盯盘眼
公众号:A盯盘眼，六年经验积累成就现在的自己,用心学习你也可以。
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In the cryptocurrency world, has the bad news run its course and is a change coming?
After the Bitcoin weekly close, it directly retraced, and now it’s almost at the key level of 85000 USD～ Previously, it was mentioned to see if it could recover to 90800 USD, but the market didn’t see much movement over the weekend due to the US holiday, just hovering above 90800. Who would have thought that the Bank of Japan suddenly 'turned hawkish', hinting at a possible interest rate hike in December? US stock futures and Bitcoin were both affected by liquidity; Bitcoin couldn’t hold the key level and retraced again. 😮
Why does the possibility of Japan raising interest rates have such a big impact? Just look at the data; Japan's 2-year government bond yield has skyrocketed past 1%, and coupled with the central bank's recent actions, the market believes the probability of a rate hike in December is over 60%, and even up to 90% in January next year. It’s important to note that Japan has had three decades of stagnation with long-term low/negative interest rates, making borrowing extremely cheap. Institutions love to borrow yen to exchange for other currencies to invest in global stocks and bonds for arbitrage (this is known as yen carry trade). Once Japan raises interest rates, borrowing costs will increase, and highly leveraged players will have to liquidate their positions, selling off US stocks, treasury bonds, and other assets, significantly withdrawing liquidity from the market. Furthermore, the market is more concerned that Japan will exit its long-term loose monetary policy, which would cool off the yen carry trade that injects liquidity into the global market. This would have a clear short-term impact on liquidity-sensitive markets, and risk assets like Bitcoin will certainly bear the brunt of it～
However, don’t panic too much; a rate hike in Japan is just a short-term shock. The larger influence on global liquidity levels still comes from the Federal Reserve. On December 1st, the Federal Reserve has already stopped tapering, and on December 10th, the probability of a rate cut by FOMC is over 80%, indicating a trend towards easing. But currently, the US is in a standstill, and events like Japan raising interest rates may disturb short-term liquidity. The global financial system is inherently interconnected, and coupled with the uncertainty brought by policies over the past year, Bitcoin has also suffered quite a bit. 😔
In the short term, keep a close eye on the 85000 USD support level, with the core focus on the reaction after the US stock market opens. If it can hold, there’s a high probability of a rebound this week, forming a short-term double bottom to challenge 90800 USD again; if it directly breaks down, there’s little support until 74000 USD, and the price may quickly test lower. ⏬
After the Bitcoin weekly close, it directly retraced, and now it’s almost at the key level of 85000 USD～ Previously, it was mentioned to see if it could recover to 90800 USD, but the market didn’t see much movement over the weekend due to the US holiday, just hovering above 90800. Who would have thought that the Bank of Japan suddenly 'turned hawkish', hinting at a possible interest rate hike in December? US stock futures and Bitcoin were both affected by liquidity; Bitcoin couldn’t hold the key level and retraced again. 😮
Why does the possibility of Japan raising interest rates have such a big impact? Just look at the data; Japan's 2-year government bond yield has skyrocketed past 1%, and coupled with the central bank's recent actions, the market believes the probability of a rate hike in December is over 60%, and even up to 90% in January next year. It’s important to note that Japan has had three decades of stagnation with long-term low/negative interest rates, making borrowing extremely cheap. Institutions love to borrow yen to exchange for other currencies to invest in global stocks and bonds for arbitrage (this is known as yen carry trade). Once Japan raises interest rates, borrowing costs will increase, and highly leveraged players will have to liquidate their positions, selling off US stocks, treasury bonds, and other assets, significantly withdrawing liquidity from the market. Furthermore, the market is more concerned that Japan will exit its long-term loose monetary policy, which would cool off the yen carry trade that injects liquidity into the global market. This would have a clear short-term impact on liquidity-sensitive markets, and risk assets like Bitcoin will certainly bear the brunt of it～
However, don’t panic too much; a rate hike in Japan is just a short-term shock. The larger influence on global liquidity levels still comes from the Federal Reserve. On December 1st, the Federal Reserve has already stopped tapering, and on December 10th, the probability of a rate cut by FOMC is over 80%, indicating a trend towards easing. But currently, the US is in a standstill, and events like Japan raising interest rates may disturb short-term liquidity. The global financial system is inherently interconnected, and coupled with the uncertainty brought by policies over the past year, Bitcoin has also suffered quite a bit. 😔
In the short term, keep a close eye on the 85000 USD support level, with the core focus on the reaction after the US stock market opens. If it can hold, there’s a high probability of a rebound this week, forming a short-term double bottom to challenge 90800 USD again; if it directly breaks down, there’s little support until 74000 USD, and the price may quickly test lower. ⏬
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Open low, horizontal trend. A prolonged horizontal trend must lead to a drop!
