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Recovery After Extreme Panic
📈 Last week, the overall net inflow of digital asset investment products was $1.07 billion

After four consecutive weeks of massive capital outflow
Digital asset ETP recorded a net inflow of $1.07 billion last week
Mainly benefiting from the expectations of an impending interest rate cut in the U.S. brought about by remarks from Federal Reserve member John Williams

Despite low trading volume during Thanksgiving week, the U.S. still led the world with nearly $1 billion in capital inflow

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP all saw strong capital inflows
At $464 million, $309 million, and a record $289 million respectively

🚨 Analyst Warning: This year's 'Santa Rally' may be absent, as investors are buying more downside protection

The 'Santa Rally' is usually one of the most popular traditions on Wall Street
After Thanksgiving, U.S. stocks often slowly rise, and volatility decreases
December is also often one of the strongest months of the year

But strategists say that this year, this 'Santa Claus' may not show up

The head of derivatives strategy at Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, Silverman, said:
"I don't know if we will see a 'Santa Rally', but we will definitely
encounter another volatility 'pit', or say a volatility rebound."

She pointed out that bearish sentiment in the options market has increased, and investors are buying more downside protection

Schwab Asset Management CEO Aguilar stated:

"We see a lot of dispersion and differences in many things. After the government shutdown,
the arrival of new macro data has not been balanced
and there are early signs of rotation among industry leaders."

🚨Bitcoin has fallen below multiple on-chain cost supports, with the next important support at $81,700

glassnode: Bitcoin has now fallen below multiple on-chain cost indicators (which can serve as reference support levels), including:

Short-term trading cost basis (STH Cost Basis, $90,900)
Active investors mean ($88,100)
The next important indicator is at $81,700, representing the real market mean

As for the long-term support reference, the realized market price is $56,400

⚠️Elon Musk predicts: Future energy will be hard currency, and Bitcoin is based on energy

In the future, human material needs will be greatly satisfied
Thus, currency will no longer be a necessity for humanity
The concept of currency may even disappear

At that time, energy will become the true currency
And "this is why I say Bitcoin is based on energy
You cannot control energy through legislation

You cannot suddenly possess a large amount of energy with a law"

👀 Lawyer interprets China's '1128' regulatory policy: Key regulations on illegal currency exchange using stablecoins

Lawyer Xiao Za interprets the '1128' regulatory policy, stating that overall
The 1128 meeting is a reiteration of old themes, but this time it is necessary to genuinely regulate
The behaviors that seriously disrupt the financial order, specifically the illegal currency exchange using stablecoins

Each person can exchange no more than 50,000 US dollars in foreign currency per year
The stablecoin market is gradually expanding, application scenarios are constantly broadening, and the number of coin merchants is increasing significantly
Many capital outflow demands have already been addressed by stablecoins like USDT and USDC

Moreover, it can facilitate money laundering for upstream crimes
Or provide services to conceal criminal proceeds

From a judicial practice perspective, in the past one to two years, our country's judicial authorities have gradually increased the regulation of coin merchants,
With a large number of coin merchants convicted and punished for illegal business operations, aiding and abetting crimes,
Money laundering, and concealing criminal proceeds

Lawyer Xiao Za believes the 1128 meeting will not affect Hong Kong's open policy towards virtual assets

Hong Kong and the mainland have gradually formed a basic pattern of one openness and one restriction regarding virtual assets, with a clear regulatory attitude:
It is not that financial innovation is prohibited, but you must innovate in the places I designate.

"Maji Da🈹" Ethereum long positions have been partially liquidated again

The previously deposited $1 million funds
had once floated gains of over $1 million, without taking profit
Currently, there have been multiple chain liquidations, and the account has less than $300,000 remaining in assets

📉 The market has plummeted in the past hour, with a total liquidation of 221 million dollars

· Long position liquidation of 212 million dollars
· Short position liquidation of 8.2967 million dollars

In the past 24 hours, a total of 180,364 people have been liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 537 million dollars

The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance - ETHUSDC worth 1,448.17 million dollars

Federal Reserve Mouthpiece: Whether to Cut Rates in December Will Face at Least 3 Opposing Votes

