老韩说币

Today I was struck by this concept: AI collaboration + content output + asset settlement. 🤯

I used to think of myself as an AI novice, struggling with which tool to learn. It is only now that I realize the tools are just means; the core is to turn these three things into a daily automated 'production line.' It's not just about being lazy, but managing oneself like running a factory, allowing every thought to become an asset.

The principle is simple, and the rest is about continuously repeating this closed loop over the long term. Starting today, I will try to establish my own little system. 🌱

Roll up

🧵 【1/6】Market Review: The $90,000 Barrier Lost and Regained, Texas Fires the First Shot of the 'National Server'
Waking up, BTC has already returned to $91,792.
The retracement to $87,000 over the weekend now looks like a typical 'fake drop' under liquidity exhaustion.
Why am I so confident? Because the underlying narrative logic is undergoing a qualitative change.
Deep analysis of this week's 'Super Week' script👇
#BTC走势分析
【2/6】Strongest Validation: Texas Builds Position, National Server Launched
If you still don't understand what Dean Wang means by 'National Server in the Crypto World,' check this news:
Texas, USA, announces the initiation of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, with the first purchase already made.
This is not just institutions (BlackRock) buying; now the **government (State)** is buying.
The floor for BTC is being raised infinitely. This is a signal for 'regular forces' to enter the market; the future belongs to compliant large funds, and the 'grassroots era' is coming to an end.
【3/6】Macroeconomic Aspect: Bad News = Good News
Last week's small non-farm payrolls surprised the market, pushing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10 to 92%.
The market is preemptively trading this liquidity release.
As long as the Treasury (Besen) and Powell (Federal Reserve) release funds to save jobs, the logic for Bitcoin's rise cannot be disproven.
【4/6】Wave of Compliance: Binance and Robinhood's Advance
Look at the actions of the giants:
Binance secures a full license in Abu Dhabi
Robinhood expands into Southeast Asia
Exchanges are crazily embracing regulation. The future of the crypto world is a **'low leverage, high compliance, slow bull' version of the National Server.
This is also why we need to avoid the MSTR** high-premium 'private server' model—regulatory iron fists will only strike the first bird, not compliant assets.
【5/6】This Week's Strategy: Responding to Super Week
Wednesday (December 10) Federal Reserve decision is a key point.
Most likely script: Announce rate cut -> BTC surges (looking at $95k) -> Short-term pullback on profit-taking.
Operational Instructions:
Hold onto spot positions: The Texas government is buying; don't get off the bus.
Beware of euphoria: If Wednesday's surge is too strong (approaching 100,000), short-term positions can take profits, preparing for a 'sell the fact' pullback.
【6/6】Conclusion
Below $90,000 is likely history.
We are witnessing the historical process of Bitcoin transforming from a 'geek toy' to a 'national reserve.'
The greater the storm, the harder the logic must be.
Hold on, lay flat, and wait for the wind to come!

🧵 【1/5】Market Review: The epic trap has been completed, the $90,000 mark has been lost and regained.
Waking up, BTC has already stood back above $91,300.
If yesterday's drop below $83,000 was the "darkest hour", then this morning's $91,000 is the horn of dawn.
The market is now very clear: yesterday's crash that wiped out $500 million in leverage was a textbook-level "false breakdown" (Bear Trap).
#BTC #Crypto #MacroAnalysis
【2/5】Technical Analysis: Right-Side Signal Established
📊 Bottom Confirmation: Yesterday's low point of $83,000 left a huge long lower shadow (Hammer), marking the end of capitulation.
🚀 Key Reversal: The price strongly reclaimed the $90,000 "lifeline".
This means: the positions that were liquidated below this level have already missed the opportunity, and the short trap has closed.
Now, we officially enter the right-side trading range.
【3/5】Macro Perspective: Thunder without Rain
Yesterday, the market was still panicking over the liquidity drain caused by the "Bank of Japan's interest rate hike", but today the sentiment has recovered.
It has been proven:
The ripple effect from Japan was overestimated, and the market's resilience is stronger than expected.
The "Haset Logic" (U.S. Treasury Dominance + Bond Issuance) remains the underlying support.
As long as the Federal Reserve continues to provide liquidity for infrastructure and AI, the long-term upward logic for core assets (hard tech, BTC) cannot be refuted.
【4/5】Operational Strategy: Don't Bet on a Second Bottom
Since $90,000 has already turned from resistance to support (top-bottom conversion):
🛑 Bears: No matter what, now is not the time to short.
✅ Bulls:
Aggressive: The current price near $91,000 is the opportunity.#加密市场观察 #加密市场回调

The fluctuation continues today,

The big coin broke below the first support at 11.2 and quickly rebounded to 11.3, with resistance at 11.5 above and support at 11.2 below, the second support at 10.8.

