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December 9th Large Pancake
After the large pancake dipped to 89600 early in the morning and then rebounded to 91300, the bears once again increased their volume to suppress the price drop, continuing the overall range-bound fluctuation. In terms of technical structure, the moving average system continues to decline. Although the daily line has two consecutive bullish candles, the four-hour cycle is clearly under pressure, with rebounds repeatedly retreating at the upper edge of the channel. Bullish momentum has weakened and failed to break through the previous high, while the hourly level shows directionless fluctuations, with bulls and bears fiercely competing at the 90000 level. Moving forward, we will continue to maintain a high short strategy.
It is recommended to short in the 90800-91600 range on rebounds, targeting 89300-88500.
After the large pancake dipped to 89600 early in the morning and then rebounded to 91300, the bears once again increased their volume to suppress the price drop, continuing the overall range-bound fluctuation. In terms of technical structure, the moving average system continues to decline. Although the daily line has two consecutive bullish candles, the four-hour cycle is clearly under pressure, with rebounds repeatedly retreating at the upper edge of the channel. Bullish momentum has weakened and failed to break through the previous high, while the hourly level shows directionless fluctuations, with bulls and bears fiercely competing at the 90000 level. Moving forward, we will continue to maintain a high short strategy.
It is recommended to short in the 90800-91600 range on rebounds, targeting 89300-88500.
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Today's bearish rhythm has been validated by the market, with precise direction and ample space. Full of value, let's keep it up! $BTC $ETH #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐
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The rebound momentum of SOL has significantly weakened, with effective pressure forming around 140. After multiple unsuccessful attempts to break through, the probability of a retreat has increased. In terms of operation, consider gradually laying out short positions in the 140-145 range, with the first target at 135. If it breaks down, further observation can be made around 130. If it stabilizes above 140, then continue to look up at $BTC $SOL #加密市场观察 #solana
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Market Qualitative Analysis: Short Positions Remain the Main Strategy, Be Cautious of Risks in Rebounds
From the perspective of multiple time frame technical structures, the current rebound is unlikely to change the core logic of the downward trend. The weekly chart has established a downward trend, and the current rebound is merely a correction from an oversold condition; the monthly MACD has formed a bearish cross at a high position, and the daily structure is similarly under pressure. This weak pattern of multi-time frame resonance determines that the direction remains downward, and the rebound is merely a rhythmic interlude.
The key resistance zone focuses on 97000–102000. Before a trend reversal, this area will form multiple pressures. The market will not decline in a straight line, but the trend will eventually unfold according to its own trajectory; one should patiently wait for a clear short-selling window.
Three Macro Headwinds Pressing Down, December Is Bound to Be Highly Volatile
1. December 11: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision has seen a dramatic shift in market expectations—CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in December has skyrocketed to 87%. Such abrupt changes in expectations often trigger severe volatility, whether the outcome is "expectations fulfilled" or "reversal at landing," both will become key risk points in the short term.
2. December 19: The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision day; the bank's governor has released strong signals, indicating a high likelihood of initiating interest rate hikes. If this materializes, it will lead to capital flowing back to Japan, generally putting pressure on risk assets and impacting global liquidity through exchange rate channels, marking the second major uncertainty.
3. December 26: BTC's annual massive options expiry, the largest expiry day of the year, with a nominal value reaching 23 billion USD. Key data reveals:
- The maximum pain point is located at 100,000 USD
- The peak of PUT positions is concentrated at 84,000 USD, indicating that stabilizing above 100,000 USD in December will be extremely challenging, while 84,000 has become an important defense line for both bulls and bears; the quick rebound after breaking this level serves as clear evidence.
Core Summary and Strategic Perspective
The technical downward structure is clear, and the macro triple events are compounding pressure. December will be a month of extreme fluctuations in expectations and rising volatility; the key to trading lies in grasping the rhythm of fluctuations rather than prematurely determining a single direction.
Any strong rebound should be viewed as a risk release or an opportunity to position for short selling. True trending markets are likely to only unfold after the aforementioned macro events gradually materialize and the market logic is restructured. $BTC $ETH #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐
From the perspective of multiple time frame technical structures, the current rebound is unlikely to change the core logic of the downward trend. The weekly chart has established a downward trend, and the current rebound is merely a correction from an oversold condition; the monthly MACD has formed a bearish cross at a high position, and the daily structure is similarly under pressure. This weak pattern of multi-time frame resonance determines that the direction remains downward, and the rebound is merely a rhythmic interlude.
The key resistance zone focuses on 97000–102000. Before a trend reversal, this area will form multiple pressures. The market will not decline in a straight line, but the trend will eventually unfold according to its own trajectory; one should patiently wait for a clear short-selling window.
Three Macro Headwinds Pressing Down, December Is Bound to Be Highly Volatile
1. December 11: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision has seen a dramatic shift in market expectations—CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in December has skyrocketed to 87%. Such abrupt changes in expectations often trigger severe volatility, whether the outcome is "expectations fulfilled" or "reversal at landing," both will become key risk points in the short term.
2. December 19: The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision day; the bank's governor has released strong signals, indicating a high likelihood of initiating interest rate hikes. If this materializes, it will lead to capital flowing back to Japan, generally putting pressure on risk assets and impacting global liquidity through exchange rate channels, marking the second major uncertainty.
3. December 26: BTC's annual massive options expiry, the largest expiry day of the year, with a nominal value reaching 23 billion USD. Key data reveals:
- The maximum pain point is located at 100,000 USD
- The peak of PUT positions is concentrated at 84,000 USD, indicating that stabilizing above 100,000 USD in December will be extremely challenging, while 84,000 has become an important defense line for both bulls and bears; the quick rebound after breaking this level serves as clear evidence.
Core Summary and Strategic Perspective
The technical downward structure is clear, and the macro triple events are compounding pressure. December will be a month of extreme fluctuations in expectations and rising volatility; the key to trading lies in grasping the rhythm of fluctuations rather than prematurely determining a single direction.
Any strong rebound should be viewed as a risk release or an opportunity to position for short selling. True trending markets are likely to only unfold after the aforementioned macro events gradually materialize and the market logic is restructured. $BTC $ETH #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐
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In line with expectations, the evening pancake retracted around 91800 and started to rebound, currently reaching 93256, moving up over 1400 points. If it doesn't break 92700, continue looking at 95000. $BTC $ETH #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐
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