牛市逃顶指南
牛市逃顶指南,链上数据分析,带你穿越牛熊，牛市逃顶，关注我，微博“牛市逃顶指南” 推特“@Bull_Escape”
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Bear Market Dip Hunting Guide 3.0----Returns!
Here is an explanation for the friends of Binance. I have serialized this article on Weibo before. Today I suddenly thought of updating it to prepare Binance as the launch platform. The following content is separated by dotted lines. The content written each time is currently in the third edition. The following is the full content of each time.
When I started to write a bottom -up guide series, I was actually very resistant to my heart, because the current market has not yet reached the point of writing the bottom guideline, but he should always come, just like me here. At this moment, I still firmly believe that the bull market has not yet reached its top, and the bear market will surely come quietly.
When I started to write a bottom -up guide series, I was actually very resistant to my heart, because the current market has not yet reached the point of writing the bottom guideline, but he should always come, just like me here. At this moment, I still firmly believe that the bull market has not yet reached its top, and the bear market will surely come quietly.
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Non-farm good news is here!
Non-farm data is out. In November, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 64,000, exceeding the market's general expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate in the United States in November recorded 4.6%, above the expected 4.4%, the highest since September 2021.
Let's talk about my understanding of contradictory data.
Why have job openings increased while the number of unemployed people has also increased?
This is similar to participating in a large game of 'musical chairs.' We can look at what happened in this game from three perspectives.
1. Different statistical methods: counting 'chairs' vs counting 'heads.'
This is the most critical reason. The U.S. government has two groups of people using different methods to calculate the numbers.
Let's talk about my understanding of contradictory data.
Why have job openings increased while the number of unemployed people has also increased?
This is similar to participating in a large game of 'musical chairs.' We can look at what happened in this game from three perspectives.
1. Different statistical methods: counting 'chairs' vs counting 'heads.'
This is the most critical reason. The U.S. government has two groups of people using different methods to calculate the numbers.
See original
For the brothers with bullets
When can we start dollar-cost averaging?
Currently, based on AHR999X,
every time we enter the green area, it is relatively the bottom range.
Quantifying it with numbers, it means entering the range when the value is greater than 8, and when it exceeds 10, we can increase our position and go all in, just be careful not to hesitate.
That will be the time to take a left-side approach; there's no need to wait for the right-side trend to establish.
The current value is 5.98.
Let the bullets fly for a while longer.
When the time comes, I will directly smash the cup, and everyone will stand up.
When can we start dollar-cost averaging?
Currently, based on AHR999X,
every time we enter the green area, it is relatively the bottom range.
Quantifying it with numbers, it means entering the range when the value is greater than 8, and when it exceeds 10, we can increase our position and go all in, just be careful not to hesitate.
That will be the time to take a left-side approach; there's no need to wait for the right-side trend to establish.
The current value is 5.98.
Let the bullets fly for a while longer.
When the time comes, I will directly smash the cup, and everyone will stand up.
See original
The 2026 Carnival is Coming!
Good evening, XDM
Today let's discuss the relationship between monetary policy and the price of Bitcoin.
Many people now believe that: 'A rate cut will inevitably lead to price increases, while a rate hike will inevitably lead to price decreases.'
Today, I plan to review historical data to look at the correlation between the two from a historical perspective.
Bitcoin was born in 2009, during the darkest moment of the global financial crisis. Satoshi Nakamoto left the message 'Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks' in the genesis block.
Chapter One (The Wild Growth of Bitcoin)
The first bull market of Bitcoin saw wild growth in a loose environment, from December 2008 to December 2015, during which the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate in the range of 0.00%-0.25%, known as the zero interest rate policy period. Bitcoin experienced two epic bubbles in 2011 and 2013. However, at that time, Bitcoin was just emerging, and the market size was so small that the macro monetary policy of the time probably did not really influence the price fluctuations, but rather the small-scale speculation among a few people.
Today let's discuss the relationship between monetary policy and the price of Bitcoin.
Many people now believe that: 'A rate cut will inevitably lead to price increases, while a rate hike will inevitably lead to price decreases.'
Today, I plan to review historical data to look at the correlation between the two from a historical perspective.
Bitcoin was born in 2009, during the darkest moment of the global financial crisis. Satoshi Nakamoto left the message 'Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks' in the genesis block.
Chapter One (The Wild Growth of Bitcoin)
The first bull market of Bitcoin saw wild growth in a loose environment, from December 2008 to December 2015, during which the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate in the range of 0.00%-0.25%, known as the zero interest rate policy period. Bitcoin experienced two epic bubbles in 2011 and 2013. However, at that time, Bitcoin was just emerging, and the market size was so small that the macro monetary policy of the time probably did not really influence the price fluctuations, but rather the small-scale speculation among a few people.
