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Friends who want to earn rice, follow my Silk Road, welcome to make Dan together!
Chat Room ID: tc325tzr
#美国政府停摆 $BTC $ETH
Chat Room ID: tc325tzr
#美国政府停摆 $BTC $ETH
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12.15
Gold
The performance of gold on Friday night, does it make you excited yet anxious? The gold price first dramatically surged, with a large bullish candle soaring to around 4360, followed by a sharp drop of 100 dollars, reaching a low of 4260. This rollercoaster market is bound to keep countless traders awake all night.
Currently, a clear bearish engulfing pattern has emerged on the four-hour chart, with the top bearish candle directly covering the previous large bullish candle, which is a strong breakout signal. Although there was a slight rebound in the early session, the momentum is weak, and the upward trend quickly dissipates, with the downward trend still dominating the market, and the resistance above remains strong.
Key resistance is focused on the 4330-4340 range, while support is concentrated around the 4270-4250 area. Given the clear peak signal in the short term, the probability of a price drop in gold is higher, and any rebound should be viewed as an opportunity for short positions.
Strategy: Short gold at 4330, stop loss at 4345, target at 4250
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks, and caution is required when entering the market #现货黄金 #美联储降息
Gold
The performance of gold on Friday night, does it make you excited yet anxious? The gold price first dramatically surged, with a large bullish candle soaring to around 4360, followed by a sharp drop of 100 dollars, reaching a low of 4260. This rollercoaster market is bound to keep countless traders awake all night.
Currently, a clear bearish engulfing pattern has emerged on the four-hour chart, with the top bearish candle directly covering the previous large bullish candle, which is a strong breakout signal. Although there was a slight rebound in the early session, the momentum is weak, and the upward trend quickly dissipates, with the downward trend still dominating the market, and the resistance above remains strong.
Key resistance is focused on the 4330-4340 range, while support is concentrated around the 4270-4250 area. Given the clear peak signal in the short term, the probability of a price drop in gold is higher, and any rebound should be viewed as an opportunity for short positions.
Strategy: Short gold at 4330, stop loss at 4345, target at 4250
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks, and caution is required when entering the market #现货黄金 #美联储降息
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This week's summary
An unsuccessful basket can simply be summarized in one phrase: "lost."
In contrast, a successful basket is much more complex, encompassing "direction," "entry point," "patience," "calm mindset," and "exit timing."
A basket can be simple or complex; it depends on how you approach it. #现货黄金 #美联储降息
An unsuccessful basket can simply be summarized in one phrase: "lost."
In contrast, a successful basket is much more complex, encompassing "direction," "entry point," "patience," "calm mindset," and "exit timing."
A basket can be simple or complex; it depends on how you approach it. #现货黄金 #美联储降息
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12.4
Yesterday, the gold price quickly surged after testing the 4190-4210 area again, solidifying the double bottom pattern on the hourly chart—this trading zone has repeatedly validated effective support, and each time it is touched, it triggers a bullish counterattack, becoming an unshakeable lifeline for the bottom in the short term.
Looking at the four-hour chart, it is an even more direct representation of bullish strength: previously, it oscillated below the moving averages to build a bottom, but now a strong bullish candlestick has forcefully broken through the moving average resistance, directly turning the originally flat moving average upward, forming a resonance signal of "moving average turning point + strong bullish body", fully releasing bullish momentum.
Strategy: Buy gold at 4207, stop loss at 4193, target at 4280
Disclaimer: Investment carries risks, and one must be cautious when entering the market.
Yesterday, the gold price quickly surged after testing the 4190-4210 area again, solidifying the double bottom pattern on the hourly chart—this trading zone has repeatedly validated effective support, and each time it is touched, it triggers a bullish counterattack, becoming an unshakeable lifeline for the bottom in the short term.
Looking at the four-hour chart, it is an even more direct representation of bullish strength: previously, it oscillated below the moving averages to build a bottom, but now a strong bullish candlestick has forcefully broken through the moving average resistance, directly turning the originally flat moving average upward, forming a resonance signal of "moving average turning point + strong bullish body", fully releasing bullish momentum.
