On the 17th Beijing time, after rising to $96,600, $BTC plummeted again, once falling to $93,778.6, erasing all gains for the year. As of around 7 o'clock, Bitcoin fell over 1%, dropping below $95,000. Multiple cryptocurrency products followed suit. Coinglass shows that in the last 24 hours, over 150,000 people worldwide have been liquidated in the cryptocurrency market.
Recently, the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut in December have significantly cooled, leading to a decline in overall risk appetite in the United States.
According to data from CME's "FedWatch," cited by the Securities Times, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has fallen below 50%, now at 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining rates has risen to 55.6%. By January next year, the probability of keeping rates unchanged remains at 34.7%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 48.6%.
Reports from Caixin also pointed out that short-term interest rate futures indicate that the probability of the FOMC cutting rates on December 10 has dropped from last week's 67% to 47%. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the Fed will reference key data such as September employment and inflation before the December meeting, with the employment reports for October and November being particularly crucial.
Several institutions have clearly predicted that there will be no action in December. Both Bank of America and Nomura pointed out in their research reports that the Fed may maintain the current interest rates at that time. Additionally, Dallas Fed President Logan publicly stated on the 14th that he does not support another rate cut in December unless there is clear evidence of a decline in inflation. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Fed Governor Cook also expressed a cautious attitude towards further rate cuts.
$BTC The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 41st day! 💥 This is no small matter — the traditional financial system is experiencing a “breakdown horror story”! A $400 trillion SOFR contract mechanism has collapsed, and it turns out Wall Street's skyscraper is not made of steel and iron after all! 😏
At this moment, Bitcoin and Ethereum have made a dazzling appearance! ✨ Data shows that the price of BTC is surprisingly playing a “seesaw game” with the duration of the government shutdown, with a negative correlation of up to 0.4! The more chaotic it gets, the more appealing decentralized assets become; this plot is even more exciting than a Marvel movie! 🎭
Now BTC has pulled back to around 102k, don't panic! Institutional bigwigs are secretly rejoicing; this is clearly the calm before the storm, the crouching position before superheroes take off! 🦸♂️
Even cooler, the DeFi protocol Morpho has actually brought physical uranium onto the lending market! Yes, you heard that right, the uranium that can generate electricity and also make nuclear bombs! This marks the upgrade of the RWA narrative from “kids playing house” to “Avengers level”! 💫
A flood of traditional assets is crazily flowing into the decentralized credit market; this is not just a simple flow of funds, this is the “cosmic migration” of the financial world! 🌌
The U.S. CPI data will be released on Wednesday, and if inflation, the “old villain”, refuses to exit the stage, BTC is very likely to stage a “flying solo performance”, reminiscent of its triumphant return during the government shutdown in 2018! 🚀
$ETH $BNB $BTC The U.S. government shutdown drama comes to an end tonight! Global markets hold their breath waiting for the Senate's vote
Tonight, the world's attention is focused on the U.S. Senate—a crucial vote that will determine whether the U.S. government will "reopen" or continue to "stay shut."
This prolonged political drama finally reaches its grand finale. Due to the deadlock between the two parties in Congress over budget issues, some U.S. government departments have been forced to hit the "pause button," and now this farce is about to reveal its outcome.
Why is this vote so important?
In simple terms, this is the ultimate key to "unlocking" the U.S. government. If passed, the shuttered departments will immediately resume operations, and furloughed federal employees will be able to return to work and receive their pay. More importantly, the market's long-awaited "pill of reassurance" is finally about to land.
What impact does this have on ordinary people?
Don't underestimate this as merely a U.S. internal affair; its influence can instantly spread across the globe:
· ✅ If passed: Global stock markets, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets are likely to experience a wave of "celebratory trading," and your investment account may finally breathe a sigh of relief. · ❌ If rejected: Market uncertainty will continue to spread, and investors may tighten their purse strings, potentially shifting global capital flows towards conservatism.
This is not the first time the U.S. government has "shut down," but each time it causes a small to significant earthquake in the global market. The outcome of tonight's vote will directly determine whether we are to welcome a market frenzy or continue to endure this period of volatility.
In summary: Tonight, the hand votes of American politicians will stir the nerves of investors worldwide. This long-suspended "shoe" is finally about to drop; are you ready? #稳定币监管风暴 #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场回调 #币安HODLer空投SAPIEN #隐私币生态普涨