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Good evening, brothers
The Fed's shoe has dropped. According to the dot plot, it shows that there may only be one rate cut next year. There are still significant internal divisions within the Fed, and the most important data will depend on the labor market demand, which will influence next year's rate cut strategy.
Now there is another shoe waiting to drop, which is the matter of Japan's interest rate hike. Recent rumors generally suggest that around the 18th, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 0.75%. If Japan starts to raise rates and continues with a hawkish stance, global capital will begin to change its flow. This topic has been discussed before, and it is definitely bearish for Bitcoin.
On the data front, long-term holders are still selling, and the speed is faster than before. I don't know if they have noticed something. As for ETF data, it has been relatively stable recently, in a balanced state of inflows and outflows.
Today someone asked me how I see Banmu Xia. Teacher Banmu Xia also spoke today, saying that Bitcoin might rise to a range of 10.3-11.25 in the next month. First of all, Teacher Ban uses the wave theory for judgment. As everyone knows, wave theory can yield different results for different people using the same tools.
Additionally, I still hold my own opinion. As mentioned before, I am still not very optimistic about the market in the short term. One reason is macro policy, and another is that there isn't much on-chain data to support a significant price increase. I actually hope to have an opportunity to touch 9.8, giving me a chance to join the short side.
Finally, in the past few days, the activity of mining night on a certain platform has been quite good. I managed to get this month's living expenses sorted out, which is nice for those of us who are currently holding a large empty position. Next time I'll keep a close eye on the activities and jump in at the first opportunity.
I went hiking today and just got home, writing a bit. I will reply to everyone in the comments and private messages tomorrow.
Good night~!
The Fed's shoe has dropped. According to the dot plot, it shows that there may only be one rate cut next year. There are still significant internal divisions within the Fed, and the most important data will depend on the labor market demand, which will influence next year's rate cut strategy.
Now there is another shoe waiting to drop, which is the matter of Japan's interest rate hike. Recent rumors generally suggest that around the 18th, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 0.75%. If Japan starts to raise rates and continues with a hawkish stance, global capital will begin to change its flow. This topic has been discussed before, and it is definitely bearish for Bitcoin.
On the data front, long-term holders are still selling, and the speed is faster than before. I don't know if they have noticed something. As for ETF data, it has been relatively stable recently, in a balanced state of inflows and outflows.
Today someone asked me how I see Banmu Xia. Teacher Banmu Xia also spoke today, saying that Bitcoin might rise to a range of 10.3-11.25 in the next month. First of all, Teacher Ban uses the wave theory for judgment. As everyone knows, wave theory can yield different results for different people using the same tools.
Additionally, I still hold my own opinion. As mentioned before, I am still not very optimistic about the market in the short term. One reason is macro policy, and another is that there isn't much on-chain data to support a significant price increase. I actually hope to have an opportunity to touch 9.8, giving me a chance to join the short side.
Finally, in the past few days, the activity of mining night on a certain platform has been quite good. I managed to get this month's living expenses sorted out, which is nice for those of us who are currently holding a large empty position. Next time I'll keep a close eye on the activities and jump in at the first opportunity.
I went hiking today and just got home, writing a bit. I will reply to everyone in the comments and private messages tomorrow.
Good night~!
See original
Good afternoon！
Tomorrow at 3 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce the December interest rate decision.
Currently, the probability of a rate cut is 87.6%, while the probability of no cut is 12.4%.
The market has fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut, and unless something unexpected happens, it is certain that there will be a cut tonight.
The key point now is the timing of Powell's speech after the decision, where we need to focus on the 'dot plot' for the 2026 interest rate path.
If, I mean in the unlikely event, there is that 12% probability of no rate cut, and it happens, then one could wake up to a waterfall face wash tomorrow morning.
Additionally, let’s pay attention to the data from long-term holders of over 1 year. Currently, with the price increase, long-term holders are still persisting in selling, which aligns with historical patterns: distributing during uptrends and accumulating during downturns. We are still in the distribution cycle, and historical data of the whales shows that they have made both right and wrong purchases, while long-term holders have almost never missed any of the cycles through so many bull and bear markets.
Also, my X and Weibo almost daily post the same content, yet my X was the first to be banned, which is really unbelievable, and no reason was given. Later, I will open a new one, and at that time, everyone can keep an eye on it.
Tomorrow at 3 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce the December interest rate decision.
Currently, the probability of a rate cut is 87.6%, while the probability of no cut is 12.4%.
The market has fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut, and unless something unexpected happens, it is certain that there will be a cut tonight.
The key point now is the timing of Powell's speech after the decision, where we need to focus on the 'dot plot' for the 2026 interest rate path.
If, I mean in the unlikely event, there is that 12% probability of no rate cut, and it happens, then one could wake up to a waterfall face wash tomorrow morning.