Strategy: Buy gold at 4207, stop loss at 4193, target at 4280
Disclaimer: Investment carries risks, and one must be cautious when entering the market.
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【Gold Market Trend Analysis】
Gold showed an upward fluctuation in the morning, on the hourly chart, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are rising, the TRIX trend indicator has a golden cross, and the MACD indicator's fast and slow lines are below the 0 axis with a golden cross. The red momentum bars are increasing, indicating a bullish trend. The intraday trading of gold is inclined towards buying on dips, with a focus on the mid-track support at $4207. If the pullback does not break this position, one can buy in line with the trend. The upper focus is on the breakout situation of Monday's high at $4265. Once this resistance level is stabilized, there is potential for gold prices to open up further upward space.
【12.3 Gold Trading Suggestions】
1. Buy gold around $4200-$4207 on dips, stop loss at $4199, take profit at $4230-$4240.
2. Suggestions are for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market #黄金 #财经
Gold showed an upward fluctuation in the morning, on the hourly chart, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are rising, the TRIX trend indicator has a golden cross, and the MACD indicator's fast and slow lines are below the 0 axis with a golden cross. The red momentum bars are increasing, indicating a bullish trend. The intraday trading of gold is inclined towards buying on dips, with a focus on the mid-track support at $4207. If the pullback does not break this position, one can buy in line with the trend. The upper focus is on the breakout situation of Monday's high at $4265. Once this resistance level is stabilized, there is potential for gold prices to open up further upward space.
【12.3 Gold Trading Suggestions】
1. Buy gold around $4200-$4207 on dips, stop loss at $4199, take profit at $4230-$4240.
2. Suggestions are for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market #黄金 #财经
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I think the global market might really face problems now, as there are two unexpected events that make short sellers very happy.
1. Japan's interest rate hike signal is clear, and its impact on the global market may exceed expectations: Currently, Japan has not officially announced an interest rate hike, but on December 1st, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda clearly stated that they would assess the pros and cons of raising interest rates at the policy meeting on the 18th - 19th of this month, which is the clearest signal of a rate hike this year. This statement has already caused the yen exchange rate to rise and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to reach its highest level since 2008. Once the interest rate hike is implemented, trillions of yen in carry trades will have to be unwound, and investors will sell U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and other overseas assets to buy back yen, which will not only pressure the valuation of U.S. tech stocks but also put emerging markets under pressure from capital outflows. Moreover, as one of the largest foreign buyers of U.S. bonds, the return of funds to Japan will further push up U.S. bond yields, and global equities and other risk assets will likely face significant selling pressure. Societe Generale even warned that this could drag global economic growth down to 1% in 2026.
2. Rumors of Powell's early departure lack basis, making it difficult to trigger a substantial trust crisis: Recently circulated news about Powell resigning on December 1st is merely unfounded rumors on social media. On one hand, the Federal Reserve's official schedule shows that Powell's activity that day is a speech rather than an emergency meeting; on the other hand, his term as chairman lasts until May 2026, and he has repeatedly stated publicly that he will serve until the end of his term. Such rumors occur every month and have not been confirmed by mainstream media, and it is currently difficult to shake the market's confidence in the stability of the U.S. financial system. More often, they are short-term disturbances in market sentiment and are unlikely to trigger an explosive release of risk-averse emotions. #加密市场反弹 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC $ETH
1. Japan's interest rate hike signal is clear, and its impact on the global market may exceed expectations: Currently, Japan has not officially announced an interest rate hike, but on December 1st, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda clearly stated that they would assess the pros and cons of raising interest rates at the policy meeting on the 18th - 19th of this month, which is the clearest signal of a rate hike this year. This statement has already caused the yen exchange rate to rise and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to reach its highest level since 2008. Once the interest rate hike is implemented, trillions of yen in carry trades will have to be unwound, and investors will sell U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and other overseas assets to buy back yen, which will not only pressure the valuation of U.S. tech stocks but also put emerging markets under pressure from capital outflows. Moreover, as one of the largest foreign buyers of U.S. bonds, the return of funds to Japan will further push up U.S. bond yields, and global equities and other risk assets will likely face significant selling pressure. Societe Generale even warned that this could drag global economic growth down to 1% in 2026.
