甜梦讲币

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反弹5浪？
1.近期BTC应该是最弱势的主流品种，贵金属因为欧美关税战的不确定性成了资金避风港持续火爆，美股指尽管也盘整了2个月但依旧是接近历史新高
2.BTC日线的中短期EMA已经接近，2个多月的盘整筹码区域一致，并且高低点也在不断抬高，只要不跌破84000，未来几周有机会走出反弹第五浪

BTC ETH目前的操盘主力走出了不一样的思路.
ETH主力积累了11亿资金了,反而BTC几乎没什么积累.
一个强烈看多,一个袖手旁观,后面会怎么走呢?

目前ETH是可以考虑做多的,前提是一定带上止损.
ETH第一支撑2868,第二支撑2800,跌破2784止损.

币圈沉浮，本金为王，对新手而言，先守稳基本盘，再谈赚收益才是硬道理。这八大炒币口诀，藏着币市生存的核心逻辑，吃透了少踩坑、稳迈步！

一、套牢补仓只求本，贪利追盈必深套

币市踩雷被套实属常态，此时补仓的核心是保本离场，而非妄想扭亏为盈。贪心追利只会越陷越深，保住本金，才有后续再战的资本。

二、水面平静藏暗流，小涨之后防大波

币市看似风平浪静、小幅慢涨，实则暗流涌动。别被眼前的小利迷惑，保持警惕，随时提防后续的大震荡、大回调。

三、大涨之后必回调，K线三角见端倪

币价短期暴涨切莫狂喜，涨势过后必有回调，这是币市常态。若K线多日走出三角形态，便是行情反转的明显信号，及时警惕不踩坑。

四、买阴不买阳，卖阳不卖阴，逆市择机方盈利

新手切忌追涨杀跌，买币宜选阴跌企稳时，卖币当在阳升冲高际。反散户思维操作，才能在震荡中抓住盈利机会。

五、不冲高不卖，不跳水不买，横盘坚决不交易

冲高时别急着止盈，谨防后续继续拉升；跳水时莫盲目抄底，避免抄在半山腰；横盘震荡期无明确趋势，管住手静观其变，远比盲目操作更重要。

COAI, AIA, MYX, and RIVER are four secondary markets with highly speculative coins that may not align with the majority's judgment of value investing. However, there aren't many coins in the crypto world that are truly worth value investing, so here are a few thoughts:
👇

1. High concentration of chips = High control by the market maker

Do you think chip concentration is a bad thing? That may be true for those who want to hold long-term for value investing.

But for those who engage in speculation, chip concentration is simply a great thing!

For coins with dispersed chips, if you pull up 10%, there are 1000 retail investors waiting to sell. For coins with concentrated chips, the market maker can easily maneuver between positions, guiding the market as they wish and can always go to the moon.

When the market maker wants to push the price up, do they need to worry about retail investors selling against them? No, they don't. The only concern is other large whales. Typically, these new coins are deeply tied to the market makers and exchanges, with very few chips available outside.

In this case, the market maker is the only short seller. As long as they don't sell, the coin can soar to the moon. What we are betting on is whether the market maker wants us to make money.

2. No or few airdrops = No free riders selling off

Not issuing airdrops means that everyone on board has spent money. This achieves a uniform cost basis, and everyone’s cost is similar (except for the market maker themselves), eliminating any selling pressure from zero-cost holders, making all calculations predictable.

Without airdrops, every seller in the market is either cutting losses or taking profits. This makes the candlestick chart very authentic, allowing the market maker to easily gauge retail investors' psychology, making it light in the market and easier to push up.

3. Only list on Binance Alpha/Contracts, accumulate opposing positions

This is the essence of the essence!

Do you think only listing contracts is a bad thing? NONONO! Have you considered that this is orchestrating a scheme? Contracts do not focus on chips but rather on capital strength. The market maker controls 90% of the spot market, and with the double insurance of contracts, they can always keep the token price in their hands.

Do people think trading cryptocurrencies can make money? I think it can!

But the premise is — understand the rules, strong execution
If you understand these, perhaps you can avoid detours:

The three iron rules of trading cryptocurrencies, remember them well!

1. Never chase highs, FOMO is the trap for retail investors
When others are frantically grabbing, you need to stay calm;

When the market is in panic and falling, that's the opportunity for smart people to enter quietly.

2. Don't lock yourself in with heavy positions, operations need to be flexible
The market is ever-changing, don't put all your eggs in one basket;

Reserve some flexible positions to seize the next opportunity.

