Crypto柠七

The unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data for November, which will be announced tonight, have a significant variance for November due to the missing prior value for October. Therefore, providing guidance for a slightly higher-than-expected unemployment rate of 4.4% and slightly lower-than-expected data of 50,000 people might be the best option.

Because overly strong data would reduce the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2026, while overly weak data could trigger panic and recession. In fact, this year, the Federal Reserve has little room for decision-making and has been caught in a bind.

Multiple veteran figures in the cryptocurrency circle and senior personnel in the mining sector confirm:
Some mining sites in Xinjiang were concentratedly cleared in November,
Involving 200,000 to 400,000 Bitcoin mining machines (the number is still being verified).

Previously, Reuters exclusively disclosed:
Xinjiang miners resumed mining, causing China's computing power to temporarily rebound to 15–20% globally.

The motivation for resuming work is very clear:
Excessive construction of data centers,
Insufficient demand for AI computing power,
Ultimately turning to gray mining to digest assets.

However, with the upgrade of cryptocurrency regulation by 13 domestic ministries on November 28,
This portion of computing power was rapidly cleared:
Mining machines confiscated, mining sites suspended, and output coins flooded into the market.

This may be one of the important supply-side factors that put continuous pressure on the cryptocurrency market in November.

Conclusion:
This is a structural cleaning of computing power,
Short-term bearish release,
In the medium to long term, computing power will be more concentrated and compliant.
#加密市场观察

The last major event in the financial market in 2025 is the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike.
It is known that the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting on the 18th and 19th.
The market consensus is to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%.
For a considerable amount of time, Japanese interest rates have been close to 0.
Many investors and Japanese institutions are engaging in 'yen carry trades'.
In simple terms, it means borrowing yen to invest in U.S. Treasuries or U.S. stocks.

Now that Japan is starting to raise interest rates, it may even begin an interest rate hike cycle,
leading to an increase in borrowing costs for yen, and the profit margin for carry trades disappearing.
Although 0.75% is still a relatively low interest rate level,
it will enhance market expectations for yen appreciation.

With the dual boost of rising interest rates and expectations of yen appreciation,
it will cause liquidity shocks in the market in the short term.
Japan is one of the countries with the highest holdings of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stocks globally.
If the interest rate only rises to 0.75%, it can be considered already priced in.
The Bank of Japan should not suddenly imply:
'We will raise interest rates again multiple times in 2026.'
This will definitely trigger a sell-off of risk assets and a repatriation of yen.

That would really show no respect to President Trump 😂
On my side, interest rates are being lowered, and on your side, they are being raised = no decrease?
Our revolutionary arm has only been linked for a short time #加密市场观察

$BERA has fallen for 11 consecutive weeks, and it still looks bearish on the weekly chart. This project party is not doing their part, constantly looking for someone to take over, only responsible for selling off, scamming the community. What they lack the least is coins, with annual issuance. 1011 market makers have been liquidated, and there is a large unlock in February, accounting for 59% of the total market value. After that, there will be monthly unlocks. With these sell-offs, the coin price will drop to 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, and the market value will fall to twenty million. As long as there is still trading volume, Binance will not delist it. Believers will ultimately be left with nothing, as pulling up the price requires real money.

$RAVE I don't dare to get in the car anymore, just pouring down and got buried.

$RAVE What is this about, so pulling NB

$BERA Key points face bar, a public chain exchange grand slam, the market value is almost gone, unlocking secretly every few days, one million unlocks smashing the market, it has been smashed down this way, and it hasn't even fully circulated yet? The eating appearance is so ugly, who will the goods behind be given to? It's really a nightmare.

Previously, we advised everyone to exit at highs,
Congratulations, we accurately timed the top!
Actually, it's still the same saying:
Every time a rate cut occurs, it is a short-term high point.
When the benefits are fully realized, it becomes a negative.
History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

The balance sheet reduction is not happening that quickly.
Next year's expected rate cut is only once.
Powell's last hawkish remarks were for the next rate cut.
Powell's dovish comments last night were to prevent a rate cut next time.
Powell still needs to support three times in Congress.

The market is currently most concerned not about interest rate cuts, as they are already 100% priced in, but about 1. Whether the Federal Reserve will announce a quantitative easing plan, commonly known as money printing, and Powell's speech.
The announcement of a money printing plan is possible, and it is estimated that the probability of implementation in March is quite high, depending on economic conditions.
As for subsequent interest rate cuts, it is fairly certain that Powell will likely take a hawkish stance, with a low probability of a rate cut in January. The only variable is the start time of the first money printing plan; if it happens earlier, it would indeed surprise the market.

