The structure is starting to resemble a head and shoulders, and the market, as always, keeps us in suspense without providing conditions for a trade.
The left shoulder and head are quite clearly visible.
What is forming now looks more like an attempt to gather the right shoulder: a weak pullback, without momentum and without volume.
The key point is not the shape of the figure.
But how the price will behave in the neck area: - will there be acceptance below the zone; - will there be initiative from the seller, rather than just inertia of movement. So far, this is just an observation, not a confirmed pattern. The market is in a decision phase, and the next impulse will provide more information than any hypothesis right now.
I've been in the market for 4 years. Over this time I've gone through the full cycle of a trader: - quick money, - euphoria, - mistakes, - and painful losses.
The market quickly teaches the most important lesson: It's not the smartest people who make money, but the most disciplined.
I don't trade emotions and don't chase every impulse. My focus is on zones, market expectations, liquidity, macro factors, and psychology.
Here I publish: • thoughts before movement, not after; • 'if/else' scenarios; • observations on BTC and the market as a whole; • conclusions from my own mistakes and decisions.
No signals. No promises. No '100%'.
The market is not a chart. The market is mindset and responsibility for your own decisions.
If this approach resonates with you - you're in the right place.
$ZEC is at a critical level where the market is forced to make a decision. The highlighted area is former support that has turned into resistance on the higher timeframe. A classic selection zone.
It is here: - weak bounces are often sold - and real reversals must confirm themselves
For a short-term reversal to form, the price needs to break this level and hold above it, not just leave a shadow. Without acceptance of price above the zone, any bounce remains corrective and vulnerable to further declines.
Until clear confirmation appears, this area should be viewed as resistance, not as a reversal signal.
$XAG Silver has updated its historical maximum while maintaining an impulsive growth structure. The current movement is accompanied by expansion and increased market attention, which is typical for the final stage of the impulse.
It is important to understand: corrections rarely start immediately from historical highs. The market needs to take liquidity above to close late short positions and create conditions for further redistribution.
The liquidity map shows that above current levels, there remains a dense cluster of orders, and it is logical that the price may be pulled there before the cooling phase begins.
After this, the scenario becomes more obvious - a natural correction, likely in sync with gold, as has happened repeatedly before.
Current context: - new ATH recorded - impulse is maintained - liquidity above has not yet been taken
The key question now is not where the "peak" is, but how the market will behave after capturing liquidity: - will there be acceptance of new prices - or will the correction and balance phase begin
$XAU Gold continues its movement towards updating ATH, maintaining an impulse growth structure.
The price is in an expansion phase, where the market is actively gathering liquidity above, and the movement is becoming increasingly obvious to most participants.
The liquidity map shows a significant layer of orders above the current values - the market is reaching for these levels, which is logical within the trend.
However, such obviousness often creates conditions for a cooling phase.
It's important to understand: infinite growth does not exist. The further the price moves away from the base zones, the higher the likelihood of a correction or deep pause, even if the global trend remains bullish.
Current context: - upward impulse preserved - price is operating in a zone of increased liquidity - the market is close to an overheated state
The next key question is not 'will we go higher', but how the market will behave after the liquidity is removed: - will new prices be accepted - or will a phase of correction and redistribution begin #GOLD
‼️ #TRUMP ‼️ Trump is suing JPMorgan for 5 billion dollars
- Donald Trump has filed a lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and CEO Jamie Dimon, accusing the bank of politically motivated "debanking" and blocking accounts.
‼️ $BTC ‼️ Currently, there is almost a perfect balance of positions in Bitcoin: - Long - 49.3% - Short - 50.7% The market is not skewed - the crowd is not on one side, which often happens before breaking out of the range. In the last 24 hours, $196.5M has been liquidated, with longs suffering more: - Long - $130.4M - Short - $66.1M
This indicates hidden downward pressure and a gradual clearing of excessive optimism. According to the liquidity map, the price is squeezed between key clusters: - $91.4K-$92K above - $88.5K-$87K below
In such conditions, the market rarely stays in the center - movement usually starts towards the nearest liquidity. #BTCVSGOLD
After a prolonged downward movement, the price has entered a phase of slowing decline and formed a local base. The last upward impulse is accompanied by an increase in volume, indicating the emergence of buying interest after a long sell-off.
The structure remains corrective for now, but the market is showing an attempt to break out of the inertial decline and establish itself above the local minimum for the first time in a long while.
The current zone is a reaction area, not a confirmed reversal.
Key reaction zones: - $1.55 - $1.60 - local demand zone from where the rebound started - $1.90-$2.00 - nearest resistance zone - $2.30-$2.50 - upper return zone of the structure
Yesterday we received a reaction of 87.2 — a repeated response from this same zone is possible. But I consider it safer to drop below, in the range of 85–86. There I expect a good, comfortable bounce from the area of large buyers.
Therefore, there is no need to rush — it is better to wait for a confirmed moment. If we do not come to this area, I will look for another setup.
I work from zones with the presence of a large buyer and try to capture the directed movement.
$BTC After a prolonged upward movement, the price transitioned into a phase of sharp correction, breaking through the local upward structure and accelerating downward. The impulse was accompanied by an increase in volume, indicating active position unloading rather than a typical pullback.
The current price is near the key upward trend line on a higher time frame, where the market is attempting to stabilize. This is a decision-making zone - not an entry point.
Below, two demand zones have formed, where buyer initiative previously emerged and a reaction is possible in case of a deeper correction.
Current context:
- the impulsive growth structure is broken
- the market is in a reaction phase after accelerated decline
- priority - confirmation of holding or acceptance of lower prices
Key reaction zones:
- $88,000—$86,000 - the first potential stabilization zone
- $85,000-$83,000 - the lower demand zone
- $96,000-$98,000 - the return zone under resistance
Focus - not on predicting direction, but on how the price will behave at the trend line and in the demand zones. Any movement without confirmation is just a scenario, not a fact.