2. Rumors of Powell's early departure lack basis, making it difficult to trigger a substantial trust crisis: Recently circulated news about Powell resigning on December 1st is merely unfounded rumors on social media. On one hand, the Federal Reserve's official schedule shows that Powell's activity that day is a speech rather than an emergency meeting; on the other hand, his term as chairman lasts until May 2026, and he has repeatedly stated publicly that he will serve until the end of his term. Such rumors occur every month and have not been confirmed by mainstream media, and it is currently difficult to shake the market's confidence in the stability of the U.S. financial system. More often, they are short-term disturbances in market sentiment and are unlikely to trigger an explosive release of risk-averse emotions. #加密市场反弹 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC $ETH
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Musk: AI Can Solve the U.S. Debt Crisis in Three Years
In a conversation released on Sunday with investor and podcast host Nikhil Kamath, Musk stated that the only way for the U.S. to escape its deepening fiscal plight is through productivity driven by AI and robots.
Musk said this is almost the only way to resolve the U.S. debt crisis. He added that it is likely to bring about significant deflation.
According to data from the U.S. Treasury, as of November 26, the national debt of the United States has reached $38.34 trillion, more than double what it was ten years ago.
Musk stated that AI currently does not have enough capability to boost productivity to exceed the inflation rate, but this is about to change. He said that within three years or less, his judgment is that the output of goods and services will surpass the rate of inflation.
Musk said this is almost the only way to resolve the U.S. debt crisis. He added that it is likely to bring about significant deflation.
According to data from the U.S. Treasury, as of November 26, the national debt of the United States has reached $38.34 trillion, more than double what it was ten years ago.
Musk stated that AI currently does not have enough capability to boost productivity to exceed the inflation rate, but this is about to change. He said that within three years or less, his judgment is that the output of goods and services will surpass the rate of inflation.
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【Today's Key Focus on Economic Data and Events: December 1, 2025, Monday】
① 15:30 Switzerland October Actual Retail Sales Year-on-Year
② 16:50 France November Manufacturing PMI Final
③ 16:55 Germany November Manufacturing PMI Final
④ 17:00 Eurozone November Manufacturing PMI Final
⑤ 17:30 United Kingdom November Manufacturing PMI Final
⑥ 17:30 United Kingdom October Central Bank Mortgage Approval
⑦ 22:45 United States November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final
⑧ 23:00 United States November ISM Manufacturing PMI
#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
① 15:30 Switzerland October Actual Retail Sales Year-on-Year
② 16:50 France November Manufacturing PMI Final
③ 16:55 Germany November Manufacturing PMI Final
④ 17:00 Eurozone November Manufacturing PMI Final
⑤ 17:30 United Kingdom November Manufacturing PMI Final
⑥ 17:30 United Kingdom October Central Bank Mortgage Approval
⑦ 22:45 United States November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final
⑧ 23:00 United States November ISM Manufacturing PMI
#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
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Is the fate of the Federal Reserve being left to the Supreme Court? Wall Street is placing a 'dangerous blind bet' on the next move.
Wall Street has almost ignored Trump's various attacks on the Federal Reserve this year, but this confidence may be shaken by an upcoming ruling from the Supreme Court.
During his second term, Trump launched an intense campaign against the Federal Reserve, frequently calling for interest rate cuts and threatening to fire Chairman Powell. The central bank has cut rates twice in September and October this year, with another rate cut window approaching in December.
However, investors remain confident in the Federal Reserve's ability to combat inflation—at least according to indicators such as long-term U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations.
During his second term, Trump launched an intense campaign against the Federal Reserve, frequently calling for interest rate cuts and threatening to fire Chairman Powell. The central bank has cut rates twice in September and October this year, with another rate cut window approaching in December.
However, investors remain confident in the Federal Reserve's ability to combat inflation—at least according to indicators such as long-term U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations.
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12.1
Midday Thoughts
Bitcoin is currently showing a clear downward trend, with both technical analysis and external environment indicating a bearish dominance. In terms of technical indicators, the moving average system has formed a bearish arrangement accompanied by a death cross, and the increasing trading volume further strengthens the bearish signal. At the same time, the classic candlestick pattern Three Black Crows indicates that the market may enter a bearish reversal phase, with a high probability of prices continuing to test key support levels in the short term.
