Trading is a game of probabilities, not predictions.
To survive and grow in this market, you have to think probabilistically every single time you make a decision.
It’s always a game of “if this, then that.” When price approaches a level, there are only a few things that can happen:
- Price can respect the level as support , maybe you want to long it.
- Or it can break below and flip it into resistance, maybe you want to short it or expect downside as long as price stays under that level. That’s it. These are the scenarios you prepare for.
Now, there will always be people who say, “Bro, you’re just saying it’ll go up or down.” Ignore them. They don’t understand the market, they don’t understand risk, and most of the time they’re losing money and need to project that frustration somewhere. They’re not your competition, they’re noise.
You’re here to make money. And to make money, you must consider every possible outcome and prepare for each one.
A real trader thinks like this:
If this happens, I will do this. If that happens, I will do that.
You simply lay out the probabilities, judge which scenario is more likely, and then manage your risk according to your plan.
#FOMCWatch BULLISH CRYPTO NEWS 🇺🇸 The Fed stops withdrawing money + reduces interest rates → Good news for the crypto market
📣 The Fed has just announced: ✅ A reduction of 25 basis points in the rate. ✅ A pause in QT starting from 1/12 (that is, no more money will be withdrawn from the market). 🔍 What does this mean? ✅ The market will become easier, as there will be no more withdrawal of liquidity ✅ Lower interest rates → cheaper capital → investors are more willing to invest in risky assets ✅ USD weakens → Bitcoin generally rises during this period ✅ Bitcoin funds receive a strong cash flow, indicating expectations of price growth ✅ The market expects the Fed to cut rates again in its meeting on December 9–10. 📌 The Fed is easing — less withdrawal of money → Crypto has the potential to grow significantly until the end of 2025.
Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, acknowledges that he was wrong about cryptocurrencies. The head of the world's largest asset manager — once skeptical about cryptocurrencies — is now openly recognizing his mistake.
Larry Fink now says: ➡️ Cryptocurrencies are transforming global finance ➡️ The demand from investors is undeniable ➡️ Digital assets are becoming a fundamental part of portfolios From calling Bitcoin "illicit" to leading the world's most successful BTC ETF… This is one of the largest investments in the history of Wall Street. When the largest asset manager on the planet says he was wrong, it is not noise, it is a signal. 🚀
Bitcoin Bulls Continue to Struggle
| Is There Still Hope?
It’s the first day of the week and the first day of the month, and Bitcoin is already down ~5%. The end of the year is usually bullish for crypto, but instead we got a brutal October followed by even more downside in November. Bitcoin closed November with a -17% drop, and now December is starting with another 5% decline. Will the crypto market continue to struggle, or is there still hope? Let’s discuss.
Let’s dive straight into the charts and see what’s going on. But before that, let’s recap what we discussed in last week’s update.
That trade we planned last week for a move into $93k worked out perfectly and as we discussed this move will change nothing bitcoin got rejected from the same zone. Anyways lets discuss what can we expect now. BTCUSD (Weekly)
The weekly chart remains unchanged. We’re still sitting around the monthly/weekly zone, but structurally it’s bearish as long as price is trading below $98k–$100k. There’s no reason to be a biased bull when the chart itself is bearish. As discussed in the last update, there will be some bounces in between, and we can keep an eye on those. BTCUSD (Daily)
The daily chart remains in a downtrend, with price continuing to form lower highs and lower lows. The key level to watch is $93k, Bitcoin needs to break above this zone for us to start targeting higher prices. Trade Plan? This is more like a prediction than the trade with confirmation.
I personally want to see Bitcoin finds some support around $83k-85k zone, This could potentially give us a higher low and we can target $93k once again and potentially $98k. Today’s move is likely news-driven, coming from Japan. It’s a low volume move, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin recovers.
That’s it for this week’s update. Overall, we remain in a downtrend. I don’t have a clear trade setup yet, what I shared above is more of a prediction than a trade plan because a higher low only confirms when price creates a higher high after. Let me know your thoughts about BTC.
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What happens after you close a trade is none of your business. If you booked profits on a trade that had zero guarantee, that’s already a win.
Stop thinking “what if I held longer” that mindset only creates regret. There will always be another setup, another opportunity. Focus on the next one, not the past.
In an environment where prices change minute by minute, talking about "long-term investment" may seem like a utopia. However, it is precisely that mentality of discipline and focus on fundamentals that distinguishes the speculator from the investor.
Sustained investment in crypto is possible and necessary. It involves choosing projects with a track record and solidity, like BTC, ETH, or BNB, and holding them beyond the volatility of the short term.
The key is not to guess prices, but to accumulate value with patience and vision throughout the market cycles.
The current tools from Binance are the perfect complement: you can use Earn Flexible or locked staking to generate passive yield while maintaining your investment.
Complementing this with periodic purchases (the DCA strategy) and proper risk management creates the most solid foundation. Time is the best ally.
Market cycles reward those who have consistency, emotional control, and a clear accumulation strategy.
Do you also prefer to maintain your positions for the long term or take advantage of short-term opportunities with active trading?.
If you like what I share, I invite you to comment or share what has helped you the most.
If you follow me, I will follow you too. 👉
📊 Check how the most traded pairs are doing by clicking here 👇. $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT) $ETH {spot}(ETHUSDT) $BNB {spot}(BNBUSDT) Education is your best investment. Learn, question, and take control of your decisions in crypto.
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To add more, I told him, Once the market starts going up, you won’t sell. You’ll think maybe now it’s finally going to take off. This market is full of emotions. You’re thinking about selling because you’re down, but you won’t sell once you start seeing green candles.
He said, No, I will, and I replied, “Just remember my words.”
Everyone knows rate cuts are coming, and most expect the market to go full send after that. I’m not chasing it like that. I already have my bags and I’m not touching them, but for fresh entries I’ll be waiting on a longs wipeout.
Pre or post FOMC doesn’t matter but That’s where I’ll be buying heavy.