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Although I only ate 8 times, it's good that this time the position is large
The profit is still considerable
秃子 来了
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0x8960f505904a362fabce4e7bc618e10d786c4444
Binance's designated year 20206 is: The Year of Yellow Fruit
The Year of Yellow Fruit refers to the age when fruits ripen and turn yellow, often used to metaphorically describe a person's middle age (especially around forty to fifty years old), which is the stage of life when one’s fruits are most mature and abundant.
From a narrative perspective, this "Year of Yellow Fruit" can be called: a grand narrative that establishes the overall tone for the entire 26th year, with enormous speculation potential.
From a market capitalization perspective: currently, the token's market value has fallen to 21k, and the only way down is to halve again, but the upward potential is enormous.
Binance's designated year 20206 is: The Year of Yellow Fruit
The Year of Yellow Fruit refers to the age when fruits ripen and turn yellow, often used to metaphorically describe a person's middle age (especially around forty to fifty years old), which is the stage of life when one’s fruits are most mature and abundant.
From a narrative perspective, this "Year of Yellow Fruit" can be called: a grand narrative that establishes the overall tone for the entire 26th year, with enormous speculation potential.
From a market capitalization perspective: currently, the token's market value has fallen to 21k, and the only way down is to halve again, but the upward potential is enormous.
The market on the first day of December is still showing disappointing trends.
The previous short positions have once again exceeded expectations:
· DUSK, 20x short position profit 10 times · ICP, 20x short position profit 12 times · PLUME, 20x short position profit 12 times · LSK, 20x short position profit 3 times · ACE, 20x short position profit 3 times · HOLO, 20x short position profit 5 times
Although these are small positions, I am indeed pleased with my correct judgment of the trend.
Regarding the upcoming market at the end of December, I personally remain pessimistic and will deliberately look for some targets to short.
I have previously mentioned some tips and insights for shorting; besides these, there are also some mindless shorting targets, which are — blockchain gaming tokens.
The shorting logic mainly includes the following points:
1. The essence of blockchain gaming tokens is the "mining mechanism"; it's all about the output and income ratio. When the market declines, no one wants to play games, so the mechanism of blockchain gaming itself cannot operate, leading to no upward movement.
2. Secondly, the only factors that can drive the rise of blockchain gaming tokens now are changes in the token mechanism or large funds stirring things up, which are not sustainable upward forces.
At the same time, I also see that @加密狗 summarizes the trends of blockchain gaming tokens this year, and without exception, they are all declining, which further confirms the logic of continuing to short.
Today, I went to check the growth leaderboard and found two trending tokens on the list
· $SANTOS , with a daily increase of 13% · $LAZIO , with a daily increase of 7%
Although the daily increases for both are not significant, looking at the market, both have been steadily climbing step by step from a long time ago to now:
· SANTOS began to rebound from the bottom on November 4, and so far, only 7 days have closed down, while the rest of the time has maintained steady upward movement, with a total increase of 97%, close to doubling
· LAZIO is almost the same, starting to rebound from the bottom on the 3rd, and so far, only 6 days have closed down, with a total increase of 50%
Both tokens are pointing towards the most certain hot event of next year: the 2026 World Cup
Starting from November, the World Cup qualifiers will gradually begin, and the speculation on these fan tokens has quietly started amidst the invisible smoke
However, fan tokens will have two channels that will disperse the heat of the 'World Cup', namely: on-chain meme and prediction markets
· Meme has developed to the point where any noticeable or unnoticed hot event will instantly gather capital, especially for a major event like the World Cup, it will definitely be accompanied from start to finish, and currently, speculation has already started on 'the World Cup mascot'
· A series of prediction markets led by Potymarket will certainly not miss the World Cup, as historically, 'gambling is the market'
So the positive news is indeed positive, but where the increase happens will depend on the development situation.
· DUSK, 20x short position yield 6.7 times · ICP, 20x short position yield 8.7 times · ACE, 20x short position yield 1.3 times · LSK, 20x short position yield 14.8 times · PLUME, 20x short position yield 6.6 times · NXPC, 20x short position yield -30% · HOLO, 20x short position yield 1.1 times
All of the above short positions are still held
2. Why continue to short?
First, it is believed that the overall trend of the market is bearish. Although BTC and ETH are gradually recovering from their declines, altcoins are still overall weak.
Secondly, the shorts are on some coins that have been rising significantly; such inexplicable surges definitely cannot support long-term increases.
Finally, why can the positions be held for so long without taking profits? It is because the positions are small, some even have no stop-loss price, so they can be held for a long time and capture most of the declines. While the positions are small and have generated several times in returns, the overall profit is not high. However, for small traders, this is "steady happiness."
3. What is the logic behind shorting a coin?
First, you can only short a coin after it has shown an increase. You can short on a flat ground, but the effect will definitely not be as quick as shorting a coin that has surged.
Secondly, evaluate the coin based on its: sector, project progress, token fund inflow, and the logic behind its surge. Overall, judge whether the upward trend of this coin can be sustained. If there are no theoretical points to support its continued rise, then it can be shorted.
To short, one must be patient. Initially, shorting does not mean going all in; it requires waiting for the coin to show a slight inability to rise before the downward trend truly begins. This is why positions should not be too large.
4. Can this logic continue to hold?
This still needs to be judged according to the overall trend of the market, moving step by step. If it is said that in the future, BTC and ETH rebound strongly while altcoins are fully lifted, then shorting at that time would be somewhat against the larger trend.
So one cannot short without reason; wait for the right moment to short.
5. Finally
Although we have controlled the risk with our contracts, we also need to pay attention to taking profits.
Even though these are small positions, some absurd returns still need to be taken for profits; otherwise, they can easily turn into losses.
Previously, everyone shorted ACE at 0.26, and it has now dropped to a low of 0.23, a decrease of 10%
The 20x contract has also achieved nearly 2 times the decline profit
秃子 来了
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Concerned target: $ACE
ACE is a chain game token.
I can understand why it appears on the rise list: the market has broken through the downward channel and has started to rise.
However, I still hold the same logic: chain games are still not the mainstream sector at present, and funds will not shift towards chain games. From the perspective of capital flow, whether in contracts or spot, funds are flowing out.
At the same time, looking at Fusionist, there is also no significant progress regarding the project itself; the latest tweet was still on the 11th, and the next one is from October.
Firstly, it is not a hot token; secondly, there is no large capital inflow; thirdly, the project itself has no progress. What supports continuous growth? Love?!
Current price of ACE: 0.2623, it can be shorted a bit.
I can understand why it appears on the rise list: the market has broken through the downward channel and has started to rise.
However, I still hold the same logic: chain games are still not the mainstream sector at present, and funds will not shift towards chain games. From the perspective of capital flow, whether in contracts or spot, funds are flowing out.
At the same time, looking at Fusionist, there is also no significant progress regarding the project itself; the latest tweet was still on the 11th, and the next one is from October.
Firstly, it is not a hot token; secondly, there is no large capital inflow; thirdly, the project itself has no progress. What supports continuous growth? Love?!
Current price of ACE: 0.2623, it can be shorted a bit.
$PLUME said something like how it went up and then how it went down, and what does it matter if the market warms up, trash is still trash
$PLUME suggested to short around 0.033 yesterday, to be honest, this point could have been a little higher, just spent some time researching this coin and missed it
Currently, it has dropped to 0.0246, down 25%, perfectly back to the starting point
20x contracts also achieved a 4x increase in returns