雨川趋势论

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The sol of the little twenty classics is also a script of the market given in advance.
Only by listening to others' advice can one eat enough, not to mention that when the food is fed right to your mouth, can you really not eat it?

Did not eat the big meat, following Yu Chuan can also eat 1,100 typical spaces, and small rebounds can also grasp quite a bit.

Blindly bottom-fishing in a big market is just asking for trouble. Yuchuan gave a hint very early on, and those who followed were able to profit. Over here, the big pie 88888 has reached 86000, and even chasing into the space of two thousand eight hundred is money. The bold will thrive, while the timid will starve!

Summary of the Bitcoin Plunge Event at 8 AM on December 1st

At 8 AM (Beijing time) on December 1st, Bitcoin plummeted from 93000 to 88500 within an hour, a decline of 4.3%, dragging Ethereum down over 5% and Binance Coin down 7%. The market evaporated nearly 2 trillion in 24 hours, with 220,000 people liquidated (12.2 billion yuan). The core reason was a combination of multiple negative factors triggering a high-leverage sell-off.

The immediate trigger was the price breaking the 90000 support level, leading to a forced liquidation of 15 billion in leveraged positions, causing a 'long squeeze'; the fundamental reasons are fivefold: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations cooling down (probability dropped to 44.4%), a net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs for seven consecutive weeks, tightening regulations in China and the US, long-term holders selling 800,000 coins, and a weak technical outlook (cumulative drop of 25%+ and liquidity exhaustion).

In the short term, Bitcoin may oscillate around 89000, with institutions predicting it may test 82000 (80000 is expected to stabilize), and recovery awaits clearer regulations.

The Federal Reserve's taper collides with China's strict regulation: the tug-of-war in the cryptocurrency circle escalates, and interest rate cut expectations become the key to breaking the deadlock

At the beginning of December, the cryptocurrency circle welcomed a collision of dual critical messages: the Federal Reserve officially started tapering on December 1, releasing market dollar liquidity, theoretically injecting liquidity benefits into the stock market and the cryptocurrency circle; at the same time, the People's Bank of China, leading thirteen departments, reiterated on November 28 that virtual currencies are illegal financial activities, categorizing speculative behaviors as key targets for crackdown, while directly addressing the money laundering and fraud risks associated with stablecoins, clearly indicating that there is no possibility of lifting the ban in the short term, releasing bearish signals.

Despite China's tough regulatory stance, there has been no drastic price drop in the cryptocurrency circle, which is mainly due to the diversified asset holding structure—Nasdaq-listed companies have included BTC in their reserves, and spot ETF holdings are sufficient, combined with BTC and ETH reserves in the Hong Kong ETF market, which have weakened the impact of regulation in a single region.

In the short term, there are still downward risks for the market, while the probability of interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 11 and subsequent economic data will become the core variables determining the trend in the cryptocurrency circle, which needs to be closely monitored for proactive layout.
Accurately grasp the market situation, share strategies in real-time, scan the code to enter the chat room, and let’s achieve wealth together! #加密市场反弹

Cryptocurrency Turmoil: Regulatory Crackdowns on Stablecoins Spark Heated Debate, AI + Crypto May Become the Ultimate Breakthrough

The central bank has clarified that stablecoins are classified as virtual currencies and are considered illegal financial activities, directly pointing to their risks of money laundering and illegal cross-border transfers. However, the current regulatory measures such as card freezes, account suspensions, and reporting restrictions are viewed by the crypto community as 'treating the symptoms rather than the root cause' without addressing the core issues.

There are also rumors of the introduction of a 'national sovereign stablecoin,' but the idea of implementing it through coercive measures has been questioned. The core logic of the crypto world lies in 'consensus'; the value of stablecoins cannot be forcibly obtained—success in sovereign stablecoins in Singapore and Indonesia stems from their practical value of efficient and low-cost cross-border payments. Forcibly promoting such measures lacks public support and may drive capital outflows, inadvertently injecting momentum into the crypto market and unexpectedly fueling a bull market.

Traditional banks are feeling anxious, but their real competitors are not DeFi, but rather their own high fees and slow transfer issues under monopolistic conditions. The free innovation showcased by the Ethereum ecosystem, with 10-minute cross-border transfers, a few yuan in fees, and DeFi returns that far exceed bank savings, precisely aligns with the capital's pursuit of efficiency and freedom, making this trend irreversible.

In the long run, 'no AI, no entrepreneurship' has become the norm, and in the future, 99% of new assets will carry AI genes, while 'crypto + AI' is undoubtedly the next major trend. The core of regulation should be 'facilitation' rather than 'blockage'; a hardline approach will only have counterproductive effects—after all, true value has always been built on grassroots consensus rather than being forcibly imposed. What do you think?

