两线定乾坤

If found illegal, risk assets like Bitcoin, the Nasdaq will soar, and gold will plummet.
It is anticipated that the current cited regulations are illegal, so the judgment will be overturned. Then, other regulations will be cited again, continuing to collect taxes.～Again➡️is a double kill.

【Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Upper Limit) in the U.S. as of December 10】
Previous Value: 4.00% Expected: 3.75% Published Value: Not Released
Jin10 Data Importance Rating: ★★★★★
Data Release Time: December 11, 2025 03:00

$PAXG Spot gold fell nearly $30, breaking below $4180; gold concept stocks declined, with Kaldoren Mining and AngloGold Ashanti falling over 3%. Russia announced it will restrict gold bar exports starting in 2026.

Come on

Reorganize it again, coming again tonight

Shorting coking coal 2603@空军司令-黑哥

Bat

Bat

$BAT This is just unpredictable

Pancake bottom 7.4, pin insertion 6.9$BTC

Liquidity crisis compounded by sudden interest rate hikes before Old Powell's departure...

Don't be naive! Bitcoin has revealed a "death spiral" of volatility, and the ultimate harvesting point has been exposed! Experienced players have quietly laid out positions in these two areas…

Too many people are still using linear thinking to speculate on the market—you have no idea what perilous situations lie ahead! According to my projections, this bear market is likely to culminate in the 8.3-8.5 range, but don't expect a smooth decline; the market is brewing a complex sideways trap comparable to a "meat grinder!"

The short-term script has already emerged:
1️⃣ The final drop will approach around 9.1
2️⃣ Then a "hellish" labyrinth of volatility will initiate, with rebound heights possibly piercing the 11.8 high
3️⃣ Ultimately, it will drop towards 8.3 and below with depths of 6-9% in a manner akin to boiling a frog

Important reminder: Those who follow me on Weibo should remember that three days ago I shared a golden rule:

"Those proficient in wave theory can predict sideways volatility, but even if you see it coming, the complexity and sluggishness of the market still torment the heart. When the market begins to doze off, the wisest choice is to put away your chips and go on vacation—you can never wake up a market pretending to sleep."

After ten years of bloodshed, I have realized the best survival rule during sideways periods: only eat fish heads and abandon the fish body! In this round of adjustment, the only worthy move is to buy when it drops to around 9.1; for the subsequent "volatility purgatory," just close the software, brew some tea, and wait patiently for the final hunting moment to arrive.

$BTC

$PAXG
Gold bulls and bears are fiercely fighting at 3985! Hold above to sprint to 4045, if lost, then down to 3943

The key watershed for the gold bulls and bears battle! The 3985 line determines the outcome

Core of the market

The current international spot gold market is at a crucial crossroads. The core pivot point at 3985 USD/ounce has become the 'lifeline' that determines the fate of short-term bulls and bears. The market is accumulating strength here, waiting for a directional breakthrough.

High probability scenario: Chase the victory

As long as the gold price can firmly hold above 3985, market sentiment will lean towards bullish. In this case, the market is expected to push up to the first target of 4030. Once successfully broken, the next more important challenge will be 4045. At that time, the market will gain further upward momentum, even looking towards the stronger resistance area of 4073.

Low probability scenario: Defensive counterattack

However, the trading market always needs to be prepared for another possibility. If the gold price unfortunately falls below the bullish fortress of 3985, it means that the short-term upward structure may be disrupted. At that time, the market may trigger a technical correction, with the downward target initially looking to 3962, and if bearish forces persist, it may further test support at 3943.

Technical highlights

From a technical indicator perspective, the RSI currently shows that market momentum is lacking, indicating that both bulls and bears appear to be cautious at this critical position. This 'hesitation period' usually means that the upcoming breakthrough will have stronger directionality and intensity. Traders should closely monitor the test results of prices at key levels.

Overview of bullish and bearish strategies

· Bullish strategy: Remain bullish above 3985, target 4030 -> 4045.
· Bearish strategy: If it falls below 3985, consider switching to a short-term bearish outlook, target 3962 -> 3943.

Summary of key levels

· Resistance reference: 4030, 4045, 4073
· Support reference: 3985, 3962, 3943


'Gold's digital shadow' PAXG presents a rare value gap, the current price of 3850 may be an excellent bottom-fishing opportunity!

$PAXG
Gold's shocking plunge is just a washout? Wall Street is in an uproar, but the bulls are secretly positioning!

Recently, international gold prices have staged a 'high dive', but is this sell-off a trend reversal or a bullish interlude? Top strategists on Wall Street are fiercely debating, revealing the undercurrents in the gold market.

