加密貝兒ღ 0xGummyBear

📌Bail's Daily Market Musings

A lot of folks are asking, is this a bull return or the last chance to get out!? Glassnode's latest report tells us:
Currently, the market is in a 'neutral state, intertwining bullish momentum, cautious sentiment, and consolidation.'

Market indicators:
🍇 Price Momentum and spot CVD show a buyer's advantage, but the volume is still on the decline; even with price increases, the market remains in a consolidation phase.
🍇 Futures open interest has seen a slight increase, while the perpetual contract CVD has surged, indicating a rising trend in leveraged buyers.
🍇 $BTC ETF net inflow has decreased by 37.4%, and trading volume has also dropped by 25.9%, signaling waning interest from institutional investors.
🍇 ETF MVRV ratio has risen to 1.37, meaning overall ETF holders are in net profit, but it also represents potential profit-taking pressure.
🍇 Hot Capital Share continues to trend downwards, with the market primarily dominated by stable long-term holders, reducing the liquidity risk from short-term sell-offs.
🍇 NUPL has rebounded from -7.4% to -3.5%, and Percent Supply in Profit has also climbed back to 63.9%, indicating a continued improvement in the overall profit structure, with bearish sentiment easing up.

📌Bae's Daily Market Musings

This morning, riding the enthusiasm from the Asian markets, $BTC briefly broke past $79,000, but as evening approached, the trend flipped, and the price returned to its upward starting point. This week will see an interest rate meeting and the release of PCE data, with expectations that the market won't experience much volatility, keeping the focus on US-Iran relations.

Additionally, keep an eye on the earnings reports coming out on 04/29 from GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, META, and on 04/30 from AAPL to see if they can support continued growth in US stocks.

Data front:
🍇 BTC ETF has seen net inflows for nine consecutive days, but the inflow amount has dropped again to $14.40M in a single day; we'll need to see if this can continue after the market opens this week.
🍇 Coinbase's premium differential decline is accelerating, so watch whether today's opening can reverse this trend.
🍇 Funding rates remain negative, and the options skew is leaning bearish, with funds still cautious about a downturn; however, the Fear and Greed Index has risen back to neutral levels, indicating that market sentiment isn't as worried.
🍇 Since 04/10, the green leaf long positions have maintained a reduction in leverage, and it seems to have switched back to an accumulation trend on 04/27.
🍇 There’s a significant amount of liquidation liquidity accumulated around $76,000–$87,000 and $79,000–$80,300, so we could see price fluctuations at any moment.

3%高手狂割韭菜，群體智慧其實就是個笑話！？

很多人說Polymarket是「群體智慧」的體現，不過倫敦商學院與耶魯大學的最新研究卻大大地打了我們的臉：預測市場不是大眾遊戲，而是極少數專業獵人的獵場。

三個讓你瞬間心涼的數據：

🟣3%贏家法則：
全平台只有3.14%的帳戶是具備技術的真正「高手」，他們賺走了超過30%的利潤；而67%的帳戶被歸類為「沒技術或不幸的輸家」，承包了平台所有的虧損。

🟣賺錢不代表你厲害：
獲利最高的人中只有12%有真技術，剩下的88%只是運氣好。當換到下一個事件時，這些幸運兒有60%都會打回原形開始虧損。

🟣內線交易陰影：
疑似內線帳戶（開戶只投一場就閃人）對價格的影響力是普通高手的7～12倍，這解釋了為什麼有時候價格會突然發生不科學的波動。

數據告訴我們，這場遊戲是由3%的專業玩家與內線人士在推動的，剩下的97%則都是為這份準確性買單的流動性提供者，也就是俗稱的韭菜。

📌Bae's Daily Market Musings

With Intel's earnings report exceeding expectations, we're seeing a surge of nearly 20%, fueled by strong AI demand that eases market concerns about an AI bubble.
Currently, $BTC has hit a significant resistance level and is showing signs of a pullback, but we need to stay alert for any short squeezes caused by bearish congestion.

Data-wise:
🍇 BTC ETF funds have seen continuous net inflows for eight days, with a single-day inflow of $223.30M, keeping the fund trend strong.
🍇 Spot CVD is beginning to decrease, while futures CVD remains robust, indicating a leveraged-driven market with increasing volatility.
🍇 Overall funding rates are starting to stay negative, with shorts rapidly accumulating in the $79,000 to $80,300 range, leading to bearish congestion in the market.
🍇 The leverage long positions on Green Leaf have been on a downtrend since 04/10, as big whales start to take profits.

