WindyTheTrader

📊 BTC End-of-Day Update 03/18

Today there has been a significant drop in the market after a tight sideways day, and the price of BTC has reached the 71.5k level as previously anticipated.

📌 This is a convergence area with many technical factors: Fibo 0.5 of the upward wave from 65.8k → 76k, EMA21, and RSI retesting the 50 zone on the daily frame.
➡️ In terms of structure, it temporarily maintains an upward structure.

⏱️ However, in the 4H frame, this downward wave appears quite strong and decisive with high volume. The likelihood of the Fibo 0.5 zone holding the price is low. The next potential area the price may reach is the demand zone on the daily frame at the 68k mark.

Trading scenarios:
📉 Scenario 1: Currently, the price has dropped with a strong leg down to the Fibo 0.5 price area; if the price has a short pause, you could wait for the price to break through the 70 mark to short scalp down to 68k.

📈 Scenario 2: Wait for the price to react at 68k because this is the demand zone on the daily frame; look for a reversal signal in the smaller frame to potentially long. The expected targets are 70.5k and 74k, and whether the price increases further on the daily frame needs to be monitored.

⚠️ Scenario 3: Daily frame reversal.

With the strong downward force in the 4H frame, it is possible that BTC has reached a maximum retracement and is preparing for a daily wave down below 60k.

$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@Chan Chảnh Choẹ

📊 BTC Market Update

Instead of reversing after the pinbar candle, BTC continues to rise strongly, breaking through the local peak of 74k, creating a structural break with a long-bodied candle, strong momentum, and above-average volume. The daily RSI is strong according to the upward structure.
📌 Thus, there is a solid basis to expect the bullish wave to continue. The 68k – 67k range will become a strong demand zone, and we can expect price support if BTC retraces.

Currently, BTC is starting to show its first adjustment signal after 9 consecutive days of increase. In the smaller frame, one can wait for the price to retrace to important areas or the demand zone to find long opportunities.

As for altcoins, can we expect a growth wave?
BTC.D is still moving sideways, Stable.d is in a downward structure on the daily frame; however, Others.D is also moving sideways, closely following the diagonal resistance trendline.
If capital flows into altcoins, the first clear sign will be Others.D breaking the downward trendline, at which point altcoins may recover strongly.

🎯 Trade Plan for BTC
Wait for the price to retrace to the nice area. Priority areas: 71k – 69k, 68k – 67k (demand zone)

$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@Chan Chảnh Choẹ

BTC just had a strong increase overnight before entering the Asian session with decent volume on the 4H frame, forming a fairly strong green daily candle and a weekly candle with little wicks. Is this a move to paint the chart by whales to push the buying FOMO? In terms of the RSI indicator on the daily frame, it is still quite strong, ema21 is trending upwards, temporarily supporting the upward direction. However, the 74k mark has not yet been broken, so this area remains an important resistance.

⏱️ In the 4H frame, the last bullish candle of the session had relatively good strength, so it’s not advisable to short right away. The upward wave structure is still intact, possibly nearing the end of wave 5 of the upward movement, so the termination signal is not yet clear.

Short-term liquidity is currently at 74k → the nearest resistance area is around the recent peak where sellers may continue to defend.

🎯 Trigger / Trade Idea
The current price area is likely to be a battleground between the two sides, so it is advisable not to rush, and to wait until after the Asian session for clearer price action.

Short setup: wait for the 4H frame to establish a clear peak confirming the end of the upward wave with supporting indicators.

Long setup: wait for a consolidation phase, gradually tightening around the 74k mark to build momentum and breakout with high volume, avoiding a fake breakout.

$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@Chan Chảnh Choẹ

📊 Analysis of BTC before entering the new week
📅 Weekly frame (W)
If there are no major fluctuations by the end of Sunday, BTC will close the weekly candle in green with a somewhat long upper wick, RSI recovering from the oversold zone, average volume
➡️ If looking at the current W candle, it seems that the price will increase a bit more in line with the upward trend.
🔎 Looking back at a similar time when RSI was oversold on the latest weekly frame in June 2022: At that time, BTC had a slight recovery but it was not significant, then it still dropped to create a lower bottom and showed positive divergence, this point should be noted.

