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Multiple on-chain metrics now resemble conditions seen at the start of the 2022 bear market, according to Glassnode's latest weekly newsletter highlighting elevated buyer stress and rising supply held at a loss.

The data provider's supply quantiles cost basis tracks the cost basis of supply held by top buyers. Since mid-November, the Bitcoin spot price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile, which is trading near $96,100. This places more than 25% of Bitcoin supply underwater.
A similar breakdown below the 0.75 quantile marked the start of the 2022 bear market. The metric signals rising risk of top buyer capitulation as more holders face unrealized losses.

Total supply in loss on a seven-day simple moving average has reached 7.1 million Bitcoin, hitting the top end of the 5 million to 7 million range seen in early 2022. The rising figure shows increasing financial pressure on holders who bought at higher price levels.

Despite these pressures, capital continues flowing into Bitcoin on a realized cap net change basis, which stands near $8.69 billion per month. This figure remains far below the summer peak of $64.3 billion per month, according to Glassnode, indicating weakening but still positive net investment flow.

Off-chain trends show additional softening from investors. ETF demand continues to weaken, with IBIT registering a sixth consecutive week of outflows. The streak represents the longest negative period since the fund launched in January 2024, with total redemptions exceeding $2.7 billion over the past five weeks.

Spot market activity is also deteriorating. Cumulative volume delta has rolled over, with Binance CVD trending persistently negative. The Coinbase premium appears ready to roll over again after briefly flipping positive following an extended period in negative territory.

Derivatives data reinforces the decline in risk appetite. Open interest has fallen throughout November into December, suggesting reduced willingness to take on risk, particularly after the Oct. 10 liquidation flash crash event. Perpetual funding rates are mostly neutral with brief periods of negative prints.

The funding premium has cooled notably, pointing to a more balanced and less speculative environment. Glassnode notes that traders are not positioning for a strong breakout ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, with the options market showing upside being sold rather than chased. Earlier in the week, put buying dominated as Bitcoin approached $80,000, but flows shifted toward call activity as investor fears calmed after prices stabilized
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#TrumpTariffs #BinanceAlphaAlert #CPIWatch #WriteToEarnUpgrade #USJobsData $BTC $ETH $BNB Ethereum is trading above $3,100 on Friday, as bulls seek to break above a two-month-old resistance line.Ethereum is gaining strength against Bitcoin as demand for the leading altcoin increases following the FOSCA upgrade.The on-chain data shows increased interest among investors with large portfolios, while derivatives markets and exchange-traded funds remain mixed.
Ethereum (ETH) surged by more than 1% at the time of writing on Friday, extending its struggle at the confluence of a local resistance line and an overbought supply zone. Demand for the leading altcoin is rising following Wednesday's Fosaka upgrade among large-cap investors, bolstering its short-term performance against Bitcoin (BTC). 
However, the derivatives markets and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on Ethereum remain mixed. 
Fousaka's upgrade boosts Ethereum against Bitcoin
Ethereum launched the FOSCA upgrade on Wednesday, increasing the gas limit to allow for more transactions per block and reducing potential gas fees. Additionally, the upgrade introduces a minimum block fee that prevents gas fees from dropping to zero during quiet periods, and PeerDAS, which reduces storage and bandwidth requirements for nodes while increasing block capacity eightfold. 
Following the release of the new infrastructure, Ethereum rose by about 4% against Bitcoin on Wednesday, achieving a daily close above the resistance line that connects the peaks of August 24

Daily logarithmic chart for the ETH/BTC pair.
However, on the network side, auditor entry and exit rates and wait times continue to decline, despite the FOSKA upgrade, indicating a continued decline in storage momentum

Ethereum validator data. Source: Validatorqueue
On-chain Ethereum holders remain optimistic, while retail and institutional investors remain mixed.
Ethereum lacks sustained interest from both retail and institutional investors, as evidenced by derivatives data and ETF flows. CoinGlass data shows that open interest in Ethereum futures (OI) contracts stood at $37.61 billion on Friday, virtually unchanged since early November, indicating waning investor interest

Open interest for Ethereum futures contracts. Source: CoinGlass.
However, the buy/sell ratio data shows a decrease in the accumulation of bearish positions over the past 24 hours, from 54.22% on Thursday to 50.75% on Friday

Ethereum buy/sell ratio chart. Source: CoinGlass.
Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs in the US saw a net outflow of $41.57 million on Thursday, following a net inflow of $140.16 million on the FOSCA upgrade announcement the previous day. The uncertainty surrounding institutional support after the upgrade is sending mixed signals to institutional investors

Ethereum real-time ETF data. Source: Sosovalue.
However, chain holders remain confident, with the cumulative holdings of large portfolio investors ranging from 1 million to 100 million Ethereum reaching 80.28 million Ethereum on Friday, up from 75.86 million Ethereum on October 1.

In general, trust among chain holders remains stable compared to support from individuals and institutions, which fluctuates relatively sharply with broader market conditions.

Technical view: Will Ethereum surpass $3200?
Ethereum is facing headwinds near $3,200 from an upper resistance line formed by connecting the October 7 and 27 highs on the daily chart. This line completes a larger descending wedge pattern, which typically leads to an upward breakout.

To confirm the breakout, Ethereum needs to maintain a daily close above the support-turned-resistance zone between $3225 and $3287. A potential breakout move in ETH could target the next resistance zone between $3643 and $3682.

Momentum indicators on the daily chart point to a neutral to bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51 is hovering near the midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates prevailing bullish momentum, with the middle lines sloping upwards and approaching the zero line.

Daily chart of the ETH/USDT price.
However, if Ethereum fails to maintain the $3,000 level, it could revert to Monday's low of $2,716.

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Bitcoin remains capped near $92,500 after an early Thursday rally faded, with recent sharp selling still weighing on sentiment.
While a potential double bottom offers hope, traders await clearer confirmation before calling a sustained bullish shift.
Bitcoin is continuing to struggle with the idea of going higher, and it is worth noting that although we tried to rally early on Thursday, things have turned around, and it looks like the $92,500 level continues to be a bit of a barrier and a potential magnet for price at the same time. Bitcoin has recently sold off quite drastically, and I think this is something that you need to be cognizant of because on these bounces, although they may be strong and pick up a few thousand dollars pretty quickly, we still have a long way to go before the trend changes. We are in the midst of potentially forming a bit of a double bottom, so that obviously is a good sign.

But I think you've got a way to go before you can call this a bullish market. Bitcoin, of course, is pretty far out on the risk appetite spectrum. And there seems to be a lot of concern out there when it comes to risking a lot at the end of this year.

The $80,000 level has recently offered a massive floor in the market, so one would have to think that if we break down below there at all, things could get very ugly very quickly. To the upside, if we do break out and start rising, the 50-day EMA sits right around the $98,500 level. And of course, we have the $100,000 level sitting right above there.

This is an area that I think would be difficult to break above. And if we did, then obviously, I think a lot of things would change. Ultimately, though, this is a market that if you are bullish longer term, maybe you look at the pattern that we are in right now as potential accumulation. But I'm not looking for anything major at this point. I think a little bit of sideways action in confidence-building is probably the best thing that could happen to the Bitcoin market.#TrumpTariffs #BinanceAlphaAlert #CPIWatch #WriteToEarnUpgrade #USJobsData