Additionally, let’s pay attention to the data from long-term holders of over 1 year. Currently, with the price increase, long-term holders are still persisting in selling, which aligns with historical patterns: distributing during uptrends and accumulating during downturns. We are still in the distribution cycle, and historical data of the whales shows that they have made both right and wrong purchases, while long-term holders have almost never missed any of the cycles through so many bull and bear markets.
Also, my X and Weibo almost daily post the same content, yet my X was the first to be banned, which is really unbelievable, and no reason was given. Later, I will open a new one, and at that time, everyone can keep an eye on it.
See original
Good morning, folks
Today we will look at a few key data points
The first is the True Market Mean Price, which excludes a lot of useless on-chain data, such as the millions of early lost bitcoins, because this data would lower the average price, so this is called the 'true average price'
We can see that historically, every time we break this line, we enter a long-term upward trend, conversely, when the price falls below this line, it also initiates a long-term downward trend
The current average price is: 81371, which may also be the last support point of this bull market, or it could be a reversal point
The second is to look at the Accumulation Trend Score. Recently, many friends have been asking me, whether the whales have already bottomed out and entered the market, let's quickly check the on-chain data, so today we will take a look at this data. This data has also filtered out some internal wallet transfers, exchange addresses, etc., making it a relatively accurate whale buying statistic
The graph shows values from 0-1, changing from light to dark; the darker the color, the closer to 1, the stronger the whale buying. From the earlier period to the time it reached 80,000, whales indeed started buying heavily
However, if we analyze this data dialectically, we will find that whales like to buy at two positions: one at the bottom and one at the top. For example, they bought heavily at the bottom in 2018 and 312, but they also crazily bought at the top in 2021. So this is a signal, but it needs to be observed in conjunction with other data
Finally, let's look at the URPD distribution chart. We can see that after so many days, the large funds that entered at 8.4 are still as steady as a rock, with no movements. This position has also indirectly formed a relatively strong support
Currently, the market is still mainly fluctuating widely; the market will not shift according to your personal will. What we need to do is to closely monitor the market and follow the trend.
Today we will look at a few key data points
The first is the True Market Mean Price, which excludes a lot of useless on-chain data, such as the millions of early lost bitcoins, because this data would lower the average price, so this is called the 'true average price'
We can see that historically, every time we break this line, we enter a long-term upward trend, conversely, when the price falls below this line, it also initiates a long-term downward trend
The current average price is: 81371, which may also be the last support point of this bull market, or it could be a reversal point
The second is to look at the Accumulation Trend Score. Recently, many friends have been asking me, whether the whales have already bottomed out and entered the market, let's quickly check the on-chain data, so today we will take a look at this data. This data has also filtered out some internal wallet transfers, exchange addresses, etc., making it a relatively accurate whale buying statistic
The graph shows values from 0-1, changing from light to dark; the darker the color, the closer to 1, the stronger the whale buying. From the earlier period to the time it reached 80,000, whales indeed started buying heavily
However, if we analyze this data dialectically, we will find that whales like to buy at two positions: one at the bottom and one at the top. For example, they bought heavily at the bottom in 2018 and 312, but they also crazily bought at the top in 2021. So this is a signal, but it needs to be observed in conjunction with other data
Finally, let's look at the URPD distribution chart. We can see that after so many days, the large funds that entered at 8.4 are still as steady as a rock, with no movements. This position has also indirectly formed a relatively strong support
Currently, the market is still mainly fluctuating widely; the market will not shift according to your personal will. What we need to do is to closely monitor the market and follow the trend.
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The Huge "Black Swan" May Be Coming!!!
The biggest black swan in the market now is not the Federal Reserve, but Japan
Today I will prepare a detailed introduction on why Japan has suddenly become this black swan
This introduction will try to avoid professional terminology and will attempt to explain the underlying principles from a beginner's perspective
=========================================================
Chapter One (Japan's Disappearing 30 Years)
In the past 30 years, the Japanese economy has been like a sick old man suffering from "deflation." Prices of goods in supermarkets drop daily, and you think tomorrow will be even cheaper, so you decide to "wait a little longer." Everyone thinks this way, resulting in no one spending money, factories making no profit, having to cut salaries and lay off workers, and people having even less money to buy things, starting a vicious cycle. Therefore, the Bank of Japan started to pull out all the stops. To force everyone to spend money, the Bank of Japan lowered interest rates to 0%, and even into negative territory. This means that money kept in the bank not only earns no interest but also incurs fees.