📅 Daily frame (D)
Moving to the daily candle, the series of small body candles indicates a lack of decisiveness from the buyers. Meanwhile, the sellers are waiting to sell ➡️ This shows a different picture from the long-bodied green W candle.

🔮 Scenario for next week
Due to the last 2 days of the weekend not having much volatility, currently, we can follow 2 scenarios:

📉 Bearish scenario (prioritized)
The price will recover to test the 74k zone and then drop to the 69k zone.

📈 Bullish scenario
The price will recover to test the 74k but will form a consolidation zone at this price mark to gain momentum for a breakout since it was previously strongly rejected.
➡️ If the price consolidates well in a smaller frame, opportunities for a long position can be sought 🚀

$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@Chan Chảnh Choẹ

📊 BTC Market Update

📅 Daily Frame (D)

BTC closed the daily candle with a very long pinbar candle as it touched the 74k mark, confirming a strong rejection price area 🔻
➡️ The buyers will temporarily not be able to overcome this frontline of the sellers.
After a day of strong volatility, the market is likely to cool down and may sideway lightly into the weekend.
📉 The RSI on the daily frame shows signs of peaking; it may take 1–2 days to intersect the moving average and provide the next trend signal.
⚠️ The worst-case scenario is that BTC will start to decline from this price mark, and the RSI will drop into the oversold region once again, creating a divergence signal, with the price falling below the 59k8 mark.

⏱️ Let's take a look at the 4h frame:
📉 The price has dropped to the EMA21 and is temporarily maintained at this mark.
Although strongly rejected, it has not completely shifted to a bearish structure; the sellers have also not temporarily increased their selling pressure.
➡️ Therefore, the price has a chance to rebound slightly to test the 72k to 74k area.
👉 If signs of a lower peak appear, then short to the 67k mark.

📈 Long Scenario
The buyers need to hold the 69k mark and accumulate momentum around this level.
➡️ If accumulation is good enough, there may be a force to test the 74k area 🚀

📊 Next week is likely to continue to be a week of high volatility.
$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@Chan Chảnh Choẹ

📊 BTC — Market update
🚀 Thus, BTC has followed the upward scenario from the 69k area and consolidated close to the diagonal trend line, with a slight upward wave at the beginning of June 13.
If this setup is utilized in the 1H timeframe, a 3R profit could be achieved at the beginning of the day. 💰

📅 Daily overview (D)
BTC on the daily chart closed with a green hammer candle with lower volume than average, continuing to support the short-term upward trend. The next level to watch is 72k7, where the price was previously rejected.

➡️ This will continue to be the next resistance level that may cause the price to continue consolidating in the smaller timeframe. For now, all indicators are showing signs of supporting the upward direction.

🌍 Macro indicators
📊 BTC.D is temporarily sideways with small candles, but in the 4h timeframe, it shows a picture supporting the upward trend with doji candles closing above EMA21.
📉 STABLE.D is similar to BTC but in the opposite direction, showing clearer signs of decline → supporting the upward trend on the daily timeframe.
📉 Others.D shows weak strength, sideways for many days, with indicators in a balanced area showing no clear trend.
➡️ The money has not yet flowed into altcoins, so a strong enough upward wave has not been created.

🔮 Scenario for today
🚀 Bullish scenario:
At the beginning of the Asian session, the price has risen significantly, and RSI is overbought in the 1h timeframe, so it may be wise to wait for the price to approach the nearest peak and create a consolidation area. If price action supports the upward direction 👉 It may be possible to long up and expect to reach the price range of 78k – 80k.

📉 Bearish scenario: If momentum weakens and signs of reversal appear. It may be possible to short down to the previous consolidation area at 70k.
$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@Chan Chảnh Choẹ

📊 BTC — Market Update
📅 Daily Frame (D)
The daily frame for BTC closed as a green doji candle, with volume decreasing compared to the previous day, indicating hesitation from both selling and buying sides ⚖️
Although the daily price remains above the EMA21 line, the RSI around the 50 mark also shows an unclear trend on the daily frame.
⏱️ Smaller Frame (4H – 1H)
On the 4H and 1H frames, BTC has created a lower peak. The large green candles are all upper wicks, indicating more participation from the selling side. However, the selling pressure is not very convincing.
📌 The current price level of 69k still acts as a support for BTC's price.
The RSI on the 1H frame shows signs of weakness as it has dropped below 50. If BTC clearly breaks this level, it may return to a downtrend, with the next level potentially around 67k. After that, we will wait to see if BTC accumulates at this price level before deciding on the next direction.