The big coin is still in an upward trend, but is clearly in a consolidation phase, so patience is required.

The second coin's bearish sentiment continues to strengthen, falling to our first support around 4000 during the day, fortunately rebounding in time, but still finding it difficult to return above 4200. If it breaks below 4000 next, support is at 3700; if it holds above 4200, the next resistance level is 4300.

The longer the current time drags on, the greater the probability of the second coin entering a bear market; it needs to return above 4200 as soon as possible.

The crypto market finally welcomes liquidity reinforcements today, as institutions return from their break. Various spot ETFs surge, driving Bitcoin up 2.7%.

As I have always said, Wall Street institutions are focused on Bitcoin, not other cryptocurrencies. This is particularly evident today. As a store of value, Bitcoin's stability and its return to value after a decline are also the most certain.

Bitcoin has temporarily moved away from the dangerous level of 108,000 and will continue to observe fluctuations. It remains to be seen whether institutional funds can sustain this. After this wave of institutional bottom fishing, if on-chain whales choose to continue selling, it could trigger the next wave of decline.

Key support to watch below is at 108,000; while above, keep an eye on the resistance levels of 112,000 to 113,000.

After this round of correction, Ethereum shows a decline in downward momentum. Key resistance to watch above is in the range of 4,400 to 4,450 dollars; while below, watch the support area of 4,270 to 4,320 dollars. #九月加密市场能否突破？

It's the weekend, sharing some interesting and useful Wall Street research data:

1. The Upward Momentum of Cryptocurrency
According to Bank of America's July Global Fund Manager Survey, the average allocation of cryptocurrency in institutional asset allocation is 0.3% (the same survey shows that gold is 2.2%)

2. The Trend of AI
Capital expenditure of the 'Seven Giants' accounts for 55% of operating cash flow, while it was only 20% in 2012
- By 2030, AI will double the global data center electricity demand (equivalent to Japan's total electricity consumption); US electricity prices have risen 6.3% in the past 12 months
- The 'AI Big 10' now accounts for 39% of the US stock market, while in 1972 the 'Nifty 50' accounted for 40% of the S&P, in 1989 Japan accounted for 45% of ACWI, in 2000 technology stocks accounted for 40% of the S&P; in 1881, the market capitalization of US railroads accounted for 63% of the total market capitalization of the US stock market

3. The US Economy
- In the past 5 years, the nominal GDP growth in the US has increased by 52% (of which inflation contributed 28 percentage points and real growth contributed 24 percentage points), the fastest expansion since the stagflation of the 1970s
- Labor productivity in the US has grown by 1.3% over the past 4 quarters; comparison: 1.8% in the 2020s, 1.2% in the 2010s, 2.7% in the 2000s, 2.2% in the 1990s

Tonight, Alibaba announced impressive financial results, not only increasing its share from the food delivery battle but also showing significant growth in AI and cloud services, with Alibaba's stock rising 11% during trading.

At the same time, Alibaba's conference mentioned that it already has a global 'replacement' plan for AI chip procurement, instantly causing a collapse in American chip stocks, with Nvidia dropping 3.46% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 3%, as the familiar script of the East rising and the West falling plays out again.

Adding to this, after India was hit with a 50% tariff by the understanding king, it has turned back to the panda, and the village heads of China, India, and Russia will gather at Tiananmen on September 3.

This further intensifies geopolitical concerns, with gold breaking through the historical high of 3500, continuing to look bullish.

Driven by the decline of U.S. tech stocks, the crypto market is accelerating its decline. Besides the whales, miners have also joined in selling, with a total of 4,207 BTC sold over 12 days, amounting to about 485 million USD.

Bitcoin is testing the critical support level of 108,000. With retail investors dominating over the weekend, it is more likely to accelerate downward. If it falls below 108,000, the next support level will be around 100,000; Ethereum has broken below the support level of 4,300, with further support at 4,100 and 4,000.

U.S. stocks experienced slight fluctuations today, with trading not being very active. As the summer approaches its end, the market is waiting for Nvidia's quarterly report tonight. Wall Street expects a 60% year-on-year revenue growth for this quarter and a 55% guidance for the next quarter, which continues to be a positive for the current market.

