蟹老板的进击之路
3.8k Posts
蟹老板的进击之路
迎接比特币最疯狂的牛市，公众号（进击的蟹老板之路）
Level 1 Creator
366 Following
14.2K+ Followers
16.5K Liked
1 Badges
Posts
All
Quotes
Videos
Live
Bear markets typically wrap up after a major institutional blow-up.
Right now, miners are really struggling to stay afloat, and within the investment firms, there's definitely a group that's already on the verge of capitulation, just putting on a brave face. As the tide slowly goes out, it’ll soon become clear who’s swimming naked and who can’t hang on any longer. $BTC
Right now, miners are really struggling to stay afloat, and within the investment firms, there's definitely a group that's already on the verge of capitulation, just putting on a brave face. As the tide slowly goes out, it’ll soon become clear who’s swimming naked and who can’t hang on any longer. $BTC
US stocks are up, Bitcoin isn't budging; when US stocks drop, Bitcoin panics and plummets.
Last night, Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 again, hitting a low around $59,000. It briefly bounced back in line with the weak US stock market, currently sitting back above $60,000. However, looking at the volume and price action, it's showing major weakness.
Institutional funds are continuously flowing out, and right now Bitcoin is under persistent pressure. $BTC
Last night, Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 again, hitting a low around $59,000. It briefly bounced back in line with the weak US stock market, currently sitting back above $60,000. However, looking at the volume and price action, it's showing major weakness.
Institutional funds are continuously flowing out, and right now Bitcoin is under persistent pressure. $BTC
Right now in the crypto scene, we've hit a price cycle low, and honestly, it just takes one black swan event to trigger a real reversal. $BTC
The employee who used to short ETH every time it pumped 3% has been laid off, the biggest bearish factor is out of the game! $ETH
The current market's ups and downs are primarily driven by expectations of interest rate hikes.
There are a few key economic data releases coming up that will directly impact whether or not rates will be hiked, and when. Here are some important dates to keep on your radar:
PCE data on June 25, non-farm payrolls on July 2, and CPI data on July 14.
These dates could very well trigger a market reversal, especially if prices are hovering around key support or resistance levels. When these heavyweight data releases drop, the market's direction will likely become clearer.
From the current situation, it's highly probable that we will see at least one rate hike before September. If the upcoming economic data turns out worse and the situation continues to deteriorate, we could see two hikes this year, or possibly even more.
In simple terms, keep an eye on those key dates and data for your trading strategy. $BTC
There are a few key economic data releases coming up that will directly impact whether or not rates will be hiked, and when. Here are some important dates to keep on your radar:
PCE data on June 25, non-farm payrolls on July 2, and CPI data on July 14.
These dates could very well trigger a market reversal, especially if prices are hovering around key support or resistance levels. When these heavyweight data releases drop, the market's direction will likely become clearer.
From the current situation, it's highly probable that we will see at least one rate hike before September. If the upcoming economic data turns out worse and the situation continues to deteriorate, we could see two hikes this year, or possibly even more.
In simple terms, keep an eye on those key dates and data for your trading strategy. $BTC
Based on past patterns, whenever international tensions rise and geopolitical conflicts escalate, oil and gold are guaranteed to soar. However, the current market is completely off-script; everyone has probably noticed that oil prices are in freefall. Even the positive news about key straits reopening for navigation can’t lift them, and gold has taken a nosedive – its traditional safe-haven value has completely evaporated.
The reason is quite simple: the ongoing geopolitical conflicts are cyclical, yielding no results and showing no end in sight, leaving a vacuum of certainty. Investors are too wary to flock to oil and gold for safety, directing their capital back into the USD instead. This is the core reason behind the continuous strength and upward trajectory of the USD index; you can clearly see on the charts that large funds are quietly propping up the dollar, sustaining its trend.
In this environment, Bitcoin needs no further elaboration. There’s absolutely no upward momentum in the short term; it can only languish in weak sideways consolidation. Don’t expect a massive bull run in the near future.
Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to market sentiment and liquidity among all investment vehicles. The Federal Reserve doesn’t even need to actually raise or lower interest rates; as long as the market remains in this chaotic, tumultuous, and uncertain state, even with no real actions from the Fed, Bitcoin's price will be continually suppressed and trend weakly.
Many are baffled as to why there’s a forceful effort to keep the USD strong right now. The underlying goals are quite clear: first, the Fed wants to maintain its independence and credibility, free from political interference from the White House, to assert its authority. Second, it aims to stabilize the USD's global dominance, ensuring that it is recognized as the safest asset worldwide.
