蟹老板的进击之路

After running through so many places, I found that the most dangerous place is among my own people.

Recently, the giant whales on the chain have been madly increasing their positions. It always feels like they know something we don't. Is there a schedule for the staking ETF? This can be tracked.

Now #DOYR actually has the qualification to go up to alpha, rushing up to 30 million in one night. Although it is not on the same level as the previous #4 meme, there have been very few reaching tens of millions since the National Day.

Next, don’t think too much; ambushing #DOYR is just betting on alpha expectations.
ca: 0x925c8ab7a9a8a148e87cd7f1ec7ecc3625864444

#SuccessAtOnce

This token must have surprises; it didn’t die last month, and there’s no reason not to speculate this month. The SuccessAtOnce community is waiting for New Year's Day and the blessings of the domestic Spring Festival.

This token has been called many times, with basic profits at 3-4x. If you don't want to risk, just play it safe.

These two are no problem.

Secondly, the following market trends still need the perspective of Ersheng. Cherish the BNB in hand; even if the perspective doesn’t come in immediately, you can still get on after M, depending on your own position management.

Which is more painful, selling too early or giving back? In principle, it’s a matter of position management.

Next, be aware of which level of narrative and how much market value at which level.

Binance is also about to choose the base to go up to alpha from the chain, any segment is just betting on alpha.

Bitcoin experienced a weak adjustment over the weekend, but the 4-hour level signals from last night are already quite clear, and it is expected to follow the 4-hour level trend. The resistance above the 4-hour level has not changed, still between 96000-98000, and we will see if it can break through further at that time.

Currently, there are no unified negative news on a macro level, and what follows is the positive news that needs to be realized, so I am optimistic about the rebound trend. However, whether it can reverse still needs observation. Although Wall Street has been shouting ATH, it is still necessary to view it rationally.

On the altcoin level, if the market continues to rise and rebound, the quality altcoins will also experience a significant rebound, such as hype, so it is important to pay close attention to this.

The most important thing this week - the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 3 AM this Thursday. Currently, the market consensus is a 25 basis point rate cut.

Confusing, I used to really enjoy watching his vlog
😓

It's Friday again, and the entire market this week has been quite stagnant, all waiting for news about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December. Prices have been calm, but underneath, everyone is quietly observing and preparing to take action.

Whether it's the U.S. stock market or Bitcoin, there's been only slight fluctuations back and forth these past few days, with no major movements. Even some data released yesterday didn't stir up much excitement; now everyone's attention is focused on the next interest rate cut, whether it will be 0.25% or if there could be an unexpected outcome. Everyone is uncertain.

It looks like this week will just pass quietly, and the key focus will be next week: the Federal Reserve will release its dot plot for interest rate forecasts, Chairman Powell will also give a speech, along with a series of economic data announcements.

At that time, the market may start to move, and opportunities will arise.

Sister's summary from this time in Dubai:

1. Binance's internal governance structure is bottom-up.

2. Palu is employee-led and does not oppose internal trial and error.

3. Commissions given will not be withdrawn; promoting Binance Square, hoping that KOLs in the square can accumulate useful content for people, will continue to develop content modules, focusing on niche areas and valuable information.

4. Emphasized multiple times that users are king. As long as users are satisfied, the product is only there to serve them; whether it is the first to do something is not important, will embrace new things based on user needs.

5. Whether to do business is decided based on ROI, feedback is welcome, the demands of large institutions can be met.

6. Joked about the mistake of 1011 in PR.

7. Carrying forward under pressure, after becoming CEO hopes to cultivate talent and partners.

8. Alpha was criticized during a 6-hour live stream, currently Alpha will upgrade and adapt strategies based on industry changes.

9. The value of counterfeit goods being zero is an error from AI translation, customer service is new and positions are publicly held in Binance Square. Only BNB and BTC, small coins are all airdrops. Listing is based on fundamentals (project/Founder/product is real), others depend on market sentiment. Investment carries risks.

10. Reports of shell trading are welcome, direct delisting will occur when encountered, Alpha's bottom-line projects are real, doing airdrops can get listed.

11. U.S. stocks represent user demand for wallets; product forms are immature and seeking better solutions.

12. The insurance fund suffered losses due to attacks from meme coins, strongly dislikes such behavior, will manage it very strictly in the future.

13. Binance's core entrepreneurship will actively private message users to find talent, hopes to help others succeed.

14. What to do next without projects, Binance does not lead the narrative (emphasized multiple times), only observes the wealth effect in the market, helps users benefit from VC dividends, seeks small but beautiful projects with business models to capture growth dividends, fears large VC coins, and is not interested in narratives.

15. The cycle theory still exists; rhythm and proportions may vary, but there will still be outside money buying BTC. The process of earning money becoming difficult during stable periods is also part of the cycle.

Bitcoin experienced a drop for a short time before the U.S. stock market opened yesterday, and then basically maintained a low level, slowly rising back a bit afterward, but the momentum is not strong. Now the overall environment no longer supports continuous panic selling; instead, various positive news is attracting a large amount of capital to buy in.

From the 4-hour perspective, there is a noticeable resistance in the range of $96,000 to $98,000.

Additionally, according to official news from Ethereum, the upgrade to the mainnet was completed at 5:49 AM today. This upgrade was carried out simultaneously on both the Ethereum consensus layer and execution layer, increasing the block Gas limit to 60 million, which is expected to reduce L2 fees by 40% to 60%.