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It's been a long time since it's been this calm and peaceful. I estimate that something big is about to happen. Friends without positions should wait and observe to avoid losses from large market fluctuations. It's really like the storm is coming and the building is full of wind.
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Foreknowledge, ambushing in advance
Take down 38653 oil
In the adult world, there is no easy word; on one side is the pressure of life chasing after you, and on the other side is the restart of dreams. Adults are always on the "difficult road."
Take down 38653 oil
In the adult world, there is no easy word; on one side is the pressure of life chasing after you, and on the other side is the restart of dreams. Adults are always on the "difficult road."
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【December's Opening Black! Is the rebound over or is it the calm before the storm?】
Just yesterday, it was mentioned that the rebound might just be a 'dead cat bounce', and today a large bearish candlestick plunged below $88,000! Some friends started to ask: Is the bull market completely over?
Let's look at a few key points:
1️⃣ The monthly line failed to reach a new high, followed by an ugly doji and then a large bearish candlestick
2️⃣ The weekly rebound didn't even touch the previous pause point of $93,000
3️⃣ The daily line has now entered the rhythm of 'decline - weak rebound - further decline'
Current key positions:
🔻 There is a vacuum gap in the $89,000-$90,000 area, and a rebound to here might again be a selling pressure point
🔻 If it can't hold around $95,500 below, it might need to test previous lows or even lower
Although the market still has expectations for interest rate cuts, I think this wave of rebound might have already digested part of those expectations. The question now is simple: do you believe in 'the bull returns' or 'the trend has changed'?
If today the price rebounds above $88,500, will you choose to go short or buy the dip? Let's discuss your views in the comments!
Just yesterday, it was mentioned that the rebound might just be a 'dead cat bounce', and today a large bearish candlestick plunged below $88,000! Some friends started to ask: Is the bull market completely over?
Let's look at a few key points:
1️⃣ The monthly line failed to reach a new high, followed by an ugly doji and then a large bearish candlestick
2️⃣ The weekly rebound didn't even touch the previous pause point of $93,000
3️⃣ The daily line has now entered the rhythm of 'decline - weak rebound - further decline'
Current key positions:
🔻 There is a vacuum gap in the $89,000-$90,000 area, and a rebound to here might again be a selling pressure point
🔻 If it can't hold around $95,500 below, it might need to test previous lows or even lower
Although the market still has expectations for interest rate cuts, I think this wave of rebound might have already digested part of those expectations. The question now is simple: do you believe in 'the bull returns' or 'the trend has changed'?
If today the price rebounds above $88,500, will you choose to go short or buy the dip? Let's discuss your views in the comments!
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As soon as it was afternoon, it consolidated, that big bearish line in the morning trapped so many bulls, and now the bulls are struggling too much, feeling sorry for you.
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The first day of December, still Monday, jumped into the water at seven o'clock in the morning, what a surprise.....
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I've seen enough, just a small play
5000 turns into 500,000
Currently 487161U.
There is no dignified way to make money in this world; it is only dignified after you've earned it. The direction is given to you, but whether you can take it depends entirely on yourself.
5000 turns into 500,000
Currently 487161U.
There is no dignified way to make money in this world; it is only dignified after you've earned it. The direction is given to you, but whether you can take it depends entirely on yourself.
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Finally starting to rise, is Brother Pan's prediction accurate?
Breaking three thousand one is not a problem, let's see if it can stabilize at $ETH
Breaking three thousand one is not a problem, let's see if it can stabilize at $ETH
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I am really looking forward to a Friday with a white swan; it's been a long time since I've seen one. Today might be a showdown, determining life and death. If it pulls back to 2900, I will leave; otherwise, I will keep watching around 3200.
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This K-line is so stable, it's the calm before the storm.
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5000 flipping 500,000
Currently 485200U
The most cunning move in the market is the 'false breakout'. It specifically hunts down those who are impatient and believe in 'chasing the breakout'.
A successful pullback is a 'stress test' for this breakout.
And 90% of the profit comes from that elegant pullback.
Currently 485200U
The most cunning move in the market is the 'false breakout'. It specifically hunts down those who are impatient and believe in 'chasing the breakout'.
A successful pullback is a 'stress test' for this breakout.
And 90% of the profit comes from that elegant pullback.
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Last night, a brother asked me a question:
"The direction is right, so why still get liquidated?"
I only replied to him with four words—"Not rolling the position."
Most people's liquidation in the crypto world is not due to bad luck, but rather chaotic methods.
They rush to sell when the price rises a little, hurriedly add more when it falls, and can't help but increase their position during a rebound...