I won't interpret this personally. From a holding perspective, the ups and downs of U.S. stocks are almost highly correlated with the movements of the market, so I won't make predictions but rather responses. Those with heavy positions can hedge a bit, while those with balanced holdings can simply maintain their positions.

For those who want to play, opening small positions in options is quite pleasant.

Bessenet made two statements today regarding the Fed and the Cook incident, scoring high on emotional intelligence by keeping the focus on Cook, "She does not deny that she committed fraud"—she has a stain—understanding that the king is trying to restore public trust in the Fed.

It perfectly connects the king and Wall Street, which has led to a decrease in market concerns. Today, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin have both stabilized significantly.

Bitcoin has rebounded against the first resistance level of 112,000. The short-term trend remains weak, and it needs to stabilize above 112,000; otherwise, it will retest the support at 108,000 below.

The second Bitcoin is also weak, but fortunately, the mid-term bullish trend has not been broken, and the range continues to maintain between 4,400 and 4,800.

Overseas markets continue to fluctuate, and after the Cook incident, there have been no major risk events, so there is no need for excessive worry. The liquidity tightness will need to wait until mid-September to ease. During this time, if the market declines, it could instead be a focus for opportunities.

Today, the biggest news in the market is that the former president signed an executive order demanding the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Cook. Let's discuss the impact of this event. On the surface, this continues the former president's pressure on the Federal Reserve and is a further escalation of calls for interest rate cuts.

However, in terms of seriousness, this move could truly shake the "foundation" of the Federal Reserve, directly targeting the interests of the "deep state" behind it; if Cook is replaced, the Federal Reserve Board will lose its 4-3 control, and the re-election veto of local Federal Reserve presidents in February next year could effectively bring the Federal Reserve under the control of the former president.

From the perspective of the historical grievances between the Federal Reserve and the American village chief, eliminating two village chiefs, abolishing four village chiefs, and causing two major economic crises has resulted in the independence of the "third U.S. central bank" - the Federal Reserve. It seems that the American village chief has an obsession with abolishing the Federal Reserve, after all, this is outside his jurisdiction, apart from the fourth power of the three branches of government.

For someone like the former president, who has already consolidated congressional, public opinion, military, police, and even church power, the Federal Reserve is the last fortress not yet conquered. Moreover, it holds the key to the midterm elections - "interest rates". It is completely normal for the former president to want to take it all at once.

From a long-term perspective, the loss of independence for the central bank will make it difficult to control inflation, lead to unrestricted government debt issuance, and ultimately affect the credit of the dollar.

The result in the capital market is: the dollar falls, U.S. bonds fall (especially long-term bonds), U.S. stocks fall; gold rises sharply, and cryptocurrencies rise slightly.

Tonight, Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting essentially announced a rate cut in September.

The most crucial statement was, 'Due to monetary policy being in a tightening range, the shift in current baseline expectations and risk balance may require us to adjust our policy stance.'

This is equivalent to directly supporting a rate cut in September, with a more dovish view on inflation, stating 'one-time, no rate hikes in the future,' and a more cautious view on employment, saying 'if there is a downturn, it will accelerate deterioration.'

Additionally, regarding the monetary framework, as we expected, they clearly abandoned the flexible inflation targeting regime and simply and directly anchored the inflation target at 2%, while still paying attention to the 'shortage' in the labor market.

Poor employment will lead to significant rate cuts, but exceptionally strong employment (beyond full employment) itself will not trigger rate hikes.

Powell, with a dovish speech, once again embodied the persona of 'stern father in words, nurturing mother in actions,' and validated my previous speculation about reaching a tacit agreement on rate cuts with the understanding king.

Regarding the implications for the capital markets:
1. Negative for the dollar, positive for non-dollar currencies.

2. Positive for risk assets (NASDAQ, crypto) + anti-inflation assets (gold, commodities).

For Bitcoin, there is still upward momentum over the weekend, with resistance at 120,000.

For Ethereum, watch for a breakout above the previous high; once broken, the resistance level will be raised to 5,000.

Tonight, the US stock market continued the significant decline from yesterday, with the Nasdaq quickly breaking below the 21,000 support level. This rebound, supported by retail investors, which was seen as a 'liberation day,' has been overshadowed by the market's long-standing concern of 'liquidity tightening,' which has finally arrived.