3. Full positions = retail investors, diversified positions are the way to go
Full positions block your exit, risks go off the charts;

Reasonable diversification is the key to seeking victory amidst volatility.

Don't ignore these tips:

1. Don't act rashly during a sideways market, keeping your patience is the way to profit
Sideways markets test your patience, many rush to act and end up losing;

Stay composed, and your profits won't be washed away.

2. Key intervals are often the prelude to major market movements
High or low sideways for too long isn't a dead market but a buildup of momentum;

Wait for a strong volume candle, that's the signal to enter.

3. Building positions is like constructing a pyramid, entering in batches is more prudent
Don’t go all in at once, build positions in layers and increase gradually,

This can both reduce risk and stabilize your mindset.

4. Don’t clash with violent fluctuations, strategies should follow the market
Don't be greedy when prices surge, don’t be timid when they drop sharply;

Controlling emotions is the dividing line between experts and retail investors.

Trading cryptocurrencies is not gambling, it's a combination of strategy + discipline + mindset cultivation.

Remember: Those who make money never rely on luck, but on understanding and execution!

热度在，可以一波一波持续炒作，热度过去，没办法炒作。

clawd 龙虾ai助手的热度是持续性的，昨天也是突然就爆了。

所以可以在里面不断波段，因为讨论度一时半会不会衰减很厉害。

然后我研究了dale，这个仓鼠，核心是野兽先生带的流量，但是没持续性，没全网讨论的程度，一笔带过？

高度可能也受限于clawd
🤔
，虽然不是同一赛道的。

也可能这玩意不像ai助手那样，人人都可以掺和两句，太高大上了，除了专业领域的，普通人没讨论的必要。

另一个角度出发，pump目前有很多支线，dale算是自己独立的一个分支，每个分支能长多高要靠自己了。

dale三角要选方向了，大家应该目前是在赌马斯克的预期。

∴普通人带来的全网讨论clawd≈马斯克发帖带来的注意力

Currently, from the daily chart perspective, there was a significant drop yesterday with panic funds fleeing, and the bearish forces are strong. However, in terms of the pattern, it has not truly broken below 87000. The MACD pattern shows that the selling side is actually weakening; the overall trend is downward, and we just need to wait for a rebound to short.
On the four-hour chart, short-term trades can be made near 87000, with a stop loss at 86000 and a target around 89000.
From the 3-day chart perspective, it has broken the trend line, and the moving averages have crossed bearishly below the lifeline, indicating a need for a second retest. The MACD has crossed bearishly, and it will still experience fluctuations and corrections. There is support around 85000, and since there hasn't been a significant increase in volume, a retest can be used for long positions. The larger cycle trend is downward, and the strategy is to set up for a long short during the rebound.

Remember, memes are part of the attention economy. When the market is good, attention is higher; when the market is bad, attention is low.

The penguin pumps, Marc Andreessen changes backgrounds, the White House supports, Elon Musk supports, various official endorsements; essentially, one coin after another can be issued, but they are all the same thing. The attention is focused on the penguin first, and then the events follow, demonstrating strong manipulation.

The clawd lobster pump to 10m is also a reflection of attention. I see that even the divine fish are discussing the lobster, this Claude AI assistant, which has a large spread and engages a crowd that exists between web2 and web3.

How to capture this popularity? It's quite mysterious; the real sensory experience is more important.

On BSC, for meme coins, some people use WeChat index, which is essentially a branch; on PUMP, it's trending on TIKTOK.

For the SOL chain, everyone uses Google global index, the level of attention from major official accounts, etc.

《BSC只能邪修了》

简单总结下， bsc上的好题材二段打法也失败了。
整体流动性不足以支持二段起来
而且庄家会留点筹码，准备二段出
本质上还是流动性不足，导致标的始终处在前段
叙事参与定价的成分很低
大盘还在往下走

BSC上的策略呢
龙头长拿不行，基本都是亏的
上了alpha赌perps也不行，宽进严出
内盘跟单，不行，等于自杀
内盘通过题材选筹，其实也不行
前期二段不行，流动性起不来
只有大叙事，扒火车
但现在sol的狗庄来了，扒火车的过程中
在50-100万任何一个区间都能断头

几乎所有的正路都堵死。
堵死的意思是负ev，多玩两把就必亏
几乎只能邪修了

Bitcoin has once again formed a death cross, failing to timely recover the EMA 10-day line and the 20-day line for three consecutive days. Referencing the $92000 resistance level, this is a very bad sign. Currently, the daily bearish trend is evident, and it is highly likely that the price will break below the $88000 support level and test the $84000 support level again. Keep an eye on these two support levels.