📌Bae's Daily Market Musings

Yesterday, $BTC hit a peak price of $79,472. The tensions between the U.S. and Iran are cooling off, and various positive signals continue to brew. Many traders are starting to position for shorts, but given the current situation, the bears are a bit crowded. Watch out for a potential short squeeze that could pop up at any time.

$BTC Data front:
🍇 BTC ETF funds have seen a consistent net inflow for seven days, with yesterday's inflow stabilizing back to a daily net inflow of $335.80M.
🍇 The Coinbase premium is still on a weakening trend, showing signs of caution from U.S. funds.
🍇 The options skew remains tilted; while bearish protective sentiment has eased somewhat, it still persists.
🍇 Yesterday, the short liquidity around $78,500 was liquidated, but overall shorts are rapidly accumulating between $79,000 and $80,300.

Recently, discussions about whether "quantum computers will really be able to crack blockchain" have been heating up. Are you worried that one day your crypto might get stolen? The Coinbase Quantum Advisory Board has just released its first official report, combining in-depth analysis from foreign media; let’s dive into the core truth!

🛡️ Is your asset safe right now?
The answer is absolutely yes! Currently, the quantum computers capable of cracking cryptography "do not exist yet" (experts estimate it’ll be at least another decade). However, Coinbase emphasizes that an upgrade to the entire blockchain ecosystem will take several years, and we can’t wait until the fire is at our backs to take action!

⚠️ Which areas are the most vulnerable?
1️⃣ PoS blockchains (like $ETH, $SOL): The "validator signatures" used to maintain network security may potentially be cracked in the future, and the core mechanism might need significant changes. But our boy Vitalik is already planning Ethereum's upgrade!
2️⃣ The dormant wallet dilemma: If a wallet owner loses their private key, they will never be able to upgrade (think of Satoshi’s million bitcoins). In the future, when these wallets face hacking risks, should the community freeze them directly, or let them be attacked? This will be the biggest moral and technical dilemma ahead.

💪 Bitcoin (PoW) is actually pretty solid!
The good news is that Bitcoin’s "mining mechanism" currently seems almost immune to quantum attacks; the cost for a quantum computer to crack PoW is too high and not worth it!

📌Bail's Daily Market Notes

MicroStrategy flipped the script, raking in $1.9 billion in profits. Those whales holding onto their short positions are really feeling the heat, with $230 million in shorts liquidated in the last 12 hours! Overall, $BTC is pushing up strong, but keep an eye on the weakening signs in ETF net inflows and the Coinbase premium spread. As we hit multiple resistance levels above, market sentiment could shift at any moment.

Data-wise:

🍇 Spot and futures CVD are highly synchronized, with solid spot buying backing it up, making the structure healthier than just pure contract speculation.
🍇 $BTC ETF has maintained six consecutive days of net inflows, but the inflow amount has dropped to $11.80M, the lowest in six days.
🍇 The Coinbase premium spread continues to decline, paired with decreasing ETF net inflow, indicating that the big players are clearly watching the $80k mark.
🍇 Options skew remains negative, showing that even with the rise, there's still heavy sentiment on buying puts for hedging; everyone's preparing for that "just in case" scenario.
🍇 Liquidity at $76,000 has been cleared again, and currently, short liquidity is rapidly accumulating between $78,500 and $80,000. Stay alert for potential short squeezes.

Polymarket is reportedly seeking $400 million in funding at a valuation of $15 billion! That number is pretty mind-blowing, surpassing many traditional financial institutions!

When ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), the parent company of the NYSE, makes a hefty bet, it signals that traditional capital is officially recognizing "on-chain prediction markets" as a highly promising financial tool, no longer just a gamble or election bet. ICE has confirmed an investment of $600 million, and Polymarket plans to bring in more strategic investors, potentially pushing the total funding for this round up to $1 billion.

However, competitor Kalshi is also making waves, recently raising over $1 billion at a staggering valuation of $22 billion, and in March, it slightly edged out Polymarket with a monthly trading volume of $13 billion compared to Polymarket's $10.57 billion!

Additionally, the U.S. Senate is eyeing this lucrative space, preparing to categorize prediction markets under "gambling." This is why Polymarket has recently ramped up efforts to guard against "insider trading" and "market manipulation."

Polymarket has proven that as long as there is "liquidity" and "essential information," on-chain data can be more accurate than polls. Although it still faces regulatory headwinds, with traditional finance giants entering the arena, this playing field won't just be child’s play anymore.