Today I will prepare a detailed introduction on why Japan has suddenly become this black swan
This introduction will try to avoid professional terminology and will attempt to explain the underlying principles from a beginner's perspective
=========================================================
Chapter One (Japan's Disappearing 30 Years)
In the past 30 years, the Japanese economy has been like a sick old man suffering from "deflation." Prices of goods in supermarkets drop daily, and you think tomorrow will be even cheaper, so you decide to "wait a little longer." Everyone thinks this way, resulting in no one spending money, factories making no profit, having to cut salaries and lay off workers, and people having even less money to buy things, starting a vicious cycle. Therefore, the Bank of Japan started to pull out all the stops. To force everyone to spend money, the Bank of Japan lowered interest rates to 0%, and even into negative territory. This means that money kept in the bank not only earns no interest but also incurs fees.
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The 'Core Rule' of Making Money on the Right Side
In the past few days, the market has continued to fluctuate and rebound, but the cup I have is still very tight.
There is still a distance to the position where I can short, and the distance to the reversal is even farther.
Today I want to focus on discussing why I currently value right-side trading and trend trading.
In trading, traders usually face two core choices: left-side and right-side prediction of turning points.
Left-side: Imagine a knife falling from the table, and you try to catch it before it hits the ground. If you catch it accurately, you buy at the lowest point, which is cool; but more likely, your hand gets cut (catching a flying knife).
There is still a distance to the position where I can short, and the distance to the reversal is even farther.
Today I want to focus on discussing why I currently value right-side trading and trend trading.
In trading, traders usually face two core choices: left-side and right-side prediction of turning points.
Left-side: Imagine a knife falling from the table, and you try to catch it before it hits the ground. If you catch it accurately, you buy at the lowest point, which is cool; but more likely, your hand gets cut (catching a flying knife).
See original
Good evening, brothers
Let me briefly talk about the market
The recent rebound to over 90,000 has actually been very weak. I thought it could rise a little higher and give an opportunity to short
But there was no opportunity at all, so let's stick to the established strategy and continue to wait
A couple of days ago, I conducted a survey, and I really didn't expect that the majority still believe in a 'bull market'
This actually corroborates the fact that the market is indeed 20-80, with a small portion making money off the majority
From a data perspective, pay attention to the long-term holder data I've mentioned repeatedly. It is still accelerating in search of a bottom
Historically, the true bottom is reached only after prices drop and long-term holders begin to accumulate slowly, and it seems we are still a bit away from that
The recent macroeconomic situation is also very pessimistic, with strict measures in the East, Japan raising interest rates, and the Federal Reserve not being supportive
There are rumors that Powell will announce his resignation at 7 PM EST on December 1. We'll see tomorrow morning if it's true
Additionally, the most concerning issue is the interest rate hike in Japan. When the yen carry trade ends, investors will panic sell their risk assets to exchange for yen to pay off debts, and Bitcoin is the asset most likely to suffer from sell-offs
At this point in time, I really do not recommend making reckless moves
Be patient and wait for opportunities; the time should not be too long
Let me briefly talk about the market
The recent rebound to over 90,000 has actually been very weak. I thought it could rise a little higher and give an opportunity to short
But there was no opportunity at all, so let's stick to the established strategy and continue to wait
A couple of days ago, I conducted a survey, and I really didn't expect that the majority still believe in a 'bull market'
This actually corroborates the fact that the market is indeed 20-80, with a small portion making money off the majority
From a data perspective, pay attention to the long-term holder data I've mentioned repeatedly. It is still accelerating in search of a bottom
Historically, the true bottom is reached only after prices drop and long-term holders begin to accumulate slowly, and it seems we are still a bit away from that
The recent macroeconomic situation is also very pessimistic, with strict measures in the East, Japan raising interest rates, and the Federal Reserve not being supportive
There are rumors that Powell will announce his resignation at 7 PM EST on December 1. We'll see tomorrow morning if it's true
Additionally, the most concerning issue is the interest rate hike in Japan. When the yen carry trade ends, investors will panic sell their risk assets to exchange for yen to pay off debts, and Bitcoin is the asset most likely to suffer from sell-offs
At this point in time, I really do not recommend making reckless moves
Be patient and wait for opportunities; the time should not be too long
See original
Good morning December
Let's talk about December in history
Starting from the year 13, December has risen 5 times and fallen 7 times
Moreover, there is a theory that whenever November closes down, December will always close down, a total of 4 times
I wonder if this December can break the historical "curse"
Let's talk about December in history
Starting from the year 13, December has risen 5 times and fallen 7 times
Moreover, there is a theory that whenever November closes down, December will always close down, a total of 4 times
I wonder if this December can break the historical "curse"
See original
Yesterday, everyone saw the document issued by the 13 departments. Today, I want to reiterate the specific scope of impact and individuals.
First, the targets of the crackdown are OTC merchants and exchangers; the meeting clearly emphasized focusing on 'capital flows'.
Secondly, it involves 'technology and developers'. Especially if what you develop is illegal stuff like anonymous wallets, mixers, etc., these things are illegal not just domestically but even abroad. Such situations may be recognized as 'aiding and abetting crimes'. Other WEB3 development also requires very cautious judgment.