'Federal Reserve Mouthpiece' Nick Timiraos pointed out in an article
that Federal Reserve officials face a challenge
on how to resolve the divergence on interest rates

He listed the two factions within the Federal Reserve
One faction is more concerned about inflation issues
This group's size has recently expanded

It includes four regional Fed presidents with voting rights this year
and Fed governor Barr

Another faction of officials is more worried about the labor market
They include all three Fed governors appointed by Trump
They are concerned that their colleagues will overemphasize the risks of persistently high inflation

Which could lead to unnecessary risks of economic recession
And they believe that high inflation is still far off

Nick stated that, regardless, the December meeting
may have at least three people holding differing opinions
The three Trump-appointed officials will oppose maintaining interest rates

And if the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, the opposing votes will also reach at least three votes.

🚨Mainstream crypto treasury (DAT) companies' mNAV have all fallen below 1:

1️⃣Strategy (MSTR) has an mNAV (the ratio of market capitalization to the value of held BTC) currently reported at 0.937

Strategy's market cap has fallen to 56 billion USD
It currently holds 649,870 bitcoins, valued at 59.9 billion USD

2️⃣Metaplanet's mNAV has fallen to 0.912

Metaplanet's market cap has fallen to 2.61 billion USD
It currently holds 30,823 bitcoins, valued at 284 million USD.

3️⃣Bitmine's mNAV has fallen to 0.83

Market cap has fallen to 8.81 billion USD
Currently holds approximately 3.51 million ETH, valued at approximately 10.63 billion USD.

4️⃣SharpLink's mNAV has fallen to 0.84

Market cap has fallen to 2.02 billion USD
Currently holds 860,000 ETH, valued at approximately 2.61 billion USD.

Federal Reserve Mouthpiece: Whether to Cut Rates in December Will Have at Least 3 Opposing Votes

"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos pointed out in the article
that Federal Reserve officials face a challenge
of how to address the divergence in interest rates

He outlined the two factions within the Federal Reserve
One faction is more concerned about inflation issues
This group's size has recently increased

This includes four regional Federal Reserve presidents with voting rights this year
and Federal Reserve Governor Barr

The other faction is more worried about the labor market
They include all three Federal Reserve Governors appointed by Trump
They are concerned that their colleagues may overemphasize the dangers of persistently high inflation

Which could lead to unnecessary economic recession risks
And they believe that high inflation is still far off

Nick stated that, in any case, the December meeting
will likely have at least three dissenting opinions
The three officials appointed by Trump will oppose maintaining interest rates unchanged

And if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, the opposing votes will also reach at least three votes

🐦Eugene: The bulls have not completely lost their ground yet, and the overall global risk market and macro outlook remain positive.

Eugene stated, "Jokes aside, the current price action (PA) aligns with my expectations for the market structure transitioning from the third phase (Regime 3) to the fourth phase (Regime 4). The evolution of events takes time, and since Bitcoin hasn't dropped below 10000000000, the bulls have not completely lost their ground.

However, the slower the decline and the longer the price stays in this range, the worse the subsequent outlook will be. I believe the next few months will be tough for most of us. We must find a balance between preserving capital and not falling into excessive bearishness.

Of course, completely disconnecting and exiting the market is not the best choice—after all, the overall global risk market and macro outlook remain positive.

The trend of crypto speculators flowing into global stock markets is likely to continue until that 'ultimate bubble (omega bubble)' bursts.

But I think entering the stock market now is like buying NFTs in mid-2021. In such a dilemma, we can only rely on poetry to guide us through the starry skies."

⚠️DeFi Protocol Balancer was hacked today
The loss has exceeded 116.6 million dollars
The team is calling out to the hacker on-chain, hoping to recover 80%

This is not the first time Balancer has been attacked

1️⃣ June 2020 Flash Loan Attack: The attacker exploited the compatibility issue between the deflationary token (STA/STONK) and Balancer's smart contract, clearing the liquidity pool by repeatedly calling swapExactAmountIn, ultimately profiting 523,600 dollars.

