Here is the forecast for today for AVAX, based on the current technical state and market signals. This is not financial advice — just probable scenarios.
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Current state and key levels
The price of AVAX is currently ≈ 34.5-35.6 USD, with a good trading volume.
Main support is around 32.8 USD — if the price falls below, it may trigger further declines.
Here are my key level assessments for BTC and XRP, where a 'dump' may occur before Powell's speech — that is, where the activity of stop loss liquidators / strong orders is likely to trigger:
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Bitcoin (BTC)
Key support levels:
~$116,000 — the zone that has already provided support several times, and where stop losses may be located 'in case of a drop'
Here is a budget analysis of key levels for AVAX ahead of Powell's speech — where there may be increased risk of a price 'dump', and where probable support or a rebound may occur.
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Current situation
AVAX is currently trading at approximately $29.7–30.1 USDT.
Technical indicators are generally favorable: Bitget gives a 'Strong Buy' rating on the daily chart.
The price made a strong upward spike from ~$28.5 to $31.25 (about +9%), and is currently undergoing a pullback.
At the peak ($31.259), a local maximum formed and there have already been several consecutive red candles → a signal of local correction.
RSI (6) is currently around 45 – meaning there is no longer overbought, but the strength of buyers has decreased.
MACD has just crossed the zero zone downwards, which may indicate a transition into the correction phase.
📊 Conclusions:
If the price holds above 30.20–30.30, then this is just a short pullback and there may be another test of the level $31.0–31.3.
However, if they break down below $30.20, then the road may open up to $29.6 and even $29.0.
👉 Right now, the market looks like after the impulse, buyers are taking a pause. The nearer scenario is a small correction (possibly still to $30.2–30.3), and then an attempt to determine: either continuation of growth or a deeper pullback.
Price now: $28.98 (after a sharp rise to $30.03). 24h range: from $26.70 to $30.03 — meaning volatility is quite high.
RSI (6): ~49.8 → neutral zone, meaning there is no clear overbought or oversold condition. MACD: shows slight positive (MACD > DEA), but the movement is weak → this is rather a consolidation after the jump. Candles: after the peak at $30.03, there was a pullback to $28.53, and now there is an attempt to hold above $28.8–29.0. ⚖️ Key levels: Resistance: $29.45 – $30.0 (there was a reversal here, it may act as a strong wall for growth). Support: $28.5 (last bottom), then $27.8–28.0. 📈 Possible scenarios: 1. If the price consolidates above $29.1 → chance for a retest of $30.0. 2. If they can't hold $28.8–28.5 → possible drop to $28.0 and below. 3. Overall, today's trend remains upward (+8.2% for the day), but now it is in a pullback/consolidation phase. 🔮 About the coin (Avalanche, AVAX): This is a blockchain, a competitor to Ethereum, known for high transaction speeds.
Used for DeFi, NFTs, and various Web3 solutions.
Depends on the overall sentiment in the crypto market (especially from BTC and ETH).
👉 If you are trading short — watch the levels $28.5 (support) and $30 (strong resistance). 👉 If you are thinking long-term — AVAX is considered a promising project, but it is volatile.
The price has bounced several times from the area $24.45–24.50 (local support).
There is strong resistance around $25.00–25.05, where there have already been two downward bounces.
Now, after a brief rise, a small decline is forming, and the price has returned to $24.78.
2. Indicators:
RSI (6) ≈ 44 → zone closer to neutral, slight downward tilt → there are no overbought or oversold conditions, but it leans more towards a weak bearish signal.
Last candles: we see a strong upward spike (green candle with a long body), which reached the level of $4,307, but immediately after that a red candle appeared with a pullback down. This indicates that buyers made an attempt to break higher, but sellers quickly engaged and began to take profits.
Current state: the price has dropped closer to $4,292, meaning it has returned almost to the point where the rise began. This is a sign that the market is currently hesitating and the forces of buyers and sellers are approximately equal.
RSI ≈ 52 — neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold. This means there is no clear strong trend at the moment.
MACD shows a slight negative value (-0.65), indicating a slight advantage for bears, but the signal is not very strong.
📌 Conclusion:
There is local volatility and a struggle at the level of $4,290–$4,300.
If the next candles are green and break $4,307, we can expect a continuation of the rise.
If another 1–2 red candles appear in a row and the price drops below $4,280, there is a risk of falling to $4,270 and below.
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Here are some key reasons that likely caused the sharp decline in ETH on your chart:
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Reasons for the decline of Ethereum:
1. Fund outflows from ETFs + September seasonality
Over the last week, ETH has decreased by ~3.8%, trading around $4,322. Analysts point to fund outflows from ETFs amid weak sentiment in September — traditionally an unfavorable period for crypto.
$ETH I see in the screenshot the ETH/USDC (Ethereum to Dollar) chart from the Binance exchange, timeframe 1 hour.
🔎 What is visible:
Current price: $4280 (down ~1.47%).
Recent movement: after a confident rise to $4493, there was a sharp drop of almost $230 down (to $4262). This looks like a strong wave of selling (dump).
Candles: a long red candle overlapping several previous greens — a signal of seller dominance.
RSI (6): 28.58 → oversold zone (below 30), meaning the market quickly dumped the price. A bounce may occur.
MACD: still shows positive values (green bars), but it's clear that the histogram is starting to decrease → possible downward crossing and trend change.
Support area: around $4260–$4280, below — $4200.
Resistance: now $4400–$4450 (that’s where the strong dump began).
📌 Conclusion:
The downward movement is sharp, likely due to news or the exit of large volumes.
RSI suggests that ETH may bounce slightly upwards after such a drop, but the threat of continued decline also exists.
If there is no quick recovery above $4350–$4400, then the trend may shift into a downward correction.
After that, a pullback occurred – currently trading around $4439.
🔹 Candles
There is a large green candle that showed upward momentum.
After the peak of $4493, several candles with uncertainty (red and green with shadows) are formed, indicating a local struggle between buyers and sellers.
The current candle is red, meaning sellers are pushing.
🔹 Indicators
RSI (6) ~48 – this is a neutral zone, after overbought there is a cooling down. This means the market is neither overbought nor oversold right now.
MACD – the blue line (DIF) is slightly above the pink one (DEA), but the difference is minimal → the signal is weak, it could be a continuation of growth or a reversal.
Volumes increased during the impulse, then decreased → buyers are not as active anymore.
🔹 Conclusion
ETH is currently in correction after the rise.
If it holds the level of ~$4420–4430, there may be a new attempt to rise to $4490–4500.
If it breaks down below $4420 and consolidates – a drop to ~$4380 or even $4350 is possible.
📌 At this stage, it is better to wait for confirmation:
for long – if there is a bounce from ~$4420 with a green candle without a shadow down;
for short – if it breaks $4420 down with a strong red candle.