🔮 Possible Scenarios
🔻 Scenario 1: Break support at 69k, wait for the price to clearly break below 69k with clear price action confirming the bearish structure on H1, at which point one could look to short at the 70k price level expecting a target down to 67k.

⏳ Scenario 2: Price goes straight to 67k and waits for clear price action here before deciding further.

🚀 Scenario 3: Another scenario could occur where the price finds good support at 69k and returns to the 70k level, then continues to accumulate to break the downward trendline, at which point one could expect another upward wave.
$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@Chan Chảnh Choẹ

📅 Daily Frame (D)
BTC daily frame closed with a decent green candle but has a long upper wick indicating the participation of the selling side. At this moment, BTC price is still in a sideways trend, not leaning towards either side.
- Currently, the closing price remains above EMA21, with decent volume.
- The RSI signal is 50:50, it may go sideways for a while and then bounce back or this could be a resistance point before dropping further.

⏱️ 4H Frame
In the 4h frame, the price reacts at the 72k zone — a confluence of many technical factors. For now, the price remains above EMA21 with low volume red candles showing selling participation but not too strong yet.

⏱️ 1H Frame
Moving to the 1h frame, the structure has shown the first sign of a reversal but is still not strong enough with signals: selling volume is not large, the downtrend structure is not clear, and has not formed an imbalance, RSI is still above 50, and the price is just moving sideways below EMA21.

➡️ At this point, there could still be a scenario for H1 to increase by one more wave.

🧭 Action regarding BTC

📌 For the short side: Wait for a clear signal to form a third peak that is lower to confirm the downtrend structure in H1 first.

📌 For the long side: At this moment, it will be a bit risky, need to wait for signs of BTC accumulating near the 72k4 peak zone, then we can expect a breakout 🚀
$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@Chan Chảnh Choẹ

After decreasing for 4 consecutive days and dropping below the 66k2 mark, BTC experienced a day of growth again with a surge in volume and a engulfing candle indicating that buying pressure has returned.
Although during the day, in the smaller 1H timeframe, the price climbed slowly with many ups and downs causing much suspicion and hesitation.
Currently, the price has increased significantly and returned to the 71 mark, where it starts to approach the local peak around the 74k area which may react as the 1H RSI has also begun to show overbought conditions.
There may be a correction when the price reaches this mark to establish a sustainable growth trend.
The next scenario is to observe the price action at 72k to see how BTC reacts to this area. If BTC does not react strongly and creates a sideways region around this mark, it is likely that BTC will continue to rise, with the target area of 78k being activated again.
If BTC sets a lower peak and corrects, then observe the 69k area to maintain stability; this is the area that needs to be upheld.

The next action may be to look for a short scalp first, waiting for the market to show signs of accumulation before seeking further long opportunities.

BTC in the W frame closed a green pinbar candle with very long wicks, the efforts of the buyers have been completely absorbed by the sellers with 4 consecutive days of decline bringing the price back to the 66k level, returning to the previous accumulation zone.
The 66k price level has become a very important support level that upholds the stronghold for the buyers. In the D frame, BTC closed a small red candle with little lower wick and increased volume indicating stronger participation in the selling phase. The closing price is below ema21,
at this moment the downward trend may have a higher probability, the RSI index shows that the signal line touches the average line, although there has been a signal to bounce back, but the moment the RSI touches the 50 line is also the time to pay attention,
If today closes a nice green candle, then we can expect a short wave increase in the smaller frame.
Looking at the 4h frame, we can see that the price has created a breakout structure upwards and the RSI is down so deeply that the possibility of the 4h wave has shifted to a downward trend.
For long positions, we can long scalp up to the 69k area, or patiently wait for this area to short
$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@Chan Chảnh Choẹ

📊 BTC — Market Update

📅 Daily Frame (D)
Looking at the D frame, BTC has dropped for 3 consecutive days and the volume has gradually decreased on the 7th day, creating a small body candle which is understandable. The closing price is below the lowest level of the green candle from 4 days ago and is under the EMA21.
➡️ This indicates that the buyers seem to be cautious and are not participating in supporting the price.