No need to say much, and not to ramble. Yuchuan has already said enough about the market. Those brothers who haven't grasped the market direction and cannot take a big bite can scan the code to find the Binance chat room and follow Yuchuan to change my life! The road to wealth is right in front of us.
Yuchuan continues to provide two strategies: aggressive and steady. Aggressive short at any position (5% position, target 83000-78000), steady wait for European market to lose stability at 87000 before shorting (8% position, same target). ETH is synchronized, and the trend continues to look at 2600. The start of December encounters dividends, and we need to adhere to position discipline to seize opportunities.

The prediction of a divine brush, in the vast space of ten thousand points, you can still profit from getting on midway. In this life, the opportunities to turn your fortunes around are few and far between; following Yuchuan is the beginning of your turnaround!

Yuchuan had already warned everyone on November 25 to be cautious about going long, the shipping situation is definitely going to trend downwards and it is even possible to touch 70,000. The prophecy from five days ago is being fulfilled today, friends who followed along will definitely have enough space to eat well with five thousand points!

Monday Morning Strategy

The price of Bitcoin surged to around 92000 early this morning but encountered resistance and fell back, reaching a low of 90600. The overall market is still in a wide range of fluctuations. The technical analysis shows that the bullish momentum on the daily chart is gradually weakening, and the candlestick has turned from bullish to bearish, clearly signaling short-term pressure; on the 4-hour chart, the bearish momentum is increasing, with the price breaking key support along with the volume.

Based on the current trend, the morning trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions when the price rises, with specific levels as follows:

- BTC: It is recommended to place short orders in the range of 90900-91500, targeting the area of 89000-88500.
- ETH: It is recommended to place short orders in the range of 3030-3060, targeting the area of 2900-2955.

#Crypto #Cryptocurrency Trading

Don't give up, the opportunity to turn things around is just ahead!

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday and the closure of the US stock market, the fluctuation of Bitcoin is limited, trading sideways throughout the day in the 904-919 range. The technical indicators show a clear resistance at the 920 level, with EMA and KDJ both showing a bearish crossover, indicating potential downward space in the short term.

Key focus for the day is on the 904 support level; if it stabilizes, consider short-term long positions, but if it breaks, look for a decline to 895-890. The medium-term bullish structure remains intact, and after a phase of consolidation, there may be a strong upward surge. Core trading reference: long positions in the 90000-90500 range, target 92000, and if it breaks, look for 94000.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Market Explodes: Short-term Surge of Nearly 90%, Targeting $5 by 2026

Dogecoin (DOGE) has recently experienced a powerful market explosion, with the price soaring 90% from $0.15 to $0.29 after breaking through. Meanwhile, several analysts have provided strong bullish expectations.

From a technical perspective, crypto analyst Clifton Fx pointed out that the DOGE 12-hour chart has formed a "descending wedge" pattern—price oscillating downwards within two converging trendlines, which typically indicates the end of a corrective consolidation and an impending shift in bullish momentum. Currently, DOGE has rebounded from the wedge support level, and the pattern has entered a volatility contraction phase. If it breaks through the upper trendline, a short-term increase of 80%-90% is expected, further solidifying the $0.27-$0.29 range.

From a long-term perspective, analyst Bark believes that DOGE is replicating historical trends through cyclical fractal analysis: the two cycles in 2017 and 2021 both achieved explosive growth of 5858% and 21457% respectively after long-term accumulation. If this pattern continues, DOGE is currently gearing up for a new cycle, with the price expected to reach $5 by 2026, representing a potential increase of 4447% from the current level of $0.15. #DOGE

The short-term market is highly likely to welcome a technical correction trend, but the overall bearish-dominated trend has not fundamentally reversed, and structurally it remains in a downward cycle. In terms of operations, one should focus on the opportunity window when rebounds encounter resistance, and layout short positions with a light position size, while strictly setting stop losses and managing risk control.
Enter short positions in the 142-144 range, with the first target looking down to 135; if the 135 level is breached, the target can be extended to 128.

The Iron Rules of Survival in the Crypto Jungle: This is not a Money Printer, but a Wealth Butchery

The cryptocurrency market has never been a 'money printer' where you can relax and earn, but rather a top-tier global 'wealth butchery' operating 24/7. Behind every rise and fall in the K-line, there is an intense game of greed and fear; the underlying remnants of every market cycle are the losses of those who chase highs and panic sell.

As a trader who has experienced five rounds of bull and bear markets, I have distilled three iron rules that can help you survive in this bloody jungle:

1. Embed 'not losing' into your trading DNA

When the market falls into the frenzy of '100x coins' and '1000x coins', first calmly assess the probability of your principal going to zero. Before every trade, you must ask yourself: If I completely lose this money, will my life be affected? Can I still sleep peacefully?

The market never rewards blind risk-taking gamblers; it only favors survivors who know how to protect themselves. Remember: making money in a bull market is just a process; preserving your principal in a bear market is the ultimate outcome.