The sharp drop in the Nasdaq tonight is attributed not only to liquidity issues but also to a clear 'valuation correction.' There are two main triggers:

One is a research report released by MIT, stating that '95% of organizations have seen zero returns on investments in generative AI,' and 'only 5% of integrated AI pilot projects have generated millions of dollars in value,' leading to the collapse of the AI narrative.

From yesterday to today, stocks like PLTR, cryptocurrencies, and chip stocks have been heavily impacted, while the Dow Jones has shown a much calmer performance.

Another observation point is US Treasuries and gold. Tonight, US Treasury yields have plummeted, following a 'safe-haven logic' rather than a 'liquidity tightening logic,' indicating that the current market is more focused on the valuation adjustment of risk assets.

The second trigger today is Trump's pressure on Federal Reserve Governor Cook to resign (due to fraudulent behavior in applying for favorable mortgage loans). Cook has always been part of Powell's faction; if she resigns early, it would not only weaken the hawks but also provide Trump with an additional temporary appointment.

This raises further concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve in the market, which may trigger more institutional selling during this downturn.

The next question is, how long will this round of declines last?

From a liquidity perspective, this round of US Treasury issuance will continue until the end of September, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 18 will benefit liquidity, meaning liquidity tightening will likely last at least until mid-September.

From the AI narrative perspective, the next 'big event' is undoubtedly Nvidia's quarterly report on August 27. However, this is a double-edged sword; given investors' increasingly high appetite, Nvidia's performance this time may exacerbate market volatility.

According to the interest rate cut schedule, the next important date is this Friday's Jackson Hole meeting. If Powell gives a 'rate cut softening' signal like last year, the market may ease. If he continues to maintain a strong stance against rate cuts, then the decline will continue.

Of course, there is also the final X factor, or lifeline, which is Trump and Besant. They have the capability and willingness to step in and make statements or provide liquidity to rescue the market; it just depends on the timing. Perhaps Trump himself wants to create a golden opportunity to buy at the bottom, then...

The capital market has been quite active recently. A-shares have surged, but Hong Kong stocks haven't followed suit. Bitcoin has taken the lead in a sharp correction, and the Nasdaq has followed suit today. The underlying reasons all point to liquidity.

The Federal Reserve's "safety cushion" of reverse repurchase agreements, known as OnRRPs, has only $40 billion left. They're about to start draining bank reserves, which will suddenly increase the crowding-out effect on the market.

Bank reserves currently stand at $3.3 trillion, including $1 trillion in excess reserves. The market is also facing a net issuance of approximately $300 billion in US Treasury bonds, pushing liquidity from "ample" to "tight."

This is particularly hard on assets requiring liquidity: cryptocurrencies, the Nasdaq, and long-term US bonds.

To change this situation, the Federal Reserve or the Treasury needs to act, otherwise the market trend will continue its correction.

The Federal Reserve is essentially hands-off, with no incentive to increase liquidity. We can only rely on Powell and Jackson for this weekend's announcement. We're thankful Hole did a dovish meeting.

Bessant, on his part, has the will but not the means. The Ministry of Finance's TGA account has just returned to 550 billion. If the market drastically changes, how much can Bessant allocate for bond repurchases?

Of course, Bessant's ability to talk is impressive, so a large-scale crisis is unlikely, but a short-term market correction is inevitable. #加密市场回调

Bitcoin has fallen from $124,000 to below $115,000, leading to over $1 billion in liquidations in the crypto derivatives market, marking the largest scale of long liquidations since early August this year.
Liquidity stress is evident: USDC financing costs are rising, with over-the-counter (OTC) USDC lending costs continuously increasing since July, while on-chain lending rates remain stable. The spread between the two has widened to the highest level since the end of 2024, indicating that off-chain dollar demand far exceeds on-chain liquidity.
ETH lending costs are rising: In July, Aave experienced a wave of withdrawals, pushing Ethereum lending rates above Ethereum staking yields, disrupting the popular 'circular leverage' strategy (using staked ETH as collateral to borrow more ETH). This resulted in a rapid exit from staking positions, causing the exit queue for the Ethereum beacon chain to set a record of 13 days!

The US-Russia talks lasted for 3 hours, and as we expected, no substantial results were achieved, but the significance behind it is profound.

First, on the Russian side, they brought back important strategic consensus, that is, US-Russia easing, with plans to restore air travel, jointly develop Arctic shipping routes, and even explore outer space.

