爆仓洲际导弹

The $Aif that hasn't launched yet,
has already been hyped in many groups as the "next myth".

The most dangerous thing at this time is not the project itself,
but our own imagination:

Imagining a tenfold return as soon as it launches;

Imagining that this time I will definitely catch the rhythm;

Imagining that others can't understand, and only I am the "prophet".

The true "anti-liquidation mindset"
is to think clearly ahead of time—
if on the launch day it shows the worst performance, can I handle it?
#Aif

Replace "Trading Weekly Report" with emotional monitoring

Instead of being led by the five-minute candlestick every day, it’s better to do a serious "Trading Weekly Report" just once a week.

The weekly report can include:

Total R value for this week: is it positive or negative?

What common points do the top 3 profitable trades share?

In the 3 trades with the most loss, is there a recurring mistake?

What type of mistake should you intentionally reduce next week?

If you can persist for 4 weeks, you will see:
Your trading decisions will start to become increasingly "calm",
Because you no longer only remember those extreme big gains/losses, but rather see the performance of the whole system.

To win in trading, it’s never about one or two days, but rather a whole cycle.
#系统优化

How to determine whether a strategy is reliable using the "sample size"

Do you think a strategy can be concluded after testing 5 times?
In the highly volatile and noisy cryptocurrency market, I generally believe that:

Without 50 to 100 samples, the conclusion of the strategy should be questioned.

Simple suggestions:
1) Start with a small position or a simulation to run samples, rather than directly investing real money with a large position;
2) Record each trade's: entry conditions, exit conditions, profit and loss R value, holding time;
3) After reaching 50 or 100 samples, evaluate overall performance instead of getting hung up on one or two “particularly outrageous examples.”

Remember:
There will always be “peculiar market trends”,
but what we want to use is the "statistical positive expectation," not just a story that happened to be right this time.
#样本量 #策略回测思维

Record "Storm Days": Extreme Market Conditions Need to be Counted Separately

In the cryptocurrency market, there are some days that are "abnormal":
sharp rises, sharp falls, spikes, consecutive liquidations... I call these days "Storm Days".

My habit is:
1) To mark this day as a "Storm Day" on the calendar afterwards;
2) To count separately: the trading performance on storm days compared to ordinary days;
3) To write a set of specific rules for storm days, such as:

Only reducing positions, not increasing positions

Halving the position

Only doing very short-term trades, or simply not trading at all

The reason for this is simple:
Data from extreme market conditions should not be mixed with regular market conditions.
Only by looking at storm days separately can you know if your true failures really happen on these days.

#极端行情 #风暴日管理

How I Use Simple "Condition Triggers" to Avoid Emotional Trading

Many trading software programs support: reminding/triggering only when the price reaches a certain level.

My approach:
1) Pre-draw key price levels: support/resistance/breakout points;
2) Set reminders: take a look when the price reaches, ignore if it doesn't;
3) Only make decisions when the reminder goes off, and do not monitor the market at other times.

This approach has several benefits:

Avoid random trades due to boredom;

Keep your mind focused on "key price levels" rather than every fluctuation;

Turn trading from "possibly happening at any time" into "only entering the decision-making process after a trigger".

Many so-called "itchy hands" are essentially —
You expose yourself to too many unnecessary price fluctuations.
#条件单 #减少噪音

Use 'R Value' to unify your risk language

Many people, when discussing trading, only say 'made 200U, lost 500U', but this is not helpful for strategy optimization.
I prefer to use 'R Value' to measure:

1R = the maximum planned loss for this trade;

Stop loss hit = -1R;

Profit 3 times stop loss = +3R.

By compiling this data, you can see:

What is the average profit R value?

What is the average loss R value?

Is the total R value for the month positive or negative?

As long as you achieve:

The average profit R value is significantly higher than the average loss R value,
even if the win rate is average, your system still has the potential for positive expected returns.

This is 'using a unified unit to manage all trades'.
#ProfitLossRatio #RValueManagement

I label every transaction

If you start labeling every transaction from today, your account will begin to become "analyzable".

Examples of labels I often use:

Signal source: trend breakthrough / range oscillation / news-driven / sentiment trades

Direction: with the trend / against the trend

Mindset: within plan / spontaneous

Result: normal stop loss / early stop loss / take profit / turn a loss into a profit

Statistics once a month:

Which type of signal has the highest win rate?

Which type of trades always lag behind?

What percentage of trades are sentiment trades?

You will find that:
What really destroys you is often a few “junk labels”; as long as you delete them, your overall performance will immediately improve.
#量化思维 #交易打标签

Today's hot topic on Binance Square #加密市场回调 actually reflects a normal correction after a rapid surge. Bitcoin has seen an expanded short-term decline after reaching new highs, leading to a collective drop in Ethereum and mainstream altcoins, with the overall market capitalization shrinking significantly in a short period. Leveraged funds have been concentrated and liquidated, and sentiment has quickly shifted from 'only talking about the bull market' to 'first protect profits'.
The reasons for this round of correction are roughly threefold: first, the macro environment has turned cautious, with global risk assets generally under pressure and funds retreating from high-risk markets; second, the previous gains were too large, with technical indicators clearly showing overbought conditions, prompting some institutions to take profits at high levels and actively create a 'healthy reshuffle'; third, leverage in the futures market has accumulated over a long period, and once prices turn, it can amplify declines, triggering a chain of liquidations and further exacerbating volatility.
For ordinary investors, the more important question is not 'why is the market falling', but 'what should I do'. If you have a long-term positive outlook and reasonable positions, such 10%-30% fluctuations are mostly just a 'half-time break' in a bull market; but if you are fully invested and frequently chasing highs and cutting losses, each correction can turn into a disaster for your account.
A correction is not the end of a bull market, but rather a process of chip turnover. Whether one can hold onto chips and optimize the holding structure during fluctuations is more important than staring at the screen watching K-lines.