2. Stay away from the spiritual anesthetics of 'revolutionary narratives'

When project teams weave tales of wealth using glamorous terms like Metaverse, Web3, and AI, immediately check the on-chain data—verifying the true distribution of holdings and the concentration of chips is key to uncovering lies.

Real value never relies on the decibels of slogans, but is hidden in code update frequency, developer community activity, and treasury fund transparency. Any project that refuses to prove its value with on-chain data is essentially harvesting trust.

3. Establish a system for anti-fragile position configuration

- 20% position in 'dream coins': Focus on small-cap, high-potential sectors to seek excess returns;
- 30% position in 'mainstream coins': Anchor on liquid assets like LTC, SOL, BNB to balance risk;
- 50% position heavily in 'consensus coins': Hold core market assets like BTC, ETH to build a solid safety net.

When the market panics to the extreme, and blood flows like rivers, this 50% of consensus assets is your confidence and ammunition for picking up bloody chips.

Finally, here’s a blood-and-tears summary for everyone: In the crypto market, bull markets are the root cause of most people's losses—euphoria can make one forget they will ultimately be the prey. When your neighbors and relatives start asking 'how to register on an exchange', it’s the best time to silently initiate the withdrawal process.

Retail investors have risen to become a key variable in the market, with ETFs serving as the core anchor for funds.

In the current market cycle, the power of retail investors has jumped from "marginal participants" to a core variable that cannot be ignored. Although mainstream views suggest that the absence of institutions will suppress price upward space, the actual performance of the U.S. stock market provides a counter-proof—data shows that institutions are still in the early stages of building positions, with hedge funds primarily adopting short strategies, while retail investors have continued to increase their positions and firmly enter the market over the past 22 months, becoming an important support for the market.

In terms of capital flow, retail funds are highly concentrated in ETF products. Even after experiencing two panic markets this year where the VIX broke 25, and one extreme volatility where the VIX exceeded 60, retail investors have not changed their buying rhythm, and they exhibit a distinct characteristic of "buying more as prices drop," making them the most determined bullish force in the current market.

11.28 Blockchain Daily

During the U.S. stock market holiday, the cryptocurrency market operates independently, with overall volatility narrowing and a relatively dull trading atmosphere.

1. $BTC: Maintaining a volatile trend, it surged close to 92000 early yesterday morning and then retraced. It is currently once again attacking this level. Due to the U.S. stock market holiday and the absence of ETF capital, we need to continue to observe the breakthrough momentum.
2. **ETH**: Following the rhythm of BTC, it oscillates around the 3000 level, waiting to see if there will be a breakthrough performance today.
3. $SOL: The price performance is relatively weak, but on-chain activities show signs of recovery. It is recommended to focus on on-chain data; in addition, the Solana ETF has ended 22 consecutive days of net inflow.
4. The Uniswap "UNIfication" proposal was initially voted through with an absolute advantage and will initiate a $15.5 million bug bounty program.
5. Several high-inflation countries are accelerating the adoption of cryptocurrency assets as an alternative store of value, speeding up the adoption process.
6. Amundi, Europe’s largest asset management company, has launched its first tokenized share class for its euro money market fund.
7. Wall Street remains optimistic about the outlook for emerging markets in 2026.
8. Blockrise has obtained MiCAR licensing and launched BTC staking loan services, planning to raise 15 million euros.
9. The U.S. banking system's systemic importance rating has been upgraded, facing higher additional capital requirements.
10. @Kalshi's valuation has doubled within weeks, predicting that the market may form a duopoly with @Polymarket; attention can be paid to whether @opinionlabsxyz can absorb some of the spillover valuation.
11. PayPal has launched a Bitcoin lottery for U.S. users, further expanding the application scenarios for cryptocurrency.
12. The new UK budget has not introduced new taxes on cryptocurrencies, but regulatory policies are gradually tightening.
13. Pictet Asset Management strategist Luca Paolini pointed out that the economic slowdown will create conditions for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates next year, and the dollar may face a new round of weakening.
14. @infinex will launch a token presale on Sonar, planning to distribute 5% INX tokens before the January TGE; this is its second financing plan following NFT fundraising.
15. Alliance DAO co-founder reminds: Crypto users involved in U.S. stocks need to recognize their positioning, as most are not "sharks" but rather ordinary participants in the market.

11.28 Morning Analysis
The four-hour level shows a "Two Black Crows engulfing a White", with the price rising along the moving average, volume accumulating, and the MACD moving upward after a golden cross below the zero line, indicating strong bullish momentum. The one-hour cycle is undergoing a pullback and correction, touching the previous high before falling back, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing, and the RSI oscillating neutrally between 50-60, showing a divergence between volume and price as the trend builds strength.
BTC recommendation: 89500-90500 long, target 92500-93000;
ETH recommendation: 2950-2985 long, target 3100, 3200, with an advanced target of 3300.