After the upgrade news was released, Ethereum also rose nearly 5% to break through $3,200.

Regarding the upgrade, I believe this is all paving the way for future staking ETFs. The increase in GAS limit, along with the reduction in L2 fees, are all advantages. For significant price increases, the functionality of staking ETFs is needed.

U price officially dropped below 7

Bought some FIR, said there were unusual movements yesterday, and today it came to benefit. By the end of December, FIR is expected to distribute 15 million US dollars in music copyright revenue, which has real benefits in web2. The fundamentals are solid, and the trading volume has been very active recently. There have also been unusual movements in the lines, so I bought some positions to speculate.

However, speaking of which, after so much bad news has concentrated and come crashing down, BTC surprisingly hasn't fallen below the previous low point, which is quite resilient, but this is just one day's performance; we still need to see how it will move forward.

With the recent drop, voices are starting to emerge in the market wondering whether it will be like 2022, initiating a long and severe decline.

Personally, I have always leaned more towards a pattern of a quick drop followed by a slow rise, and I don't think the script of 2022 will be replayed next.

Although all we see right now are negative messages, the monetary easing we talked about earlier is still on the way.

For example, after the U.S. government shutdown ends, the Treasury General Account (TGA) will gradually release funds; this process does not take effect immediately and usually requires a few weeks to a month.

There may be interest rate cuts in December, and there are also expectations for rate cuts next year.

The Federal Reserve will stop reducing its balance sheet starting in December.

Moreover, the actual earnings situation of U.S. listed companies is not bad at all...

These factors seem not to support a long and deep bear market, but rather are more likely to correspond to a quick pullback or a decline that is not too deep.

And if we look beyond Bitcoin, take a look at Ethereum (from 4100 to 1300, then back to 4900) or SOL (from 295 to 95, then back to 254); they have actually completed a cycle of bull and bear this year.

So right now, whether the market is consolidating at the bottom or will break new lows still depends on the performance over the next few days.

Specifically:

BTC dropped significantly yesterday, briefly breaking the key support at 85k, but then it recovered. If it cannot stabilize at this position, it may test lower again.

ETH also saw a significant drop and is close to the previous low; if the rebound cannot exceed 2850, it may continue to decline, but if it tests the bottom again, quickly breaks down and then quickly recovers, that may present an opportunity to buy at the bottom.

The alpha sector has fluctuated greatly today, with no sharp drops, and it has even recovered. This clearly indicates that action is imminent; once enough shares are accumulated, there will be a surge. The AI + music sector in alpha can be considered a leader.

Let's keep an eye on it and monitor the official Twitter.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December has become a certainty.

The current market has no doubt about a 25 basis point cut.

The probability has now reached 86%, confirming a 25 basis point cut.

This rate cut can therefore be said to be a done deal.

While the Bank of Japan is raising interest rates, the Federal Reserve is cutting rates.

If Japan initiates rate hikes, it will create pressure on Bitcoin from multiple fronts including capital, interest rates, and market sentiment. Currently, the technical outlook has weakened, and if liquidity is further withdrawn, the risk of decline is indeed significant.

Pay attention to these key time points:

December 18-19: The Bank of Japan meets, which is the most critical observation window.

Mid-December: The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision.

January 2026: Japan is very likely to implement a second interest rate hike, with a high probability.

In simple terms, as long as we get through this most turbulent period in December, the price of Bitcoin may become much clearer.

In the end, newcomers see the price drop, while veterans focus on the trends behind the capital. Every major drop is actually accumulating energy for future rises, so the question is not whether Bitcoin will rise, but whether you can hold on until the next bull market arrives.

On the first day of December, Bitcoin experienced a waterfall washout, completely losing the gains from last week's warming trend in just a few hours.

The main reason is the strong statements made by the Bank of Japan's governor on the macro front, which heightened market expectations for interest rate hikes, causing U.S. stock index futures to drop, and naturally, the cryptocurrency market followed suit.

If the yen really raises interest rates, the previously popular strategy of borrowing yen to buy dollars for arbitrage could be disrupted, affecting global liquidity. From a price perspective, the main issue is that the monthly chart failed to break through a key position by the end of November, and coupled with the fact that U.S. market makers were on break last week, the market's trading depth was insufficient, so even a slight selling pressure caused the price to plummet.

This month is expected to be the last discussion point for interest rate cuts this year. From December to February next year, there might be a pause in rate cuts, meaning that after this month, there will be no expectations for rate cuts for at least two months. If there are no hot topics to attract funds during this period, it will be very difficult to maintain the warming trend.

This week there are also some data points, including the ADP employment data on Wednesday. The worse this data is, the more favorable it is for interest rate cut expectations. The impact of Friday's PCE price data on the market has diminished, along with the PMI data and Powell's speech, with the focus still on Powell's remarks.

December 1st, the waterfall washes the face, truly a warm-hearted month

Korean Upbit exchange confirms theft of 53 billion won, approximately over 30 million US dollars.

All stolen were altcoins, none were mainstream.

After all, Up is the tool for pumping altcoins; every altcoin that appears on Up is a doubling bullish candlestick.

Today is Thanksgiving, Americans will be on holiday for two days, plus the weekend, that's 4 days without being affected by the US stock market, relying solely on the funds within the cryptocurrency circle to support it.

Do you think it can hold up?

$btc