📌Belle's Daily Market Notes

The US-Iran ceasefire agreement is set to expire on 04/22 (US time), and current reports indicate a low likelihood of an extension, with the price of $BTC experiencing some pullbacks. @glassnode's report this week revealed some changes in the market:

🍇 $BTC ETF overall still maintains significant net inflows, and the ETF MARV also shows positive growth, with overall investors at a profit level.
🍇 Although spot momentum remains strong, CVD and funding rates have started to decline, and selling pressure has significantly increased.
🍇 The options skew continues to trend downward, with bearish and hedging sentiment in the options market easing.
🍇 Hot Capital Share's proportion continues to decrease, and the STH/LTH supply ratio remains stable, with market chips gradually being taken over by long-term, stable participants.
🍇 Net Unrealized Profit/Loss continues to rise, although it still remains negative (indicating overall losses), it has gradually eased compared to before. The pressure of capital losses in the market continues to alleviate.
🍇 However, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has started to decline, indicating that as prices rise, selling pressure from loss-cutting has begun to emerge.

Overall, the market is still in a phase of fluctuating transition in a bear market, with long-term chips continuing to accumulate slowly, and the selling pressure from loss-cutting continues to be released, with no obvious trend in the market at present.

After the KelpDao cross-chain bridge was attacked, the AAVE forum also began to propose relevant solutions, currently there are mainly two:

- Solution One: Uniform socialization of losses
- All rsETHs share the vulnerability, which will lead to a decoupling of rsETH by 15.12%. Additionally, the resulting bad debts will cause AAVE to face a bad debt of 120 million USD, of which the loss in the Ethereum mainnet alone amounts to 91.79 million USD.
- Solution Two: Losses isolated to L2 rsETH
- Since it is a cross-chain bridge issue, all losses will be borne by L2, and L2 rsETH will decouple by 73.54%. However, adopting this solution would be devastating for the Aave L2 market, as the Mantle liquidity pool will face a gap of 71.45%, while Arbitrum will have a gap of 26.67%.

Whether adopting Solution One or Solution Two, the confidence of DeFi users should be greatly impacted. The most ideal way is to negotiate with the hacker, to see if a bug bounty of 10-15% can be offered to reclaim the majority; secondly, the three parties of KelpDao, LayerZero, and AAVE should jointly bear the cost. However, based on the current overall market situation, the possibility of full compensation is relatively low, so it depends on how the various parties negotiate to achieve a perfect result.

The hardest hit by this incident is also one user, namely $AAVE Umbrella, whose currently deposited WETH is locked, and there is a possibility that it will be used to cover the bad debt of WETH on the mainnet. It is truly a case of losing the principal in order to earn a little more in risk subsidy interest.

📌Bell's Daily Market Notes

The US-Iran negotiations took a bizarre turn this weekend, opening and then closing the strait again, and the overall situation has once again fallen into a deadlock. Iranian officials have stated that they do not intend to engage in a second round of negotiations with the United States, which has slightly dampened the bullish momentum that reignited the market.

Data aspects:
🍇Last Friday, ETF net inflow was $663.9M with $BTC , maintaining a continuous net inflow trend for 4 days.
🍇The Coinbase premium spread remained even over the weekend, indicating that US funds have not fully exited the market.
🍇The short-term options Skew has quickly returned to normal, and bearish sentiment is narrowing, with market confidence gradually recovering.
🍇The bullish liquidity around $73,000 has not been completely cleared, and there is still some residue; the bearish liquidity at $76,000 was liquidated once over the weekend and is currently accumulating slowly.

📌Belle's Daily Market Notes

As the ceasefire agreement's expiration date approaches, Iran has begun to take a hard stance, causing market nerves to tighten once again, and crude oil prices are nearing the $100 mark. The weekend is coming up, so pay attention to price fluctuations during periods of low liquidity.

Data Perspective:

🍇 The options market overall still maintains a bearish sentiment, and short-term BF data has started to rise, corresponding to the uncertainty surrounding the expiration of the ceasefire agreement, with the market preparing for a downturn.
🍇 The futures market, however, is very active, with futures CVD soaring to +99.9, far exceeding the spot CVD of -13.4, a difference of +113.3 that has surged to a 30-day high, indicating that leveraged funds are aggressively buying in, pushing prices up.
🍇 The $BTC ETF has seen a net inflow for three consecutive days, but the inflow amount has dropped to $26.1M, showing a weakening of spot buying power.
🍇 The Coinbase premium spread still maintains a positive premium, but it is evident that sentiment is starting to weaken, so be on the lookout for changes in sentiment.
🍇 Around $73,000 and $76,000, liquidation liquidity has begun to accumulate; although the accumulation speed is not as aggressive as in previous days, it's still important to monitor the liquidity buildup.