Once this operation fully plays out and the market adapts to a strong dollar environment, the Fed's objectives will be met. It’s a given that the dollar will eventually weaken. When the dollar loosens and market liquidity opens up, that will be Bitcoin’s real chance to rebound and kick off a bull market.
To wrap it up, while the current market conditions are tough, we’ve already weathered more than half of the most challenging bear market phase. $BTC
The reason is quite simple: the ongoing geopolitical conflicts are cyclical, yielding no results and showing no end in sight, leaving a vacuum of certainty. Investors are too wary to flock to oil and gold for safety, directing their capital back into the USD instead. This is the core reason behind the continuous strength and upward trajectory of the USD index; you can clearly see on the charts that large funds are quietly propping up the dollar, sustaining its trend.
In this environment, Bitcoin needs no further elaboration. There’s absolutely no upward momentum in the short term; it can only languish in weak sideways consolidation. Don’t expect a massive bull run in the near future.
Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to market sentiment and liquidity among all investment vehicles. The Federal Reserve doesn’t even need to actually raise or lower interest rates; as long as the market remains in this chaotic, tumultuous, and uncertain state, even with no real actions from the Fed, Bitcoin's price will be continually suppressed and trend weakly.
Many are baffled as to why there’s a forceful effort to keep the USD strong right now. The underlying goals are quite clear: first, the Fed wants to maintain its independence and credibility, free from political interference from the White House, to assert its authority. Second, it aims to stabilize the USD's global dominance, ensuring that it is recognized as the safest asset worldwide.
Once this operation fully plays out and the market adapts to a strong dollar environment, the Fed's objectives will be met. It’s a given that the dollar will eventually weaken. When the dollar loosens and market liquidity opens up, that will be Bitcoin’s real chance to rebound and kick off a bull market.
To wrap it up, while the current market conditions are tough, we’ve already weathered more than half of the most challenging bear market phase. $BTC
The curse of Japan's rate hike remains unbroken, and what's scarier is that the Yanks are also set to raise rates $BTC
蟹老板的进击之路
·
--
The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates on June 16. Here’s the historical dip in Bitcoin following rate hikes:
Reference for the rate hike on 2026-06-16
Market pricing: 97% chance of a 25bp increase to 1.0%.
Historical average: Within 2–4 weeks post-rate hike, BTC typically starts reacting.
If BTC is currently around 60,000, based on historical dips, the potential price levels for Bitcoin are:
20% correction → $48,000
30% correction → $42,000
In the short term, on the 17th, Waller will be hosting the first Fed meeting, which is super crucial.
Reference for the rate hike on 2026-06-16
Market pricing: 97% chance of a 25bp increase to 1.0%.
Historical average: Within 2–4 weeks post-rate hike, BTC typically starts reacting.
If BTC is currently around 60,000, based on historical dips, the potential price levels for Bitcoin are:
20% correction → $48,000
30% correction → $42,000
In the short term, on the 17th, Waller will be hosting the first Fed meeting, which is super crucial.
MicroStrategy is gearing up to dump some coins again, Japan just finished raising rates, and Waller is hawkish as ever. Looks like Bitcoin is heading for the 5k range again $BTC
Verified
Keep an eye on the new Fed Chairman Waller's debut at the FOMC meeting. This session is set for June 16-17, with the final results dropping on the 18th Beijing time. Market expectations are above 98% that the Fed will hold rates steady this time, so the rates themselves aren't the main focus. The real game-changers are two things: the dot plot released at the meeting and Waller's statements.
It's worth noting Waller's unique style; he had publicly criticized the Fed's transparency before taking office, advocating for a reduced emphasis on the dot plot and scrapping the fixed press conferences. His speaking style and policy approach will differ significantly from his predecessor, making this meeting a key variable.
It's worth noting Waller's unique style; he had publicly criticized the Fed's transparency before taking office, advocating for a reduced emphasis on the dot plot and scrapping the fixed press conferences. His speaking style and policy approach will differ significantly from his predecessor, making this meeting a key variable.
The trend for $ROBO looks solid; if it can break through the hourly range, there's a lot of upside potential. However, it has been faked out multiple times. I'm hoping the market holds steady this time and shows some real gains.
Verified
Recently, MicroStrategy sold off 32 BTC, which caused a dip in the market. The official response is that this sell-off was just a test and aimed at optimizing tax-related issues, essentially wrapping up this selling operation.