Ethereum is currently in a clear downward trend, with technical analysis showing that the price has broken below the key support level of 2805.53, accompanied by significant volume increase, indicating that market momentum is bearish, and it may further test lower support areas in the short term. The formation of a bearish arrangement and death cross in the MA further confirms the downward trend. However, the RSI indicator has entered the oversold range, and the price is below the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential for a technical rebound in the short term.
Bitcoin: near 86500-87000, looking down to 85000-84000
Ethereum: near 2830-2860, looking down to 2750-2650
#加密市场反弹 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC $ETH
Midday Thoughts
Bitcoin is currently showing a clear downward trend, with both technical analysis and external environment indicating a bearish dominance. In terms of technical indicators, the moving average system has formed a bearish arrangement accompanied by a death cross, and the increasing trading volume further strengthens the bearish signal. At the same time, the classic candlestick pattern Three Black Crows indicates that the market may enter a bearish reversal phase, with a high probability of prices continuing to test key support levels in the short term.
Ethereum is currently in a clear downward trend, with technical analysis showing that the price has broken below the key support level of 2805.53, accompanied by significant volume increase, indicating that market momentum is bearish, and it may further test lower support areas in the short term. The formation of a bearish arrangement and death cross in the MA further confirms the downward trend. However, the RSI indicator has entered the oversold range, and the price is below the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential for a technical rebound in the short term.
Bitcoin: near 86500-87000, looking down to 85000-84000
Ethereum: near 2830-2860, looking down to 2750-2650
#加密市场反弹 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC $ETH
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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda Sends Clear Signal, Possible Rate Hike in December!
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has issued the clearest signal to date, indicating that the policy board may raise the benchmark interest rate this month. He emphasized that any rate hike would only be an adjustment to the degree of accommodative policy, and the authorities will make appropriate decisions on whether to advance policy changes.
Ueda stated on Monday during a speech to local business leaders in Nagoya, Japan, that the central bank will 'weigh the pros and cons of raising policy rates by examining domestic and international economic conditions, inflation, and financial market situations, and make decisions in a timely manner.'
According to overnight index swap data, traders expect the central bank to raise interest rates by about 64% at the end of the next policy meeting on December 19. The probability of taking action before January of next year rises to 90%.
Ueda stated on Monday during a speech to local business leaders in Nagoya, Japan, that the central bank will 'weigh the pros and cons of raising policy rates by examining domestic and international economic conditions, inflation, and financial market situations, and make decisions in a timely manner.'
According to overnight index swap data, traders expect the central bank to raise interest rates by about 64% at the end of the next policy meeting on December 19. The probability of taking action before January of next year rises to 90%.
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12.1
Morning Thoughts
A new month, a new beginning! Good morning!
Relative to the daily trend structure, the overall movement is still in a downward trend. After a slow rise in the short term, there is currently a significant sign of stagflation. On the daily trend, the rebound has been pressured after reaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and multiple attempts to break through have failed, restraining the rebound. Given the overall trend structure is bearish, future operations should be treated with a high short mindset.
Big Pie: Around 91000-91500, looking down to 89000-88000
Second Pie: Around 3010-3050, looking down to 2970-2920
#加密市场反弹 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC $ETH
Morning Thoughts
A new month, a new beginning! Good morning!
Relative to the daily trend structure, the overall movement is still in a downward trend. After a slow rise in the short term, there is currently a significant sign of stagflation. On the daily trend, the rebound has been pressured after reaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and multiple attempts to break through have failed, restraining the rebound. Given the overall trend structure is bearish, future operations should be treated with a high short mindset.
Big Pie: Around 91000-91500, looking down to 89000-88000
Second Pie: Around 3010-3050, looking down to 2970-2920
#加密市场反弹 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC $ETH
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12.1
Morning Thoughts
A new month, a new beginning! Good morning!
Relative to the daily trend structure, the overall movement is still in a downward trend. After a slow rise in the short term, there is currently a significant sign of stagflation. On the daily trend, the rebound has been pressured after reaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and multiple attempts to break through have failed, restraining the rebound. Given the overall trend structure is bearish, future operations should be treated with a high short mindset.
