波段信

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Tom Lee: Ethereum has bottomed out and is rebounding

Tom Lee stated in a recent podcast that "BitMine believes #Ethereum has bottomed out."

As long as 87600 does not break,
the main force will continue to fluctuate and rise to induce more investors.
On December 16th, when the non-farm payrolls are announced, a group of people will be trapped.
On the contrary, if 87600 breaks, then sorry, even if it rebounds to 96000, it's gone.
Time will tell you the answer.
In conclusion, the decline of BTC is not over! #BTC

Muttering is not the bottom
BTC is too weak
There is a high probability it is still a downward continuation
On December 16, the U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released, I would like to remind you of the risk:
If BTC suddenly surges to 96000-98000, everyone should not chase the highs, I instead believe it is a good shorting opportunity, BTC still has the risk of continuing to pull back and hitting a new low below 80600. #BTC

Let's talk about something everyone loves to watch. This time, we can set aside interest rate cuts and the dot plot from the FOMC; RMP (Reserve Management Purchase) is the game changer. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, this $40 billion/month purchasing plan is more direct and effective than a 25 basis point interest rate cut. The ongoing debate in the market about the Bitcoin halving cycle clashing with the economic cycle, which was delayed for two years due to the pandemic, may have found an answer. Does anyone remember the last time the Federal Reserve restarted repo operations in 2019?

The "Repo Crisis" in the autumn of 2019 is essentially the same as the current RMP (Reserve Management Purchase), the only difference being that the Federal Reserve does not want to call it QE (Quantitative Easing). But if an animal looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it is a duck.

In September 2019, the overnight repo rate in the U.S. suddenly soared to 10%, causing a "money crunch." Powell announced monthly purchases of $60 billion in short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) and repeatedly emphasized, "This is NOT QE." Does this formula sound familiar?

This time, the Fed announced a $40 billion purchase of short-term bonds over the next 30 days, citing the reason as "maintaining sufficient reserves." This follows the 2019 script closely, nominally fixing the pipeline, but in reality just injecting liquidity.

Based on the experience of 2019, we cannot simply conclude that Bitcoin will rise immediately, as there may be a "liquidity lag" similar to Q4 2019. The market may initially react to the hawkish comments on the "Fed pausing interest rate cuts" with a risk-off response, or it may pull back due to profit-taking at year-end.

In the end, it may take until next year, with base money injected into the banking system, along with an increase in the TGA account balance during the busy tax season in April, for the overflowing liquidity to seek high-beta assets.

The big one is coming
Tonight BTC might take off
The reason is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 3 AM
Rate cut, the shoe drops, a sharp decline followed by a rise? #BTC

Finally, all the macro data will return to normal updates in January,
completely shaking off the shadow of the last shutdown.
Although there is still a risk of another shutdown of the U.S. government before January 30,
the actual probability of a shutdown is much smaller than last time.

People often say that the cryptocurrency market is risky, but the recent explosion at the Zhejiang Gold Center is genuinely frightening. Those who are unaware might think this is a state-owned enterprise with a prestigious reputation, and that it would never collapse. In reality, this is privately funded, led by the Xiangyuan Group. However, before the explosion, many people either deceived themselves into thinking that it had been stable for over a decade, harboring a false sense of security, or they simply did not pay attention to changes in shareholders.

At a time when the economy is still in a downward cycle, and the human resource pool is about to overflow, the ingrained thinking formed during the previous economic cycle really needs to be reconsidered.

The cryptocurrency market is actually similar; each round of play is different. Those who enter the new era with outdated thinking are undoubtedly the ones who end up paying the price.

I do not trust Trump,
I also do not trust the future Federal Reserve Chairman Hassett
I only believe in breakthrough tactics, see the breakthrough, charge!
Hundreds of years ago, the ancestor Livermore played it this way. #BTC

Breakthrough, efficient operation, charge! #BTC

93100 broke through
This week watch 96000-98000 #BTC

Let's put it this way, Hassert's statement that Trump can drop it as much as he wants is really boosting market confidence. BTC is rising in response, and the US stock market is just a bit away from its historical high. I'm feeling an itch to try shorting at a high point before the FOMC, betting on hawkish comments... but that high point has to be 98k-100k for me to dare. #BTC

I didn’t expect that silver, which nobody mentioned a few years ago, has now completely rubbed the entire cryptocurrency landscape into the ground...

Back then, there were terms like 'digital silver', 'crypto silver', and 'on-chain silver'... Now, all of them combined aren't even enough to carry silver's shoes, it's too tragic..

BTC is fluctuating, waiting for direction selection.
If it breaks through 93100, it will accelerate upward.
On the contrary, if it falls below 85000-86000, there is a risk of new lows.
The fundamentals seem to be improving, and the shadow chairman Hassett seems to be starting to play a role. #BTC

The military is still weak
Be cautious of another pullback risk before the downtrend line breaks #BTC

Sure enough, this is the way #BTC

Next Monday's market change #BTC

Strange things are happening
Tonight BTC will definitely have big fluctuations
The short-term positioning time is tonight
Normally, economic data in winter time is usually released at 21:30
But damn it, have you noticed that the US PCE data is actually released at 23:00 tonight
And the New York opening is at 22:30
So I damn well have reason to believe that this is a trap
The main forces intentionally arranged to postpone the PCE release to 23:00
The purpose is to wait for the time period of maximum liquidity to come, which is beneficial for the main forces to manipulate
So tonight there must be a big fluctuation reason for this, as for the direction whether it's a rebound upwards or a bottoming downwards, it depends on how this oscillation range moves, currently oscillating in the range of 90600-94000
Once it breaks through 94000, watch for 96000-98000
On the contrary, if it falls below 90600, there is a risk of further bottoming out and correction.
This damn thing isn't really bad news, I tend to lean towards the long side, continue the rebound,
The target remains unchanged, looking at 96000-98000
However, be sure to set your stop loss, DYOR
#BTC