The bears believe the adjustment is not yet over. 'Gold price momentum is exhausted', with three major factors pressing down: the easing of China-U.S. relations, wavering hawkish statements from Powell shaking interest rate cut expectations, and institutions taking profits. They warn that the $4000 mark may face another test.

The bulls, however, firmly believe this is a great opportunity. They are astonished that the gold price could hold the crucial support at $3895 amid the wave of selling, calling it a 'strong signal'. They sharply point out that this is merely a technical correction caused by position adjustments, and the underlying logic of gold remains as solid as a rock.

Behind this tug-of-war between bulls and bears is the market's repricing of monetary policy and risk aversion sentiment. As U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen, gold is indeed under pressure in the short term; however, if global uncertainty heats up again, new buying may ignite instantly.

$3850 bottom fishing PAXG - when spot gold volatility intensifies, PAXG, which is pegged to physical gold, may provide a more precise bottom-fishing tool.

【Gold Prices Surge with Hidden Secrets】The Bottom is Not Yet Solidified; Blindly Pursuing Long Positions is a Great Taboo! 3850 May Be an Excellent Bottom Fishing Opportunity for PAXG

The rebound momentum of gold is weak, and the road to the bottom is long and obstructed.

On Friday, international gold prices continued the rebound from this week's low (below 3900 USD), achieving two consecutive daily gains. However, the foundation of this rise is not solid due to the lack of sustained buying support, and gold prices are still suppressed below the key level of 4050 USD.

Long and Short Positions Intertwined, Gold Prices Trapped in a "Tug-of-War"

Currently, the market is in a "chaotic period" of intense competition between long and short forces:

· Bullish Side: Concerns about the potential long-term shutdown of the US federal government are intensifying, which undoubtedly casts a shadow over the economic outlook of the United States. As a result, the strong rally of the dollar, which reached a new high since early August after the Federal Reserve's meeting, has been hindered, cooling market risk appetite and providing some support for traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
· Bearish Side: The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday as expected and released a significant signal — planning to stop reducing the balance sheet as early as December, which means the era of "quantitative tightening" is about to end. However, at the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell poured cold water on the situation, clearly stating that the rate cut in December is not guaranteed. This "hawkish rate cut" rhetoric significantly boosted dollar bulls, becoming a "ceiling" that suppresses gold prices. In addition, signs of easing in US-China trade relations have boosted global market confidence, which has also somewhat weakened gold's appeal as a safe haven.

Market Outlook and Strategy: Patience is More Precious than Gold

In summary, although gold prices have shown a technical rebound after falling from historical highs at the beginning of the month, it is clearly too early to assert that this round of deep adjustment has ended and that preparations for a new meaningful upward trend are in place.

Therefore, the wisest course of action now may be to remain patient and wait for the market to provide clearer directional signals. Before strong and sustained buying pushes gold prices to effectively break through key resistance levels, investors should treat the current rebound with caution and avoid blindly chasing highs.
$PAXG

Gold Plummets! Bearish Target Aiming at 3943
International spot gold PAXG has seen a short-term decline, with technical indicators signaling a bearish trend. The RSI indicator shows that upward momentum has weakened, and the 4028 level has become a dividing line for bulls and bears.

Trading Strategy:

· If it stays below 4028, it is advisable to short, targeting 3964 and then 3943
· Only a breakthrough above 4028 can reverse the downward trend, aiming for resistance at 4045

Key Levels:
Resistance: 4028/4045/4073
Support: 3964/3943/3915

Opportunity Reminder: With the pullback in gold, buying PAXG at 3850 or positioning for digital gold could be a good opportunity.

$PAXG

$PAXG
Golden bull market takes a breath! Institutions collectively call: Await global monetary easing, a perfect buying point at 3800 points emerges!

International gold prices have recently retreated from high levels, pausing the bull market! Many institutions agree that this pullback is actually a "healthy adjustment" and is a great opportunity for positioning.

Technically, short-term warnings have been issued. Trade Nation points out that gold prices need to return above 4100 USD to regain bullish momentum, with daily MACD indicating a rebound in downward momentum. Saxo Bank bluntly states that this year's peak may have already formed, and the next significant rise may have to wait until 2026.

However, institutions generally emphasize that this is by no means the start of a bear market. The head of research at Capitalight clearly states that the current situation is merely a corrective decline, with the 50-day moving average around 3750 USD becoming an important testing point. Despite ongoing macro risks, the long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic.

