无悟

1️⃣: Before the age of 30, do not buy a house, do not buy a car, do not get married, invest all cash flow into self-improvement and high-growth sectors.
2️⃣: Marriage is the closest and also the most dangerous partnership system in human history, and most people are not capable of being good partners before the age of 30.
3️⃣: Investing in yourself is not about taking a bunch of courses, but rather spending 20% of your time on experimentation and 80% on reviewing and iterating.
4️⃣: Spend money on the information density of top global cities, rather than on housing loans in county towns.
5️⃣: Treat your social media accounts as equity that can be infinitely leveraged; fans are future cash flow.
6️⃣: Earning money legally is a prerequisite for caring about humanity and changing the world.
7️⃣: Financial freedom is not about how much money you have in your account, but rather not having to sacrifice emotions, dignity, and attention for money.
8️⃣: The sooner you acknowledge your incompetence, the faster you can embark on the path to wealth; acknowledgment is the first step to change.
9️⃣: True high-level leverage is a combination of capital, traffic, and policy; missing one leg means you can never grow big.
🔟: Compound interest does not only belong to money; health, cognition, and brand also have compound curves, provided you live long enough.

看清趋势
理解趋势
买入趋势
持有趋势
享受泡沫

Traditional cycle tail 🆚

QT ends on December 1st
Global continuous interest rate cuts
Expansion of the balance sheet in the first quarter of 2026
Powell retires in May
Dovish official takes office
Mid-2026 $300 billion air drop

Stay optimistic…

The big pie bull market has continued since the beginning of 2023
It seems that there hasn't been a bull market outside of foreign currencies
Part of the reason is that during this cycle, the Federal Reserve has maintained high interest rates
And has not yet achieved the effect of releasing bubbles

Tonight, the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates to 3.75-4%
At the same time, it may stop the asset-liability sheet contraction (balance sheet reduction) that has lasted for more than two years
The Federal Reserve will no longer sell assets next week but will focus on lowering interest rates
It may drop to 3.25-3.5% by January next year

The period from September to December last year and from September to December this year belongs to the interest rate reduction phase
It is highly likely to be a bull market. After Powell steps down in May next year,
The new Federal Reserve head appointed by Trump is expected to be more dovish
The intensity of monetary easing will increase, and the market may be stronger than this year

The traditional cycle of the cryptocurrency market is in this year's fourth quarter (peak)
But next year's interest rate cuts or balance sheet expansion will have a greater impact on the cryptocurrency market
Remain optimistic…

The door to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has officially opened
A 25 basis point cut in September, consensus forming for a cut in October
Lowering interest rates without a recession
Is likely to trigger a bull market and bubbles
On Friday, the three major US stock indices all closed at new highs
(The US stock indices and gold have reached new highs dozens of times this year)
The cryptocurrency market is correcting alone, with this round of cuts expected to be 5-6 times
Interest rates are expected to drop from the current 4-4.25% to around 3%
The market is gradually shifting towards a rate cut sentiment
Patiently holding positions and waiting…

The market has seen a significant drop due to previous negative factors. The information regarding 'Trump's aggressive tax increases and the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts' indicates that this week's violent rebound is due to Trump reaching an agreement with the UK, breaking the deadlock and reducing tariff concerns. The key to whether the market can reverse and continue to rise lies in whether Trump can successfully reach agreements with other countries in the future. (A Fox News reporter stated that the White House is preparing agreements with India, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, expected to be similar to the one with the UK, which needs attention.) Next Tuesday, the US will release the inflation CPI (previous value 2.4%, expected value 2.4%). If the CPI can further price in a rate cut in July or June, the combination of the Federal Reserve and Trump could significantly increase the likelihood of a market reversal (attention is needed for next Tuesday's CPI).

The market is pricing in a 60-70% probability of interest rate cuts in June. Complete pricing for interest rate cuts in July. Typically, rate cuts will be delayed rather than advanced. Focus on GDP/non-farm payrolls and unemployment data this Wednesday and Friday. Previous GDP was 2.4%, expected value is 0.4%. Core PCE for the first quarter was previously 2.6%, expected value is 3.2%. Previous unemployment rate was 4.2%, expected value is 4.2%. Previous non-farm employment was 228,000, expected value is 135,000. If these three data points show significant weakness, it will raise expectations for interest rate cuts in June, or even May.