Big Pie: Around 91000-91500, looking down to 89000-88000
Second Pie: Around 3010-3050, looking down to 2970-2920
#加密市场反弹 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC $ETH
Morning Thoughts
A new month, a new beginning! Good morning!
Relative to the daily trend structure, the overall movement is still in a downward trend. After a slow rise in the short term, there is currently a significant sign of stagflation. On the daily trend, the rebound has been pressured after reaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and multiple attempts to break through have failed, restraining the rebound. Given the overall trend structure is bearish, future operations should be treated with a high short mindset.
Big Pie: Around 91000-91500, looking down to 89000-88000
Second Pie: Around 3010-3050, looking down to 2970-2920
#加密市场反弹 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC $ETH
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Market fluctuations are severe, and there's no need to stubbornly hold on 💫 Open 3 exclusive slots for customized position optimization + cost reduction plan for swing trading, precisely breaking through to recover funds, efficient position relief, first come first served, hurry to secure your spot #ETH巨鲸增持 #特朗普加密新政
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11.29
Evening Thoughts
The weekend flight situation is generally stable, with the current Bitcoin fluctuating around 90500. After previously testing the low point without breaking it, the pullback after hitting the resistance level of 92967 is a normal adjustment within the upward trend.
Bitcoin: Around 91500-92000, looking down to 90000-89000
Second Bitcoin: Around 3035-3065, looking down to 2980-2950
#加密市场反弹 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC $ETH
Evening Thoughts
The weekend flight situation is generally stable, with the current Bitcoin fluctuating around 90500. After previously testing the low point without breaking it, the pullback after hitting the resistance level of 92967 is a normal adjustment within the upward trend.
Bitcoin: Around 91500-92000, looking down to 90000-89000
Second Bitcoin: Around 3035-3065, looking down to 2980-2950
#加密市场反弹 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC $ETH
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Floating Profit and Loss in the Currency Circle: A Trader's 'Psychological Philosopher's Stone' and Practical Guide
In the cryptocurrency market, every fluctuation of the candlestick rewrites the floating profit and loss of the account. For seasoned traders, these two numbers are never just simple indicators of profit or loss; they are the 'risk gauge' and 'test of human nature' that run through the entire trading process — they test your position management logic, stop-loss and take-profit discipline, and also reflect your mental resilience in the face of market fluctuations.
The essence of floating profit is the 'temporary reward given by the market,' yet it often becomes a 'sweet trap' for traders. When Bitcoin rises from a purchase price of $30,000 to $35,000, a $5,000 floating profit instinctively triggers greed, leading one to think, 'I should hold on a bit longer to earn more,' or anxiety with the thought, 'I must cash out quickly to avoid a pullback.' Many traders have canceled stop-losses due to excessive chasing of floating profits, ultimately turning profitable trades into losing ones; others have regretted missing out on trending markets by taking profits too early. True professional traders understand that floating profits only count when converted into actual profits; they will lock in the market's 'temporary rewards' as certain earnings through strategies such as moving stop-losses and taking profits in batches — for example, when profits reach 50% of the expected target, they first cash out a portion of their position, and the remaining position is followed by a moving stop-loss to ride the trend, thus not wasting the market movement while avoiding the risk of profit reversal.
The essence of floating profit is the 'temporary reward given by the market,' yet it often becomes a 'sweet trap' for traders. When Bitcoin rises from a purchase price of $30,000 to $35,000, a $5,000 floating profit instinctively triggers greed, leading one to think, 'I should hold on a bit longer to earn more,' or anxiety with the thought, 'I must cash out quickly to avoid a pullback.' Many traders have canceled stop-losses due to excessive chasing of floating profits, ultimately turning profitable trades into losing ones; others have regretted missing out on trending markets by taking profits too early. True professional traders understand that floating profits only count when converted into actual profits; they will lock in the market's 'temporary rewards' as certain earnings through strategies such as moving stop-losses and taking profits in batches — for example, when profits reach 50% of the expected target, they first cash out a portion of their position, and the remaining position is followed by a moving stop-loss to ride the trend, thus not wasting the market movement while avoiding the risk of profit reversal.
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