蟹老板的进击之路

This week, I tested a contract trading with a small fund starting at $500 to reach $10,000. Currently, the profits have already doubled. The strategy mainly focuses on capturing meme coins, avoiding chasing prices, and only doing ambush trades. Now, the market reacts to Trump's comments, and it tends to drop significantly. Meme coins have opened up low market cap trading opportunities. The leverage is not high; I only trade stable coins, and all trades generally have take-profit and stop-loss orders in place, so there's no risk of liquidation. I trade aggressively when the market gives opportunities and refrain from trading when it doesn't. For those who want to follow, there is a copy trading option on the homepage; just click to copy the trades. Even with a small starting fund, achieving the goal can be realized steadily!

$HYPER market's going crazy!

When the contract data around $CHIP is close to flat, especially above large m levels, it's highly likely to drop. This is because, from a market maker's perspective, pumping the price requires more capital, while dumping it only needs a click to sell 🤣. This signal still needs to be validated.

This $GENIUS has also been backed by yzi Labs. The washout happened on the day the contract launched. If we dip to around 0.55, I'm looking to re-enter the market 🤡.

There's definitely a lot of opportunities in the secondary market lately, but they're mainly on the contracts. For example, chasing longs on UP right when new listings drop is pretty much a sure thing. However, that’s not much different from just sitting on-chain. Back when the secondary market was sluggish, a 10% pump on UP would get dumped pretty quickly, but now at least UP and even the KRW pairs can rally over 20% and hold steady.

Other signals involve unusual movements in certain contract positions that lead to some moonshots, driving a few altcoins, but the volatility is generally pretty high. Those who keep a close eye on the data can make some gains, but how much you earn really depends on your guts.

The latest buzz is the new coins on Alpha. Looking at the investment background and the contract data movements, once it’s confirmed, we could see a few times the gains in just two or three days, just like with Chip.

So that's the scoop on the secondary market. The only bummer is that I missed the chance to catch the new coins on UP in the morning because I wasn't awake yet, and I missed it again in the afternoon. 😭 Just missed the opportunity to grab those new listings on UP.

New tokens can’t replicate $CHIP like $OPG CHIP, which is purely an investment by yzi Labs, like their own kid. You can keep an eye on alpha for new drops, but you need to look at the background. Even though OPG has backing from a16z, if the hype around CHIP doesn’t die down, it’ll be tough for $OPG to make a big move.

If the meme coin action on the Ethereum chain keeps up, then the secondary beneficiaries will be $PEPE

Recently, the new coins are quite powerful. They are either on Coinbase or on the Aster contract. The observed $CHIP and $OPG both have a certain profit effect. Let's see if the opg can be listed on the contract trading pair later, with everything focusing on short-term trading.

So what is the current situation with AAVE?

Overall, the utilization rate of funds in all its major trading markets has been pushed to 100%, with 3 billion USDT and 2 billion USDC stuck inside, and this money cannot be withdrawn or monetized at all right now.

Since the bad debts appeared in AAVE, Sun Yuchen, MEXC exchange, and those major investors immediately withdrew tens of billions of dollars from it.

This directly drained the liquidity of core assets like ETH, USDT, and USDC. Simply put, if you want to withdraw ETH from AAVE now, you simply cannot.

What’s more dangerous is that if the price of ETH drops next, or suddenly plummets, AAVE won't even be able to perform normal liquidations; ETH cannot be sold, and the borrowed debts can't be recovered, leading to an ever-increasing bad debt. As long as these markets remain stuck like this, the risk of AAVE facing a crisis and accumulating more bad debts will grow larger.

Fortunately, those holding ETH deposits can still go to trading platforms like Uniswap, suffer a slight loss on the price difference, and sell tokens like aETH and wETH.

Recently, a large amount of ETH has been seen being sold off because what everyone staked in AAVE before was mainly ETH, which also explains why ETH suddenly dropped after reaching a new high of 2463 on the 17th.

aave is very likely to recover this time, and it is also an opportunity.

The concentration of the top ten addresses on the chain $APR is 92%, which does not represent the control at 92%, it should be in the range of 80%-89%. If you ask me what the specific data is, I can't calculate it. The external airdrops, including the earlier ones, can only be provided with specific data by the project party 😂. Currently, there is a bit of a bullish feeling, consistent with the data previously selected, alpha+ contract trading pairs have been built a bit. If this week the altcoins do not connect to this sentiment, we basically have to say that this round of small altcoin season is about to end.

Since the explosion of $RAVE , combined with the theft incident, it has directly dragged the small mountain village season back into a downward trend. Bitcoin has set a new short-term low of 73669, and Ethereum has reached 2250. Currently, everything is in the repair stage.

At this stage, the core is that if you want to profit from contracts, you must distinguish the urgency of matters. Military escalation is the primary factor; as long as any information about military conflict emerges, the market will naturally favor bears. Conversely, it will favor bulls.

Before the market repairs to around 75000, it's best to act cautiously. Once it stabilizes at this position, it signifies the emergence of the next bullish market.