Project operators and promoters, as well as their domestic agents/BD personnel, theoretically are defined as illegal financial activities according to the documents.
Additionally, KOLs and content creators in the self-media industry will undergo a new round of keyword cleansing. This includes private domain chats that will also be affected.
Finally, for ordinary retail investors and speculators (jiucai), the channels have narrowed, legal protection is zero, theoretically non-compliant but not illegal.
Lastly, I believe this regulation will indirectly encourage some petty theft and fraud behaviors because many of my friends have encountered similar situations before, being deceived in over-the-counter trades or group scams, and when reporting to the police, the outcome is always the same. You are using virtual currency not recognized by the state, and since it is not recognized, there is no fraud. Since it is not fraud, then it cannot be filed. All losses are borne by yourself. Even if you already know who the scammer is, there will be no accountability pursued because there is no appropriate legal basis.
This is my interpretation of the current state of the industry. In the future, I hope the entire industry becomes more standardized and that we can have new opportunities.
First, the targets of the crackdown are OTC merchants and exchangers; the meeting clearly emphasized focusing on 'capital flows'.
Secondly, it involves 'technology and developers'. Especially if what you develop is illegal stuff like anonymous wallets, mixers, etc., these things are illegal not just domestically but even abroad. Such situations may be recognized as 'aiding and abetting crimes'. Other WEB3 development also requires very cautious judgment.
Project operators and promoters, as well as their domestic agents/BD personnel, theoretically are defined as illegal financial activities according to the documents.
Additionally, KOLs and content creators in the self-media industry will undergo a new round of keyword cleansing. This includes private domain chats that will also be affected.
Finally, for ordinary retail investors and speculators (jiucai), the channels have narrowed, legal protection is zero, theoretically non-compliant but not illegal.
Lastly, I believe this regulation will indirectly encourage some petty theft and fraud behaviors because many of my friends have encountered similar situations before, being deceived in over-the-counter trades or group scams, and when reporting to the police, the outcome is always the same. You are using virtual currency not recognized by the state, and since it is not recognized, there is no fraud. Since it is not fraud, then it cannot be filed. All losses are borne by yourself. Even if you already know who the scammer is, there will be no accountability pursued because there is no appropriate legal basis.
This is my interpretation of the current state of the industry. In the future, I hope the entire industry becomes more standardized and that we can have new opportunities.
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Good morning, buddies
The content this morning is a bit dry, remember to bring more water
Many people are now asking me the most common question, which is, I haven't sold at 110000, and now it's dropped, what should I do?
Today, according to this rebound, I'll make a small prediction, this time it may reach the maximum range of the rebound
The chart shows the weekly K, the purple line is the 200EMA
According to the continuation of this rebound trend, the most likely maximum position is to touch around 98000
My current planned operation is that if this position is reached, I will directly short at 98000, with a stop loss set around 10100-10200
So if it gets to this point, most people might think the bull is back
But it could also be the last chance to run away this time
If it doesn't go up, rebounds a little, and then goes down directly, we will continue to hold our position
Respond to changes without changing
This article is sponsored by Maitong MSX
The content this morning is a bit dry, remember to bring more water
Many people are now asking me the most common question, which is, I haven't sold at 110000, and now it's dropped, what should I do?
Today, according to this rebound, I'll make a small prediction, this time it may reach the maximum range of the rebound
The chart shows the weekly K, the purple line is the 200EMA
According to the continuation of this rebound trend, the most likely maximum position is to touch around 98000
My current planned operation is that if this position is reached, I will directly short at 98000, with a stop loss set around 10100-10200
So if it gets to this point, most people might think the bull is back
But it could also be the last chance to run away this time
If it doesn't go up, rebounds a little, and then goes down directly, we will continue to hold our position
Respond to changes without changing
This article is sponsored by Maitong MSX
See original
Has the market reversed? Let's take a look at the on-chain data.
Tonight, we'll delve into a very interesting indicator, Long-Term Holder Supply.
First, let's look at Chart 1. Historically, the long-term holder supply indicator has peaked as prices rise and then continuously declines, while during price declines, the supply consistently increases. However, this time is very, very unusual.
Next, let's analyze the true reasons behind this situation.
Normal bull market pattern (distribution phase): Prices rise, long-term holders reduce their holdings. This is when 'smart money' sells to 'FOMO new retail investors'.
Normal bear market pattern (accumulation phase): Prices fall, long-term holders increase their holdings. This is when 'smart money' accumulates at the bottom.
First, let's look at Chart 1. Historically, the long-term holder supply indicator has peaked as prices rise and then continuously declines, while during price declines, the supply consistently increases. However, this time is very, very unusual.
Next, let's analyze the true reasons behind this situation.