BTC

From the 4H and higher level trends, the recent price has been repeatedly suppressed by the 4HMA250. Its overall operational framework is still within the suppression range formed by the previously mentioned: M-shaped top neck line, daily MA30, and the declining three methods structure.

Taking the 4HMA250 as a reference point, the upper suppression structure is dense, which does not support bulls to directly gamble; it only allows for high selling after producing an upward departure. This is the basic situation at a larger scale.

From the 1H and lower levels, the long cycle structure resonates with the views mentioned above, and under the background of dense suppression, chasing the rise is not allowed. It is still necessary to guard against a decline first, only supporting low buys after different degrees of pullbacks at various levels, with reference points as follows:

Short-term resistance remains at the current position up to 90799 (4HMA250), keeping an eye on short-term strength and weakness as a reference, not prioritizing trades.
The area of selling pressure is concentrated at 92150~93220 (after reaching, small-level slow rises for high sells, or considering low buys after a pullback to 91250),

Short-term support is at 88710~87990 (aggressive type, referring to yesterday's model for quick in and out), with the second support at 85770~84655 (can be placed), previous large-scale hanging orders remain effective.

DASH has always respected the EMA21 moving average.

After breaking through and pulling back, it supported the rebound.

After falling below and rebounding, it pressed down on the decline.

Now DASH is nearing the daily EMA21 again.

Around the moving average, wait for an intraday oversold condition, find a position to go long, aim for the previous high on the rebound, and set the stop loss below the moving average.

According to Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate is still quite low, and the main selling is still from short-term investors. Investor sentiment remains relatively stable, and there are no signs of deepening panic. After all, from the current situation, the crisis of tariffs has been resolved. Now it seems to be a strong retaliation against Trump, and hopefully, it can be resolved quickly.
The chip structure is still very stable, and there are no signs of collapse. Moreover, more chips are gathering around $90,000. Currently, the gathering between $83,000 and $92,000 is a bit excessive, and it is also evident that the willingness of holders to sell is relatively low.

Although the market has not been very good these past two days, the trend of $MSVP is quite stable, the structure is clear, and there hasn't been a significant drop in volume. There aren't many projects that can hold up in a weak market.

The key is that we are still in the early stages; the official airdrop has not been issued yet, but early participation rewards have already been announced:
Holding tokens + whitelisting gives you a chance to receive the airdrop and can also unlock platform permissions in advance.

Btc has been continuously declining in the short term, with signs of stabilization at a lower level. During the early hours, a spike occurred but was largely recovered, so a period of short-term fluctuation will likely build a bottom. On the 4-hour level, one can wait for a divergence to enter a long position.

The target entry point is approximately around 88500u for long orders, which is near the dividing line of the second bottom exploration. For defense, one can refer to the recent short-term low. If successfully entered, there could be a profit of around three thousand points or more, which is worth a gamble.

What is narrative?
In a nutshell, narrative is not about what this cryptocurrency does,
but rather about what reasons the market is willing to assign it a value? Or to put it another way, when you buy this cryptocurrency, you are not asking if it can make money, but rather if others are willing to pay for this story?

Once you have this story,
what you need to do is not to immediately take a position, but to immediately ask yourself, can this story ferment? Is there a main player involved? This is the hardest point to judge, and it requires more understanding and trial and error to accumulate experience over the long term, because the primary market never simply gives money for a correct story, but depends on whether someone is willing to continuously buy into this story. You must first understand one thing: not all narratives are qualified to ferment.

So what constitutes a fermentable narrative? This can actually be broken down into three layers, and the order cannot be mixed up.

The first layer: there is no one promoting it, no main player, only emotions. The first to buy in the primary market is definitely emotions. Whether there are emotions depends fundamentally on whether this story can be quickly understood, quickly spread, and quickly internalized. Usually, this only happens in a wave, quickly rising and then quickly falling back after the emotions dissipate. Once emotions calm down, everyone just takes a bite and runs, without any momentum.

The second layer: observe the main player. Emotions can only spark the fire, but whether the fire can grow depends on whether someone continues to add fuel. The role of the main player is not to pump the price but to control the rhythm. When to pump, when to stop, when to give a correction, and when to push again.

The third layer: observe whether there are big players with expectations to promote it. Or co-founders on the Solana chain, like Old Ma, etc. This step is the last layer and also the most important one. Its role is not to create a narrative, but to amplify an already existing narrative, with funds willing to take turns buying in.

So ultimately, the essence of narrative is never about how well the story is told,
but rather whether funds are willing to pay for this story?