 24H net outflow of 29.13 million, diverging from contract capital flow.
• Key reminder: Short-term bullish atmosphere is supported by contract capital, but be wary of potential suppression from spot capital outflows to avoid one-sided chasing of longs. Big coin: Buy in batches on pullback at 90500-90800 or chase longs if it breaks 91500, stop loss at 89200, target 92000-92500. Second coin: Buy in batches on pullback at 3050-3070 or chase longs if it breaks 3150 on increased volume, stop loss below 3020, target 3180-3200, 3250-3280.
Weekend Silk Road precision needs no questioning, the feel is still there, and if there is no direction, Fan Chang is still continuing to keep up with the rhythm, together we step on the mountain peak. #美联储重启降息步伐
Cautious Short Selling Strategy (Including Volume-Price Confirmation)
1. Entry Trigger (Choose One, Must Meet Volume-Price Conditions):
◦ Bounce to R1 (89597.56) Area: A significant bearish candlestick appears (trading volume increases by ≥30% compared to the average of the previous 3 candles), or MACD shows a bearish crossover at a high position / RSI is overbought (≥70) and retreats, confirming the pressure is valid before entering.
◦ Break below S2 (88615.54): Requires a significant volume breakout (trading volume increases by ≥50%), and if it does not quickly pull back above this price level within 30 minutes after the breakout, avoid false breakouts.
2. Stop Loss and Position Size:
◦ The stop loss is still set at 92300 (3% above the current price), and it is recommended to keep the single strategy position size ≤10% to avoid extreme volatility risks.
3. Targets and Take Profit:
◦ First target S3 (88374.38), after reaching, can reduce the position by 50%;
◦ If it breaks below S3 and the volume continues, it can look to S4 (87892.22), and the remaining position should use a trailing stop loss (20 points below the latest low) to protect profits.
Do you need me to organize this strategy into a visual position management table, or generate a corresponding technical pattern diagram?
• Short-term rhythm: After yesterday's rise, the 4-hour line deviates from support 89923, do not chase long today; if support is maintained, operations can be conducted tomorrow.
• Daily key: Approaching the trend line 93958, if it stands firm, it turns to a bullish outlook, with rebound targets at 95604 and 99108. #币安区块链周