As for peace between Russia and Ukraine, there is no rush; they will talk slowly, and the situation at least will not escalate seriously.

Russia's demands, besides territory, include how to extract more benefits and leverage from Europe and the US.

The US demands revolve around the 'Nobel Peace Prize' for the one who understands it, withdrawing from conflicts, and cheaper energy to reduce inflation.

Impact on global major assets: - Weak dollar
This is the most direct effect, as the one who understands it and Bessent focus more on internal manufacturing prosperity and bubbles, which is beneficial for the midterm elections.

Further depreciation of the dollar is a trend.

- Beneficial for the euro and European stocks
Europe will continue to expand its fiscal policies, further support Ukraine's security, and has a $500 billion reconstruction plan for the next 10 years.

The decline of the dollar will also support the rise of the euro.

- Energy
With expectations for peace and US-Russia cooperation on Arctic shipping routes, oil prices are expected to fall further or remain low.

- Gold
In the short term, it will be negatively affected by easing, but in the long term, the trend of dollar depreciation + the debt cycle will still drive benefits for gold and cryptocurrencies; a strategy of watching for dips can be considered.

- Commodities
Copper and industrial metals will benefit from the expectations of Russia-Ukraine reconstruction. As for when to trade, it may slowly unfold, and we still need to see the recovery of US PMI and China PPI.

Moreover, achieving comprehensive peace between Russia and Ukraine may still take a year or even several years, including the underlying forces from both sides, as there are still elements that do not wish for a ceasefire; we should not underestimate this.

If August CPI and PCE continue to rebound due to tariffs, the stagflation that the Federal Reserve is most worried about will become more apparent.

This is unfavorable for U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, but beneficial for gold and U.S. Treasuries.

Considering liquidity, there is still room for a pullback in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies from August to September.

After the rate cut in September, the economy will catch its breath, which will benefit cyclical sectors in U.S. stocks: real estate, industrials, energy, banks, and small-cap stocks are expected to perform well.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing declines tonight due to liquidity effects and profit-taking; be aware of the risk of continued declines over the weekend, as longs may be liquidated.

Support levels for Bitcoin are 115,000 and 110,000; support levels for Ethereum are 4,300 and 4,000.

Tonight's U.S. July retail sales rose 0.5% month-on-month, slightly below the expected 0.6%. Last month was revised from 0.6% to 0.9%, indicating that consumption remains resilient, but is gradually slowing down.

Out of 13 categories, 9 recorded growth, with auto sales leading all categories, mainly due to expectations of rising tariffs, while spending at restaurants and bars—the only service category in the retail report—saw its largest decline since February.

Meanwhile, tonight's preliminary Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for August is 58.6, lower than the expected 62, with a one-year inflation expectation of 4.9%, higher than the expected 4.4%, also indicating a stagflation structure.

In the U.S. GDP, manufacturing, real estate investment, and government investment have all significantly declined, while consumption continues to grow, but at a slowing rate.

If the August CPI and PCE continue to rebound due to tariffs, the stagflation that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about will become more apparent, which is unfavorable for U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, but beneficial for gold and U.S. Treasuries.

Considering liquidity, there is still room for a correction in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies from August to September!

The inflation from August to December will continue to rise, and the U.S. economy faces a weak recovery combined with inflation shocks.

Based on the macroeconomic environment of 2024, this combination suggests that U.S. stocks will decline, and the Federal Reserve will suppress market expectations to 'clear' the stock market and return to reasonable valuations.

However, this year is different; a new variable has emerged—Bessent. He has become the 'supporting hand' and hopes for three interest rate cuts within the year.

From two interviews yesterday, Bessent openly 'guided' the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 150-175 basis points, 'guided' the Bank of Japan to raise rates, and 'guided' Wall Street on how to price the U.S. Treasury yield curve.

This has never happened in history; it's like one person is in charge of both fiscal and monetary policy, and not just in the U.S., but globally!

Since Bessent took office, it must be said that he has the strength to lead, although it doesn't conform to historical norms, the market must learn to accept it, just like the market went from underestimating the 'knowledge king' to now realizing that everything the 'knowledge king' said has been accomplished!

After the pancake reached a new high of 12.4, it fell below 120,000 due to PPI, with support at 118,000 and 116,000, and resistance continuing at 120,000 and 124,000.

The second pancake nearly reached a new high of 4800 but has now retraced to 4600, with support at 4580, 4480, and 4280, and resistance at 4800.