PAXG Today's Core Analysis: PAXG experienced a slight rebound today due to safe-haven buying replenishment + central bank gold purchases providing support + the combination of technical oversold correction.
Core News
- Geopolitical Risk Repeated: Tensions in the Middle East, increased deployment of US aircraft carriers, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and cautious market sentiment over the weekend led to a flow of funds back into gold-related assets. - Central Bank Gold Purchases Providing Support: The People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 14 consecutive months, and global central banks purchased over 50 tons of gold in the first two weeks of January, supporting prices with long-term allocation demand. - Macroeconomic Expectation Game: The US initial jobless claims data on January 17 was stronger than expected, causing a short-term rise in the dollar, but after a sharp drop in gold prices, the market still maintains long-term expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, driving an oversold rebound. - Technical Recovery: After a rapid drop in gold prices the previous day, low-level buying entered the market, representing a pullback rebound within a fluctuating upward trend, not a trend reversal signal. Over the weekend, major global markets were closed, and fluctuations were mostly driven by liquidity. On Monday, attention should be paid to the dollar index, US Treasury yields, and ETF fund flows, while being wary of insufficient sustainability of the rebound.
A federal judge in California has rejected OpenAI and Microsoft's request to dismiss the lawsuit filed by Musk. The Musk v. OpenAI case is set to go to jury trial in April, and recently, Musk's side formally filed a claim for $134 billion in unjust enrichment.
The Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts in January, with gold rising above $4,600 per ounce, setting a new record. #BTC走势分析
According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, in December 2025, non-farm employment in the United States increased by 50,000, below the market expectation of 70,000; the total job gains for October and November were revised downward by 76,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%.
Following the release of the non-farm data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January 2026 have further cooled. Multiple institutions surveyed expect the first rate cut in 2026 may occur in June, with the second possibly in December.
Huang Jun, a special analyst at FXTM, told reporters: "We expect gold to remain bullish in 2026, potentially even rising above $5,000 per ounce." He attributes this mainly to safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks, while also noting that changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy will influence gold price movements.
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