Normal bull market pattern (distribution phase): Prices rise, long-term holders reduce their holdings. This is when 'smart money' sells to 'FOMO new retail investors'.
Normal bear market pattern (accumulation phase): Prices fall, long-term holders increase their holdings. This is when 'smart money' accumulates at the bottom.
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I am back, continuing to update, and there should be daily updates from now on.
See original
Today, let's take a look at the important points in on-chain data that need special attention recently.
Today, the Fear and Greed Index fluctuated back and forth; it was 60 yesterday and reached 70 today, which is still an acceptable range.
The proportion of one-year holders suddenly showed a small upward trend, which is very important. If the trend continues to rise slowly, it indicates that long-term holders are gradually shifting from "distribution" to "accumulation." However, this is just one day's data and cannot be conclusive; we need to observe for a few more days (Figure 2).
The recent adjustments cannot all be attributed to the chaos after MEME flying everywhere. In fact, the volume of open contracts has also surged rapidly, and the number of long positions opened is much higher than that of short positions (Figure 3).
The last point is about ETF data, which is also very strong. From the chart, we can see that the recent slope of the rise is actually very steep. The ETF is a cornerstone; the accumulation in the front may not be discovered so quickly, but once the quantity changes, it will lead to a qualitative change. Similarly, the ETF for the second coin is also seeing decent inflows, and the institutions holding the second coin are continuously buying (Figure 4).
Many indicators that were previously questioned have now proven to be ineffective, and this will continue to be validated. The bull market will continue, and most indicators are currently normal.
Tomorrow, I will try to reply to all the overdue comments within a day.
Also, I will strive to reply to all the previous private messages regarding verification tomorrow. If you haven't been seen, please message me again.
This article is sponsored by #MyStonks ｜ @MSX_CN
Today, the Fear and Greed Index fluctuated back and forth; it was 60 yesterday and reached 70 today, which is still an acceptable range.
The proportion of one-year holders suddenly showed a small upward trend, which is very important. If the trend continues to rise slowly, it indicates that long-term holders are gradually shifting from "distribution" to "accumulation." However, this is just one day's data and cannot be conclusive; we need to observe for a few more days (Figure 2).
The recent adjustments cannot all be attributed to the chaos after MEME flying everywhere. In fact, the volume of open contracts has also surged rapidly, and the number of long positions opened is much higher than that of short positions (Figure 3).
The last point is about ETF data, which is also very strong. From the chart, we can see that the recent slope of the rise is actually very steep. The ETF is a cornerstone; the accumulation in the front may not be discovered so quickly, but once the quantity changes, it will lead to a qualitative change. Similarly, the ETF for the second coin is also seeing decent inflows, and the institutions holding the second coin are continuously buying (Figure 4).
Many indicators that were previously questioned have now proven to be ineffective, and this will continue to be validated. The bull market will continue, and most indicators are currently normal.
Tomorrow, I will try to reply to all the overdue comments within a day.
Also, I will strive to reply to all the previous private messages regarding verification tomorrow. If you haven't been seen, please message me again.
This article is sponsored by #MyStonks ｜ @MSX_CN
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Why hasn't there been much discussion about the news of Grayscale ETF spot pledges?
Regarding this point, I can provide some data references for everyone.
The first is on https://farside.co.uk/eth/. In addition to seeing daily ETF inflow and outflow data, there is a section at the top for staking, where you can see which ones are currently ongoing and which ones have already been completed. Currently, we can see that two of Grayscale's have already been completed.
The second is that you can currently check various specific data on Grayscale's official website daily, including what percentage of ETH has already been staked. Portal: https://etfs.grayscale.com/ethe
The third is to check the sites for entering and exiting staking: https://validatorqueue.com. A few days ago, there were only over 100,000 entering staking, and today it has soared to over 1,300,000, of which 80% are Grayscale's staking.
In fact, from the data above, it can be observed that Grayscale's ETH market share is very small in the entire ETF, but it has indeed taken the lead in initiating ETH staking, laying a very important foundation for subsequent institutions to stake.
I checked BlackRock's current staking application status, and the previous application documents had been withdrawn at the end of September, which should be related to modifications of relevant documents. They have not submitted the application documents again yet.
If the giant BlackRock approves the staking, the liquidity in the market will be significantly reduced, and it will stimulate more institutions to invest heavily in ETH.
What I lost on BNB, this time I want to get it all back on ETH!
Regarding this point, I can provide some data references for everyone.
The first is on https://farside.co.uk/eth/. In addition to seeing daily ETF inflow and outflow data, there is a section at the top for staking, where you can see which ones are currently ongoing and which ones have already been completed. Currently, we can see that two of Grayscale's have already been completed.