2️⃣ August 2023 V2 Pool Vulnerability: The Balancer V2 pool suffered multiple flash loan attacks due to a code vulnerability, with total losses reaching 2.1 million dollars.

3️⃣ September 2023 Frontend Hijacking Attack: Hackers took control of Balancer's frontend through BGP/DNS hijacking, inducing users to authorize malicious contracts, resulting in a loss of 238,000 dollars.

4️⃣ 2023 Euler Incident Impact: Due to a vulnerability in Euler Finance, Balancer's bbeUSD pool suffered a loss of 11.9 million dollars, accounting for 65% of the pool's TVL. The team has taken protective measures to limit liquidity withdrawals.

5️⃣ 2024 Velocore Attack Association: The Velocore vulnerability exploited involved Balancer-style CPMM pools, resulting in a loss of 6.8 million dollars. Balancer's technical architecture was indirectly implicated due to cross-protocol integration.

At the same time, Balancer is still a mainstream DeFi protocol
The recent market has turned even colder 🥶

The scenery here is particularly beautiful

In the environment of continuous decline in the market, the privacy sector tokens continue to rise against the trend

📈DASH is currently priced at 131.35 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 52.71%;

📈ZEN is currently priced at 21.90 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 32.07%;

📈PIVX is currently priced at 0.381 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 60.90%;

📈SCRT is currently priced at 0.2135 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 33.10%;

📈XVG is currently priced at 0.00852 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 25.44%;

📈ZEC is currently priced at 467.12 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 19.38%.

Yesterday's US Region: 📉

· Spot Bitcoin ETF net outflow of 186.5 million USD
· Spot Ethereum ETF net outflow of 135.7 million USD

🚨The Ethereum leader DAT company has seriously gone underwater
But fortunately, there is no leverage or debt crisis, and liquidation will not occur easily

· Bitmine: Holds 3,395,422 ETH (1.188 billion USD), average cost 4,037 USD, unrealized loss 1.82 billion USD;

· SharpLink: Holds 860,299 ETH (301 million USD), average cost 3,609 USD, unrealized loss 93.77 million USD.

When the tide goes out, some will be swimming naked.

Past pessimism does not represent the future
Entering November:

· Bitcoin's average return rate is 42.49%
The median return rate for November is +8.81%
Among the past 12 years, November has shown 8 increases and 4 decreases

· Ethereum's average return rate is 7.08%
The median return rate for November is +3.94%
In the past 9 years, November has shown 5 increases and 4 decreases

Trump mentioned "Jerome 'Too Late' Powell" in his speech in South Korea
causing laughter from business executives and leaders attending the APEC summit

"We will not let the Federal Reserve raise interest rates because of worries about inflation three years from now."

This remark may suggest he acknowledges that inflation could ultimately accelerate. He predicts the U.S. economy will achieve 4% growth in the first quarter of 2026, far above the median forecast of economists surveyed by Reuters.

Thursday's comments highlighted the tension between Trump and the Federal Reserve
Trump criticized Powell for not cutting rates quickly
saying that the Federal Reserve is behind its European counterparts, damaging business confidence

Matrixport: The current short-term market is primarily observing, maintaining patience.

Bitcoin is still in a range-bound fluctuation; in contrast, U.S. stocks have repeatedly set historical highs driven by the AI boom.

There is a certain similarity to the rhythm observed last year: after a prolonged period of low volatility consolidation, prices experienced a relatively rapid upward movement within about three weeks (historical backtracking does not represent the future).

The current narrow fluctuations demand higher patience from traders. The short-term focus is on observation, and the mid-term pattern remains unchanged.

If the Federal Reserve maintains a dovish stance and continues to cut interest rates, the market is more likely to wait for clearer external driving signals.

Similar rhythms have also been commonly seen in history: after prolonged consolidation, volatility tends to be released in a shorter time frame.

"Maji Big 🈹" increases HYPE and ETH long positions again

Total position size exceeds 14 million USD

Current account total floating profit is about 1 million USD

There is actually a company called DAT that buys back stocks with cryptocurrency 😷

Making money from trading cryptocurrency and then buying back stocks???