According to the Coinmarketcap market capitalization data from December 8, 2025
$SOL in 2021 had a market capitalization close to 75 billion with a coin price of 247 USD
Now in 2025, the market capitalization is again close to 75 billion with a coin price of 134 USD

The equivalent of $ETH
In 2022, the market capitalization was close to 380 billion
with a coin price of 3233 USD

Now in 2025, the market capitalization is also close to 380 billion
with a coin price of 3159 USD

Now you all know what you should be investing in!

There are still 22 days left, and 2025 will officially be over.
The market reversal this year has been quite magical.
Physical gold and silver 📈 have outperformed digital gold and silver.
Silver +100%, gold +60%, Shanghai Composite +20%,
while BTC remains weak this year, ETH is down, Strategy -40%.

This is not the failure of crypto,
this is capital actively reducing risks and returning to certain assets.

Cycles never follow beliefs,
they only follow risk appetite.

Truly mature investors
are not the ones who charge the hardest in a bull market,
but those who can still survive in times like these.
#比特币VS代币化黄金

RWA, asset tokenization, transparent settlement, on-chain risk management...
These concepts that have been repeatedly mentioned over the past few years have finally reached the table of the "national-level financial framework."
This means three things:
🔥 1. The core logic of the capital market needs to be rewritten
Securities, bonds, and assets will flow in on-chain form; the future Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange will essentially be "running on-chain."
🔥 2. The crypto industry is standing at the "infrastructure-level opportunity" for the first time
Not a meme, not a hot narrative, but the fundamental transformation of the entire American financial system.
🔥 3. The next two years are a true watershed in the cycle
Embracing crypto is the trend,
Embracing on-chain is the direction,
Embracing tokenization is certainty.
In short:
Crypto is not a fringe technology, but is about to become the main system of global finance.
This is not FOMO,
This is the real timeline spoken by the SEC Chairman himself.
Are you ready?
The next 24 months will be more turbulent than the past 10 years—and even more worthwhile. #美SEC推动加密创新监管

It is a good thing that RWA has been blocked in the country

The RWA I encountered in the mainland
Can be said to be 99% unreliable

They are either thinking about turning bad assets into debt
Or they are just trying to make a deal.

The weight of this sentence is very significant.
Have the rules changed? Regulators never say "the future" unless the direction has been internally confirmed.
This means that the attitude of U.S. regulators towards crypto is undergoing a "structural change":
From questioning → acceptance → participation → redefining the rules.

If even the SEC is expecting that crypto will become the "financial backbone",
then what really needs to be reassessed is not the short-term market,
but which projects can connect to the future global financial system and which can only remain at the speculative level.

This means:
🚀 Future compliance + valuable crypto projects will become financial infrastructure
⚠️ Speculative and short-term trading projects will be marginalized
Short-term fluctuations are just noise; the real opportunity lies in structural trends.

In the next 3–5 years, crypto is not just a story of ups and downs,
it is a story of rewriting the global financial landscape.
Now is the time to choose the track and value, rather than emotions.

#Crypto #美SEC推动加密创新监管

In the cryptocurrency world, a 20% drop is called volatility
A 50% drop is called a correction
A 90% drop is called a washout
A 1% rise is called takeoff
A 10% rise is called a bull comeback

I heard that a 10% drop in stocks makes the sky fall?

Held at #Tsinghua University #以太坊中国高校行
Two sentences to summarize:

1. Focus on the upcoming Ethereum upgrade: Fushaka upgrade

2. Pay attention to privacy narratives ➕ AI
$ETH

$BTC Bitcoin ETF outflow amount recently hit a historic high, far exceeding the inflow amount, indicating that more retail investors are cashing out, which is also the main reason for BTC's continuous decline over the past two months.

I also find it quite amazing that USDC started to increase its issuance around November 20, and the neighboring stablecoin USDT has also seen a rise.
According to Lookonchain data, USDC has cumulatively increased by 10 billion in the past month, while CMC data shows a significant rise in USDT as well.

Who will be the major demanders?
Is there anyone knowledgeable who can explain?

$USDT $USDC

Notice ⚠️: PCE data meets expectations
No impact, inflation is no longer a concern
December Fed rate cut is a done deal
Weekend repairs
$BTC can only see 899 904 910 for now
The overall trend is still downward,
This round of not successfully escaping the peak
Still the same saying: reduce positions on highs, the last chance to escape
Next week the interest rate decision will be made, looking forward to a wonderful performance
#美联储重启降息步伐

The interest rate meeting is next week!!
The probability of a rate cut in December is already very high!!
Now the market is starting to bet on whether there will be a rate cut in January.
At least there shouldn't be too many surprises before the meeting.
Those with positions can reduce holdings in batches at a high price in the next few days.
It's a bear market; once the rate cut is implemented, there will be another round of corrections.
However, I still hope that it won't be replayed.
$BTC 90000 nearby is a good support level.