The second is that you can currently check various specific data on Grayscale's official website daily, including what percentage of ETH has already been staked. Portal: https://etfs.grayscale.com/ethe
The third is to check the sites for entering and exiting staking: https://validatorqueue.com. A few days ago, there were only over 100,000 entering staking, and today it has soared to over 1,300,000, of which 80% are Grayscale's staking.
In fact, from the data above, it can be observed that Grayscale's ETH market share is very small in the entire ETF, but it has indeed taken the lead in initiating ETH staking, laying a very important foundation for subsequent institutions to stake.
I checked BlackRock's current staking application status, and the previous application documents had been withdrawn at the end of September, which should be related to modifications of relevant documents. They have not submitted the application documents again yet.
If the giant BlackRock approves the staking, the liquidity in the market will be significantly reduced, and it will stimulate more institutions to invest heavily in ETH.
What I lost on BNB, this time I want to get it all back on ETH!
See original
Return！！！！！！！！！！！！
Today is mainly about summarizing and reviewing the previous phase, as well as the operations for the next stage.
The last round of clearing was on August 30th, at that time it was mentioned that the market would at least oscillate and adjust for a month.
As we can see, it adjusted for almost exactly 1 month, and it was expected to reach around 100,000, but it still declined sideways, very strong.
So when the market turned strong again, I initially confirmed on October 1st, when the price was around 11.7, and the second coin was around 4300, then I completely confirmed and re-entered the market on October 2nd.
The key points of these two operations are "decisive" and "resolute", not hesitating, moving forward with my strategy.
For this wave of operations, I personally summarized it in 12 characters: follow the market trend, grasp the crypto life.
In the future, in my dictionary, the concepts of "bull market" and "bear market" may gradually fade away.
No need to get entangled in whether it is a bull market or a bear market now, has the bull market finished? How high can the bull top go? How low can the bear market go? Is the 4-year cycle still there? Does physics still exist?
All these thoughts should be discarded, as they no longer hold much significance.
In a downtrend, avoid risks; in an uptrend, embrace the market. As the saying goes, "advance can attack, retreat can defend."
There may be very little profits missed in between, but with a higher probability, you can avoid experiencing the panic and losses caused by a real crash.
The same logic applies; if the market comes back, the trend continues, after decisively entering the market, you can recover all the profits that were slightly missed.
Today, the market has again been collapsed by the '土狗' without suspense, and during the day, everywhere is filled with stories of getting rich quickly.
But it's okay, I am now a thorough bull, I am now standing with the bulls.
Buying on dips is now my principle.
The trumpet of victory has just sounded.
This time we charge towards the shore of victory together~！！
This article is sponsored by #MyStonks ｜@MSX_CN
Today is mainly about summarizing and reviewing the previous phase, as well as the operations for the next stage.
The last round of clearing was on August 30th, at that time it was mentioned that the market would at least oscillate and adjust for a month.
As we can see, it adjusted for almost exactly 1 month, and it was expected to reach around 100,000, but it still declined sideways, very strong.
So when the market turned strong again, I initially confirmed on October 1st, when the price was around 11.7, and the second coin was around 4300, then I completely confirmed and re-entered the market on October 2nd.
The key points of these two operations are "decisive" and "resolute", not hesitating, moving forward with my strategy.
For this wave of operations, I personally summarized it in 12 characters: follow the market trend, grasp the crypto life.
In the future, in my dictionary, the concepts of "bull market" and "bear market" may gradually fade away.
No need to get entangled in whether it is a bull market or a bear market now, has the bull market finished? How high can the bull top go? How low can the bear market go? Is the 4-year cycle still there? Does physics still exist?
All these thoughts should be discarded, as they no longer hold much significance.
In a downtrend, avoid risks; in an uptrend, embrace the market. As the saying goes, "advance can attack, retreat can defend."
There may be very little profits missed in between, but with a higher probability, you can avoid experiencing the panic and losses caused by a real crash.
The same logic applies; if the market comes back, the trend continues, after decisively entering the market, you can recover all the profits that were slightly missed.
Today, the market has again been collapsed by the '土狗' without suspense, and during the day, everywhere is filled with stories of getting rich quickly.
But it's okay, I am now a thorough bull, I am now standing with the bulls.
Buying on dips is now my principle.
The trumpet of victory has just sounded.
This time we charge towards the shore of victory together~！！
This article is sponsored by #MyStonks ｜@MSX_CN
See original
The things written during the National Day period were only posted on Weibo
I forgot to post it on the square, so I will repost the content from the past few days
It's not hindsight, just moving it over
======================================
October 1st Post
Today the big pie exploded, very crucial
Wait until 8 am tomorrow, I may have to change my view
========================================
October 2nd Post
The bull is back quickly!!! The bull is back quickly!!!! The bull is back quickly!!!
After nearly a month of adjustment, with horizontal instead of decline, currently standing above 116600 is already a major trend reversal, now it is significantly standing above.
Please remove the short-selling button in your head, fully embrace the bull market.