📌Bailer's Daily Market Notes

The US-Iran conflict continues to cool down, and a new report released by BlackRock shows that corporate profits have not been affected by the war but have continued to grow; the war has somewhat impacted the supply chain, but it has only reduced the global economic growth rate by about 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points.

The overall market has regained confidence, and with the strong bullish trend in US stocks and $BTC , various old coins and altcoins have also begun to dance wildly. However, while the market is rising, one should be aware of potential selling pressure zones near the upper resistance levels.

🍇 $BTC ETF maintained a net inflow of $186.1M yesterday, accumulating +668.3M over the past seven days, but compared to the growth in previous days, there are signs that the inflow trend is slowing.
🍇 Coinbase's premium spread remains high, and US capital continues to be active.
🍇 Notably, the futures CVD buying pressure is stronger than that of the spot market, with the difference approaching a 30-day high, making leveraged-driven markets more volatile.
🍇 The options Skew is still negative in the short, medium, and long term, indicating that the market's demand for hedging against declines remains, and sentiment has not completely turned bullish.
🍇 The Fear and Greed Index remains in the "Fear" zone at 23; while altcoin festivities are in full swing, the market remains generally conservative towards $BTC .

📌Belle's Daily Market Notes

As mentioned yesterday, the price of $BTC is getting closer to the upper multi-pressure zone:

🟣Average active investor: $85K
🟣STH cost basis: $81.3K
🟣Real market average: $78K
🟣ETF average cost: $74K

The price has also experienced a certain degree of correction, and the funding rates on mainstream exchanges have started to turn negative, but we still need to pay attention to the short squeeze as prices attempt to rise again.

Data aspect:
🍇Although on Monday BTC ETF saw an outflow of $291M, there was an immediate net inflow of $411.4M yesterday, bringing the total in the past 7 days to +$907M.
🍇At the same time, the Coinbase premium spread has surged to a 30-day high, indicating active buying in the U.S., in response to the heat of ETF inflows.
🍇In the options market, the Skew remains negative, with funds still leaning towards bearish positions or buying insurance.
🍇$73,000 has rapidly accumulated a large amount of bullish liquidity, so special attention should be paid to liquidations at this price point.

BTC price has reached a recent high, let's take a look at the current market situation through the glassnode report.

Overall market sentiment:
- $BTC shows significant upward momentum, with the price momentum indicator rising from 47.7▶️▶️72.4, greatly exceeding the average, indicating strong buying power.
- Spot and ETF volume increase leads to price rise, with the CVD of the spot market significantly increasing to $63.9 million. At the same time, the weekly net inflow of the US spot ETF has climbed to $421 million, with trading volume increasing to $11.1 billion.
- Realized Cap Change rose from -0.6% to -0.4%, although still negative (indicating that funds are overall still flowing out, and the market remains cautious), it shows a slowdown in capital outflows, leading to market stabilization.
- STH/LTH Supply Ratio has dropped to 15.7% (close to a statistical low), while Hot Capital Share has also decreased to 18.6%. These two indicators together explain that the hot money from short-term speculation in the market is retreating, with chips turning towards long-term players.
- Net Unrealized Profit/Loss has rebounded from -20.9% to -13.9%, indicating that the market is moving away from the pressure zone of deep corrections. Meanwhile, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has turned positive from -0.3 to 0.3, with market behavior shifting from "cutting losses" to "taking profits," overall investment sentiment is turning optimistic.

However, it is important to note:
- Funding rates and options data have not yet turned optimistic, with funds remaining conservatively operated.
- The MVRV indicator of ETFs has reached the high edge of 1.2, indicating potential profit-taking.