After the crash of $RAVE , the altcoins in the market have all seen declines. The reason for the drop is something everyone is aware of: the market is circulating rumors that the $RAVE team has been arrested, leading to capital outflow and most long positions being closed. Additionally, the bears have been watching closely, and even a bit of FUN news triggers their entry. After the collapse of RAVE, some market makers showed signs of being hesitant to act.

The reality is that no one has been arrested; rather, the market makers exceeded expectations. Don't complicate this situation, but the rumors of arrests have indeed affected the progress of some market makers in dealing with other altcoins, resulting in a somewhat retreating feeling in the altcoin market.

Isn't everyone saying that RAVE is going to be investigated, and you want to open a short position? Let me calculate something for you, the current funding rate is -1.5%, which means if you use $1000 as margin to open a 20x leverage, you will have to pay the longs $300 per hour! You read that right, it's $300. Many people are not liquidated due to price movements, but rather because of funding fees dragging them into liquidation, it's really harsh and they deserve to be investigated! $RAVE

$RAVE is not a Chinese stock, I don't believe it. This time drawing a low point of 8.88 means it's time to say goodbye? $RAVE

The rave seems to be collapsing, what are your orders? $RAVE

Currently concerned about $APR , the anomaly point is the oi data with a large order long position ratio of 65%. The trend also has a buying structure, but it hasn't broken out yet. It can be monitored, as it fits the characteristics of a speculative coin, and it might just surge👀

Currently, some low market cap altcoins that have gone through sharp declines or aggressive washouts are frequently experiencing significant surges. It does seem like the altcoin season is starting, but little do they know that a conspiracy is quietly emerging, as mainstream altcoins have hardly moved at all, with no signs of upward momentum. The current surges are from those that hold no value. I wonder if anyone has noticed a signal: recently, Binance has been delisting altcoins at an accelerating pace. This serves as a warning to some altcoins that if they do not provide liquidity or update their project progress, or if they lack prospects and do not make changes, the outcome will be delisting.

Meanwhile, some low market cap altcoins are having their last dance, evading delisting while conveniently cashing in on a wave.

The simplest logic is that when the operators control the market, why choose those that have previously faced sharp declines or deep washouts? It is simply because the market is light. Those who were previously trapped can now see a 2-3x surge at the current price level. Those who were trapped remain indifferent, as it is fundamentally meaningless; the difference between the original position value and the current position value is too large. Market makers can leverage small amounts of money to stir up new funds in the current market sentiment, and through contracts, it becomes very simple to harvest.

What we can still do now is not to be greedy, to dance with the operators, and only bet on long positions being initiated. We should not try to target short positions. In comparison, setting up long positions is relatively easier. If you want to ambush low-cap coins more safely, just buy spot directly; spot trading is also quite safe. However, if you don't buy long in spot trading, it is better to use a few hundred dollars to open low-leverage contracts. To buy spot, you need at least several thousand dollars; otherwise, it is meaningless.

This $GENIUS is definitely a major demon coin, trading in contracts. It had a slight surge on the same day and then started to crash, washing out to the contract opening price. I was the one who entered at that high point, feeling like a big loser. Observing the market control being relatively high that day, it's possible that the market makers might make a move. The open interest data indicated a lot of positions that day, and the big player likely couldn't push it up. In this kind of situation, where the market makers want to make money through high market control, they can only profit from the contract openings, so up to now, my position has returned to profit and closed.

I think for this coin to behave like $RAVE $SIREN , there will need to be a significant crash before the market makers start accumulating chips. Currently, this volatility is particularly large, so I'm temporarily not considering touching it and will wait for its accumulation structure to appear.

This week, two tokens belonging to the demon currency were caught, one is $BR , and the other is $POWER . Most of the analysis is based on the market trend to assess the accumulation structure, including the oi data combined to judge whether there is a probability of action. To be honest, no one can guarantee 100% that the demon currency will activate, because you don't know when the market makers will start. You can only use high-probability methods to increase confidence and mindset in holding positions. Regarding the views on demon currency, both power and BR had a sharp drop once, as well as RAVE. Currently, these market makers are basically looking for characteristics of alpha + contract trading pairs. As far as this signal is concerned, the demon currency market makers have not yet finished.

Additionally, ordi has been rising relatively high these past two days. If it can maintain this, there is a high probability that a group of market makers will look for pairs with both spot + contracts, but they are the kind that wash out particularly hard. Ordi started rising from around 2 after dropping from a high point. Of course, this type of demon currency is currently just speculation.

Furthermore, it has been found that the accumulation of alpha + contracts generally takes about half a month, while the accumulation time for spot + contract trading pairs is generally longer. This is related to market control, and all retail investors generally prefer trading alpha + contract trading pairs. This can be seen from the trading volume.

This time is really different, $POWER has started to break through, earlier there were too many bulls, the vehicle was too heavy, let's see if the institution has the intention to start, just stay in the vehicle.