⏱️ 4H Frame
On the 4H frame, the price has reached the demand zone and is moving sideways.
However, the only detail supporting the upward direction at this moment is the temporarily unbroken upward structure; besides that, the indicators still do not support the upward direction.

📌 Trading Plan remains the same:
Long: If you want to buy, you need to wait for the price to accumulate and create a reversal structure in a smaller frame.
Short: Wait for the price to retrace to the 70k6 mark or break through the 66k zone.

🌍 Market Context

In the current global context, investor sentiment is highly influenced; short-term trading will be safer than having high expectations and taking risks.

$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@chanchan147

📊 BTC — Price action update
📅 Daily frame (D)
BTC on the daily frame continues to close red candles, nearly returning to the entire green candle from 2 days ago. / Although it remains in the scenario of a correct retest of the previous accumulation zone, the candle is quite clearly below EMA21 with a short lower wick, not showing any efforts from buyers at this price level.

⚠️ At this point, the scenario of continued increase needs to be reconsidered and more caution is required; we need to wait for one more cycle.

⏱️ 4H frame
In the 4H frame, the price continues to fluctuate strongly during the US session, reaching the demand zone of the previous leg's increase. The upward structure has not been broken; temporarily, the price range of 66k – 68k will be the support zone for BTC.
👀 We need to observe price action in this area today as well.

In the current context, we should also prepare for a short scenario. The price has decreased significantly after one day; we need to wait for a pullback to the key zones.

💰 Cash flow perspective (Dominance & Macro)
Other macro indicators: 📊 USDT.D has rebounded quite well, but the 4H frame is still in a downward structure, with the price pulling back to the supply zone. We can continue to observe throughout the day because the probability of the market reversing exists.
Meanwhile, Others.D has similar price action.

➡️ Therefore, if cash flow returns to the market, BTC and top altcoins are likely to be favored more.

🧭 Conclusion
📌 If you want to long, wait for re-accumulation at the 66k – 68k zone; if this zone is breached, change the scenario.

📌 If you want to short, wait for a pullback to the 70k zone.
$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@Chan Chảnh Choẹ

BTC in the daily frame shows a small red candle with average volume indicating a valid correction
Nothing unusual yet, looking down at the 4-hour frame, we can see the price has reached the previously determined area at the price level of 70k5 and has shown the first reaction
At this point, we can start observing the smaller frame to look for a price action reversal to the upside and continue entering orders according to the bullish scenario
The 1H frame seems a bit noisy right now and the indicators are not supportive, we need to be patient and wait for clearer signals
$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@Chan Chảnh Choẹ

📊 BTC — Confirm short-term trend

🚀 Breakout pattern
Thus, BTC has answered the short-term trend by breaking through the triangle pattern with a strong long green candle + outstanding volume, RSI piercing through the 50 zone
🎯 The next target could be the price range of 78k ~ 80k where the convergence of: Fibo 0.5, 1 small FVG daily frame, Psychological price zone with round numbers
➡️ Thus, to align with the trend, the long position may have a higher probability.

⚠️ However, the market always has probabilities, and one needs to be flexible when the market shows unusual signs.

💰 Money flow perspective (Dominance): there is a special point where BTC.D surged, while USDT.D representing stable coins decreased; however, the .D index of other coins, especially Other.D, decreased significantly.
➡️ Money is strongly concentrated on BTC to push the price up. Altcoins may increase in the same direction, but the percentage increase is not strong yet.

👉 Therefore, for now, do not expect too much from altcoins until BTC sideways and money flow circulates back into altcoins.

🧭 Short-term plan
Wait for the price to pull back or create a sideways price range and establish a rising structure in the small frame (4h to 1h) then long up with reasonable expectations.

