宋哥翻仓日记

Usage is super simple:
① Enter 【chat room】 in the search bar to find the entry
② Click 【＋】 in the upper right corner
③ Enter the chat room ID: 1185727099
④ Search for me to help you turn over and get ashore

No more holding on, brothers. I've set my take profit and stop loss. I just don't believe you can drop back down. Whether it's life or death, we'll see tomorrow!

Brothers, simple and straightforward 26000💪💪
Only strength can prove everything

New Indicators of Market Liquidity-----BTC
Last Friday night, whether it was AI giants, tech giants, Bitcoin, or risk assets including gold and silver, there was a simultaneous major pullback. Lucky remembers that on November 14th, Black Friday, a similar situation occurred. As shown in Figure 2, it is often Bitcoin that issues warnings in advance. Why is that?
Regardless of whether you pay attention to Bitcoin or not, you should read this article. When a liquidity crisis occurs, Bitcoin is the first to send signals, dropping early, sharply, and most honestly. On the night of the 12th, a series of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials led to a liquidity crisis in the market. Institutions began to reduce risk exposure, selling AI, tech stocks, and cryptocurrencies. Among these, Bitcoin was the fastest to sell. Bitcoin is a product that trades instantly 24 hours a day, and its sharp decline is a preemptive reaction of the market to liquidity tightening. For those who invest in the future, it is advisable to pay attention.
This week there will be a major non-farm payroll report, CPI, and interest rate hikes, as well as various geopolitical issues. Lucky believes in a steady rise but urges caution when entering the market. Don't act blindly, and may good luck be with you.

Just trust the Air Force and it's done
Let's see if 🐶Zhuang can cut me or if I can take him down!
It's simple, earning 5000U, currently 118000U, continue to rush for 500000U.

Today, do you dare to bottom fish?
The crash alert has been sounded: Japan's interest rate hike has an 80% chance of triggering a $19 trillion bomb! Have you bottomed out your BTC? Do you remember the interest rate swap disaster of 2022?
This morning, BTC suddenly broke below 83000. Did you think it was just a normal adjustment? Staring at the screen, I broke into a cold sweat just because of one number: 80%. The market is crazily betting on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December, with the probability soaring to 80%, and even reaching 90% in January! This is not just an interest rate hike; it is directly igniting the fuse of the global $19 trillion yen carry trade!
For global traders, this awakens painful memories of Christmas 2022. At that time, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly adjusted its yield curve control (YCC) policy in its December meeting, raising the upper limit of 10-year government bond yields from 0.25% to 0.5%, causing severe turmoil in global markets.
Considering that December 19 is just before the Christmas holiday, market liquidity is usually at an annual low point. Any unexpected policy tightening could be amplified in this weak liquidity environment, triggering a new round of “carry trade disasters.”
For decades, the near-zero interest rate yen has been borrowed and exchanged for dollars to rush into US stocks and the crypto market.
Once Japan raises interest rates, massive funds will instantly return and withdraw. The result? BTC will be the first to suffer. Data does not lie: BTC's monthly decline exceeds 20%, $3.5 billion in ETF outflows, over $400 million in single-night liquidations... the market has become as fragile as paper.
Don't forget the Federal Reserve! Powell is silent about policy tonight, which is even more frightening — the quiet period is often the calm before the storm. If Japan tightens and the US doesn't loosen, BTC will face a double whammy.
Take a look at BNB, it has fallen to heartbreak. The new official Lina has been parachuted in as the BSC Growth Director, but the retail investors are almost gone; what will drive growth? On-chain projects have fallen below CZ's buy-in price, and the vulgar penguins have long become “fallen penguins.” But don’t panic, the most anxious are not you — it's the new officials and exchanges. Will there be a market rescue? Maybe it's already on the way.
Remember: closing carry trades is just a short-term impact, not the end of the world. After Japan's interest rate hike in 2024, BTC could hit new highs within three months. Key points to watch: December's Bank of Japan meeting and the Fed's dot plot. Don't rush to go All-in; manage your positions well. Surviving means being able to benefit from a rebound.
So, let me ask you —
Today, do you dare to bottom fish?

I am Iron Head and I'm here to work
If I don't reach ten thousand, I won't close the positions💪💪
I'll keep my word and easily reach 12500U🎉🎉
Currently 112785U is one step closer to the target of 500000U

This must be taken to 10000U, otherwise it will not be closed.