UBS's assessment is particularly crucial: If gold prices continue to dip, it is indeed a great opportunity to accumulate gold! Their report clearly states that the core logic driving gold has not changed at all—global monetary policy is shifting towards easing, inflation risks, and political uncertainties continue to brew. They maintain a target price of 4200 USD and emphasize that if prices drop to around 3700 USD, it will constitute a very attractive buying point.

Now is the time to be patient! Observing global central banks beginning a rate-cutting cycle, once gold prices pull back to around 3800 USD, it is an opportunity not to be missed for bottom fishing. The long-term bullish pattern for gold remains unchanged, and this adjustment is precisely to build momentum for the next round of increases.

$PAXG
The golden "streak curse" has emerged! History reveals a shocking pattern: the more it rises, the more severe the pullback?

History is sending a warning signal - the crazy rise of gold is often accompanied by deeper fatigue.

Data shows that since 1978, spot gold has only experienced three "nine consecutive rises", and has never achieved the myth of "ten consecutive rises". Financial analyst Eric L.'s research reveals a "streak curse": after a continuous rise of 7 weeks or longer, the return rate of gold prices is likely to turn negative.

More startlingly, within a week after the streak ends, the median drop in gold prices reaches 3.3%; after four weeks, the drop expands to 4.2%; and after twenty weeks, the drop further climbs to 6.1%. Amazingly, the probability of negative returns in the short term is as high as 82.3%-100%! This means that after the frenzy, a weak performance within nearly twenty weeks is almost a historical certainty.

However, this pullback is more due to technical profit-taking rather than fundamental deterioration. The current expectations for loose monetary policy and inflation worries remain, and the recent decline may instead create a "golden pit".

Investors should keep in mind: although the long-term trend has not changed, the lessons of history tell us that maintaining calm after the frenzy is the key to seizing opportunities amid fluctuations in the gold market.

$PAXG
Precious metals show signs of a crash before 2006! Late November may become a critical period for PAXG's plummet, and the $4000 defense line may be breached.

History is sending warning signals! The current technical pattern of the precious metals market is astonishingly similar to the dramatic rise and fall of 2006. Looking back, after a crazy increase of 36%, gold prices nearly erased all gains within a month. If history repeats, this precious metals frenzy may abruptly end in mid to late November.

Technical indicators have sounded the alarm: the gold cycle indicator continues to linger in the extreme overbought zone at 450, and market adjustment pressure is accumulating. PAXG (gold token) is likely to follow the trend of spot gold, and it is expected to break the important psychological level of $4000, possibly dropping to the $3500 support level.

The silver market is also not optimistic. After failing to reach $50, it has shown signs of fatigue, and if gold prices pull back, silver is likely to follow suit and drop to the $40 gap. Platinum and mining stocks are expected to face pressure simultaneously, and the entire precious metals sector is at risk of reaching a temporary peak.

For investors, the coming weeks will be crucial. This time window in mid to late November may become a turning point for the market, with severe volatility potentially on the horizon. It is advisable to closely monitor market dynamics and prepare for risk management to avoid heavy losses during this anticipated adjustment.

$PAXG
Alert: Friday data may trigger a plunge in PAXG! The $4000 support level is at risk of being breached.

The market is at the center of a perfect storm brewing, and the safe-haven allure of gold may face a severe test. Unlike any moment in history, the dollar-dominated fiat currency system is experiencing an unprecedented crisis of trust— the aftereffects of the severe inflation during the pandemic are still manifesting, and the frequent asset freezes during geopolitical conflicts have further exposed the structural vulnerabilities of the fiat system.

However, this time gold may not replicate its past glory. If Friday's key U.S. stock data reinforces the narrative of “persistent high inflation—more hawkish Federal Reserve,” the market's panic over liquidity may overshadow its distrust of fiat currency. More critically, if the following scenarios resonate around 2026: the Federal Reserve is forced to continue tightening after the midterm elections, fiscal policy shifts to significantly cut spending, or even Congress begins to push for “sound money” reforms—then a gold depression that differs from traditional understanding may be on the horizon.

The real turning point is that the “reform optimism” that has dominated the bull and bear transitions of gold over the past fifty years has vanished. Now, although the problems of the fiat currency system are deeper, substantive reforms are nearly impossible to achieve within the current political landscape. This means that the so-called “fifth collapse” may not manifest as gold prices falling from high levels, but rather enter a long, slow, and structurally differentiated new price discovery phase.

If Friday's data further confirms the path of “tightening return,” PAXG is likely to be the first to break below the psychological threshold of $4000 under liquidity pressure—this may not be the beginning of another round of collapse, but rather the prologue to a new paradigm shift.