$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@chanchan147

📊 Update on BTC movements
🔺 Overview of price action
Thus, BTC is still following the scenario of gradually compressing within the triangle.
Right after a green D candle touches the upper boundary of the triangle while also being EMA21, the price goes down at the beginning of the day in the smaller 4H frame slowly but strongly increases towards the end of the day
➡️ Indicates that the level of contention remains quite strong within the range of the triangle. The result is that the 1D candle is a red hammer candle returning to close near EMA21 in the D frame, the compression is pushed close to the upper boundary of the triangle pattern
❓ Will there be a breakout upwards?

⏱️ 4H frame perspective
In the 4H frame, the price action can be clearly seen retesting the accumulation area within the range after creating a BOS. The buying force is also slightly higher than the selling force. However, the last 4H candle before the close of the daily session shows hesitation, with a small volume doji candle.

Possible scenarios that could happen now
🟢 Scenario 1: Sideways to build momentum for a breakout
Price moves sideways in a smaller frame (4H, 1H) within the range of 68k – 69k to build momentum for a breakout. When the price action breaks clearly with large volume, one can expect a short-term upward wave to 78k 🚀

🔴 Scenario 2: Reversal downwards
Price reverses and goes down to test the lower boundary of the triangle pattern 🔻
$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@chanchan147

📅 Daily frame (D)

📈 Thus, BTC in the daily frame temporarily chooses an upward direction with a fairly strong green candle. The price reacts right at the 70k mark and holds the closing price right at EMA21. Volume is relatively stable. RSI is also approaching the 50 zone while MACD is also moving towards the 0 zone.

⚠️ The possibility at this zone will also have many obstacles for the continued upward trend with many factors combined together.

⏱️ 4H small frame
For the small 4h frame, starting the American session last night, the market has had a fairly strong increase.

🚀 BTC increased from 65k to 69k7 with a powerful green candle, all indicators signal a strong increase.

Possible scenarios that may occur next

🟢 Scenario 1: Continue to rise

The price continues to rise according to the 4h frame showing strong upward momentum; however, the 70k zone is a confluence of many important factors:
🔺 the upper edge of the triangle
📉 EMA21 daily frame
🧠 Psychological price level

➡️ So there is a possibility of accumulation in the frame to gain momentum for further increase. If the 4h frame slightly declines with gradually smaller volume and creates small-bodied candles, with lower wicks 👉 There is a possibility that this is a sign of preparing for a continuation upward and breaking the triangle pattern.

🟡 Scenario 2: Return to range
The price returns within the range or has a fake breakout before returning to the range.

⏱️ Larger frame perspective
Regarding the larger frame, if today’s daily candle closes above the 70k mark with high volume confirmed, then BTC is likely to recover to 78k. If not, continue to observe price action within the range: 63k – 70k

$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@Chan Chảnh Choẹ

BTC on the W timeframe is forming a bearish flag pattern.

The RSI on the W timeframe has entered the oversold zone for the first time in many years.

=> It is difficult to expect a long-term upward trend; the recovery potential for BTC is relatively low. A consolidation phase is needed before recovery can take place, similar to the phase in July 2021 when the RSI dropped below 30.

The 3D timeframe clearly shows the bearish flag pattern; therefore, we need to wait for a clear price action when the price approaches the end of the symmetrical triangle pattern. It may require another 1 or 2 3D candles for the market to decide its direction.

Thus, this week is likely to be a sideways week as BTC represents the market and gradually approaches the end of the triangle pattern.

Scenario 1, high probability: In a few days when the chart gets close to the end of the triangle, it will continue to decline following the bearish triangle flag pattern while creating a lower bottom possibly combined with a bullish divergence in RSI and continue to enter a sideways phase. The target price is the psychological level of 50k.

Scenario 2: If the price recovers and breaks the triangular flag pattern, the price zone of 66k will turn into a support area. At that point, BTC may recover to the price range of 75k ~ 78k. After that, the main trend on the W timeframe will revert to a downward trend.

=> The price levels of 63k and 68k are two key levels to pay attention to in order to capture BTC's price action, hence deciding the direction for the entire market.

In the smaller 4H timeframe, the price is tightly sideways; the chart and indicators like RSI are all in the neutral zone, so the trend is unclear. Trade cautiously and manage your capital effectively in the coming days.

$BTC
#FromDustWeArise
@chanchan147