BTC, while being affected by the decline in U.S. stock indices,
has finally been influenced by the rise in gold prices.
At the beginning of this week, BTC's safe-haven narrative aligned with gold.
The weak dollar and uncertainty in U.S. bonds
stimulated market demand for dollar safe-haven assets.
BTC and altcoins have likely reached a bottom in this phase.
The transition to the next narrative is the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in June.
Trump continues to criticize Fed Chair Powell,
blaming the decline in U.S. stock indices, the risk of U.S. recession, etc., on Powell,
making him realize the pressure of not cutting interest rates.
In June, we return to the main narrative of interest rate cuts and enter the next narrative of continuous rate cuts.

Powell's willingness to cut interest rates is inconsistent with market expectations
The Fed's dot plot indicates two rate cuts this year
Market expectations are 3-4 cuts
The Fed's hawkish goal is to prevent inflation from rising
Market expectations for rate cuts are necessary to save the US economy
In the face of short-term inflationary pressures, Powell may have no choice but to be hawkish
In the face of long-term economic pressures, Powell may also have no choice but to cut rates
The Fed has two policy meetings in May and June
The market is waiting for rate cuts...

Where will the turning point of the market be?
When the focus of the market shifts from the tariff/debt chaos caused by Trump
to the Federal Reserve stepping in to buy bonds and cut interest rates,
it is highly likely to be the turning point of the market.

In the short term, if Trump does not impose new tariffs,
the market may go through a period of bottoming out,
waiting for the Federal Reserve to further clarify the interest rate cuts for recovery.
If Trump continues to fan the flames with tariffs,
the negative impact may not be fully realized, and there may still be a new bottom (low probability).
(Note the 90-day suspension period of Trump, changes may occur during this time)

This round of Bitcoin is still the same Bitcoin.
Other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, have performed poorly.
The difference between this round and the previous one is
that it did not catch the large interest rate cuts and liquidity injections from the Federal Reserve.
There was only one quarter of rate cuts at the end of last year.
Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate remains as high as 4.25-4.5%,
which is about 125 basis points away from the neutral rate of 3% (mid-2026).
Currently waiting for the Federal Reserve to provide an environment for interest rate cuts and liquidity.

Historically, all sharp declines due to certain events have been opportunities to make money

In 2016, the exchange was raided for inspection
In 2017, 94
In 2018, the BCH hash war
In March 2020
In May 2022, the LUNA crash
In November 2022, the FTT crash
In November 2023, CZ pleaded guilty for violating U.S. anti-money laundering laws
In August 2024, the Japanese bank crashed
In April 2025, Trump raised tariffs

All of the above are external and internal negative events
That triggered market crashes
The common point during these events
Is that they spread panic and accelerate the downward trend

I tend to believe that the interest rate cut cycle has not ended
The bull market is still ongoing, and BTC will still reach new highs
However, various actions during Trump's term
May continue to exacerbate short-term volatility
Causing corrections to come more often and peaks to arrive later
I believe the sign that the bull market has ended is
When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates down to between 2.5% and 3%

Although he is the chosen one
That bullet didn't 🎯 hit his head
But it hit my account
On Monday, Trump is going to mess with tariffs again
Now Trump's credibility is so low that he has trouble getting a pack of spicy strips on credit at the elementary school gate.

The hat is always worn #WIF

When will Bitcoin's market capitalization share turn downward? 👇

Such questions cannot be accurately predicted, but structurally, two directions worth observing can be broken down:

The first scenario (yellow simulated K in the figure): Bitcoin's current market share is approximately 63%, which is still some distance from the previous high of 72% in 2021. Therefore, if it approaches or even tests 72% afterwards, that could indeed be a potential "turning point".

The second scenario (green simulated K line in the figure): The current structure is still rising unilaterally along the EMA moving average. If it starts to consolidate or breaks through EMA20, that could be another "turning point". #山寨季倒计时

Do not sell when the market is in a major crisis
Do not buy when the market is in a major opportunity
Investment behavior is best when it
contradicts market sentiment