I have watched this statement from UAE officials several times, and the more I watch it, the more I feel this is the most underrated super signal of 2025.
In my eyes, this is no longer just 'another country saying nice things,' but a real sovereign All in:
The UAE publicly designates Bitcoin as a pillar of the financial future and is incorporating it into reserve assets. Holding 6333 mining BTC, Mubadala holds $500 million through IBIT, and Dubai officially accepts BTC payments for public services starting December 5th—these three things connected are not just a trial, they are directly on the table.
Sovereign adoption's game theory has completely exploded.
El Salvador was a breakthrough in 2021, and by 2025, it has turned into a collective awakening: Pakistan is using excess electricity for mining as reserves, Russia's VTB is opening crypto trading, Brazil is proposing to allocate 5% of foreign exchange reserves to BTC... The UAE is directly pouring the credit of Middle Eastern oil tycoons into this. As long as another country like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or Singapore follows suit, Bitcoin at $100,000 will just be a new floor.
In the short term, I see it very clearly:
Next week, Bitcoin ETFs are likely to see an inflow of $3-5 billion, and 2x leveraged ETFs (BITX, BITO) will first pull up 20-30% to attract retail investors, and then there will be a severe washout; gold and silver will be diverted in the short term.
I have also left a backup plan for risks:
If the Federal Reserve is unexpectedly hawkish on December 18 or if there are further ripples in the Middle East, Bitcoin will also drop to $80-85K, which will be my last opportunity to increase my position, and I have kept 15% cash waiting.
But looking at the long term, I am more determined than ever:
Bitcoin is completing the ultimate leap from 'digital gold' to 'digital oil.' The UAE showing its cards today is telling the whole world—whoever puts Bitcoin into the treasury first in the next round of currency wars will seize the dual peak of energy and finance.
In summary:
This is not the 13th month of a bull market, but the 1st month of a new paradigm.
I have moved up my originally planned Bitcoin allocation for 2026 to be fully in place this month, not wanting to miss any sovereign entry window.

Challenge 10000U rush to 500000U for a successful turnaround
Currently 100000U has achieved a small accomplishment💪💪

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in the early morning? Are you ready to go all in?
The Federal Reserve is finally going to announce its interest rate decision! According to market predictions, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is over 87%, it's basically set! This move will directly ignite global risk assets, especially our 'favorite children' in the crypto space～
Why is a Federal Reserve rate cut a super positive signal for the crypto market?
Liquidity frenzy: Rate cuts = cheaper money, institutional big shots are flush with funds and tend to flock to high-risk assets. BTC and ETH, these big brothers, have shown us through historical experience that every time the Federal Reserve enters a easing cycle, Bitcoin skyrockets (remember after the rate cut in 2020, BTC shot up from $10,000 to $60,000?)
Risk appetite up up: The Nasdaq might continue to party, boosting the entire crypto market's sentiment. Altcoins, DeFi, and small-cap NFTs are all expected to follow suit with significant gains! Especially the Solana ecosystem and Layer 2 projects, which have recently caught the attention of hot money.
The dollar weakens, BTC's safe-haven attributes shine: The DXY dollar index is expected to test lower levels, gold and silver are already soaring (silver has broken the $62 new high!), Bitcoin, as 'digital gold', is naturally not to be outdone. Don't forget, after Trump took office, policies became more favorable towards the crypto space, and rate cuts are like a buff boost!

Tonight, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut signals the start! Whales and institutions are frantically buying up, is BTC heading for 100,000? Yesterday, the crypto market surged, and the time for the interest rate meeting announcement tonight is 3 AM. Will ETH head south or north?
Brothers, the market has changed! The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is almost a done deal, and global funds are moving, making cryptocurrencies the hottest destination. Overnight, BTC returned above 94,000 dollars, and ETH surged nearly 7%, breaking through 3,391 dollars!
Core Engine: The global floodgates are about to open
The market bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this week, and next year may see aggressive cuts of nearly 4 times. Historical experience tells us that once the global "flood" occurs, Bitcoin, as a scarce asset, becomes the largest reservoir for employment.
This is the hardest logic behind this round of skyrocketing!
Real money is pouring in, and it can't be stopped
• Institutions are FOMOing: On just December 9th, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs absorbed over 320 million dollars! Even traditional financial giant Vanguard finally relented, allowing clients to trade BTC ETFs.
• Whales are positioning early: On-chain data has exploded! Whales have swept up nearly 400,000 ETH in two days; even SpaceX has been reported to transfer over 90 million dollars of BTC to a custodian. The exchanges are almost drained of coins, and a supply crisis is imminent.
Technical Aspect: Bullish pattern has been established
• BTC: Strong consolidation above 92,000, with short-term moving averages in a bullish arrangement. Key resistance is in the 94,000-95,000 dollar range; once it breaks out on volume, the next target is 102,000-105,000!
• ETH: The trend is stronger, having broken out of the downward channel. Support has moved up to 3,140 dollars, with the next target 👀 looking towards 3️⃣600 dollars. However, the RSI is approaching overbought, so don't chase too aggressively in the short term.
Opportunities and risks coexist
On the path: The trend is undoubtedly on the bullish side. Cautious investors can wait for BTC to confirm a breakout above 95,000 before following in, while aggressive investors can gradually position near support levels.
Caution: Market sentiment is overheated in the short term, and ETH RSI is high; beware of technical pullbacks. At the same time, there is still uncertainty before the Federal Reserve's decision, so be sure to set stop losses!
In summary: The macro headwind has arrived, and institutions and whales are voting with their feet. A new round of market action may just be beginning; are you ready?