【Major Positive News】
In the latest congressional hearing, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly stated that the Federal Reserve does not oppose U.S. banks providing services to cryptocurrency companies and investors, as long as they comply with existing risk management and consumer protection requirements. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has removed "reputational risk" from the bank regulatory manual, reducing the space for outright rejection of crypto business due to "image issues".
This means:
Compliant banks can more boldly provide accounts, clearing, and custody services for exchanges, custodians, funds, etc.;
The long-standing pressure of "de-banking" on the crypto industry is expected to ease, further connecting traditional finance with the crypto world;
The compliant channels for institutional funds entering the crypto market are being formally recognized, which is a medium to long-term positive for the adoption and liquidity of mainstream assets like Bitcoin.
The regulatory authorities have not given a "red light" to crypto but instead have provided a signal of "what can be done" after clarifying the rules. Do you think this is one of the key catalysts for the next round of market trends?

If most public chains are still 'grabbing topics', Injective has already begun to speak with products and structured layouts. With the native EVM about to launch, developers will be able to build high-performance, cross-chain DeFi applications in a familiar Ethereum-compatible environment. Currently, over 40 dApps and infrastructure projects are preparing to join, injecting liquidity, tools, and user entry points into the Injective ecosystem, accelerating its development into a professional-grade on-chain financial foundation.

What is even more intriguing is the signals from the funding side. NYSE-listed company Pineapple Financial announced it would invest $100 million in INJ through a systematic investment in the open market, and an Injective-related ETF is also about to open to U.S. market investors. The simultaneous arrival of institutional funds and compliance tools increases INJ's buying interest and depth, while also indicating that traditional capital markets are beginning to acknowledge the growth potential of this emerging public chain.

In the RWA direction, Injective has turned the narrative into reality: moving assets such as stocks, gold, foreign exchange, and digital forms of government bonds onto the chain, and has already supported direct trading of assets like Nvidia on-chain. Users can access real asset targets within the DeFi system while enjoying advantages such as transparency of on-chain assets, rapid settlement, and strong composability.

While many projects in the industry are still pursuing short-term 'hype indicators', Injective's path leans more towards 'infrastructure engineering': slowly building protocols, liquidity, and asset bridges. What it is genuinely trying to capture is the underlying discourse power of the next-generation financial system, rather than a short-term story of ups and downs.

The ideal entry points for BTC are in the range of 85000/83000, suitable for those with patience for mid to long-term spot trading in batches.
This range is considered a significant turning point, with strong support below and resistance above!
Therefore, you can enter the first batch of positions, buy on dips, and add on right-side reversal signals as well, without needing to rush; it can basically be done with ease. If it breaks below strong support, just relax. $BTC

The hallmark of mature trading: it's not about knowing how to buy and sell, but learning these two types of restraint!
Why do many traders keep losing money? It's not because their skills are lacking, but because they don't understand the two most valuable words in trading—restraint. The people who can truly survive in the market are those who make money with these two 'counterintuitive' abilities.
1. Restrain frequent trading: the truth that being too active leads to losses
90% of retail investors fall into the trap of being 'itchy':
• 80% of those who trade more than 3 times a day are losing money—transaction fees eat up 20% of the principal, and they are repeatedly harvested by the market;
• When a certain asset moves by 1%, they want to trade, resulting in being shaken out in 7 out of 10 trades, missing the next 10% of the main upward trend.
In simple terms, frequent trading is investing with a 'gambling mindset', thinking that 'the more you do, the more you earn', but forgetting that the essence of trading is 'waiting for opportunities', not 'finding opportunities'.
2. Restrain the mindset of 'proving oneself': the more you want to recover losses, the more you get trapped
Too many people fall into a vicious cycle after losing money:
• When holding a position, they think 'I can't believe it won't rise', resulting in small losses turning into large losses;
• Just as they break even, they rush to increase their position, wanting to prove 'I can earn it back', only to step into a new pit.
There was a trader who, after losing 30%, practiced with a demo account for 3 months and found that 60% of their live trades were 'to prove they were right', rather than actual trading signals.
3. The trial-and-error rule of mature traders: exchange 'low cost' for experience
Trial and error does not necessarily mean using real money to withstand:
• Practice on a demo account: zero cost to test strategies, a trader tested their strategy 200 times on a demo account and found that their moving average strategy failed in a volatile market;
• 1% position for trial and error: with a principal of 100,000, only use 1,000 each time, losing it does not affect their mindset, but can verify the genuine win rate of the strategy;
• Observing empty positions: recording the trends of 3 assets each week, not trading can also cultivate market feel, which is 10 times better than blind trading.

It's late at night.
I'm starting to reflect again and feeling dissatisfied with myself.
Two months of consecutive losses have made me doubt myself.
I actually know what to do in many situations,
but when the time comes, I still can't do it.
At first, I wrote a few things just to give myself an outlet.
As a result, more and more people started to read it,
these words began to gain meaning, be interpreted, and be anticipated.
I got caught up in it too.
To be honest, making decisions has never been easy.
Especially when position management isn't done well,
just a slight shake in the market throws my heart into chaos,
because I'm using money that's not within my understanding.
I've won against the market a few times based on feelings,
that exhilarating feeling of being half a step ahead of the market can be addictive.
But precisely because of those few wins,
it made me start to fantasize about winning like this all the time.
Perhaps true maturity is learning to be patient,
not chasing, not gambling, not moving recklessly.
I don't know when my next opportunity will come,
but I will wait.
No rush.
After all, many times, waiting is harder than doing.