All removed, all removed!!!
My personal operation, currently the big pie is rising sharply, I will not consider entering the big pie for now, I will focus on eth and sol, first build a bottom position,
Buy on the pullback, buy on the pullback, buy on the pullback!!!
There is no need to be too entangled about how much this pullback is, the major trend has already changed, charge!!!
I forgot to post it on the square, so I will repost the content from the past few days
It's not hindsight, just moving it over
======================================
October 1st Post
Today the big pie exploded, very crucial
Wait until 8 am tomorrow, I may have to change my view
========================================
October 2nd Post
The bull is back quickly!!! The bull is back quickly!!!! The bull is back quickly!!!
After nearly a month of adjustment, with horizontal instead of decline, currently standing above 116600 is already a major trend reversal, now it is significantly standing above.
Please remove the short-selling button in your head, fully embrace the bull market.
All removed, all removed!!!
My personal operation, currently the big pie is rising sharply, I will not consider entering the big pie for now, I will focus on eth and sol, first build a bottom position,
Buy on the pullback, buy on the pullback, buy on the pullback!!!
There is no need to be too entangled about how much this pullback is, the major trend has already changed, charge!!!
See original
Good morning, folks
The day before yesterday, I mentioned the viewpoint of a rebound and provided my reasons
The market was quite accommodating and gave a slight rebound
However, at present, the rebound strength is still too small
Currently, if we want to return to a slightly stronger position, we need to at least go above 11.35 and maintain a stable daily close for a few days to have a chance
Finally, I have a fill-in-the-blank question for everyone; this question should be easy for the old fans
After the rebound, there will be ___________!!!!!!
This article is sponsored by #MyStonks ｜@MSX_COM
The day before yesterday, I mentioned the viewpoint of a rebound and provided my reasons
The market was quite accommodating and gave a slight rebound
However, at present, the rebound strength is still too small
Currently, if we want to return to a slightly stronger position, we need to at least go above 11.35 and maintain a stable daily close for a few days to have a chance
Finally, I have a fill-in-the-blank question for everyone; this question should be easy for the old fans
After the rebound, there will be ___________!!!!!!
This article is sponsored by #MyStonks ｜@MSX_COM
Good evening, brothers
Today let's analyze the short-term market. Although I am indeed quite inexperienced in the short term, I will try my best to provide some personal insights based on my understanding.
First, let's talk about the conclusion: currently, the short-term outlook is bullish, looking for a rebound, for the following reasons:
First, after the recent days of significant decline, a lot of leverage has indeed been cleared, so much so that almost all bulls have been wiped out, and there are only bears left outside. Therefore, in this situation, there is a probability of continuing to drop significantly in the short term, but it is relatively small.
Second, the Fear and Greed Index has reached 33 today, up from 28 yesterday. Although it hasn't reached extreme fear, 28 is already the lowest value in the past 5 months. The sentiment index is actually very accurate in the short term.
Third, looking at the K-line indicator, there is a need for a small rebound, especially for the second contract, which is probably around 4200.
Lastly, regarding the overall trend, I still don't have a very optimistic view in the long term. The cost line for short-term holders has once again fallen below, which is the second time in a short period, and there hasn't been an immediate rebound after breaking below, indicating that the entire market is very weak. Additionally, the current big environment shows various risks aside from interest rate cuts.
Before the situation becomes clear, I will continue to observe. Today I changed the color scheme of the data chart; I wonder if this looks more pleasing.
This article is sponsored by #MyStonks ｜ @MSX_COM
Today let's analyze the short-term market. Although I am indeed quite inexperienced in the short term, I will try my best to provide some personal insights based on my understanding.
First, let's talk about the conclusion: currently, the short-term outlook is bullish, looking for a rebound, for the following reasons:
First, after the recent days of significant decline, a lot of leverage has indeed been cleared, so much so that almost all bulls have been wiped out, and there are only bears left outside. Therefore, in this situation, there is a probability of continuing to drop significantly in the short term, but it is relatively small.
Second, the Fear and Greed Index has reached 33 today, up from 28 yesterday. Although it hasn't reached extreme fear, 28 is already the lowest value in the past 5 months. The sentiment index is actually very accurate in the short term.
Third, looking at the K-line indicator, there is a need for a small rebound, especially for the second contract, which is probably around 4200.
Lastly, regarding the overall trend, I still don't have a very optimistic view in the long term. The cost line for short-term holders has once again fallen below, which is the second time in a short period, and there hasn't been an immediate rebound after breaking below, indicating that the entire market is very weak. Additionally, the current big environment shows various risks aside from interest rate cuts.
Before the situation becomes clear, I will continue to observe. Today I changed the color scheme of the data chart; I wonder if this looks more pleasing.
This article is sponsored by #MyStonks ｜ @MSX_COM
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