Finally, combined with glassnode data from 04/10, the overall $BTC price is getting closer to the potential upper pressure zone.
🟣 Average active investors: $85k
🟣 STH cost basis: $81.3K
🟣 Real market average: $78K
🟣 Realized price: $54.2K

Originally, there was optimism about the positive news of the peace talks, but as the US-Iran negotiations broke down, the US also joined the blockade in the strait. Crude oil prices have risen again, approaching the $110 mark, and a sense of panic pervades the market. This uncertainty is also directly reflected in the data:

🍇$BTC ETF 04/10 net inflow of 256.75M, marking two consecutive days of net inflow. Attention should be paid to the net inflow trend after the US stock market opens tonight.
🍇Coinbase Premium spread has begun to weaken, and with futures and futures CVD also turning negative, the buying momentum from US capital is diminishing.
🍇 The option Skew for short, medium, and long terms continues to maintain negative values, and the market remains bearish.
🍇 Although the 25Δ Butterfly options have been affected by the breakdown of the peace talks, the market has gradually desensitized based on the trend.
🍇The $69,000～$70,000 and $73,000～$75,000 ranges still accumulate a large amount of liquidity, and prices may break below or above at any time to capture liquidity.

With the breakdown of the first negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. has also announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Originally, oil tankers that were pro-Iran and paid protection fees could navigate, but now even Iranian vessels cannot get out to sea.
Crude oil prices have quickly rebounded to over $100, let's take a look at @MorganStanley’s three forecasts for the future:

🟣Scenario One: Conflict De-escalation
Shipping in the strait returns to normal within a month, and oil prices stabilize to $80-$90 per barrel. The market will breathe a sigh of relief, return to pursuing risk assets, and refocus on high-potential markets like AI investments.

🟣Scenario Two: Continued Restrictions
About 80% of oil tankers restore passage within a month, but full recovery will take a quarter. Oil prices will remain at $100-$110 per barrel in 2026. Higher oil prices will create friction for the economy. To prevent rising inflation expectations, central banks may delay interest rate cuts. The stock market still has opportunities to rise, but volatility will increase. Funds will flow into balance sheet-strong "high-quality companies" and some defensive sectors (like healthcare).

🟣Scenario Three: Substantial Blockade–––⚠️Most Severe Scenario⚠️
The strait is blocked for months, and oil prices soar to $150-$180 per barrel. The surge in oil prices severely impacts global demand, shifting the central banks' primary task from "controlling inflation" to "preventing economic recession," potentially leading to significant interest rate cuts to support employment and the economy. Investors will initiate a "recession script," cutting stock positions and shifting funds into government bonds and cash, with safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and Swiss franc significantly strengthening.

In addition to watching the sons of the American president fight and the big players in the crypto space argue on Twitter, we also need to pay attention to changes in the cryptocurrency market.

Tonight at 20:30, the CPI will be announced, which should have no special impact on prices, similar to yesterday's PCE data.

Yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent wrote an article advocating for the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (CLARITY Act), and today Hong Kong granted licenses to HSBC and Standard Chartered Bank to implement a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, as the stablecoin payment sector continues to develop rapidly.

BTC data perspective:

🍇$BTC Yesterday's ETF capital inflow was extremely strong, with an influx of $358.1M, which has made up for the outflows from the previous two days. This buying pressure is very strong.
🍇Although Coinbase Premium did not show outrageous premiums, it surged to the 86th percentile of nearly 30 days at +0.0191%, indicating that funds on the U.S. side are still active, corresponding with the inflow of ETFs.
🍇Strangely, the Fear and Greed Index shows "Extreme Fear" at 16! This is completely different from price performance and ETF inflows, indicating a bit of contradiction in market sentiment.
🍇The options Skew is negative across short, medium, and long-term periods, though the magnitude is small, it indicates that there is still demand for bearish outlooks, and there is still some worry in the minds of traders.
🍇Liquidation liquidity is starting to accumulate between $69,000–$70,000 and $73,000–$75,000, so be cautious of possible point liquidation coinciding with holiday news.

📌Beier's Daily Market Notes

Bitcoin has recently been hovering between $60,000 and $70,000. When will it break out of this range?

Glassnode's latest report indicates:

🍇Structurally, the market is still in a bear market cycle.
🍇Current prices are between the 'realized price' ($54,000) and the 'true market average price' ($78,000).
🍇The participation in the spot market remains weak, with Binance's 30-day relative trading volume below the benchmark.
🍇The $BTC ETF's 14-day average funds have begun to show a slight net inflow, and selling pressure is easing.
🍇Although the options skew has eased somewhat, demand for puts remains, and market capital is still in a conservative state.

The following two items are key reversal confirmation indicators:

1️⃣Veterans stop cutting losses:
Current long-term holders are still selling up to 4,000 $BTC at a loss every day (surrender stage). Only when this number cools down will it be a true bottoming signal!
2️⃣Above $81,600:
This is the average cost for current short-term holders, and it must break through here to reverse the medium to long-term bearish trend.