The more they operate, the more chaotic it becomes, and the faster they lose.
Those who can truly survive rely on a stable "position rolling logic,"
It's not gambling, nor is it all-in,
The core is just one sentence:
Protect the principal, roll the profits, act at key levels.
Let me break down a practical position rolling strategy for you; you'll understand it at a glance:
Step 1: Trial position → Verify the direction with the smallest cost
Assuming you have only 10,000 U and are bearish.
Don't go all-in right away; instead, start with a 5% position to test.
Moderate leverage, stop-loss firmly set.
Don't act without signals; minimizing losses is winning.
Step 2: Capture profits → Use profits to increase the position, keep the principal unchanged
Once the trial position has floating profits, start rolling:
If you earn 50%, take half of the profits to increase the position
Continue breaking levels, then use the remaining profits for a second leg
Throughout the process, use profits to "fight," without touching the principal.
Even if the market reverses, it only returns the profits to zero, not affecting the base.
Step 3: Trend opens → Lock in a safety net, capture the entire market segment
When floating profits exceed the principal, hedge and lock in the base position.
As the market approaches the end, place a light "ghost order" to capture the last acceleration.
After completing this set of actions, you'll find:
In a trending market, there’s no need to predict; just focus on following the trend.
Many people study indicators, models, and news every day,
But what truly determines your profits and losses
Is often the 3 minutes of not being controlled by emotions at critical moments.
If you don't break free from the chaotic phases of adding, running, and increasing,
You will never keep up with the rhythm of the trend.
Position rolling is not a technique for getting rich quickly, but a system that allows you to "live longer" in the market.
It's not difficult to see the right direction; the challenge is to roll the profits to the end.
If you want to learn systematically, @盯盘眼
"The direction is right, so why still get liquidated?"
I only replied to him with four words—"Not rolling the position."
Most people's liquidation in the crypto world is not due to bad luck, but rather chaotic methods.
They rush to sell when the price rises a little, hurriedly add more when it falls, and can't help but increase their position during a rebound...
The more they operate, the more chaotic it becomes, and the faster they lose.
Those who can truly survive rely on a stable "position rolling logic,"
It's not gambling, nor is it all-in,
The core is just one sentence:
Protect the principal, roll the profits, act at key levels.
Let me break down a practical position rolling strategy for you; you'll understand it at a glance:
Step 1: Trial position → Verify the direction with the smallest cost
Assuming you have only 10,000 U and are bearish.
Don't go all-in right away; instead, start with a 5% position to test.
Moderate leverage, stop-loss firmly set.
Don't act without signals; minimizing losses is winning.
Step 2: Capture profits → Use profits to increase the position, keep the principal unchanged
Once the trial position has floating profits, start rolling:
If you earn 50%, take half of the profits to increase the position
Continue breaking levels, then use the remaining profits for a second leg
Throughout the process, use profits to "fight," without touching the principal.
Even if the market reverses, it only returns the profits to zero, not affecting the base.
Step 3: Trend opens → Lock in a safety net, capture the entire market segment
When floating profits exceed the principal, hedge and lock in the base position.
As the market approaches the end, place a light "ghost order" to capture the last acceleration.
After completing this set of actions, you'll find:
In a trending market, there’s no need to predict; just focus on following the trend.
Many people study indicators, models, and news every day,
But what truly determines your profits and losses
Is often the 3 minutes of not being controlled by emotions at critical moments.
If you don't break free from the chaotic phases of adding, running, and increasing,
You will never keep up with the rhythm of the trend.
Position rolling is not a technique for getting rich quickly, but a system that allows you to "live longer" in the market.
It's not difficult to see the right direction; the challenge is to roll the profits to the end.
If you want to learn systematically, @盯盘眼
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In this market, it's a grind all afternoon, and a weld all afternoon.
Currently, from the 4-hour chart, there is still a downward trend, but brothers, tomorrow is Friday, and it's Thanksgiving for placing orders, so be a bit cautious to avoid getting caught.
Currently, from the 4-hour chart, there is still a downward trend, but brothers, tomorrow is Friday, and it's Thanksgiving for placing orders, so be a bit cautious to avoid getting caught.
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Not too fast, not too slow, another order of 3900U taken today
5000 for a turnover of 500,000
Currently 481536U
There are no US stocks today, the market is dragging on painfully. I have reminded everyone long ago, if it can't go up tonight, it should drop down. As expected, it has come true.
5000 for a turnover of 500,000
Currently 481536U
There are no US stocks today, the market is dragging on painfully. I have reminded everyone long ago, if it can't go up tonight, it should drop down. As expected, it has come true.