Did not expect to have a fever 🤒 for two days, the air force was quite impressive
Easily obtained over 14000U, which somewhat compensates for my injured body. Currently aiming for 93000U to complete one-fifth of the goal.
Continuing to sprint for 500000U

The most ruthless way to make money in the crypto world: rolling positions
I have seen too many people roll to 1 million, only to have the last trade go to zero.
This method is a thousand times more exciting than hoarding coins; either you become rich overnight or you lose everything overnight.
There are countless examples of people who, with only 1000 yuan left for food, managed to make 100,000 in 3 months through rolling positions. To put it simply, it boils down to three points:
100 times leverage + profit reinvestment + stubbornly sticking to one direction.
At the beginning, I only took 300 dollars to test the waters, opening 100 times contracts with just 10 dollars each time.
If I earn 1%, I double it, withdraw half of the profit, and continue to roll the other half.
As long as I get it right 11 times in a row, 10 dollars can turn into 10,000!
But 90% of people fail at these points:
• Not knowing when to stop after making a profit, wanting more
• Not accepting losses, increasing the stake even more when losing
• Changing directions repeatedly, getting hit from both sides
My iron rules are:
• Cut losses immediately if wrong, stop after 20 consecutive mistakes
• Withdraw 5000 dollars as soon as I earn it, never get carried away
Last year there was a big market trend, I rolled 500 dollars to 500,000 in three days—but I waited completely without moving for 4 months beforehand.
Rolling positions is not something you do every day; it’s about seizing the opportunity when it arises.
Now some people ask: can I still roll?
First, ask yourself a few questions:
• Is the market volatile enough?
• Is the trend clear and one-sided?
• Can you only eat the body of the fish without being greedy for the tail?
If the answer to all is "yes", then go for it;
If you're still hesitating, it means you haven't been taught enough by the market.
Rolling positions is a life gamble; without the right mindset and discipline, it's better to stick to hoarding coins.

Isn't it just a matter of having hands to easily get over 13000 U?
Currently over 788000 U continues to sprint towards 500000 U

The strongest defensive risk asset.
Borrow BTC (Bitcoin) to break through historical highs and write a little.

In this cycle, BTC remains one of the highest quality risk assets, showcasing very impressive data in high-net-worth family asset allocation for decades.

From a liquidity perspective, benefiting from BTC's dominance, it provides maximum growth space for BTC; it also siphons liquidity from other crypto assets (e.g., ETH Ethereum/altcoins) to maximize defense against downside risks.

From the return rate perspective, comparing across assets like Nasdaq and S&P 500 (BTC/NDQ; BTC/SPX), this indicator set a historical high in the past two weeks, meaning BTC's investment return rate continues to lead traditional high-quality U.S. stock assets.

From the cyclical opportunity perspective, although many proclaim BTC as digital gold and claim it has decoupled from the traditional stock market, history has repeatedly shown that BTC and U.S. stocks only have a leading or lagging relationship, and there is currently no evidence proving BTC has escaped a four-year bull-bear cycle.

This means that for macro investors (not short-term traders), there will always be at least one low-risk buying opportunity each year:

Such opportunities appear during the weak periods of the OPEX futures delivery in February and March in the first half of the year, and during the April Death Cross (the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average), with chances of summer lows still available in the second half of the year.

Even if unfortunately buying at local highs, it usually resolves within a relatively short period during almost regular strong rebound markets.

But other cryptocurrency investors are not so lucky.

Another interesting point is that when the federal benchmark interest rate > neutral rate (FFR > R*), BTC's dominance tends to rise, as it is now. This means that before monetary liquidity improves, BTC will continue to siphon other assets, a typical example being Ethereum, which was siphoned by BTC during the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) cycle, experiencing a painful price de-bubbling process.

Conclusion: BTC is still the best vehicle for middle-class families to maintain stable wealth growth. From the Sharpe Ratio or Sortino Ratio perspective, allocating about 80% BTC in a crypto portfolio can maximize the balance between volatility and expected returns (Figure 2).

This article only shares personal views and is not investment advice.

Major Events in the Cryptocurrency World 2025-12
International
1. [European Commission proposes to expand the powers of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), raising licensing concerns]
2. [US SEC Chairman: The entire financial system will shift to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies within a few years]
3. [South Korea plans to require cryptocurrency exchanges to bear 'no-fault compensation obligations', with the Upbit hacking incident as the trigger]
4. [FT: The US housing crisis is pushing Generation Z towards cryptocurrencies and economic nihilism]
5. [Pat Gelsinger wants to save Moore's Law, and the federal government wants to help him]
6. [French banking giant BPCE announces details of cryptocurrency trading services: now supports BTC, ETH, SOL, and USDC]
7. [Mérida, Mexico signs a Bitcoin education cooperation agreement, consolidating its status as a cryptocurrency hub]
8. [Jupiter executives admit that Jupiter Lend's 'zero contagion risk' claims are false]
9. [Coinbase CEO: Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies can monitor bad governments]
10. [US banks will open advisory channels for 'recommended' cryptocurrency assets]