However, this incident does nothing to help Bitcoin's price recover, and the test operation indicates that they will continue to offload Bitcoin in the future. Simply put, they won't just be buying in; they'll also be aggressively dumping Bitcoin to cash in on profits.
It’s not just MicroStrategy; BlackRock has also been consistently depositing 1,564 BTC onto the Coinbase platform. All signs point to institutions likely continuing their sell-offs.
Considering all these factors, there are basically no signs of a short-term recovery for Bitcoin, especially with Japan expected to raise interest rates mid-month, making it even harder for the market to bounce back. $BTC
However, this incident does nothing to help Bitcoin's price recover, and the test operation indicates that they will continue to offload Bitcoin in the future. Simply put, they won't just be buying in; they'll also be aggressively dumping Bitcoin to cash in on profits.
It’s not just MicroStrategy; BlackRock has also been consistently depositing 1,564 BTC onto the Coinbase platform. All signs point to institutions likely continuing their sell-offs.
Considering all these factors, there are basically no signs of a short-term recovery for Bitcoin, especially with Japan expected to raise interest rates mid-month, making it even harder for the market to bounce back. $BTC
Verified
The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates on June 16. Here’s the historical dip in Bitcoin following rate hikes:
Reference for the rate hike on 2026-06-16
Market pricing: 97% chance of a 25bp increase to 1.0%.
Historical average: Within 2–4 weeks post-rate hike, BTC typically starts reacting.
If BTC is currently around 60,000, based on historical dips, the potential price levels for Bitcoin are:
20% correction → $48,000
30% correction → $42,000
In the short term, on the 17th, Waller will be hosting the first Fed meeting, which is super crucial.
Reference for the rate hike on 2026-06-16
Market pricing: 97% chance of a 25bp increase to 1.0%.
Historical average: Within 2–4 weeks post-rate hike, BTC typically starts reacting.
If BTC is currently around 60,000, based on historical dips, the potential price levels for Bitcoin are:
20% correction → $48,000
30% correction → $42,000
In the short term, on the 17th, Waller will be hosting the first Fed meeting, which is super crucial.
Stuck and hopeless? How can retail traders deal with the ongoing market downturn?
Two tricks to solve it!
Are you also losing sleep over the recent market crash? Deeply trapped but unwilling to cut losses, every day you're self-soothing and trying to reconcile, but each glance at your account balance stabs like a knife?
The sudden drop is unpredictable, but the continuous decline is the market testing your mettle, the whales are honing your resolve, breaking down your psychological barriers. This leaves crypto enthusiasts in a state of constant anxiety, which severely impacts mental and physical health. Remember, your health is your capital; don't let your portfolio crash while you go down first. This is what we call beating the market!
So, traders need to stay positive and happy, maintaining a good mindset to face the market.
Here are two little methods that might brighten your mood:
Every exchange has a little eye icon next to the asset balance on the page. Click it, and you can hide your balance, making your losses invisible. This is what they call 'out of sight, out of mind', tackling the pain of seeing losses the moment you open your exchange.
Some friends might say, 'I can't feel good not seeing my money.' There's another trick: change the currency of your account to Vietnamese Dong. You’ll find your balance suddenly turns into millions! Just look at that long string of numbers; that should feel a lot better for your psyche!
A good mindset allows you to remain calm in crises. Let’s beat the market together!
Two tricks to solve it!
Are you also losing sleep over the recent market crash? Deeply trapped but unwilling to cut losses, every day you're self-soothing and trying to reconcile, but each glance at your account balance stabs like a knife?
The sudden drop is unpredictable, but the continuous decline is the market testing your mettle, the whales are honing your resolve, breaking down your psychological barriers. This leaves crypto enthusiasts in a state of constant anxiety, which severely impacts mental and physical health. Remember, your health is your capital; don't let your portfolio crash while you go down first. This is what we call beating the market!
So, traders need to stay positive and happy, maintaining a good mindset to face the market.
Here are two little methods that might brighten your mood:
Every exchange has a little eye icon next to the asset balance on the page. Click it, and you can hide your balance, making your losses invisible. This is what they call 'out of sight, out of mind', tackling the pain of seeing losses the moment you open your exchange.
Some friends might say, 'I can't feel good not seeing my money.' There's another trick: change the currency of your account to Vietnamese Dong. You’ll find your balance suddenly turns into millions! Just look at that long string of numbers; that should feel a lot better for your psyche!
A good mindset allows you to remain calm in crises. Let’s beat the market together!
Log in to explore more content