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Thanksgiving US stocks and US bonds are closed all day, gold, silver, and oil futures close early, making the crypto market the only "non-stop" battlefield🔥
Historical data shows that the probability of BTC falling on Thanksgiving is 70%, but this year has uncertainties—currently, Bitcoin has returned to 90,000, and Ethereum has broken 3,000, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability soaring to 84.9%!
The correlation between US stocks and BTC has reached 0.8 over 30 days, and a liquidity gap is evident after the market closes, with volatility potentially soaring to three times the usual! Asian capital's influence is increasing, and independent market trends are likely after 2 AM. Reminder: Large trades in low liquidity can easily trigger sudden changes, keep a close eye on the key levels of 88,000/2900, and strictly control leverage stop-loss!
Historical data shows that the probability of BTC falling on Thanksgiving is 70%, but this year has uncertainties—currently, Bitcoin has returned to 90,000, and Ethereum has broken 3,000, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability soaring to 84.9%!
The correlation between US stocks and BTC has reached 0.8 over 30 days, and a liquidity gap is evident after the market closes, with volatility potentially soaring to three times the usual! Asian capital's influence is increasing, and independent market trends are likely after 2 AM. Reminder: Large trades in low liquidity can easily trigger sudden changes, keep a close eye on the key levels of 88,000/2900, and strictly control leverage stop-loss!
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$ETH
#加密市场回调
Today has been flat for almost a day, and it has been fluctuating at this position. Let's see how it goes tonight.
Ethereum has already rebounded a few hundred points from its lowest point. Unconsciously, it has rebounded quite a bit; as long as it doesn't break 3100, I still view the trend as bearish.
#加密市场回调
Today has been flat for almost a day, and it has been fluctuating at this position. Let's see how it goes tonight.
Ethereum has already rebounded a few hundred points from its lowest point. Unconsciously, it has rebounded quite a bit; as long as it doesn't break 3100, I still view the trend as bearish.
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Heaven-Defying God
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Frequently asked by fans: With just a few thousand U, how did I roll to a million? This path, I have truly walked myself. Back then, my account had only seven thousand RMB left, and I resolutely exchanged it all for 1000 U, betting my entire fortune.
However, I didn’t lose my mind and go all in; I first took 200 U to test the waters—specifically targeting the most active cryptocurrencies of the day, cashing out once I doubled my investment, and stopping losses immediately if I lost down to 50 U. After a few consecutive wins, my capital slowly accumulated. The hardest part was maintaining my mindset; every time I made over 1000 U, I forced myself to take a day off, otherwise, I would easily act impulsively.
Once my capital was solid, I adopted the “Three-Part Method”:
One part for short-term sniping, running away once I made a profit, absolutely without hesitation; one part for regular investment, following the trend without being swayed by emotions; and the remaining part, kept for when a major market event occurs.
Before placing any order, I always note my profit-taking and stop-loss prices in my memo. Those who rush in blindly without a plan are mostly swayed by emotions and end up losing a lot. Contracts are not magic; they only amplify your judgment, right or wrong, several times.
Over the years, I set four ironclad rules for myself and have never broken them:
Absolutely no full position trading; every order must have a stop loss; a maximum of three orders per day; withdraw a portion of the profit.
I have seen too many people make money by luck only to lose it all due to greed. The secret to my journey from 1000 U to now is summed up in one sentence—be decisive in trading and strictly discipline myself. The cryptocurrencies may change, but discipline must never be lost.
However, I didn’t lose my mind and go all in; I first took 200 U to test the waters—specifically targeting the most active cryptocurrencies of the day, cashing out once I doubled my investment, and stopping losses immediately if I lost down to 50 U. After a few consecutive wins, my capital slowly accumulated. The hardest part was maintaining my mindset; every time I made over 1000 U, I forced myself to take a day off, otherwise, I would easily act impulsively.
Once my capital was solid, I adopted the “Three-Part Method”:
One part for short-term sniping, running away once I made a profit, absolutely without hesitation; one part for regular investment, following the trend without being swayed by emotions; and the remaining part, kept for when a major market event occurs.
Before placing any order, I always note my profit-taking and stop-loss prices in my memo. Those who rush in blindly without a plan are mostly swayed by emotions and end up losing a lot. Contracts are not magic; they only amplify your judgment, right or wrong, several times.
Over the years, I set four ironclad rules for myself and have never broken them:
Absolutely no full position trading; every order must have a stop loss; a maximum of three orders per day; withdraw a portion of the profit.
I have seen too many people make money by luck only to lose it all due to greed. The secret to my journey from 1000 U to now is summed up in one sentence—be decisive in trading and strictly discipline myself. The cryptocurrencies may change, but discipline must never be lost.
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